Shell Share Discussion Threads

[r72] 08/11/2016 14:13

Anyone know what the likely impact of a trump victory would make on the share price of Shell/other oil and gas companies?

[losos] 08/11/2016 10:28

fjgooner - your post 267 very interesting, thanks for digging that one out of the plethora of news, mis-statements, PR bumph, and general spiel that is the result of too much media output by writers who have to write something (whether true or not ha ha.)

[supermarky] 07/11/2016 17:19

Juicy xd on Thursday. I'm sure you guys already know lol. If the criminal that is hc gets in this may give markets a little surge. Opec later this month and oil inventories this week. Anyway I bought 3000 on friday afternoon.

[careful] 06/11/2016 16:04

A good post.
Although it breaks the golden rule of most advfn posters.
'Posters are usually expected to know nothing about their subject.'

[waldron] 06/11/2016 15:28

CHEERS FJ

NICE POST

[fjgooner] 06/11/2016 14:06

careful - here's some commentary straight from the horse's mouth.

I came across the following interesting post earlier by a chap called lexbacker on seekingalpha.com.

FJ

---------------------------------------

I work at Shell, where I was in charge of the strategy department of Upstream International from 2012-2015. This comment is written by me on personal title, for information purposes only. It does not necessarily reflect Shell's opinion, and it is not intended to encourage you to trade, buy or sell RDSA or RDSB.

We are currently still right in the middle of executing a "swap separated in time" (acquiring BG and then divesting $30bln of multiple non-core portfolio assets in the period 2016-2018). In parallel we are materially reducing the operating cost structure of the business, demonstrating investment capital discipline, and focusing our growth portfolio on deepwater oil and chemicals, where we believe we enjoy a sustainable competitive advantage.

The growth focus on chemicals is also intended to maintain our upstream-downstream balance in our integrated company. This balance may have shifted a bit towards upstream with the acquisition of BG which contained no downstream assets.

In parallel we are reducing our CO2 footprint and gradually positioning for New Energies.
Although I expect more volatility in the short term (oil price, staff redundancies, natural gas price), I strongly believe that we are acting in the best interest of our shareholders. Our CEO is adamant what he wants to reshape Shell into a world-class investment case, and frankly we all work towards that aim. I read it to mean long-term delivery of both dividend and a rising share price, whereas our delivery of shareholder value in the past two decades may have primarily been achieved via dividend.

Well before the end of this decade, I believe oil price will reach a level that encourages enough investment in new oil and gas supplies. Lead times of oil and gas project is around 3-4 years between investment decision and the project coming onstream. Hence, upstream projects coming onstream today took their final investment decision before the oil price collapsed in 2014. The industry started to substantially reduce its investment levels in 2015. From 2018 onwards we will see far fewer new projects coming on stream, against a backdrop of gradually rising global oil demand. Prices are likely to respond to this at some point.

During a recent oil conference in London, virtually all industry players (including Saudi's oil minister and the CEO of TOT) warned about the risk of oil supply shortage before the end of the decade. Except Rex Tillerson of XOM. He believes that oil shale in North America can respond quickly enough to resolve any potential global oil supply shortage, even at long-term low oil prices. I disagree. Oil shale in North America will indeed respond, but on its own it will not be enough to rebalance global supply and demand. Other sources of new supply will also be required and such other sources won't be developed at low oil prices.

National government budgets in Middle East can also not be sustained at long-term low oil prices. Sooner or (probably) later OPEC might come back to life.
My wife and I have invested around half of our current/liquid wealth in RDSA and intend to hold this (and reinvest its 7.5% dividend yield) in order to fund our children's university in due course. In the long-run, we believe RDSA will deliver more than dividend alone. We may be wrong, but if we are, it will cost us personally.

06 Nov 2016, 07:00

[waldron] 06/11/2016 10:21

AND WHAT IMPACT THE US ELECTION,COP 22 AND OPEC MEETING


SO MANY POTENTIAL POSITIVES AND DISAPPOINTMENTS

[waldron] 06/11/2016 09:38

careful

you kick it off with your strengths and weaknesses list

my view despite being positive long term

is of course tampered by CAP EX REDUCTION SPEED

US DOLLAR STRENGTH, ASSET SALE ABILITY AND TIMING,

OIL PRICE AND FREE CASH FLOW TO MENTION BUT A FEW

SO TO GIVE A CLEAR OPINION NOT EASY IMO

[careful] 06/11/2016 09:23

Where can we read opinion about Shell that is not planted by paid posters?
Seems they are like knotweed on all Shell threads.
We want independent opinions.

[rock star] 05/11/2016 07:02

Shell is the best supermajor along with Chevron. The problem is the sector has big problems coming in the coming years as peak oil is rapidly approaching.

[ariane] 04/11/2016 21:50

Friday, November 4, 2016

Oil prices settled at a six-week low on Thursday following several consecutive days of large price declines. The major catalysts this week were doubts over an OPEC deal and EIA data showing a record build up in crude oil stocks. The EIA said Wednesday that U.S. oil inventories rose by 14.4 million barrels last week, the largest gain in a single week since data collection began in the early 1980s. WTI plunged below $45 per barrel on the news and the five consecutive days of losses was the longest streak since June.

