Thomson Intermedia Share Discussion Threads

[domyoung99] 26/1/2005 11:58

Yup - my mistake - I forgot that the UK double counts with the market maker. The shares went to 3 buyers therefore - 1.275m, 300k and 25k. But clearly this placement has now satiated the institutional buy interest - i.e. the extreme upward pressure on the stock has vanished - hence the 16% share-price fall from the top. Any further new institutions are probably going to be disquieted by founder selling - even if it is in the name of liquidity, so with no news flow until April, the shares are likely to slide back to a level where interest is rejuvenated - lets say 25-30x 6p (150-180p).

The reason I am confident that no news will occur in this period is that the German deal is ground-breaking and early stage. The Thomson's will clearly want to see how this deal works out in Germany before deciding how to pursue other markets - whether that be start-up or similar royalty deals. Best not to count your eggs too soon after a straight line rise - the chart clearly shows a retracement under-way with 150p the fibonacci support level.

[wjccghcc] 26/1/2005 11:43

The only thing that bugs me slightly is that I think they rushed out the trading statement because the institution wanted to buy in, the closed period was approaching and the founders didn't want to sell without full disclosure. I wish they'd waited 'til after the year end so we could have had a bit more detail in the statement.

I am however comforted by the fact that none of the other directors who bought recently have been selling. Also, I note the founders at Daniel Stewart (DAN) recently sold a large chunk to satisfy institutional demand and that share price has since gone up 20%.

Hopefully we'll now consolidate around here, unless of course the institution wants to increase their stake further.

As you say, roll on April.

[wjccghcc] 26/1/2005 11:33

Yup, it was the founders at 220p reducing their stakes to 45%. Clearly the new institution really wanted the shares though, since, when combined with last weeks trades, they've bought nearly 10% of the company for 220-230p. If there's a further dip on this trade, then I think I'm buying back the ones I sold.

[green sand] 26/1/2005 11:32

Well its not often I am right but its nice to be wrong again!

So it was the founders that sold 1.6m yesterday! But who bought? They all went straight out again!

In order to satisfy significant new institutional demand and improve the
liquidity position the following directors yesterday sold an aggregate of
1,600,000 ordinary shares of 25p each in the Company ("Ordinary Shares"), as
detailed below:


Director No. Shares Sold Price % ISC

Stephen Thomson 800,000 220.0p 2.78%
Sarah Jane Thomson 800,000 220.0p 2.78%

Following these transactions, Stephen Thomson and Sarah Jane Thomson
respectively hold 6,482,393 and 6,482,394 Ordinary Shares each representing
22.55% of the Company's issued share capital.

All good stuff, roll on April

GS

[green sand] 26/1/2005 11:08

Yes WJ, just re-read my earlier post I should of said that whilst it is possible (not likely) that the founders have sold it was by no means certain.

Somebody has put big bucks in at 230 & 220 and they have done that because they have been in the same shower as you:-) Nothing has changed!

Access to Tesco data, new radio products, Germany and the effect of the sales initiative cannot be fully factored in yet.

I have a very limited exposure to the advertising market but the few contacts that I do have are always looking for confirmation of their actions.

April will bring more info, in the meanwhile I wonder how long the shake will go on, already had one move back and not a buy in sight.

Amazing how todays 30 or so deals totalling 28k of shares can have more effect on the price that yesterdays supposedly 3m of sales?

Have Fun

GS

[wjccghcc] 26/1/2005 10:36

Still with you GS. I did some maths in the shower - they have fixed costs running at 4.5mm. Any revenues above that fall through to the bottom line. Sales this year should be nearly 5-6mm and growing at 50%. If that continues (and their penetration is only 4%), then we're looking at 8-9mm sales next year and a profit of 2-3mm. Add in 50% of German revenues, say 2mm, received as profit and you're looking at 3mm PBT. Don't think tax is payable for a while so gives 10p EPS. Now I think that's a bit overenthusiastic since I'm sure they'll be hiring staff to build up their sales team but you see the potential ...

