Shell Share Discussion Threads

[maywillow] 19/1/2017 13:37

02 Feb 2017
Fourth quarter 2016 results

[waldron] 19/1/2017 12:22

IEA: Global oil demand growth expected to drop in 2017
19 January 2017 15:22 (UTC+04:00)

1

Baku, Azerbaijan, Jan.19

By Leman Zeynalova – Trend:

Global oil demand growth for 2016 is now expected to be 1.5 million barrels per day (mb/d), according to the Oil Market Report of the International Energy Agency (IEA).

“In 2017, however, we still expect the rate of growth for global demand to fall back to 1.3 mb/d. The prospect of higher product prices - assuming that the cost of crude oil rises in 2017 - plus the possibility of a stronger US dollar are factors behind our reduced demand growth outlook for this year,” said IEA.

Early indications suggest a deeper reduction may be under way in OPEC crude production for January, as Saudi Arabia and its neighbors enforce supply cuts, according to the report.

“The IEA has anticipated for some time that shale oil production will increase in 2017, but we are now expecting an even larger increase of 170,000 b/d, following a decline of nearly 300,000 b/d last year,” said the organization.

Non-OPEC production is not all about the US, however, according to IEA.

“Elsewhere, long-planned projects are coming on stream in Brazil and Canada and their combined production will rise by 415,000 b/d this year,” said the report. “In China and Colombia, the sharp declines in production seen in 2016 will be reduced.”

The organization forecasts that for the non-OPEC countries as a whole, net production growth will be 380,000 b/d - after taking into account the output reduction commitments by eleven countries - and this increase could be supplemented by higher production from Libya and Nigeria, both of which are exempt from the production cuts.

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[jon123] 19/1/2017 09:59

call me cynic if you like but the Saudis want the oil price up now so they can float of there oil industry and get a good price they failed to kill the USA fracking industry by flooding the market with oil so plan B lets get the rest of the world to keep paying us for doing nothing ops that was plan A until they tried to be clever

now there nearly broke and heaven forbid they may have to work for a living instead of hiring anyone in to do it for them ops no that'll never happen

[waldron] 19/1/2017 09:26

could that mean a temporary fallback thru 2275 especially if feb news disappoints

[supermarky] 19/1/2017 09:05

Double top?

[waldron] 19/1/2017 07:52

nce

Offshore wind farm.

Written by Mark Lammey - 19/01/2017 6:00 am

The US Government said yesterday that it had cleared Shell and Statoil to bid for an offshore wind farm licence off North Carolina later this year.

The 122,405 acre Kitty Hawk licence will be offered in a commercial wind lease sale on March 16, the US Interior Department said yesterday.

Shell and Statoil are among nine companies to have made the shortlist.

Last month, Statoil said it had won an offshore wind lease off New York with a $42million bid.
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Outgoing US President Barack Obama’s administration has pushed to speed up the development of renewable energy.

The US’s first offshore wind farm off the coast of Rhode Island recently started operating.

Donald Trump is expected to prioritise hydrocarbon production when he takes up office this week.

Interior Secretary Sally Jewell said: “Today’s announcement demonstrates how our collaborative efforts with Federal, state and local partners over the past eight years have built a foundation to harness the enormous potential of offshore wind energy.

“The lease sale underscores the growing market demand for renewable energy and strong industry interest in meeting that demand.”

Bureau of Ocean Energy Management acting director Walter Cruickshank said: “This is a significant milestone for North Carolina and our country as we continue to make progress on diversifying our nation’s energy portfolio.

“We look forward to overseeing a successful lease sale in March, to contribute to the region’s energy supply and assist local governments in achieving their goals for energy independence and job creation.”

[waldron] 18/1/2017 11:24

Hydrogen Lobby Launched at Davos

Three gas companies – Shell, Total, Engie – and ten car-making and gas process technology groups have teamed up to form the ‘Hydrogen Council’ which launched January 18 at the World Economic Forum in Davos.

The new group says it is “determined to position hydrogen among the key solutions of the energy transition.”

During its Swiss launch, ‘Hydrogen Council’ members said they want to accelerate their investment in the development and commercialisation of the hydrogen and fuel cell sectors, which they estimate already totals €1.4bn/year.

The new body is currently made up of 13 CEOs and chairpersons from Air Liquide, Alstom, Anglo American, BMW Group, Daimler, Engie, Honda, Hyundai Motor, Kawasaki, Linde, Shell, Total and Toyota – all of whom say they are committed to help achieve the ambitious goal of reaching the 2 degrees centigrade target as agreed in the 2015 Paris Agreement. Air Liquide and Toyota are its co-chairs. Linde is also a small-scale LNG distributor.

