Prostrakan Share Discussion Threads

[typo56] 09/9/2009 07:12

ProStrakan is today cut to neutral from outperform by Credit Suisse.

[the_doctor] 08/9/2009 18:06

Ah, I see, not straightforward. Thanks

[typo56] 08/9/2009 17:59

Being positioned 329th does not guarantee entry. A stock has to be 325th or above to guarantee entry. A position of 329th may qualify for entry if enough FTSE350 stocks have fallen to 376th or lower (the auto exit level).

The FTSE Ground rules make good bedtime reading. Start at the bottom of page 17!

[the_doctor] 08/9/2009 17:48

Positioned at 329th would put it within the 100+250, no?

any idea why the auto-entry line is at 325?

(useful link, thanks)

[typo56] 08/9/2009 17:41

Apart from the transition period I'm not sure it makes a lot of difference after the event either.

Other stocks have risen a bit today, such as LAM, so to me it looks unlikely that PSK is going to make it into the FTSE250 this time around, but it will go on the reserve list so may get a chance to play if one of FTSE350 players get sent off.

[the_doctor] 08/9/2009 17:12

....at 309m, it would be well above some of the stocks that were considered borderline, so looks like it is in...

That explains why it wasnt falling back. Lesson learnt there, thanks Typo

Still overpriced though IMO. Valued at about £330m when allowing for debt.
That fully prices in all expected growth over the next couple of years and they're going to have to make several acquisitions to maintain growth in the longer-term.

If you wanted to raise funds though equity, then getting upgraded into the FTSE250 must be a great way to facilitate that!?


edit: looked at a couple of co.s that got promoted in the last round. Didnt appear to make a lot of difference after the event.

[the_doctor] 08/9/2009 16:11

Typo, I get the impression someone is holding this up to get it into the FTSE250/350. It would aid selling if youre an inst, since probably easier to sell when upgraded, than when not.
My reasoning is that L2 looks like someone is trying to help it finish high.

Just doing a bit of reading up and apparently insts do buy up co.s so they rise an index, then short, push them out and close!

[the_doctor] 08/9/2009 15:36

Just dont see why people continue buying at this level.
Sure, much of the rise has been warranted, but is there much scope for further gains over the next 12 months? Not IMO.
Still, if nobody bought at peaks, the rest of us wouldnt be able to sell out!

[the_doctor] 08/9/2009 12:16

Exactly... but then if they waited, others could pump up the price, knowing there were buyers waiting!

They must have a system and like you say, it no doubt smoothes it

[typo56] 08/9/2009 12:08

It's a common belief that trackers buy in anticipation. Whilst I've no evidence to dispute the idea why would they do it? They risk mistracking, unless they hedge in some way.

[the_doctor] 08/9/2009 11:26

'bumps are quite well ironed out'

yes, that's what I'd expect. Although it could I suppose mean trackers are now in and holding ie. they've mopped up any sellers.

[typo56] 08/9/2009 11:22

Quarterly review is announced tomorrow (usually around 5pm) and is based on closing prices today.

I'm not a great advocate of the idea that tracker funds will cause the price to rise when a stock gets promoted into the FTSE350. Sometimes you see the opposite effect, perhaps because being a big fish in the SmallCap tracker pond is more influential than being a minnow in the FTSE350 tracker lake!

As the aim of a tracker fund is to track, a low risk point for them to trade is the closing auction before the changes take effect - ie closing auction on Friday 18th. It then doesn't matter from the point of view of tracking the index what price they pay, as the index reweightings are based on the closing prices. Traders tend to be clued up to this these days which means the bumps are quite well ironed out. At one time these closing auctions were a mine for some great trades.

[the_doctor] 08/9/2009 11:07

Thanks typo - depends how others do too I suppose

And a couple of other Qs if I may...

- what's the cutoff date?
- any idea how trackers go about buying for it? since if they're forced, traders could screw them out of cash by taking in and out of the 250

TIA!

[the_doctor] 08/9/2009 10:47

MACD (standard on ADVFN pro chart) looking like it is just about to cross over (MACD on above chart is set up differently)

RSI turning down

I still think this will head back to around 120p

Depends how things go in the markets as a whole perhaps.

[the_doctor] 04/9/2009 14:21

Just taken a look at Alliance Pharma. On track to deliver a profit of about £6m this year and market cap less than a 10th of this one!

[the_doctor] 03/9/2009 12:45

The intraday share price does now seem to follow the FTSE, so it may be that 250 trackers have already bought in?

[the_doctor] 03/9/2009 11:30

Interesting angle, I'd not considered that.
Would make sense for insts to hold it above the threshold, forcing trackers to take the stock off their hands at a higher price?? (or simply keep if they didnt want).

I wonder how much flexibility the trackers have. I'm sure they'd not buy if they felt someone had pushed it up knowing they had to??

[typo56] 03/9/2009 10:22

If they are still at or above this level at close next Tuesday there's a good possibility they will be promoted to the FTSE250 this month.

[the_doctor] 03/9/2009 10:13

thanks

That was at 122p and even then 'KBC Peel Hunt... suggests the recent high price 'may provide an opportunity to take profits''

I tend to agree. Holding is one thing, but buying at this price???

Even directors are selling now and I think there's a high chance of them issuing stock to pay down debt or make an acquisition.

[investinggarden] 03/9/2009 09:45

Buy recommendation from Growth Company Investor

recommendation from Growth Company Investor

[the_doctor] 02/9/2009 17:04

Directors selling their stock...

[the_doctor] 02/9/2009 11:47

Well, it is starting to show signs of weakness IMO.

I'm still expecting a pullback to approx 130p
News of filing may cause a bump, but it is expected and therefore should already be priced in.

[the_doctor] 31/8/2009 10:35

"Galashiels-headquartered ProStrakan is focusing on a series of key product launches over the next three years and Totten said the group would also be seeking to acquire the "next generation" of drugs for its pipeline. It is looking to buy the rights to niche drugs which are at an advanced stage in their development and have strong sales potential late in the development phase. "The next steps are more products than geographies," Totten said"

So, they are planning acquisitions.
They have a decent cash pile - but only because of a larger amount of debt.

I'm unsure if they could use this cash to make acquisitions? Why have they drawn down more debt if they've got £28m or so in cash??
Any thoughts?

Going buy consensus EPS, they're now standing at 100x for 2010
Yes, profits are expected to grow, although as yet, it is unclear where new drivers will come from after the current batch of launches slows.
The pipeline in itself is limited, so this is perhaps where acquisitions will come in.
... and that will cost money.

They're doing great, but keeping it going can be the biggest challenge. Interesting.