Thomson Intermedia Share Discussion Threads

[the_basil_of_yentup] 05/4/2005 23:05

Hi Rogid, everyone. This is domyoung99 with a new improved ID.

Decided to reverse tack completely and now going long through the results next Tuesday. Shares have comfortably marked a lower second bottom and although only just touching my 180p target on the bid, have now factored in any disappointment with a rearranged German business model should that be the case. Also, the large holders seem to be holding their powder dry for now following the clumsy end-February trades and hopefully will be more careful in the future.

The bull case for THN is clear - their product is excellent, the dunhumby deal perhaps offering up the holy grail of marketing - solid real time analysis of the return on advertising investment. Compelling. 4% penetration of the large customer base is also compelling. Finally, a string of new hires of experienced sales guys is ... compelling - the product is an easy sell, so I reckon the 30% or so revenue growth implied in the share-price is actually more likely to be 50%. After a period of healthy consolidation, THN can easily push on to 300p in a relatively short time, IMHoO.

[green sand] 21/3/2005 08:35

Thanks Markb and WJ, roll on April!

GS

[wjccghcc] 20/3/2005 23:14

Here it is. Quote from Midas.

"FUND manager Jamie Allsopp is being touted as one of the City's hot new talents. His New Star Hidden Value fund has returned 35% in the past year compared to an average 13% for the average UK growth fund, according to fund research firm Trustnet. The stunning performance puts the Oeic second out of 215 funds.


He is now backing a broad basket of stocks, including Royal Bank of Scotland and HBOS in the FTSE 100, down to a wide range of oil, mining and technology minnows.

...

The fund's largest holding is Thomson Intermedia, which runs a database for clients in advertising, marketing, and public relations. The information reveals the placement of all adverts in various media.

'It's a five to seven-year database,' says Allsopp. 'Rivals can't just generate that out of nothing so there are strong barriers to entry by other firms. It could also roll this out to the rest of Europe and the world.'


He has also backed D1 Oils, which has developed an oil-producing bush which produces much higher yields and lasts longer than other types of oil-producing plants such as rape and linseed.


He also expects the strong performance of mining stocks to continue. A booming Chinese economy has helped fuel demand for natural resources. Allsopp holds Cambrian Mining, Xstrata, Ballarat Goldfields, Van Dieman Mines and Brazilian diamonds. "

[markb] 20/3/2005 21:29

Found it here:

[wjccghcc] 20/3/2005 15:22

Also, there was that article on the New Star fund manager last week. His biggest holding is THN and he is very bullish on the prospects. He said the database would take 7-8 years for a competitor to build and their one can be rolled throughout Europe and the world. Anyone got the link?

[green sand] 20/3/2005 10:17

Just had a week away, nice to see nothing has changed:-)



Regards

GS

[rogid] 19/3/2005 01:02

Thanks Dom, much appreciated. I think given the overhang, bullish PE ratio and anticipated strength of results already factored in, the price has to be very susceptible to any slight negativity. On balance I think it's worth a short.

[domyoung99] 18/3/2005 19:03

Hi Rogid - in response to your q on Ceres Power thread,

Well, my price-target range of 150-180 was almost hit on the back of 3 days of heavy volume in late February so that worked well but since then some big trades went through at the cheap end of the spread and the stock has swallowed them and gone up - so I confess I share your twitchiness. So what would keep me in? Well, there's a newsflow black-out, so only anticipation of results will drive the share up. But otherwise, I am highly bearish on the market and noted that THN got dumped on at the same time as the FTSE250 etc fell sharply. So, given that there is a substantial overhang which seems to get dumped when the market gets sold-off, there is a good chance that this pattern will repeat in the next couple of weeks, perhaps to generate a nice double bottom and set the share up for results. At 180p, the potential for a nasty surprise from the German rejig will be in the price. At the moment, it feels like the market makers are working for the sellers by wafting the price up on almost non-existent buying pressure so would hate to get sucked in on that basis.

Get Corus to make you some nerves ;)

Dom

[markb] 14/3/2005 17:52

There is an article in yesterdays Sunday Times on the company at:

[wjccghcc] 11/3/2005 20:05

Think that's a bit farfetched dy99 - of course it's the asset management side. The shareprice was about 190-200 before the directors and Eaglet were approached to sell a stake to the institutions, at which point the price gapped up to the 220-230 range where these sales were carried out.

In a share where your average daily volume is 10k shares, you really think the trading desk would acquire 870k share to facilitate liquidity!! It's clear CSFB and Morgan Stanley are two of the new institutional investors.

If there is an overhang, it will be Eaglet but it's clear they won't sell below 2 quid - hence why the shareprice gapped up in the first place. I suspect you won't get the entry price you're looking for and the results are now only a month away. Will they be anything other than bullish with earnings expectations exceeded and earnings growth running at 100%?

