Shell Share Discussion Threads

[chairman20] 23/10/2015 19:12

lazy question how much do we think the share drops as it goes xd

the answer is some combination of cash dividend + discount till
next quarter plus the big unknown sentiment

[whiskeyinthejar] 23/10/2015 16:44

I have a punt on Bg too.

I'm just not sure whether to buy more.

The problem seems to be gas prices have doubled down under because they say recently more gas is being exported as LNG so less gas is available for local market. So they are wary of even more Shell gas going for LNG as a result of the BG deal.

I'd have thought Shell can come to accommodation with regulator. Maybe they guarantee that a minimum amount of gas production will be for local sales?

[careful] 23/10/2015 16:11

If the deal goes ahead.

We can buy bg. shares today at £10.57.
For that we get £3.83cash + .45 RDSB shares at £14.98p.(equiv)

I had some of that today, a punt on the going through.
could nor resist RDSB at £15.

looking for a min 20% here.

[topdoc] 23/10/2015 14:56

Down due to market thinking BG deal might not go through ??

[diku] 23/10/2015 13:39

chiragmahe....some sort of mis match going on in the markets...BP strength but RDSB showing weakness....similar LLoy strength but Barc showing signs of weakness...

[fangorn2] 22/10/2015 13:06

Australian watchdog delays decision on Shell/BG deal

[chiragmahe] 22/10/2015 13:03

why is shell down but BP up?

[maywillow] 22/10/2015 08:58

OPEC Prepares to Drop the Hammer on US Producers

Blackwell Global Investments Limited
Thu, Oct 22 2015, 05:03 GMT
by Steven Knight | Blackwell Global Investments Limited
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The crude oil price slump over the past year has been a painful experience for many producers but OPEC’s strategy might finally be paying off as the cartel appears to be on the cusp of cutting off any further growth in the US shale industry.

The Baker-Hughes rig count has been an excellent predictor of activity within the US shale oil industry and the key metric has been sliding for some time. The reality is that the current shale oil boom was largely predicated upon oil prices above the key $50.00 a barrel level. Subsequently, oil prices below that key level have incentivised well shuttering and rig stand-downs.

Although OPEC’s strategy of maintaining supply has seen some stark economic consequences, it would appear that it is impacting the US shale industry’s output. US crude oil production has been steadily declining and supply has now reached a level not seen since late 2014. In fact, the International Energy Agency has forecast that demand for OPEC crude will grow in 2015. This would potentially give OPEC exactly what they were seeking….protection of their market share.

Market Outlook

However, the price that has been paid by the OPEC member states has been heavy, given the rapidly growing budgets deficits throughout the Middle East. Several states are faced with severe economic imbalances that will need to be rapidly resolved in the coming months. Subsequently, the time is now ripe for OPEC to reduce production to restore balance and a sustainable equilibrium price within global markets.

Still, the question remains, to what extent have US producers been damaged by OPEC’s over-supply strategy. Given that it has taken over 12 months for supply to decline to pre-2015 level’s the invariable answer is…not much. Despite the tremendous global oil glut and sharply depressed crude prices, US producers have still managed to increase their efficiency and productive capacity throughout the year.

Effectively, OPEC has managed to reset supply in the markets to pre-shale oil boom levels, but the productive capacity still remains and is likely to restart as soon as WTI prices climb. Subsequently, until the global macro-economy strengthens, any price rally will likely be seen off by an increase in the rig count.

It is clear that OPEC needs to view the shale oil sector as a production operation that isn’t going away any time soon. Unless the member states are prepared for protracted economic warfare (which they are not) all they have effectively done is delay any potential loss of market share. Subsequently, depressed oil prices are here to stay unless either side blinks or they embark upon introducing an equilibrium price that is competitive for all participants.

Ultimately, OPEC might think they have dropped the hammer on US shale oil producers, but all they have done is extend the pain that is to come.

Published On Thu, Oct 22 2015, 05:07 GMT Previous entries of Market Outlook

[moneysage] 21/10/2015 22:28

I think people just hanging on for the divi before it revisits yearly lows to make a bottom ready for 2016 turnaround rally.

[supermarky] 21/10/2015 20:32

Just awaiting the move up from 1850 range. Results shortly then xd!UKX also looking for direction. I'm reading it as lower high on double top after recent major push north. 6258 next support but who knows.

[moneysage] 21/10/2015 11:26

Where is everybody?

[sarkasm] 19/10/2015 18:15

TEHRAN--European oil companies are engaged in a fierce competition for the best oil and gas fields in Iran when Western sanctions are lifted, while American energy firms watch from the sidelines.

The contest has been evident this week at the first major oil-and-gas conference in Iran since world powers agreed to lift sanctions in July in exchange for curbs on the Persian Gulf nation's nuclear program.

Iran is looking for Western help to ramp its oil-and-gas industry back up after sanctions shaved more than 1 million barrels off its average daily production.

One by one, European executives got up to pitch their company's prowess. Total SA of France cited its long history of working with Iran before it left in 2010 because of sanctions. Eni SpA played a slick animated video showing off the company's deep-water drilling technologies used in Angola.

And Rainer Seele, chief executive of partially state-owned Austrian energy firm OMV, made a plea for getting his company back involved in a lucrative western gas field known as Cheshmeh Khosh, which it helped develop up until 2007.

"The competition will be very, very intense, if you see how many companies are queuing up over here in Iran," Mr. Seele told reporters after his presentation.

