Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Thomas Cook LSE:TCG London Ordinary Share GB00B1VYCH82 ORD EUR0.01
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.05p -0.06% 88.80p 88.80p 88.85p 90.25p 88.80p 89.05p 3,743,421.00 14:18:57
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Travel & Leisure 7,812.0 42.0 0.8 111.0 1,298.89

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Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
14:17:5488.801,8371,631.26AT
14:17:5488.80639567.43AT
14:17:5488.801,104980.35AT
14:17:5488.80257228.22AT
14:17:5488.80403357.86AT
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Thomas Cook (TCG) Top Chat Posts

DateSubject
07/12/2016
08:20
Thomas Cook Daily Update: Thomas Cook is listed in the Travel & Leisure sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker TCG. The last closing price for Thomas Cook was 88.85p.
Thomas Cook has a 4 week average price of 77.53p and a 12 week average price of 72.54p.
The 1 year high share price is 124.80p while the 1 year low share price is currently 52.60p.
There are currently 1,462,715,539 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 6,219,371 shares. The market capitalisation of Thomas Cook is £1,301,816,829.71.
06/12/2016
18:34
kumala: http://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/thomas-cook-TCG/share-news/Thomas-Cook-Group-PLC-Thomas-Cook-takes-full-owner/73069246 The share price responded well to the news today. K
20/10/2016
13:53
jonesey3: An intrinsic value calculation for Thomas Cook Group plc (LSE:TCG) shows its 31% undervalued Al Bentley October 20, 2016 I am going to run you through how I calculated the intrinsic value of Thomas Cook Group (LSE:TCG) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounted them to the value today. Discounted Cash Flow or DCF is a direct valuation technique that values a company by projecting its future cash flows and then discounting them to todays money. It sounds complicated, but actually it is quite simple! Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model. Please also note that this article was written in October 2016 so be sure check out the updated calculation. View our latest analysis for Thomas Cook Group I’m using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company’s growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have perpetual stable growth rate. To start off with we need to foresee the next 5 years of cash flows, where possible I use analysts estimates but when these aren’t available I have extrapolated the previous Free Cash Flow (FCF) from the year before. For this growth rate I used the average annual growth rate over the past 5 years, but capped to a reasonable level. We then discount this to its value today and sum up the total to get the present value of these cash flows. LSE-TCG-intrinsic-value-Thu-Oct-20-2016 Detailed calculation Please note that the numbers here are in millions apart from the per share values. 5-year cash flow forecast 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Levered FCF (GBP, Millions) £112.00 £180.33 £225.33 £213.62 £202.51 Source Analyst x2 Analyst x3 Analyst x3 Extrapolated @ (-5.2%) Extrapolated @ (-5.2%) Present Value Discounted @ 13.37% £98.79 £140.29 £154.62 £129.29 £108.11 Present value of next 5 years cash flows: £631 The 2nd stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the cash flows to the business after the 1st stage. The Perpetuity Method (Gordon Formula) is used to calculate Terminal Value at an annual growth rate equal to the 10 year government bond rate of (0.9%). Terminal Value Terminal Value = FCF2020 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g) Terminal Value = £203 × (1 + 0.9%) ÷ (13.4% – 0.9%) Terminal value based on the Perpetuity Method where growth (g) = 0.9%: £1,634 Present value of terminal value: £872 The total value or equity value is then the sum of of the present value of the cash flows. Equity Value Equity Value (Total value) = Present value of next 5 years cash flows + terminal value = £631 + £1,634 = £1,503 To get the intrinsic value we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding, or the equivalent number if this is a depositary receipt or ADR to get the intrinsic value per share. Value = Total value / Shares Outstanding (£1,503.15 / 1,542.20) Value per share: £0.97 To finish off with if we compare the intrinsic value of £0.97 to the current share price of £0.676 we find Thomas Cook Group (LSE:TCG) is quite undervalued at a 31% discount to what it is available for right now.
20/7/2016
08:09
bakunin: http://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-07-20/thomas-cook-and-tui-face-a-bleak-summer The above analysis is about 6 months behind events; everything it mentions has got baked into the share price in the last 6 months. Does she realise that the UK accounts for less than 30% of TCG turnover and that proportion is falling as Guo gives TCG tie-ups with China? That is why the company is run by people with funny accents and German-sounding names. The key to where the share price will now go will be what management say about the next 6 months. Apparently, everything is either fully-booked or too expensive via TCG. Aiming at being a premium operator is one possible way out. Just heard of the local headmaster booking a £5k holiday to Turkey. Is he mad? I asked. Apparently, it's a 5-star hotel/deluxe holiday. With that segment of the UK population (headmasters, deputy/assistant headteachers, GPs, council management, NHS management, Oxbridge graduates flocking to the public sector ...) all earning well in excess of £100k and looking for "ways to spend it" (quoted from the above-mentioned headmaster), the game might not yet be completely up for the TCG strategy.