The more I think abot it, the less likely I think the founders are selling unless their broker has really twiseted their arms!!

[green sand] 26/1/2005 10:23

Well it is now starting to look like a classic "how to shake out the smaller holders".

Can't blame anybody taking a profit, but I do think there are going to be some regrets.

Have Fun

GS

[green sand] 26/1/2005 08:49

Well put WJ,

I would like to add that at present THN have about 4% market penetration, the upside is mega.

Have Fun

GS

[wjccghcc] 26/1/2005 08:34

No, I think 1.6mm was a buy and the other three trades were the corresponding sells (or vice versa). I agree the valuation assumes a lot but the operational gearing here is significant. Assume they make 2p for the year just ended, that's 0.8p in H1 and 1.2p in H2, all from the core UK business. It's hard to work out a trend because they moved to a more conservative revenue recognition model in 2003 but I'd guess that growth rate is increasing given they are focussing more on sales penetration now the technology is in place.

If sales growth stays constant, then operational gearing could add 0.6p for H1 and 0.8p for H2 to give 4.2p for this year. But, then you've got the Tesco clubcard product going live which analyses buying patterns of Tesco customers linked to advertising of the products concerned - don't tell me any advertiser can afford to do without that information! Add 0.5p for this and then add 1p for Germany (where THN get half of the revenues as profit and the market is bigger than the UK) and you're nearly at 6p, even before any other new products or deals along the lines of Germany.

Wouldn't surprise me to see this fall back a bit more but given the spread and the potential, it's not one I want to be out of. Also, the price has been forced up this fast by an institution wanting to buy in, not because people wanted to sell - that also tells me something.

I notice there's no RNS yet. If the founders want to sell, I'd think they'd sell the whole company, but I guess we'll find out soon enough.

[green sand] 26/1/2005 08:17

Whilst the list below shows that it is likely that the deals yesterday have come from the founders, it also shows that it ain't a cast iron certainty. It is also possible that there has been "a buyer to the seller".

This business has been consolidating over the last three years whilst the model has been put in place and proven. It is possible/likely that there will be a retraction following the latest actions but one mention of another deal such as that secured in Germany and the upside would be very quick. I for one do not intend to miss the next move.

The deals should be of a magnitude that results in an RNS so we should see shortly. The founders released 1.4m to Baird which were palced very quickly, the lastest action at 230 & 220 gives an indication of the present institutional market value, unless there is a large individual buyer? Each to their own but it is not my style to dump now and hope to get back in at 180p, when there is every chance of 300p following one announcement.

Major Shareholders
THOMSON S J MRS 7,282,394 25.34%
THOMSON S M ESQ 7,282,393 25.34%
UNICORN ASSET MANAGEMENT 3,053,000 10.62%
HERALD INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT LIMITED 2,771,060 9.64%
HENDERSON GLOBAL INVESTORS 1,000,000 3.48%

* major shareholder data from 13/01/2005

Good Luck

GS

[domyoung99] 25/1/2005 23:35

Looks like 10% of the company in 4 trades (!) - 1.6, 1.275, 0.3, 0.025 all at 220p. I wouldn't argue the 'always a buyer to the seller' if it wasn't insider selling - i.e. they know how much the business can achieve and basically they probably agree with me in thinking that even if 'guidance' forecasts were exceeded, the hopes in the market are a lot higher.

It's all about timing at the end of the day - THN will need to consolidate to grow into this steep valuation and for me, founders selling will take the steam out of the shares quite nicely.

[wjccghcc] 25/1/2005 22:38

It's 1.6mm shares (about 5% of the company) which could just be another part of Eaglet's stake (they hold 2.8mm). Also, THN have just said they'll beat 05 forecasts. Plus for evey seller there is a buyer, so someone thinks these have good potential at this price.

