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SOLG Solgold Plc

11.70
0.44 (3.91%)
26 Jul 2024 - Closed
Delayed by 15 minutes
Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Solgold Plc LSE:SOLG London Ordinary Share GB00B0WD0R35 ORD 1P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.44 3.91% 11.70 7,428,519 16:35:16
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
11.62 11.80 11.68 11.26 11.40
Industry Sector Turnover Profit EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap
Gold Ores USD 3.9M USD -50.34M USD -0.0168 -6.90 337.92M
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
16:35:16 AT 25,960 11.70 GBX

Solgold (SOLG) Latest News (1)

Solgold (SOLG) Discussions and Chat

Solgold (SOLG) Most Recent Trades

Trade Time Trade Price Trade Size Trade Value Trade Type
2024-07-26 15:35:1611.7025,9603,037.32AT
2024-07-26 15:35:1611.70300,28435,133.23UT
2024-07-26 15:29:0911.6034,1273,958.73AT
2024-07-26 15:29:0511.5633,4553,867.40AT
2024-07-26 15:29:0511.6032,9813,825.80AT

Solgold (SOLG) Top Chat Posts

Top Posts
Posted at 26/7/2024 09:20 by Solgold Daily Update
Solgold Plc is listed in the Gold Ores sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker SOLG. The last closing price for Solgold was 11.26p.
Solgold currently has 3,001,106,975 shares in issue. The market capitalisation of Solgold is £348,128,409.
Solgold has a price to earnings ratio (PE ratio) of -6.90.
This morning SOLG shares opened at 11.40p
Posted at 25/7/2024 11:17 by rougepierre
So lets get to the root of why people are unhappy or frustrated on here, despite this now being one of the most compelling mining stories on the planet...

"I want my money back..."

Stock buying is too often based on greed or even stupidity...look at FOMO and watch what happens with NVIDIA etc...

People frequently buy shares because they got a tip...or they follow the money when a share price is roaring...like the guy on here with a break even of 45p from years ago.

Irrespective of my background I learnt a long time ago the following keys

Only invest in something you understand

Where possible specialise (my portfolio is all mining stocks mainly copper and gold)

Research research research...and take a fresh view every day...that may sometimes lead you to sell the lot or a substantial portion. I have twice sold when the share price doubled but also massively reduced when Ingo and Ayten left before building back to our 3 million

Don't panic...weigh the pros and cons and be prepared to take a loss to avoid a bigger one

So...plenty of people on here, including me, are waiting for what we regard as an inevitable takeover bid or bids.

And then its a long time coming...and the share price falls or doesn't progress fast enough..

And eventually people think out loud and blame the company, Scott or even fellow posters.

So the next lesson is always take responsibility for your own decisions...no regrets...you cannot change the past...

So when things go wrong ask yourself what you learned...what you could have done differently or better...

Finally, always have a target in mind and stick by it...it may change when circumstances change but when you reach a target, make a committed decision...stick, sell, sell half...etc.

And of course stop losses make that decision for you.

Read through all the stuffyou receive daily...distil out what is commonsense...listen to the little voice in the middle of the night and live by your decisions.

Blaming somebody else does you no good and you don't learn by it...


Why hasn't there been a bid(s)

There may well have been informal approaches...it would be astonishing if there hadn't.

It was in the public domain that BHP wanted to buy the company years ago, when they settled for a stake at 45p...some people might wish SOLG had accepted a bid with what has happened since.

But actually the story gets better.

It is a racing cetainty that Jiangxi will have asked...and the Ecuador Mining Ministry publicised Mitsui's wish to buy Cascabel...

You don't get that many people on the data room and even signing NDAs without at least some wanting buy SOLG.

And I suspect they all know what the starting price is...

The FNV fundingon a copper gold equivalent basis validates a NPV of $3.2 billion and therefore 80p a share.

Now the Board are legally bound to announce any formal bid, but don't be surprised if they recommend against it at anything less than 80p...

But then it will be for the shareholders to decide.

But then again it is very possible that buyers want only Cascabel. Having thought it through that certainly appeals to me and I suspect the Company would agree to that at the right price because then they would have more than enough to pay a special dividend to shareholders and reinvest the rest in the other 89 projects where there mat well be other Cascabels

But not a JV...

I am certain in my mind of two things (among others)

That the Funding Package has woken up the market and potential bidders big time.

It makes Cascabel credible. I have no doubt that the remaining $900m is doable whether through copper offtake, streaming, smelter deals or even non equity debt.

Why?

Because SOLG now has enough money to take Cascabel all the way to starting the construction of the mind.

There is no missing permit now that can stop that.

Second that the chances of an opening bid have massively increased.

The Funding Package is no bar to that at all.

A prospective bidder can decide whether to take that package on or they could buy it out.

