Shell Share Discussion Threads

[maywillow] 08/11/2017 16:55

LONDON--Oil prices were mainly flat Wednesday morning after weak Chinese data and receding geopolitical risk factors.

Brent crude, the global benchmark, was up 0.11%, at $63.76 a barrel on London's Intercontinental Exchange. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, West Texas Intermediate futures were trading down 0.14% at $57.12 a barrel.

Chinese customs data released Wednesday morning showed oil imports at roughly 7.3 million barrels a day in October, down from 9 million barrels a day the month prior--the "weakest monthly imports seen since October 2016," according to Dutch bank ING Groep.

Giovanni Staunovo, a commodities analyst at UBS Wealth Management, called China's import contraction surprising. "Considering that China was one of the countries removing excess production from the market, there is a concern if this trend continues," he said.

At the same time, the market appeared to consolidate some of the record gains of recent days, as concerns over political turmoil in Saudi Arabia faded.

Crude prices earlier in the week hit two-year highs--with Brent nearly breaching $65 a barrel--after Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman had more than five dozen princes, ministers and prominent businessmen detained in an alleged corruption crackdown over the weekend.

But the upheaval is "not affecting oil production" and there is "no change on the oil policy side," Mr. Staunovo said, suggesting Saudi Arabia would continue to abide by an OPEC-led agreement to curb production.

The market also cooled in response to an updated forecast Tuesday from the U.S. Energy Information Administration, upping its supply growth projection to 720,000 barrels a day for 2018. U.S. crude production is now expected to average 9.95 million barrels a day next year.

"The U.S. shale machine is poised to shift up a gear as producers make hay amid the improving price backdrop," said Stephen Brennock, an analyst at brokerage PVM Oil Associates Ltd.

Oil market participants will be watching for inventory data Wednesday from the EIA to assess whether the amount of crude oil in storage has continued to decline. Traders and analysts surveyed by The Wall Street Journal on average expect crude stockpiles to have fallen by 2.1 million barrels in the week ended Nov. 3.

Among refined products, Nymex reformulated gasoline blendstock--the benchmark gasoline contract--was down 0.19%, at $1.81 a gallon. ICE gasoil, a benchmark for diesel fuel, changed hands at $563.75 a metric ton, up 0.09% from the previous settlement.

Write to Christopher Alessi at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 08, 2017 06:45 ET (11:45 GMT)

[maywillow] 08/11/2017 15:31

OPEC to Disappoint Oil Bulls at November Meeting, Citigroup Says
By Grant Smith
8 novembre 2017 à 12:37 UTC+1

Decision to extend output curbs through 2018 unlikely: Morse
Citigroup says higher oil prices to spur U.S. shale drilling

OPEC Secretary-General Mohammad Barkindo speaks in Vienna about rebalancing of the global oil market.

Oil bulls banking that OPEC and its allies will later this month agree to extend supply cuts for all of 2018 are set to be disappointed, Citigroup Inc. says.

Hedge funds are laying record bets that Brent crude futures will rise, exchange data show, amid expectations that OPEC and Russia will decide to prolong supply curbs when they meet in Vienna on Nov. 30. Markets are pricing in an extension to the end of next year, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.

“There is an exuberance in the market about there being a done deal to extend through the end of 2018 and I think there’s likely to be disappointment in that come Nov. 30,” Ed Morse, head of commodities research at Citigroup, said by phone from New York. “Our base case is that we do not get a full-year extension on Nov. 30.”

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and Russia have been leading a 24-nation coalition of oil producers this year in an historic pact to clear a global supply glut by reducing output. The strategy is finally paying off, with about half the surplus in inventories gone and oil prices trading at the highest in two years.

The accord is due to expire at the end of March. Expectations grew that the producers will choose to extend the measures throughout 2018 after Russian President Vladimir Putin signaled in early October the country would be open to such a move.
Sequenced Decisions

Citigroup’s Morse expects that, rather than a full-year extension, OPEC will either prolong the curbs until the end of the second quarter, or postpone taking a decision until January or February.