Shell helped roll out hydrogen-refuelling infrastructure in Iceland as a way to demonstrate it could play a major role in a national economy's automotive sector. However the group does not include Statoil or other firms that have pioneered similar hydrogen pilot projects, or indeed any US companies.

In some countries, however, where investment is scarce, hydrogen infrastructure will be a rival to infrastructure to refuel natural gas vehicles (NGVs). The same is true among car-makers which may need to prioritise blue-sky investment between developing hydrogen and natural gas vehicles.

“Our call today to world leaders is to commit to hydrogen so that together we can meet our shared climate ambitions and give further traction to the emerging hydrogen eco-system,” said Benoit Potier, CEO, Air Liquide.

"The Hydrogen Council will exhibit responsible leadership in showcasing hydrogen technology and its benefits to the world. It will seek collaboration, cooperation and understanding from governments, industry and most importantly, the public,” added Toyota chairman Takeshi Uchiyamada.



Mark Smedley

[the grumpy old men] 16/1/2017 13:22

Saudis see no need to extend OPEC deal beyond six months
By Anthony DiPaola, Mahmoud Habboush, Sam Wilkin on 1/16/2017

ABU DHABI (Bloomberg) -- OPEC probably won’t need to extend a deal it reached with other crude producers to cut output, given the level of their compliance with the reductions and the outlook for an increase in global demand, Saudi Energy Minister Khalid Al-Falih said.

The re-balancing of the oil market should take place by the end of the first half of the year, Al-Falih told reporters during an energy event in the United Arab Emirates capital of Abu Dhabi. Demand will pick up in the summer, and OPEC wants to make sure markets are well-supplied, he said.

“We don’t think it’s necessary, given the level of compliance we have seen and given the expectations of demand,” Al-Falih said Monday. “The re-balancing which started slowly in 2016 will have its full impact by the first half. Of course, there are many variables that can come into play between now and June, and at that time we will be able to reassess.”

Saudi Arabia is due to meet fellow members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries in May at their bi-annual meeting in Vienna to assess the market and the group’s production policy. OPEC states will also gather with major producers outside the group later this month in the Austrian capital to monitor their compliance with the production cuts, which aim to reduce inventories and shore up prices. Benchmark Brent crude futures were trading 10 cents higher at $55.55 in London at 9:54 a.m.

Avoiding Shortage

OPEC’s decision on Nov. 30 to cut output reversed a two-year policy that let members pump all they wanted to try to maximize sales—a strategy that had contributed to a worldwide glut. The producer group, together with 11 other countries including Russia, is seeking to reduce supply by about 1.8 MMbopd. The cuts took effect on Jan. 1 and are to last through June.

“All players have indicated their willingness to extend, if necessary,” Al-Falih said. “Based on my judgement today, I think it’s unlikely that we will need to continue. Demand is going to pick up in the summer, and we want to make sure the markets continue to be supplied well. We don’t want to create a shortage or a squeeze, so the extension will only happen if there’s a need, and if there’s a need, we will do it. ”

Saudi Arabia has cut production to less than 10 MMbopd, below its targeted level, and is currently producing at a 22-month low, Al-Falih said Jan. 12 in Abu Dhabi. The world’s biggest oil exporter had agreed to trim output by 486,000 bpd to 10.058 MMbpd as part of the global accord on supply.

“We will strictly adhere to our commitment and be at our cap, or as is the case now, slightly below it,” Al-Falih said Monday.

[la forge] 15/1/2017 12:24

Thanks for that FJ

MUCH APPRECIATED

[ariane] 15/1/2017 12:22

NICE POST FJ

[fjgooner] 15/1/2017 11:13

Good morning La Forge,

I can’t possibly offer links to a future event. However, I can offer some of the influences that shape my personal view for a RDSB share price of £28 By 2017Q2 Results.

So let's start with the target being discussed - £28. That is 17.77% higher than the current share price.

2017Q2 Results are likely to be published by the end of July - so that is approximately 27.5 weeks from Monday.

So we are looking at an average increase in share price of just under 0.65% per week - obviously smoothing the peaks, troughs and any pullbacks along the way.

So what key factors could be in play during these next 27 weeks?

In the shortest term, I’d suggest currency movements.

Share prices of FTSE100 constituents that earn profits in dollars but report in pounds sterling have benefitted since the Brexit vote as the pound significantly weakened against the dollar. So it would seem reasonable to expect that further movements will be similarly reflected both in the base share prices and any dividends paid of such companies.