The data could be misleading, however. The huge buildup in inventories came largely because weekly imports spiked. Imports rose by about 2 million barrels per day last week after several weeks of hovering at below-average levels. The import spike was partially affected by bad weather, including a hurricane, and could be an anomaly. If that is the case, crude stocks probably won’t gain at similar rates in the weeks ahead.

Still, sentiment is negative after such a down week. "The persistent market dynamic of softer demand and stronger supply will become a more dominant driver of prices as the impact of OPEC's verbal interventions begins to fade and expectations for coordinated cuts are readjusted," BMI Research said in a note to clients.

OPEC deal probable, Citi says. Saudi Arabia and Russia are “hungry for an agreement,” Ed Morse, the head of commodity research at Citigroup, said this week. That means that OPEC and several non-OPEC countries will probably reach a deal at the end of the month to cut oil production. "We’re expecting the parties that need to do something to boost prices to be serious about deciding something," Morse said. For its part, OPEC said it was “deeply optimistic” this week that they would reach a deal.

Oil prices to stay below $60 per barrel in 2017. A Wall Street Journal survey of 14 investment banks predicts that oil prices will not rise above $60 per barrel for another year. The average forecast of the 14 respondents puts Brent oil prices at $56 per barrel in 2017 and WTI at $54. Those figures are down $1 per barrel from last month’s survey, and stand in stark contrast to forecasts from a year ago, which predicted oil to move above $70 per barrel this year.

Colonial Pipeline still closed. The largest pipeline ferrying gasoline around the U.S. has been closed since Monday due to an explosion. The Colonial Pipeline carries gasoline from the Gulf Cost to the Southeast and Northeast U.S., and its closure has led to a spike in gasoline futures. On Tuesday, gasoline futures spiked as much as 15 percent, the largest single day increase in nearly a decade, according to the WSJ. The pipeline’s operator had hoped to have it back up and running by this weekend but a small fire continued to burn as late as Thursday. Nearly two months ago, the pipeline was shut after a leak, a short outage that also led to higher gasoline prices in regional markets. The WSJ reports that more than 60 percent of U.S. fuel pipelines are more than 46 years old, posing questions around the integrity of some of the nation’s largest oil and gas conduits.

Attacks in Nigeria continue. Sabotage by the Niger Delta Avengers and other militant groups against oil infrastructure continue to pick up pace. The latest attack hit a flow station along Royal Dutch Shell’s (NYSE: RDS.A) Trans Forcados pipeline. In a statement the Niger Delta Avengers said that its attack was to warn oil companies that “there should be no repairs [to pipelines] pending negotiation/dialogue with the people of the Niger Delta.” U.S. intelligence officials told CNBC that the worrying thing for Nigeria is that Niger Delta militants could splinter, leading to ongoing attacks under no coherent umbrella, making them more difficult to control. Nigeria’s oil production recently rose to 1.9 million barrels per day but the attacks threaten to derail more gains.

North Sea oil production set to jump. Oil shipments from the aging North Sea could rise by 360,000 barrels per day between September and December of this year, taking output for the region up to 2.16 million barrels per day. The buildup of tankers in the North Sea is starting to clear, adding to the global surplus of supply and complicating the effects of a potential OPEC agreement on oil prices.

Solar stocks plunge on glut of panels. First Solar (NASDAQ: FSLR) saw its share price fall by 18 percent on Thursday, taking it multiyear lows, after it missed revenues and pointed to a global glut in solar panels. Prices for panels have declined 30 percent in large part due to a slowdown in demand from China, First Solar said.

U.S. presidential election poses market uncertainty. The S&P 500 has suffered a string of losses lately, which many attribute to jitters over uncertainty regarding the outcome of next week’s election. The markets seem to prefer Hillary Clinton over the uncertainty of Donald Trump, and indices have sunk as the campaign has tightened in recent days.

In our Numbers Report, we take a look at some of the most important metrics and indicators in the world of energy from the past week. Find out more by clicking here.

Thanks for reading and we’ll see you next week.

Best Regards,

Evan Kelly
Editor, Oilprice.com

P.S. – Natural gas is approaching a situation in which all factors point to a rebound, but oil trader Martin Tillier points at the markets’ tendency to overshoot. Martin warns that buyers should hold off a bit longer before scooping up natural gas futures. Find out where the real reversal for NatGas is taking place by claiming your risk-free 30 day trial on Oil and Energy Insider

[maywillow] 04/11/2016 07:54

Ex-dividend date RDS A and RDS B ADSs November 8,

[maywillow] 04/11/2016 07:26

Friday 4 November 2016 7:00am
Oil boss needs buyers to Shell out for assets
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Oil prices continue to hover stubbornly below $50-a-barrel (Source: Getty)

A brave face. That's the best way to describe this week's trading updates from Britain's two oil behemoths.

It’s now a familiar visage for BP's Bob Dudley and Shell's Ben van Beurden. Oil prices continue to hover stubbornly below $50-a-barrel, raising justifiable concerns about the companies’ ability to cover their dividends without substantial further cuts to capital spending.