Russian officials and companies, eager to press on with expanding production capacity, have shown resistance to an extension. Lukoil PJSC Chief Executive Officer Vagit Alekperov said on Oct. 10 that the deal should end if oil prices reach $60 a barrel, while Rosneft PJSC boss Igor Sechin has warned that U.S. shale output is undermining their efforts.

Russian Energy Minister Alexander Novak said on Nov. 2 that producers won’t necessarily decide at this month’s meeting because the outlook for the market remains unclear.

“There’s a short-term possibility of a selloff,” Citigroup’s Morse said.

Morse predicts the producers will ultimately maintain their cutbacks throughout 2018, though in a sequence of decisions rather than a commitment made this month.
Shale Surge

Bulls are still in for a let-down though, if they expect OPEC’s actions will significantly tighten global markets next year, he said. With oil prices having recovered to almost $60 a barrel in New York, U.S. shale output will surge again after losing momentum recently. There has been “an incredible amount of hedging activity by U.S. producers” for 2018 and 2019 that allows them to resume drilling, Morse said.

“It’s a fragile balance,” he said. “The higher the price goes in the short run the more difficult it will be to return the oil taken off the market.”

North American shale output will soar to 7.5 million barrels a day in 2021 as OPEC’s output cuts triggered a crude-price recovery that helped U.S. drillers, the group said in its World Oil Outlook report on Tuesday. That’s 56 percent higher than it forecast a year ago.

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[maywillow] 08/11/2017 15:08

WHITEHOUSE

after saying all that

i am expecting a sell off from recent oil and gaz highs

i feel a certain unease in my gut

good luck

[maywillow] 08/11/2017 15:03

TRUMPET

good question

but stopped smoking years ago and although one should be wise and knowledgeable with
advancing years i be unable to make valuable comment

too many permutations outthere what with quality mix and hedging

Generally broad brush approach gives an up trend

watch if it substantially breaks 2575p

please carry on your posting, might atleast get this tired old brain working

[maywillow] 08/11/2017 14:00

AB PREMIUM NARROWED TO 32p

such much

[waldron] 08/11/2017 11:32

QUIET TODAY

NOTHING TO SEE HERE

[grupo guitarlumber] 08/11/2017 08:38

Ex-dividend date RDS A and RDS B shares November 16,
2017

Record
date
November 17, 2017

[grupo guitarlumber] 08/11/2017 08:35

With all this mention of hedging, it might interesting to see the possible volume
market and profitability over future months and years

The rig count seems to be a short term indicator these days but i understand it does not
give whether rig are up or on down time and if modern and efficient or whats the terrain
conditions

ALL WE SEEM TO FOLLOW THESE DAYS IS BROAD BRUSH INDICATORS REGARDING OIL PRICE

many seem to be selling oil forward like its going out of fashion

[grupo guitarlumber] 08/11/2017 08:16

Royal Dutch Shell PLC has reported above-normal emissions from its Deer Park, Texas, refining and chemical facility.

In a statement to the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, Shell said that on Monday afternoon "a valve on the outlet of Coke Drum 5 failed, allowing the vessel to pressure up and relieve to the flare system. The pressure exceeded the capacity of the flare gas recovery system, allowing vents to be routed directly to the flare."

Deer Park is located along the Houston Ship Channel, 20 miles east of downtown Houston. The facility includes a 326,000-barrel-a-day refinery.



Write to Dan Molinski at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 07, 2017 17:57 ET (22:57 GMT)

[ariane] 07/11/2017 17:33

extract from citywire

Oil majors Shell and BP have risen towards the top of the FTSE 100 as the price of Brent crude held onto big gains made yesterday.

The oil price enjoyed its biggest daily rally in six weeks yesterday, surging 3.3% amid tensions between key producers Saudi Arabia and Iran.


