Serco Share Discussion Threads

[leeson31] 10/11/2016 10:58

this looks poised for a run now...

[leeson31] 10/11/2016 09:45

i did y/day!! :-)

[davr0s] 10/11/2016 09:36

Has to go soon. Why not buy some more to help it over the line?

[leeson31] 10/11/2016 09:18

this time, this time!! :-) a run to ~155 :-)

[davr0s] 08/11/2016 08:40

Hi Leeson - I'd be happy with any of those figures!

[leeson31] 08/11/2016 08:38

hopefully not :-)

little bit of resistance around 190p, but after that recovery is at ~225p

[davr0s] 08/11/2016 08:35

That's me in this morning. Can hold back this level much longer, can it?

[leeson31] 07/11/2016 09:10

making intrday and recent highs.. a push ffrom here imo will entice further buyers for a technical trade too

[leeson31] 03/11/2016 15:14

cool, hopefully we'll do well.

i think a close above 140p and it should clice up through the 150's... id say 163p first target, then 175p-180p....

cheers

[mobtheplod] 03/11/2016 14:16

Agreed Leeson, I added a little while ago and I await the next update - so far very impressed with Mr Soames and his steering this ship to recovery - well hopefully. DYOR etc.

[leeson31] 03/11/2016 13:20

new highs..i think were off... again :p

[freddie ferret] 28/10/2016 17:42

Bowl is near symetrical IMHO.

[leeson31] 25/10/2016 18:41

Higher highs. Next leg up due imo.

[leeson31] 19/10/2016 13:19

looking like a touch into the 140's afoot...

chart primed for next leg up imo

[leeson31] 18/10/2016 16:37

138.80p UT auction close... a higher closing high... roll on 152 then 175 :-)

[masurenguy] 18/10/2016 16:12

Added here earlier this afternoon!

[leeson31] 18/10/2016 12:30

higher highs, breaking out imo

[leeson31] 17/10/2016 17:39

Agree. Im in now. I like last weeks vols and chart rise. Odey asset mgmt over 5pc now too. Big upside...175 to 210 imo.... great fundamental recovery play...

Should get news v soon i would think on the nhs 600m contract... great results back in aug too..

[lionheart79] 17/10/2016 17:13

Seems like a lot of folks here forgetting that the drop in the £ will substantially help the bottom line? I would have thought that's as good a reason as any for continued strength.

[palwing13] 15/10/2016 18:24

Not thought so highly on Oz land, which could knock confidence. Beware?

[freddie ferret] 14/10/2016 17:07

Time someone posted on this thread it's going to far down my favourites page.
Er well what to say?
Well the bowl still seems to be intact in a stepwise fashion.
Hopefully it continues to surprise on the upside.
Seems we get updates quarterly and the last (half yearly) was on the 04/08.
So I guess the next is out early Nov.
That's how I see it anyway.

[dangersimpson2] 29/9/2016 21:53

That's certainly possible, that essentially is the efficient market hypothesis. But if you believe in at least the semi-strong form of the EMH then you don't buy individual shares.

I personally doubt that the market is efficient when it comes to Serco. My evidence is that when they announced that they had a one off gain of £15m due to contract renegotiation then the market cap went up by £100m+. That makes me think that in this case the market is wrong to the upside.

[2magpies] 29/9/2016 19:12

dangersipson

Agree, but all of this is already known to the market, and therefore already in the price, one would have thought.

sp has declined from appx 675p. The Barts situation can help recovery.

Remains to be seen if potential predators can see a tasty morsel here.

[dangersimpson2] 29/9/2016 14:14

In many ways SRP have done the right thing. They have tried to shore up their balance sheet with a RI and sold off the BPO business and renegotiated some contact terms. The issue I have is with the value the market has placed on those actions:

- There are now 50% more shares in issue.

- The BPO business generated c20% of the group EBITDA.

Which means looking at past chart values doesn't represent the current state of the business structure.

- Most of the good news has been due to one-off events e.g.

...the improved performance was driven largely by factors which are unlikely to repeat, such as the favourable resolution of commercial issues and certain contracts running on longer than expected.

Whereas the bad news is stuff that is going to continue for sometime:

- increasingly competitive market as shown by competitor profit warnings.

- £429m of provisions on balance sheet, £154m current year. These are costs that they have taken through the income statement but the cash flow impact has not yet hit. This is £429m of cash that is going to go out of the door in the next few years. The future income statements may show a profit but they will have to generate a whole lot of it even to be cash flow neutral. In reality debt is going to pile up again whatever the reported profits in the next few years.

This means that the balance sheet still isn't particularly strong and if there is another downturn in trading then they may need a further capital injection.

[2magpies] 29/9/2016 12:25

SRP chart seems to be somewhat reverse of Capita and Mitie: they were both a lot higher and have recently plummeted.

SRP had a long plummet already and is showing signs of recovering, recently. Bad news already in for SRP?

Perhaps consolidation in the sector?

Will SRP become a takeover target? (or is stakebuilding already happening?)