[domyoung99] 11/3/2005 19:34

I have, of course, read the RNS that CSFB group of companies has a 3% stake, negatively. I suspect it's the trading desk/investment bank taking a position on risk to facilitate liquidity, only they might now be stuck with stock they need to shift. Or it could be CSFB asset management. Reckon it's the former hence overhang risk but I would wouldn't I!

[wjccghcc] 11/3/2005 12:24

And another new institutional buyer reveals themselves.

[domyoung99] 10/3/2005 20:47

Certainly illiquid at the moment - the bid-ask dropped for each of the 3 sell-trades today! Not pleasant with a 5% spread.

[wjccghcc] 10/3/2005 08:37

Not sure charting applies to something as illiquid as THN.

[domyoung99] 09/3/2005 23:36

Hi chaps, back from holiday and pleased to see Thomson is correcting healthily. It is clear that both the big IPO holders that got left high and dry with their stakes - Eaglet and Herald - have been taking advantage of the excessive price movement. Again I must remain bearish whilst this overhang remains - I expect both are looking to reduce their massive over-size positions in a stock they never expected to hold for 5 years. The game is now cat and mouse - there may be buyers, but they see the overhang. There's no incentive to nibble at this unless the whole lot is cleared.

Also note how badly handled the sales by these 2 were, with the big volume caning the stock 23-25th feb, and the light volume on the way back up. This is very bearish and THN could collapse again - and I see a particular risk in this market environment with stocks so over-bought - i.e. a general market correction would likely scare THN down big-time. Additionally THN has bounced back up to the 50 day MA which it viciously broke through which incidently is set to intersect perfectly with the falling 20 day MA. This is very bearish and I expect THN to resume the correction down to the 150-180.

Anyway, what's so great about the upcoming results? The performance for Jan 05 is basically known and irrelevant to the p/e of the stock. Meanwhile, whilst arguably this fall is reflecting some of this, the German business already contributes significantly to forecasts despite the uncertainty. There could be a rude shock - and 210 is too high a price for that - i.e. 150-180 is a range where that risk is mitigated.

Sorry to remain bearish but I find solace in D1 (wow) and also Ceres Power. This is seriously interesting - I boldly describe it as the best fuel cell company in the world so please check out my post on the CWR thread.

[green sand] 09/3/2005 13:30

Another little snippet that shows the worth of THN:-

Advertisers 'lose 7% of all press ads'

Advertisers lost an estimated £220m during 2004, because their adverts failed to appear in UK newspapers or ran with errors, according to KPMG and media monitoring company Thomson Intermedia. This represented 7% of all press adverts.



Regards

GS

[green sand] 08/3/2005 13:16

Thanks for that WJ, will take a look.

Regards

GS

[wjccghcc] 08/3/2005 12:46

Nice spot GS. If you're interested in direct marketing, you might want to take a look at SmartFocus (STF) as well. May be worth waiting for their results on 21/3 to get a better picture.

[green sand] 08/3/2005 12:09

Not sure what's working today, but the link below should take you to a little story that illustrates why the data THN produce is so critical to advertisers. The numbers involved are mega and being able to refine DM (or any otheer type of campaigns using THN is very cost effective.




Good Luck

GS

[green sand] 01/3/2005 19:58

Hark, The Herald has skimmed of the top then! If no other announcement could be a new punter, time will tell. Still fancy being around come April.

Good Luck

GS

[green sand] 25/2/2005 16:50

Been out and about for the last few days, probably a good thing. It has been an interesting few days, I also have to bow to Dom, didn't see 180 myself but he did, good call.

I am still in and at present can't see a reason for not sticking around. Not in a position to top up, inbetween a hard place and Golden at present having probs moving between nominee accounts. Taking longer than getting a yacht around the world!

We should see who has divested could be Eaglet again, and it will be interesting to see who has picked them up.
Once again well done Dom, I will raise a glass to you this evening.

Regards

GS

[wjccghcc] 25/2/2005 15:38

Will add if the offer gets to 180p. Seems like several loose holders got shaken by Wednesday´s falls and didn´t want to see their huge profits dissappear. Trading ahead of expectations, PE for this year of 30 with huge operational gearing and only one competitor. How else are all these new companies advertising on the internet going to monitor what´s going on?

Having said that, well done to Dom who thought they´d come back to 180p before pushing forward again. You called that one right, sir.

[smarm] 25/2/2005 14:53

I can see no reason not to...great product, great management...advertising in good shape...Yep..I'm holding.

S

[ben gunn] 25/2/2005 13:09

Any news or views? I plan to hold until the April results.

Should we double up?