Saudi Arabia, in the midst of a corruption crackdown, has ramped up rhetoric against Iran, which it sees as responsible for conflict in Yemen.

The risk of a threat to supply has buoyed the oil price ahead of a meeting of the Opec cartel of oil-producing nations, where an extension of the current production cut is expected to be agreed.

The price of a barrel of Brent crude today edged 0.9% lower to $63.67, still holding on to most of yesterday's strong gains.

'The key driver for this move higher has been Saudi Arabia,' said Kathleen Brooks, research director at City Index.

'The extension of the Opec production cut is a powerful driver of oil in the short term, and Brent could be acting as a safe haven in the midst of the confusion around the anti-corruption drive.'

Shares in BP
rose 4p to 525.2p while Shell was up 9.6p at £25, bucking a falling FTSE 100, which dropped 49 points, or 0.7%, to 7,513.

Morgan Stanley analyst Martijn Rats upped his price targets on BP and Shell by 6%, from 560p to 595p and from £27.70 to £29.30 respectively.

He said the European oil majors could now cover dividends and capital expenditure at $52 a barrel.

'Cost and capital efficiency for Europe's majors continues to improve faster than expected,' he said.

'With spot and oil prices well above that, we reiterate our "attractive" stance.

[2hoggy] 07/11/2017 14:46

I understood that a lot of ships were now being fuelled by gas,which of course is a lot cleaner in emmissions.

[sarkasm] 07/11/2017 14:32

for interest but not sure whether SHELL AFFECTED




Christopher M. Matthews and Christopher Alessi

The refining industry is facing its biggest disruption in years from a looming international air-pollution regulation aimed at slashing the amount of sulfur in marine fuel for ocean-going ships.

The regulation doesn't go into effect until 2020, but its reverberations are already being felt. Analysts predict it will widen the gap between the refining world's winners and losers, making some richer while pushing others to the brink.

Some larger companies, including ExxonMobil Corp., Total SA and Repsol SA have invested billions in recent years to upgrade refineries, which will allow them to produce more lower-sulfur fuel and other products. They say they are prepared for the regulations, which are set by the International Maritime Organization and meant to reduce emissions that health officials blame for respiratory and heart diseases.

Some smaller companies, including Philadelphia Energy Solutions, the largest refinery on the U.S. East Coast, haven't yet begun to make the costly improvements.

"It's the biggest change to hit the industry in a while," said Clint Follette of Boston Consulting Group. "At this point, it's too late for most companies to put in those kinds of investments before 2020."

The International Maritime Organization, the United Nations' shipping regulator, last year mandated that oceangoing vessels cut the sulfur content in their fuel by more than 85% starting in 2020. The world's 50,000 merchant ships can either undergo costly retrofits to their exhaust systems, or use cleaner fuels such as low-sulfur diesel.

Most large ships now use what is known as bunker fuel, a thick, sulfurous type of fuel that is often composed of residual oils, or the leftovers after diesel and gasoline have been separated from crude oil through refining.

Shipping companies are expected to opt for cleaner fuels, which will shrink the market for bunker fuel. Shippers consume as much as 4 million barrels per day of bunker fuel, and the regulation could cut demand by as much as half, analysts say.

That is bad news for simpler refineries in Europe and the U.S. East Coast, which will be stuck a glut of high sulfur fuel leftovers they will be forced to sell at huge discount, Mr. Follette said.

That is bad news for simpler refineries in Europe and the U.S. East Coast that aren't able to process the dregs of the barrel into more valuable fuels and which will stuck with a glut of high sulfur fuel leftovers they will be forced to sell at huge discount, Mr. Follette said.

It is good news for the U.S. Gulf Coast, already the money-making center of the American refining industry. Many refineries there are more complex, meaning that they have technology that can take heavy and sour crude and turn it into more profitable, light products, in addition to bunker fuel.

Companies including ExxonMobil, Chevron Corp., Marathon Petroleum Corp. and Valero Energy Corp. have some of the nation's most complex refineries, according to Stratas Advisors global refinery rankings.