I did the following management thing on Xaar when there were three director sales and the damn things have since gone up 40%!

[domyoung99] 25/1/2005 20:00

The only possible sellers of 3m+ of shares are the founders. I find it odd that they would let go of their controlling shareholding at this stage - I doubt they need the money after the bubble-price IPO, and if they do, then they're spending too much time out of the office!

This is a great little company with an intriguing outlook, but I always sell with management so go short here - clearly the shares are too puffed up to meet 05 results. Should easily get back to 180p level.

[wjccghcc] 25/1/2005 18:47

Wow. Missed those trades. Someone really wants stock. I wonder if the Thomsons would let their stake go below 50% or if they want to ensure they keep control. Interesting times ahead I think :)

Also, the fact that this BB is pretty much just you and me gives me a lot of comfort that this isn't a retail investor driven bubble but something more sustainable. Roll on April.

[green sand] 25/1/2005 17:58

Well WJ, still it continues looks like another 1.6m changed hands today at 220p! I keep waiting for an announcement?

I agree and understand the profit taking, but like you I have an impressive array of winners sold too soon and have no intention of adding THN to that list.

Until the BIG picture changes I will be sticking with this one. THN has a good a potential business model as I have seen for a long time, once it starts to come to fruition people will have to pay attention, mind you a few already have.

Things could drift once this present action is complete but I am quite happy to sit and wait for early April.

GS

[wjccghcc] 25/1/2005 16:34

Looks like you were right GS. Gone up a lot recently and people are taking profits. Can't blame'em really. Still, trading ahead of forecasts and prior to that trading statement the PE is 35 for y/e Jan 06 dropping to 20 for next year which with growth of 300% ain't bad. If you read the interims, you'll see management think the potential has only just been touched on. Another deal like Germany and these will be through 300p very quickly. I've always sold my winners too soon (ASC, AEN) and these aren't a trading stock with this spread, so I'm staying around for the ride and to enjoy my taper relief!!

[green sand] 24/1/2005 13:00

Not sure WJ, would be nice if the same reaction as XNC tho!

Looks like there was a seller dropping 5/6k lots a couple of hours ago and now there appears to be an upward movement? I have no doubt all will become clear eventually:-)

GS

[wjccghcc] 24/1/2005 11:15

I reckon there's a placing underway, hence the markdown to a level where the institutions will take them in volume. Good trading statement ahead of year-end and closed period beginning next week. Probably a director sale (since they own more than 50%) to satisfy institutional demand. After the volatility settles down, should provide a nice base for the share price. Just look what happened to XNC after their placing this morning.

[wjccghcc] 24/1/2005 07:50

Nice trading update just issued ahead of their year-end next week. Doesn't look like Germany has kicked in yet which should provide a significant uplift next year.

Thomson Intermedia

Trading Update


Thomson Intermedia Plc, a leading provider of media intelligence, expects to
report an operating performance ahead of market expectations, before the impact
of the Phantom Share Plan, for the year to 31 January 2005.

During the last quarter the Group has continued to make progress in sales of its
advertising vouching product, and has secured some significant contracts. The
Group has also seen continued growth in its core business product line.

Thomson Intermedia expects to report its preliminary results in early April.

[wjccghcc] 21/1/2005 13:59

Maybe they're taking Friday off? :)

[green sand] 21/1/2005 13:47

Well, WJ, do we think that is it or will we see 3pm Charlie again today? Still no RNS.

Have Fun

GS

[wjccghcc] 20/1/2005 20:03

Actually 125k.

[green sand] 20/1/2005 16:19

And still it continues, more matching deals, all 231/233 area, another announcement must be due

GS

[wjccghcc] 20/1/2005 11:09

And again today. Another 100k at 231p.

[green sand] 19/1/2005 14:11

It doesn't look as if whoever it is has finished, think they had more than the Eaglet announcement and we are on the move again.

GS