There is a buyback clause in the agreement but in any case there was no buyback in the Lundin package and Newmont were still able to buy it out.

So the company is committed to moving forward to turnkey status. There is no need for the $900 million now..they can wait until the perfect time to do a copper based deal when the price returns to above $5...and it will...

So that means any company seriously interested in buying SOLG or even Cascabel, has to move soon.

They don't even need to do any more due diligence (except the thorough stuff that comes after a successful bid) because the FNV deal was 6 months in the making and immensely detailed DD was carried out on every single aspect of the project.

So in conclusion the Company ideally wants to sell Cascabel but would consider a bid for SOLG if the price is high enough. In the meantime, it is entirely right to carry on doing everything necessary for building the mine.
Posted at 22/7/2024 19:28 by rougepierre
loganair seems to have disappeared...

here are some of his most erudite and appropriate comments from June...

(BTW loganair we hit 13p today...)

"What do you mean amateurs like me who put their life savings into...as I've posted several times over the past year I've got no more then 2%, actually more like 1.5% of my share portfolio in Solgold with an average of a little under 16p...

Solgold was always just a speculative gamble and I treated it as such, that's why only the smallest stock in my share portfolio.

12p take over is my best case scenario for Solgold.

The longer things drag on, the more loans Solgold will have to take on to keep the lights on, the less the company is worth in any take over.


As far as I can see in mid August Solgold has 3 options...

1. Take on another 4 months loan, pay off the previous loan + interest + 4 months working capital.

2. Go bust - Share holders completely wiped out, with one of the majors or the Chinese stepping in to take Solgold, just paying off the loan and Royalty companies = £200mln.

3. Take over - Solgold being bought out for 12p + paying off Royalty companies and loan with interest = £600mln."
Posted at 17/7/2024 17:31 by ifthecapfits
SolGold
(LN: SOLG)

US$750m financing package complements phased development approach; Cascabel further derisked


SolGold (“SOLG”) has secured US$750m in gold stream funding for Cascabel from a syndicate comprising 70% of Franco-Nevada Corp (“FN”) and 30% of Osisko Bermuda Ltd (“Osisko”;). The deal entitles the syndicate to buy ~20% of Cascabel’s gold output, falling to 12% after ~10 years, at an 80% discount to the prevailing spot price. Based on the pre-feasibility study (“PFS”), SOLG estimates a competitive cost of capital of ~9%, while we estimate a pre-tax IRR of ~8.5% at US$2,400/oz Au. The first US$100m of funding should be sufficient to reach a final investment decision (“FID”) within the next ~24 months, eliminating the need for a dilutive equity raise at the current share price. The remaining US$650m would be used to fund construction, contingent on securing the ~US$900m balance of the estimated US$1.55bn upfront capex budget. While still a sizeable sum, with the Exploitation Contract (“EC”) agreed with the Ecuadorean Government in June and updated PFS filed in March, Cascabel is now a lower-risk, more deliverable project, with a wider audience of potential strategic partners or acquirers. Our valuation is maintained at GBp 63/sh.
Posted at 16/7/2024 18:30 by daemonfunds
@swanvesta re: comment 44664 16th Jul '24

I think the calculus boils down to (with some conservative assumptions, some ambitious ones - perhaps cancelling out?):

assuming perfect execution in permitting, in construction, in production for the next 30 odd years!

assuming no further dilution

assuming half the gold is eventually committed to streamers to fund all permitting, construction, first production

assuming july 2024 presentation year6-23 production numbers, with year 6 being 2035 - i.e. five years to first pour, then presentation schedule to full ramp

not counting anything from the first six years

not counting anything after year 23

not counting on any further discoveries in cascabel

assuming copper 9k a tonne, gold 1750 and silver 20

using a 15% discount factor

using a 10% NIM with any excess being taken by ecuador

share price in usd = 0.11323857

share price in gbp = 0.087422659 (8.7p)

assuming a 50% payout, div yield (first one received in 10 years) of about 20% p.a.

side note: some value (~2p) seen for porvenir and the others at these levels ...


conclusion: if you have the patience of a family office managing for intergenerational wealth and are using these back-of-the-envelope assumptions to do so, consider sending your money to a professional money manager and sacking your lazy CIO that didn't identify this at 6p in March!
Posted at 14/6/2024 12:29 by lowtrawler
Last post. I think I have run out of anything new to say or contribute and so this will be my last post. Before I go, I will summarise my views on SOLG and what I believe is likely to happen.

Cascabel is a world class resource but in a difficult jurisdiction and requiring block mining expertise. Any internal capacity for SOLG to develop Cascabel was removed over the past 2 years as the strategy has focussed on a business sale. A lot of interest has been shown from potential bidders but none have bitten.