In addition to its existing assets on the Gulf, Exxon, in anticipation of the new rules, is investing more than $1 billion in new equipment that will be able to produce lower-sulfur fuels at a refinery in Antwerp, Belgium.

Others in Europe are also investing. Total has invested $1.31 billion at its refinery complex in Antwerp to increase its diesel capabilities and cut heavy- oil production.

Dario Scaffardi, executive vice president at Saras, said "small and unsophisticated" refiners will "all have a problem" in 2020, because "high sulfur fuel oil will be a product without a home."

The change comes at a bad time for the beleaguered East Coast refining sector, where many refineries have shut down in recent years.

Philadelphia Energy Solutions, a joint venture of private-equity firm Carlyle Group LP and Sunoco Inc., is one of the least complex major refineries in the U.S., according to Stratas Advisors.

The facility processes 335,000 barrels per day and primarily makes gasoline. It is already mired in debt, due to higher costs to secure crude on the East coast than elsewhere in the U.S., declining gasoline consumption and millions it had to spend to comply with earlier regulations to blend ethanol into their fuels.

The company played down the impact of the new rule, saying the U.S. is producing a lot of less sulfurous sweeter crude oil, the type the facility prefers and that while it will reduce the market for bunker fuel, it will increase the market for cleaner fuels.

"The IMO 2020 regulation will create new demand for diesel until the shipping industry adapts to the new regulation," it said in a statement.

Write to Christopher M. Matthews at [e-mail] and Christopher Alessi at [e-mail]



(END) Dow Jones Newswires

November 07, 2017 08:14 ET (13:14 GMT)

[sarkasm] 07/11/2017 12:46

pvb

i too was puzzled as to the narrowing premium difference between A and B SHARES

I THEN CAME ACROSS THE ARTICLE BELOW by walders

DO WITH IT WHAT YOU WILL

waldron
5 Nov '17 - 16:51 - 1338 of 1367 1 0



the a shares seem to have already risen
but will they go further upwards and the difference reduce with the b share

volumes up for A

VOLUMES DOWN FOR B

Needs watching for some

[pvb] 07/11/2017 12:33

dutch law is changing g mite in 2019

so perhaps there will be more interest in A SHARES

Could you please explain this, waldron.

TIA

[waldron] 07/11/2017 11:45

Royal Dutch Shell Plc 5.3% Potential Upside Indicated by HSBC

Posted by: Amilia Stone 7th November 2017

Royal Dutch Shell Plc using EPIC/TICKER code (LON:RDSA) has had its stock rating noted as ‘Reiterates217; with the recommendation being set at ‘BUY’ this morning by analysts at HSBC. Royal Dutch Shell Plc are listed in the Oil & Gas sector within UK Main Market. HSBC have set a target price of 2600 GBX on its stock. This indicates the analyst now believes there is a potential upside of 5.3% from the opening price of 2470 GBX. Over the last 30 and 90 trading days the company share price has increased 173.5 points and increased 267.5 points respectively. The 52 week high for the share price is currently at 2516.32 GBX while the 52 week low for the stock is 1922.5 GBX.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc has a 50 day moving average of 2,254.67 GBX and a 200 day moving average of 2,155.56. There are currently 8,269,625,712 shares in issue with the average daily volume traded being 5,216,480. Market capitalisation for LON:RDSA is £203,887,621,929 GBP.

[grahamite2] 07/11/2017 10:29

Thank you.

[waldron] 07/11/2017 10:24

dutch law is changing g mite in 2019

so perhaps there will be more interest in A SHARES

IF YOU LOOK BACK THE PREMIUM WAS 100P ME THINKS

some canny investors might find a way to make some money

premium approx 34p

[grahamite2] 07/11/2017 09:24

RDSB is designed for the UK investor so you'd expect a slight premium, wouldn't you? Why all the posts on the subject, then? Genuine question, no offence intended.