Just today in the Sunday Times there was an article entitled Theresa May calls for ‘clean and hard’ Brexit . Within that article it was stated that Downing Street staff expect her words to cause a “market correction” that could lead to a fresh fall in the pound.

This could give an immediate lift to shares such as RDSB.

Thereafter we will have the publication of Shell’s own results for 06Q4, 07Q1 and 07Q2 on February 4th, May 4th and July 28th. We already know that 06Q4 covers a period where commodity prices had recovered substantially by comparison to prior quarters and, so far, this has continued into 07Q1.

Unless the OPEC deal unravels and commodity prices reverse, I find it hard to imagine that the reporting of any of these periods will be met negatively by the market.

And whilst we’re on that subject, we have a few OPEC related dates during this period.

Late last year, the Russians were suggesting that an OPEC/non-OPEC monitoring group should meet somewhere around January 20th to assess the initial implementation and compliance of the agreement.

Thereafter, there is the next Ordinary Meeting of OPEC that will convene in Vienna, Austria, on the 25th May. This will be followed shortly by the completion of the first 6-month term of the OPEC production cut agreement at the end of June. Presumably this will be accompanied by further details on compliance and confirmation – and whether a second 6 months of cuts will be implemented.

All of these are likely to have some influence of the price of energy stocks such as Shell.

Saudi Arabia’s intention to get the float of Aramco off to a good start will, IMHO, mean that there will be a lot of pressure to get all of the compliance and associated news in the meetings above to be as positive as possible.

Of course, any positive momentum can be checked by other negative and macro factors along the way, but all in all I’m generally positive enough to envisage an average Shell share price build of 0.65% per week over the next 27.5 weeks to meet that £28 target.

But as ever, do your own research and I wish you all the best of luck with your investment decision whichever way you go.

FJ

[ariane] 15/1/2017 09:40

04/01/2017 | 13:49
While maintaining its price target at 2,500 pence, RBC Capital Markets notes its opinion of Royal Dutch Shell's 'sector performance' to 'outperformance', citing a better vision on net debt which he said will begin to decline.

In a research note, he states that the recent production agreements between oil-exporting countries have placed the black market 'on a much stronger basis', removing a thorn from the foot of the Anglo-Dutch company.

"We see the potential for Shell to outperform its peers because it can continue to realize its divestment program while generating consistent growth in its cash flow," said the financial intermediary.

[la forge] 14/1/2017 20:39

fjgooner
7 Jan '17 - 14:03 - 339 of 355 0 0
RDSB £28 By 2017Q2 Results (with Brent stable around $60) and £30+ 2017 full year Results (with Brent stable around $65) imho.


FJ

GOT ANY LINKS TO BACK UP THE 2800 Target

cheers

[waldron] 14/1/2017 12:07

YOU SHELL B SINGING A LONG

[mnomis] 13/1/2017 14:53

Agree - div will be maintained, but it aint coming out of free cash flow.

[sarkasm] 12/1/2017 19:19

Deutsche Bank Analysts See Natural Gas Demand Underpinned By Asia In 2017
January 06, 2017, 04:02:42 AM EDT By MT Newswires, MT Newswires

Shutterstock photo

Natural gas demand is better than expected heading into 2017, offsetting sharp increases in global supplies favoring top suppliers such as Royal Dutch Shell ( RDS.A ), according to Deutsche Bank Markets Research analysts Lucas Herrmann and Tom Robinson in a Jan. 6 note.

"One year into the capacity surge and the tone around LNG markets is definitely firmer than we had anticipated a year ago. With the build in supply hardly started less certain in our minds, however, is whether it has made a material difference to the pre-2020 outlook," the analysts said.

At 25-30 mtpa (million metric tons per annum) of new supply over each of the next four years the capacity build remains at a level where, absent an unexpected demand event, it is hard in the extreme to see quite how the excess will be absorbed.

Supply build into 2017, some slippage but largely at the margin Thinking about the year ahead 2017 does, however, strike us as shaping up to be a better year than we might initially have feared."

Surging Asian and Middle Eastern buying has seen demand growth in LNG markets improve markedly, the report said, noting that Chinese-led global demand rose 7% through 2016, nearly triple the level seen in 2015.

"Asian interest high and Pacific Basin spot prices moving north of $9/mmbtu (million British Thermal Units), basin differentials have expanded materially in recent weeks widening to over $3/mmbtu. Admittedly, given continued capacity build spot strength feels unlikely to last much beyond Q1'17. A nice near term fillip, however, for those who can play not least global market leader, Shell."

The views and opinions expressed herein are the views and opinions of the author and do not necessarily reflect those of Nasdaq, Inc.

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