Investors continue to back them, but both remain under pressure.

Paradoxically, given the pay row which engulfed BP’s boss earlier this year and the fact that Shell’s quarterly profit outstripped those of even the mighty Exxon Mobil, it may be Dudley who is in the slightly more advantageous position.

Read more: BP and Shell offer some reasons for optimism in the oil industry

He sold tens of billions of dollars of assets before the slump in crude prices, and is now beginning to explore a greater range of acquisitions, bidding for downstream assets in South Africa and elsewhere, according to insiders.

Contrast that with Shell, where only a fraction of a $30bn disposal target has been achieved after last year’s takeover of BG Group.

It is early days, of course, and Shell assets in Gabon and New Zealand should generate decent proceeds. Yet I’ve learnt that a North Sea portfolio being marketed for sale comes with at least $4bn of likely abandonment liabilities.

That financial millstone appears to have diminished the fields’ attractiveness to bidders, with at least one reported bidder – Neptune Oil and Gas – said to be on the verge of dropping out of the process.

True, Shell has 15 further asset sale processes underway – but with oil prices expected to remain depressed for some time amid doubts about Opec’s capacity to cut production, attaining top dollar looks a remote prospect.

‎More radical surgery at Shell may yet be necessary, even as Dudley focuses on the future. Who’d have thought it?

A BBB-rated chairman?

Viewed through the prism of Theresa May's utterances, it now seems strange that Sir Vince Cable was often dubbed the anti-business secretary.

Contrary to popular perception, many of Cable’s views on corporate governance and long-term industrial policy turn out to have been at the meeker end of the spectrum compared to the new PM.

The British Business Bank, set up by the Coalition Government, was among Cable's proudest projects. Now, as it seeks a new chairman to replace Ron Emerson, it needs to be much bolder than simply dipping again into the pot of tried-and-tested City grandees.

Read more: Parliament's Brexit watchdog to probe EU negotiation goals

Post-Brexit Britain requires a banking system prepared and equipped to back high-potential growth companies, not just thousands more mom-and-pop SMEs which do little for UK exports or wealth creation across the economy.

That’s why the current metric for measuring the BBB’s success – the volume of funds it dispenses – is misguided. Instead, executives, and the organisation’s overall performance, should be judged upon its ability to deliver support for homegrown scale-up businesses,

Ministers should remember that when they sign up the new chairman. It will send an important message about the future direction of Cable’s pet project – and its role in Britain’s economy.

Green’s warning signal

Is Sir Philip Green playing the long game with pension watchdogs?

That’s one explanation for the continuing absence of a settlement over the BHS retirement scheme deficit. Green, and the parent company of his high street fashion empire, are now embroiled in a potentially protracted legal process with the Pensions Regulator.

With the Bank of England signalling that the next move in interest rates will be up, Green might calculate that he can sit tight and hope the BHS deficit evaporates – sadly, much like its shops.

City A.M.'s opinion pages are a place for thought-provoking views and debate. These views are not necessarily shared by City A.M.

[maywillow] 03/11/2016 19:03

Shell Boosts Earnings in Q3/16 Following BG Acquisition

Source: The Energy Report



November 3, 2016 (Investorideas.com Newswire) Despite depressed oil prices, Royal Dutch Shell Plc announced strong Q3/16 earnings on Nov. 1. The company attributes the gains, in part, to the now-completed integration of BG Group Plc, which it acquired in February.
Shellcover11-3-16-630.jpg

"Royal Dutch Shell Plc's (RDS.A:NYSE; RDS.B:NYSE) biggest takeover, the subject of intense investor scrutiny during crude's collapse, is starting to pay off as Europe's largest oil company chalks up its highest profit in five quarters," Bloomberg reported after Shell released its Q3 results on Nov. 1.

"Royal Dutch Shell has cheered investors with a $1.4bn (£1.1bn) profit for the third quarter, as the takeover of BG Group boosted production and it rebounded from a massive $6.1bn loss caused by writedowns in the same period last year," energy editor Emily Gosden wrote in the Telegraph on Nov. 1.

The Bloomberg report went on to describe how, following the acquisition, Shell's "third-quarter results show that higher production, deeper cost cuts and tighter spending are boosting the bottom line."

"Gearing at the end of the third quarter 2016 was 29.2% versus 12.7% at the end of the third quarter 2015. This increase mainly reflects the impact of the acquisition of BG," Shell stated in its press release.

According to Bloomberg, Shell CFO Simon Henry stated that the company's Q3 production is up 25% over the previous year, to 3.6 million barrels of oil equivalent per day. BG has "ramped up" production to about 800,000 barrels a day.

Bloomberg also quoted analyst Oswald Clint of Sanford C. Bernstein & Co.: "Investors can finally see what the new Shell can do... the BG acquisition is finally delivering."

According to the Telegraph article, "Analysts at Barclays said strong cashflow, combined with the reduced operating and capital expenditure and divestments, 'should prove enough to reassure investors that Shell is well on its way to resetting the business post the BG deal.'"

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