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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sdi Group Plc | SDI | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| -1.30 | -2.39% | 53.20 | 16:35:20 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 54.50 | 54.50 | 54.50 | 53.20 | 54.50 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| ELECTRONIC & ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 14/3/2024 13:54 by worldwidet A change from rivaldo's boring unimportant copy paste contributions...A CEO without M&A expertise. Executives who don't buy shares because they supposedly have too low a salary to buy shares. Is this what SDI needs?I sticking with it... not investable (my personal opinion). 2 investors met with the new CEO and CFO and spoke at length. Read and form your own opinion here. From the report: "...On Stephen Brown and Strategy: SDI Group's investment thesis changed from being a serial acquirer to a turnaround company. Right now the company is at an inflection point, and I leave the meeting not knowing what the business model of the "new SDI" is going to be. Are they going to go back to their past business model of serial acquirer (inorganic growth), or are they going to pivot to an industrial holding business model (organic growth)? I would like the answer to be the first option. However, the new CEO seems to have the right qualities for the second strategy (he has a background in operations and product development, and would make a great COO), but he does not have the qualities needed to lead a serial-acquirer (Mike was an expert in financial engineering). Everything will depend on the person they bring in to lead the M&A, his capabilities and, above all, how much they let him do and undo. We shall see..." The original is in Spanish you have to translate it. Here is the full length: |
Posted at 22/2/2024 11:48 by rivaldo Amusing that WorldwideT feels so desperately the need to have a dig at me when I'm merely acting as the messenger in factually posting others'/institutionaWorldwideT might do himself a favour by sticking to the facts rather than getting personal. Almost all my shares were acquired in the 10p days, and like any sensible investor I've taken nice profits along the way. And I perceive that there may be good money to be made here from this point, whether or not there are short-term bumps in the road, so will continue to post here when there's something meaningful to say or something interesting happens. |
Posted at 07/11/2023 11:43 by rivaldo Good to see the CEO buying back £50,000 of shares here at 116p.Hopefully this is indeed another "signal" to investors following the AGM statement, which stated that H1 trading is in line and (even better at this stage): "the Board expects that the results for the full year will be delivered in line with market expectations" |
Posted at 23/10/2023 18:38 by worldwidet Hope is not a good companion in a deep recession.The next 3 years will show whether good companies are really good companies. The last few years of zero interest rates and helicopter money, which have exploded debt at all levels, have ensured that at first glance there are only good companies. But the framework conditions have changed completely. And out of 10 apparently good companies, only 1 or 2 will turn out to be really good in the end. I don't believe that SDI with its current structures and management is a good company. The next few years will work like a big shakeout. It can get pretty damn ugly here. Upside gap up to 100p.close then further sell off towards 40-60p. Possibly a profit warning or news of the CEO or Chairman retiring. There will definitely be some kind of downward impulse. Why take massive AIM risks when there is surely 5-6% in bonds? It is pure greed because many investors have learned in the last years of cheap money that there are no alternatives to shares. Times have changed! I'll stay comfortably at 3-5% safe yields with short-dated bonds on the sidelines. The risk-return profile of equities remains unattractive! My opinion! |
Posted at 15/10/2023 15:01 by worldwidet "This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades. While we hope for the best, we prepare the Firm for a broad range of outcomes so we can consistently deliver for clients no matter the environment."Jamie Dimon, CEO JPM Exactly the right environment in which the stupid small investor money thinks it has to play the investment hero on the illiquid AIM market ... Executives have understood that the time have changed and continue to stay far away from shares. Only the stupid small investor who thinks he knows the business better than the executives tries to buy every dip. Stay away as long as the executives do not buy strongly... |
Posted at 29/9/2023 12:47 by worldwidet Good investors recognise when a paradigm shift has taken place and a decade-long cycle of interest rate cuts has come to an end.A good investor recognises when the framework conditions have turned 180 degrees and the management and corporate strategy are overwhelmed by the new situation. We are not talking about a short recession like in 2020 after Covid and central banks that then bring the interest rate close to 0 and flood the markets with money. What happens in the next 1-3 years will have an impact for the next decades. Feel free to say today that I am exaggerating with my pessimism. But look at the bond markets because they tell you what will happen. I would advise investors to sit on a mountain of money and buy a few ounces of gold and see what happens in the next few years. I think it's going to get pretty ugly. Just my humble opinion and I don't make recommendations as a matter of principle. The SDI share price seems to prove me right. I'm out of here again and will take my time to see what happens. |
Posted at 24/8/2023 07:57 by worldwidet I would have found it expedient to replace the CEO. Mike did his job at SDI and paved the way for retirement when he sold almost all his shares.A new CEO capable of taking SDI to a new level would have been better in my view. I have my doubts whether Mike Creedon is capable of taking SDI to the next level. Mike is the type who likes to just keep doing what he is doing but that will not be enough at sdi. The next 10 years will be much harder for SDI than the last 10, but let's just wait and see what happens. Currently I see no reason to buy here. Neither do the executives, for that matter. Large institutional investors have sold under large volumes. Currently, the stupid small money is buying the share price shakily upwards under low volume. I expect much lower share price in SDI in the coming recession and a market-wide sell-off when large institutional investors have to adjust their risk budgets into 5% safe bond yields. |