21/5/2015
16:19
shaws67: Late April 2015 i plotted where i believe TCG share price will be in June. Exact centre of the circle is Friday 19th June 2015. But as with anything in shares, nothing is totally accurate, so give or take a few days either side. Will be interesting to see how it pans out. Chart one shows where i think it will go. Chart 2 show progress to date.
21/5/2014
18:44
haircut sir: Mclellan, although I find your treatment of me very poor on my first day on this BB, I will forgive your rash judgement of me and my opinion, and understand that perhaps you dislike traders who borrow stock to sell especially if you have a long position in that stock.But I hope that you are a better detective where companies are concerned as you have made a mistake if you think I am the same person that Maximillian1 is. I have my own views thank you very much and tend to agree with Max at this moment in time about the trend that is developing with TCG.I have been watching TCG since the 50p per share days and took long positions at various points and bought into the rights issue which I regretted soon after as I could have bought in below the Rights issue had I learned how the TCG share price bounces about so often, (problems in Cyprus/Ukraine and Egypt etc) The rise here yesterday and today is a correction of over sold imo, but the city barbers have their clippers ready to shave this further down and maybe to sub 120 but we'll see. Like I said before, I see this selling as a trend for this time of year (sell in May etc) which short sellers will take advantage of, and not as disrespect for TCG investors whom I feel sure will make money in the long run.AIMO.
03/11/2013
11:14
jfacwc: November 2012 saw the start of the big rise in the TCG share price. Final results for that time were not particularly that impressive .. but Harriet Green bought 500,000 shares priced at 23p (!). Hope that she hasn't made so much money to have an affect? Scrabbles post No. 8654 regarding 'common operating & handling procedures' is interesting. Just back from Malaga using Easyjet. On Friday morning - they had just 4 desks open, commonly handling over 10 separate international flights. The 'snake' queue was truly impressive. Luckily we had SB on our 2 boarding passes. Our plane was quite empty until about 5 minutes before departure, when all passengers finally arrived to fill it - suitably harassed and depressed... I truly hope the TCG Share Price does rise, but not at the expense of passenger enjoyment. Having been monitoring for quite a long time the TCG share price movements I personally have no ideas what affects it. However, I do find this TCG BB the best one around - for general comments and observations (& fun) - and hope we have some deserved success before Christmas.
11/6/2013
15:56
bobsidian: 4screws In relatively simple terms the following may explain what has happened. Value of holding immediately prior to TCG going ex-rights 10,000 shares @ £1.42 = £14,200 Value of holding after TCG went ex-rights 10,000 shares @ £1.23 ex-rights price = £12,300 4,000 shares @ (£1.23 ex-rights price - 76p cost of additional shares) = £1,900 New holding of 14,000 shares at ex-rights price minus the cost of acquiring the additional shares is also £14,200. So the loss on your existing holding as TCG went ex-rights (£14,200 - £12,300 = £1,900) is offset by the gain on acquiring the additional new shares at a discount to the ex-rights price. However, the current drift lower in the TCG share price below the ex-rights price is increasing your loss on your original holding and reducing the gain on the new shares. Alternatively you could have sold your rights at around 47p - the intended value of the nil-paid rights at the time the share price went ex-rights - and the proceeds of around £1,900 would also have compensated you for the loss in value of your existing holding as the share price of TCG went ex-rights. As uppompeii states, the purpose of the rights issue is to raise finance for the company. It is not an exercise conducted to enrich the shareholder - rather to ensure the existing shareholders are left in a no loss/no gain position immediately after the share price goes ex-rights.
07/6/2013
13:54
uppompeii: 4screws - the "right" to buy a share at 76p is a tradeable asset. You can sell yours or buy more on the market. I sold mine, luckily at the moment, for 57.9p. I cannot now participate in the offer to buy at 76p as I have sold those "rights". The price you can buy or sell the right to buy a share a 76p fluctuates against the underlying share price of TCG. If the share price were 100, the rights price would be about 24p. That is 76p + 24p = 100p. If the share price were 150p the rights price to buy or sell would be 76p + 74p = 150p. Does that make sense? If you look in your portfolio you should see the TCG rights alongside your TCG shares or spread bet. You will notice the price moving as the TCG share price moves.
