Shell Share Discussion Threads

[sogoesit] 19/4/2018 09:36

My conclusion from my previous post (which is what I was trying to ascertain for a further investment decision) is that, with yield compression, say to 4.5%, and strengthening dollar/weakening sterling there is more upside to the sp, at constant dividends ($1.88), in the UK RDSB share price than the ADRs.

The returns in GBP would be about 20% and in the ADRs 15% for the yield compression scenario with Cable going from $1.425 to $1.400.
(I get price targets of 2984p in RDSB and $83.55 in the ADR).

[sogoesit] 19/4/2018 09:14

Interesting view on timing in the current cycle, fjgooner, thanks.

Meanwhile we also have price targets ranging from 2411 (MorganStanley 17/04); 2640 (HSBC 17/04) to 3000 (Barclays re-iterating several times this year).

I have no idea whether these analysts are factoring-in a dividend increase in the next 2 years. If not, that could be the surprise I guess.

Furthermore, RDSB is undervalued compared to its peers, yielding 5.2% whereas:
XOM yields 3.6%
COP yields 1.60% (an outlier?)
CVX yields 3.45%
So "yield compression" could also be on the cards.

[waldron] 19/4/2018 09:08

Total
49.98 +0.56%



Engie
14.01 +0.07%

Orange
14.525 -0.03%

BP
512 +0.47



Shell A
2,461 +0.57%



Shell B
2,504.5 +0.66%



FTSE 100
7,333.34 +0.22%
Dow Jones
24,748.07 -0.16%
CAC 40
5,392.08 +0.22%



Brent Crude Oil NYMEX 74.09 +0.39%
Gasoline NYMEX 2.09 +0.22%
Natural Gas NYMEX 2.74 -0.26%


SLOW DOWN,YOU MOVE TOO FAST

[the grumpy old men] 19/4/2018 08:19

Oil Extends Rally on U.S. Inventory Optimism Before OPEC Meeting
By Tsuyoshi Inajima
19 avril 2018 à 02:54 UTC+2 Updated on 19 avril 2018 à 08:07 UTC+2

U.S. petroleum stockpiles decrease below their 5-year average
WTI futures climb for a third day to trade at $68.87 a barrel

Oil extended a rally toward $69 a barrel after a drop in U.S. petroleum stockpiles below a commonly used dividing line for surplus versus deficit stoked optimism as investors await a key OPEC meeting.

[fjgooner] 18/4/2018 22:57

2hoggy,

Agreed - mostly.

Shell's near-term peak returns start from 2020 according to their own data. And those returns are set against a benchmark of crude at $60.

So the sweetest spot from those not willing to be purist long-term buy-holders may well prove to be somewhere in the window between the Aramco IPO date and a few months thereafter. OPEC seem to be set on extending their deal to fully facilitate that IPO next year, so I'm pencilling in strong gains from now to 18 months' hence.

Thereafter, may present an invitation to retire some energy investments to the "dry powder" drawer for the next 24 months.

FJ

[2hoggy] 18/4/2018 22:31

This year we should surely see good price gains as oil price bubbles,not sure about next,after the saudia's manage to offload their pile of crude promises.

[fjgooner] 18/4/2018 22:01

Brent crude jumps again up to another multi-year high of $73.83. A boost of $2.25 today or a gain of 3.14%.

Massive gains are surely to come for the energy super-majors.

How long can prices stay this low for the likes of Shell and BP?

FJ

[waldron] 18/4/2018 16:59

WHAT A DIFFERENCE A DAY MAKES ENCOURAGED BY SOME DECENT NEWS

SKIPPED NICELY INTO THE 2475 to 2575 BOX

[waldron] 18/4/2018 10:49

WISHING AND HOPING AND PRAYING FOR A BREAK OUT

[waldron] 18/4/2018 09:02

ON THE CUSP AND AT A PIVOT POINT

OMENS LOOKING GOOD FOR SURE

[petepitstop] 17/4/2018 12:38

The lack of investment seems to be creating a different kind of peak oil supply whilst peak oil demand is moving further into the future.

[waldron] 17/4/2018 11:34

so the enevelope is now being pushed THRU into the 2575 to 2675 BOX

NOT LONG TO WAIT

ONLY 9 DAYS FOR SUBSTANTIAL MOVEMENT

[la forge] 17/4/2018 11:29

broker ratings
Royal Dutch Shell Plc 9.7% Potential Upside Indicated by HSBC

Posted by: Amilia Stone 17th April 2018

Royal Dutch Shell Plc using EPIC/TICKER code (LON:RDSA) had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates217; with the recommendation being set at ‘HOLD’ this morning by analysts at HSBC. Royal Dutch Shell Plc are listed in the Oil & Gas sector within UK Main Market. HSBC have set a target price of 2595 GBX on its stock