Posted at 09/8/2023 09:53 by worldwidet Don't forget that talks are currently underway between SDI management and institutional investors. SDI has a funny tradition of talking extensively to institutional investors in the days leading up to the company's presentation to retail investors. Why is that? But today these investors are selling shares... Is that good and reassuring?Mistakes like the Monmouth takeover happen when a single person, in this case the CEO, tries to do everything on his own. Mike wants to fight alone on all fronts and seems to have a big problem sharing responsibility. The talk on page 22 of the current presentation about a strong M&A pipeline is also not very credible. If SDI had this strong M&A pipeline, they would not have gone 11 months without an acquisition. The problem is the lack of liquidity. SDI has accumulated debt with probably too expensive acquisitions in the last 2 years. The interest burden has more than tripled and there is hardly any cash in the account. SDI would need acquisitions in the range of £12-16m to keep the M&A wheel turning. Where is this money going to come from to finance these acquisitions? More loans/debt? So that interest charges continue to double at the extremely high interest rates? The M&A track record has also taken a severe Monmouth crack. Who knows what M&A mistakes the coming recession will bring to the table. It is never good when all the responsibility and risk is concentrated in one person/CEO. Hopefully after Mike Creedon we will see a CEO who is willing to invest his own money in SDI shares. |
Posted at 17/5/2023 10:04 by worldwidet Institutional investors now work heavily on the basis of risk budgeting. Risk budgeting is one of the latest methods of portfolio optimisation and is to be used in conjunction with the widely used capital budgeting method.The problem, however, is that risk budgeting forces institutional investors to close or sharply reduce their positions after a certain loss threshold. Especially in the case of microcaps, which tend to be sold off particularly strongly under low volume in market breadth sell-offs, this is problematic if in this phase the large institutional investors are also forced to bring their shares into the market in which there are already no more buyers. The shares would have been in the best hands with SDI Management, as was the case with JDG, for example. I think it is a mistake for Mike and Ford to sell their shares to large institutional investors. If Mike and the management think SDI will continue to do well and the valuation is attractive then they should have kept the shares and provided continuity. But they put their shares in the hands of institutional investors who are driven by other motives and who have to work with risk budgets. The management should own massive amounts of shares, preferably bought with their own money, so that they are in the same boat as the investors. It is always celebrated here by the bulls when big institutional investors buy but I would much rather see management buying massively. the fake purchases Mike and the CFO make where they buy a few shares for little money is meaningless. At VLX, Rothschild also made one of these fake purchases and then the share fell by another 25-30%. If Mike and management are convinced that SDi is undervalued then we should see buying in the £100k range. Managers earning £150-200k a year should be able to buy more than for 6-7k shares. Don't get me wrong. SDI is not going to go bankrupt. It's a great company. Mike is doing a great job. But given the economic and monetary environment and the structural problems at SDI, I don't think the risks are adequately priced. At prices around 110-130p, the risk premium could be attractive. In the short term, the stock appears to be technically oversold, which could cause some traders to drive the price in the short term, but in the medium term I see strong downside potential in the 100-120p range. Those with long term investments need not worry SDI will grow into valuation in the very long term. But in the coming 12-18 months I could see even better entry points than the current ~150p. My opinion. We will see what happens. |
Posted at 25/1/2023 10:46 by worldwidet @steeplejack I appreciate you as an experienced investor who is not blinded by the 12 year bull market but also focuses on the risks.SDI only came on the list of many new investors after 2020 when SDI was one of the big COVID winners from one-off deals in this area (ATIK). The "new" SDI investors, some of whom jumped on the bandwagon very late after 2020, are now trying to continue the success story and the growth that SDI made in its early phase into the future. But the data shows that SDI can no longer just take over small companies with 4-6x multiples, but must increasingly focus on expensive acquisitions of larger companies to achieve a comparable impact on the balance sheet in M&A growth. The last acquisitions were over 7x multiples and SDI will increasingly have to compete with JDG HLMA DPLM and PE funds for good acquisitions. It should be noted that the last 12 years the economy grew strongly when interest rates dropped to 0 and the economy was well supplied with money. In this environment, SDI has also been able to grow its FCF well organically. Now the economy is in the process of cooling down very strongly and this could go on for several years. SDI has built up a mountain of debt with the last acquisitions and the FCF is not growing strongly enough to finance larger acquisitions. Yes it is nice when because of a few thin lines in a major mainstream paper by an investor who has freshly invested in SDI 300p price targets are proclaimed and the SDI price bounces in the short term by 7-8%. But I think it might be prudent to reduce risk in the face of a recession ahead as the CEO and Chairman have done. SDI investors are very spoiled. Everyone expects SDI to beat forecasts and continue to grow at 30%. I would imagine that there will be disappointments in the next 1-2 years if the risk of a recession materializes. 100-120p could well be realistic if panic breaks out in the stock markets because something systemic in the financial markets has broken under the interest burden. Many are waiting for the next M&A RNS but I see it critically. SDI will continue to build up the debt mountain with another acquisition and in a weakening economy and a phase in which FCF from organic growth is lacking, there will be less and less financial power available to keep M&A growth high. If SDI wants to grow further by 30% which is what the investors expect and what the management expects (~8-9% organic 20% M&A) then many and large acquisitions have to be made and financed. I wonder where this FCF should come from if organic growth increasingly disappears. The interest rate structure and the leading indicator are good signposts of what could still happen. In such a time I see CASH as the best investment to wait at the safe edge and to grab if the big panic starts because the high expectations that are currently priced in by the stock markets do not materialize. I pull back again and wait and see what happens in the next 16 months. |
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