23/5/2013
02:52
fbrj: If I may add my tuppence worth..... I would argue that the current share price (150p) reflects the current market view of the value of the shares post placing but pre rights. Although there has been much discussion above about the effects of the placing element of the capital reorganisation (ie a fall in the share price to about 137p) - I don't think this is quite right. Although the number of shares is increased by the placing (and at this point everyone shouts "dilution!") what ppl tend to forget is that "dilution" is short hand for dilution of eps and forget to take account of the use of the proceeds of the placing - in this case about £88m, which will be earnings enhancing (or reducing losses) even if it is just paying off expensive debt. Overall the whole package has been warmly received. So I would argue that the current share price is priced on the basis that the placing is a forgone conclusion and has already occurred - in any event the placing is not hugely material as it is less then 9% of the share capital - as enlarged by the placing. Also it will be difficult to exactly determine the effects of the various components of the reorganisation because quite a lot is happening on 5th June: Dealings commence in the new Placing shares Nil paid rights commence trading Ordinary shares trade "ex rights" Turning to the rights issue itself. The following may help clarify what happens as there appears to be quite a lot of confusion! First of all your holdings need to be on the company's register by a certain date - these could be shares you currently hold or buy right up until the cut off date. This cut off date is 3rd June (referred to as the "Record Date") - which is on a Monday and is also the date of the EGM to approve everything. In theory you might be able to buy on Friday 31st May and still be in time to participate in the rights issue but your broker may tell you a slightly earlier date so all trading information is handled correctly in time. You will (assuming all resolutions passed)then be allocated some "nil paid rights" on a 2 for 5 basis - based on your holding on the Record Date. These rights can be traded and should be allocated into your share accounts where your TCG shares are held - by your broker. You could sell enough rights to pay for your new shares - known as "tail swallowing" - (last date for payment for taking up new shares is 19th June but your broker will probably insist funds and your decision are both available a little earlier) or you could sell some or all of your rights, or you could do nothing - any remaining rights will be sold on your behalf at the end and the proceeds automatically credited to your account in cash. You should also be aware that there will be significant trading in the nil-paids as they are geared to movements in the underlying share price and so the value of them can fluctuate quite dramatically...so much loved by traders during the couple of weeks or so that they trade! It also means that the value to you of them is not fixed either! Now onto some numbers. Let's assume the closing share price on 31st May is the same as it is today - ie 150p. So an individual holder who wants to take up his rights will have 5 existing shares at 150p and 2 at 76p - giving an average of 129p (whether or not an individual shareholder takes up his rights does not effect these numbers because in a company context, one way or another (ie it is underwritten), all those rights shares on offer will be taken up. This share price of 129p is known as the TER or Theoretical ex rights price. This in theory should be the opening price when trading on 5th June commences. This also provides the expected value of those nil paids (129p - 76p) - ie 53p. And as you can see is geared approx 2.5x to the share price So if the share price went up 5p (3.9%) the nil paid would go up 9.4% (5/53). A holder having 1000 shares would have the right to buy 400 shares at 76p and lets say his nil paids were either sold by him or on his behalf for 53p. He did have 1000 shares at 150p = £1500. Now he has 1000 at 129p + 400 x 53p(cash) = £1500. So he is no worse/better off than before. If he had subscribed for his rights he would have spent £1500 + 400 x 76p = £1804 but now holds 1400 shares at an average cost of 129p (ie the TER). If he wanted to sell just enough nil paids to fund some of his rights entitlement he would sell 76/129 x 400 nil paids = 236 x 53p = £125. He would have 164 rights left and would pay 76p each = £125 (ie the value of the nil paids sold). In this situation (the "tail swallowing" referred to earlier) the holder has not had to put his hand in his pocket to fund any extra costs of share subscription. He ends up with 1164 shares at 129p each = (guess what??) £1500. As you can see the difference here, compared to doing nothing, is that in the earlier example above part of the £1500 is held in cash - whereas here all the value is held in shares. Of course this is all the theory - in practice the markets will change and the share price will move around affecting all the above! Hope this helps to clarify some of the misunderstandings....Good luck in whatever you decide to do! FWIW I am a reasonably substantial holder with an entry price of around 40p.
21/5/2013
16:39
zero matrix: Here is a little something to think about: 1. Assumption is that you do not alter the size of your position in TCG apart from subscribing in full to the rights issue (RI). 2. The RI will increase the number of shares held by 40% (2 new for every 5 held). 3. This is purely a comparison of profits, nothing to do with your initial investment in the shares, so also does not refer to the cost of paying for the RI shares. Because the rights issue shares are (almost certainly) issued at a discount to the current share price (in other words we assume the share price will not have collapsed to less than 76p!) the effect of purchasing the discounted shares will show an immediate profit. And because you will now have more shares, your profit will increase at a faster rate than before the RI for every penny the share price rises. So, if for example TCG closes before the RI at the same price as it did today (151.6p) your holding would be showing the same profit after the RI if the post-RI price is 130p. If the share price then rises to 140.8p your position will be showing the same profit as it did a few days ago at the 52 week high of 166.7p. If the post-RI share price then climbs to the 52 week high of 166.7p your profit will be the same as it would have been if the share price had hit 203p pre-RI. Or looked at another way, my avg opening price is currently 120p (I have been in since approx 46p but closed and opened a few times along the way). The share price would have to fall to this to wipe out all my profits on that position. But post-RI that share price would show a good profit, and would only need to rise 10p to 130p to put me back where I am today on an share price of 151.6p. I hope that helps some people. Writing the equations in Excel certainly helped focus my thoughts. If nothing else it demonstrates that finding some cash to take up the rights issue may well pay off handsomely. Of course, there is a downside, but if I really thought the share price would crash to that extent I would already have sold my position. Obviously I am not advising anyone here. Make your own minds up.
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