With the updated PFS and support from Ecuador Central Government, SOLG are in a good position to advance towards production over the next 2 years and obtain all the local permits along the way. This is unlikely to be a smooth ride but I would expect SOLG to successfully navigate these obstacles. Their issue will be starting production without a bid having been made. They will not have the expertise nor financing to take that step. Failing to take that step will likely leave them in default and at risk of losing the Cascabel license. Hence, an early business sale is now more important than ever.

Potential bidders will not want SOLG to enter any more NSR arrangements and nor will they want any off-take arrangements. If SOLG long-term funding involves either of these, it will put off bidders. IMV, that makes a bid likely before the long-term financing is agreed.

Everyone has different views on the potential pricing of a SOLG bid. IMV, a realistic bid price will be somewhere between £400m - £1.2bn. I believe it is possible for a price of more than £1.2bn but only under very competitive bidding. The key risk is a bidder not arriving. Potential bidders will be judging whether to wait for SOLG to go into default or to move now. IMV, if a bid is not made prior to the longer-term financing, potential bidders have decided to wait for default.

As always, best of luck and hoping you all get the price you want.
Posted at 12/6/2024 11:08 by lowtrawler
Lurker, are you able to expand on why you think "Solg is actually over a bit of a barrel"

I'm one of the bears on this thread and have never been able to properly articulate what is holding SOLG back. My basic premiss has been:

1. SOLG stopped planning to develop Cascabel themselves about 2 years ago and also abandoned any plans to explore the regionals.
2. This left them with a single strategy - sell the business.
3. While there has been a lot of interest, no buyer has actually stepped forward.
4. In the absence of a buyer, they no longer have the skills nor finance to advance Cascabel to production.
5. All they can do is wait for a buyer to appear but the Ecuador government will not wait forever and the exploitation agreement suggests they have around 2 years.
6. If a buyer does not step forward in the next 2 years, SOLG will be unable to meet their commitments.

This puts SOLG into a position where they HAVE TO sell in the next 2 years or risk losing Cascabel through default. Potential buyers are aware of this. However, whether they buy from SOLG or from the Ecuador government following default, they will have competition and have to pay a fair price. In essence, there is no reason for them not to bid for SOLG now unless SOLG are demanding an unrealistic price.
Posted at 11/6/2024 11:43 by francoismyname
Good post on LSE.

Particularly note the point about the price being controlled by those close to Solgold and their advisors . If Caldwell and the FD Stackhouse are in on it they should be sent to prison for manipulating the share price.

“ Yep, V interesting!

Mather agreed an expensive loan for DGR on 14 January which he essentially used DGR's equity in Solgold as collateral. He did so with confidence as its clear he know's what wis going on at Solgold HQ.

So if the share price has been 9.10 since 3 January, and is at the same level today, we can assume some form of a deal (transaction/financing/funding) on or before 3 January, and that the terms can only be released once elements of the deal have been executed (IPA; ESIA; Tailings Land etc).

No public comments from Scott regarding the IPA, and or when the ESIA will arrive. Scott MIA most of this year.

It is also evident that the share price is being controlled by those very close to Solgold, perhaps their advisors equities team.

Newmont has recently set the scene for a potential JV with BHP on Solgold. You don't make public comments regarding JV with peers if there was no substance to it.

Its an exciting period for Solgold and I look forward to the next few weeks/months.

I very much believe a final deal in-excess of 100p is very much achievable”
Posted at 11/6/2024 10:13 by rougepierre
loganair...

All you do is post opinion. At least mine is informed by facts.

So...

"Would anybody actually be interested in buying these shares, maybe why they have not been offered for sale..."

FACT: They have had offers for the shares but have no intention of selling them anywhere near the current price...if at all

What does that tell you about the current share price?

PLUS:

When SOLG was removed from the MSCI Index at the end of February, MSCI Tracker Funds had to unload millions of shares. 76 million were traded on Feb 29

The price was driven down sub 6p and I gratefully mopped up 500,000 at c5.9p...

The Average Daily Volume in SOLG shares is c4 million, but...

From 6th to 28th March 220 million were traded for a daily average of 16 million as the price was driven up to 10.6p...

So what does that tell you about the liquidity in these shares (people simply aren't selling...)

And what does it tell you about the market's appetite when decent size is available...?

So I really don't think they would have any difficulty PLACING these shares...especially to Jiangxi...

But they are steadfastly set against it...

I wonder why?

Because there is "a robust, longer-term financing package" (May 14th quote) coming down the pipe...

Unless there is a bid first...
Posted at 10/6/2024 19:12 by papillon
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com


This chart is factual. It's not opinion. The SOLG share price is just going sideways and has been since the start of April.
Posted at 10/6/2024 13:49 by lowtrawler
loganair, the current share price still represents a MCap of over £250m. If SOLG were in financial distress, it is likely the MCap would be below £50m. The share price has been pretty robust over recent months.
Solgold share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange

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