Meanwhile, American companies like Exxon Mobil Corp. and Chevron Corp. aren't part of the discussions--a fact underscored by their absence at this week's Iranian Petroleum and Energy Club Congress.

No American oil major has worked extensively in Iran since the 1979 revolution, and U.S. sanctions against Iran on terrorism and human rights issues will remain in effect after the lifting of nuclear-related sanctions. No U.S. oil company has had official business talks with Iran yet, and the firms say they are still unsure what kind of business they can conduct there.

Exxon Mobil Corp. said it has retained a lobbying firm to monitor the nuclear deal, although it says it isn't lobbying the U.S. government, while Chevron said the company "is continuing to review the agreement to fully understand its implications for the energy industry and the company."

The uncertainty gives European companies a head-start on U.S. firms as Iran's massive fossil fuel reserves are reopened to Western investment. Iran's resources are rare in that they are fairly cheap to develop, making them profitable even when crude prices are relatively low.

Iran's oil minister Bijan Zanganeh said Monday that technology supplied by foreign companies would play a key role in raising its output higher than its pre-sanctions levels of 4 million barrels a day, with a goal of someday hitting 5.7 million a day.

"The doors are open even to American companies," Mr. Zanganeh said Monday. But he added "they are still prohibited to invest" in Iran.

Meanwhile, European companies like Royal Dutch Shell PLC, BP PLC, and Total have sent high-level executives to Iran to speak to government officials in the past three months. Eni Chief Executive Claudio Descalzi went himself.

While European executives can't make business deals in Iran until sanctions are lifted, probably sometime early next year, they aren't forbidden from having talks with Iran. Eni kept an office open in Tehran, even after it abandoned operations there in 2011.

Iran's oil was first developed by European companies, first by BP PLC's predecessor Anglo-Persian Oil Co., and later by Shell, Total and Eni. In 2003, for example, Total produced about 50,000 barrels a day in Iran, more than any other Middle Eastern country the company worked in.

"When you go to Iran, they are Persian, they have a long memory," said Total Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanné in a September interview. "They know us very well...We are their historic partner."

One stumbling block could be Iran's system of allowing foreign involvement with their natural resources. The country's laws don't allow international companies to own Iranian oil and gas reserves. Instead, Iran gave companies contracts to develop fields, but the terms were long seen as onerous.

Iranian officials have said they are going to unveil new contracts that would last longer and allow more profit, in exchange for sharing more technology with Iranian companies. European companies say they will look into the fine print of the new contracts before jumping in--after most lost money under previous arrangements set up in the 1990s.

On Monday, some executives emphasized how willing they were to share their technology.

Stephane Michel, Total's exploration and production chief for the Middle East and North Africa, told the conference that his company was willing to share its experience in developing liquefied natural gas--something the Iranians are interested in to help them export.

Antonio Vella, chief of exploration and production at Italy's Eni SpA, said his company had already applied its innovative technologies of injecting sour gas to boost oil production in Iran--in the giant offshore South Pars field and the onshore Dakhovin reservoir.

They also had a mingled with hundreds of Iranian government and industry officials, eating a lunch of marinated chicken kebabs in a hotel ornamented with copies of ancient Persian bas-relief and the customary picture of Ruhollah Khomeini, the revolutionary ayatollah.

It is the kind of interaction in Iran that U.S. oil companies have avoided. Instead, American firms have been dusting off Iranian seismic data dating from 1970s, when they last worked in the country. Some U.S. companies are talking to contractors active in Iran or reviewing whether they can send non-American staff there, according to company officials familiar with the matter.

The uncertainty has led to some awkward exchanges, as Iranian officials increasingly turn up at functions held by big American and European companies. At a different industry conference in Europe this year, two American oil-company officials ran into a top Iranian official and had to quickly turn the conversation to merits of Persian food.

When speaking to Iranians, "we've been told to stick to weather, food and family," an American oil-company official said.

Write to Benoît Faucon at [e-mail]



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(END) Dow Jones Newswires

October 19, 2015 11:12 ET (15:12 GMT)

[funtimejonny] 16/10/2015 20:48

Wish the problem of the cheap shalers would go away.still a concern long term.

[11_percent] 16/10/2015 19:47

A lot, if not ALL, producers, are hurting.

Saudi, want Market share.
Now they are stating to think.

Putin is coming for them.

[supermarky] 16/10/2015 19:26

Struggling to beat 18.50 atm. results shortly.

[zho] 13/10/2015 08:51

Questor share tip: Hold Shell as balance strong enough to support dividend

[m_k_hubbert] 09/10/2015 15:29

Added more in October, most @1625p which is now looking good; furthermore was lucky enough to catch more or less the 'low point' when ordering heating oil which cost only just over half what it did last year.

[wad collector] 09/10/2015 10:29

Never mind the price being Georgian , it is firmly Victorian today.
It does rather reinforce the view that the market is full of irrationality and volatility , and only mugs panic and sell when it drops . I suspect most of us have sat firmly on our RDS holdings over the last 6 months and not worried too much , and the lucky brave have added in the share price depths.

[11_percent] 09/10/2015 08:20

Looking good, am now above my average, with 7% divi.

[whiskeyinthejar] 07/10/2015 15:59

Investing.com | Oct 07, 2015 14:37 GMT
U.S - Crude oil prices pared back gains on Wednesday after the latest U.S. storage data showed a larger than expected domestic inventory build last week.