Prostrakan Share Discussion Threads

[the_doctor] 30/8/2009 08:29

Well done to the company - and the future looks bright

Looking at the testosterone market, Teva also has a gel in late stage development, so I'm unconvinced about the opportunity there.
Similarly, the fentanyl market is becoming increasingly competitive. There is also a reasonable risk of regulatory setbacks there.
Global Abstral sales are forecast to peak at about $200m
Given that PSK only gets royalties, it will only be getting a few £m for the first years, peaking at about £15m out to 2020.

Useful of course and the company will be profitable, but it'll need earnings of around £20m pa to justify this valuation ultimately

Near term years will largely be associated with paying off debt

So, IMO (just IMO) they'll need a few more growth driver products in.
With the share price strong, I'm expecting to see shares issued for an acquisition and/or to pay off debt. It would seem a good move.

We'll see....

[the_doctor] 28/8/2009 16:40

£320m market cap

[the_doctor] 28/8/2009 15:50

Not a doctor, but yes, agree about the market!
Only taken a relatively small position for those reasons.

[typo56] 28/8/2009 15:47

the_doctor - By your title I suspect you know a bit about this field.

Never understimate the ignorance and stupidity of the market. I think I've probably lost the most on stocks I understood, only to be proven to have been right in the end!

[the_doctor] 28/8/2009 12:13

Added to short...

Allowing for a bit more spiking upwards, but I'm expecting selling to kick in, which will be followed by more profit taking, stops being hit and a bit of panic.... (maybe)

[the_doctor] 28/8/2009 08:54

MACD about to turn down?

I'm looking for about 120p

I'd add that while I'm shorting for a dip, that wont affect any long term results for holders :o)

[the_doctor] 27/8/2009 15:12

Always makes me wonder what chumps buy at the top of spikes

Fair enough, dont sell, but buy!?

The prospect of further major gains above 150p is pretty slim IMO.

I guess some may be shorters forced to close?

[the_doctor] 27/8/2009 09:13

Well, you're right in that while I dont expect a lot from Fortigel, that will take years to become evident.

Still, I do think a lot is now priced in. Market cap + debt = £330m odd!

[typo56] 26/8/2009 20:40

I'd be inclined to hold off on the shorting just yet. The news is likely to get positive spin in the press in the next few days and there will be broker updates. Already the BBC headline is "Testosterone gel deal worth £130m".

[the_doctor] 26/8/2009 18:08

On that basis, I went short before close.

In part to offset some longs.

Not after a huge move, but I think this should drop back a bit.
Fortigel isnt a great product IMO.

& the share price has risen too much.
The broker targets are 12 month.

[the_doctor] 26/8/2009 17:10

Perhaps this should be taken into account re Numis' comments?

'Corporate Brokers The Company announces today that it has appointed J.P. Morgan Cazenove Limited as Financial Adviser and Corporate Broker to work alongside Numis Securities Limited.'

I wonder why JPMC taken on.

This IMO has the hallmarks of using equity to make an acquisition.
The rise is like BTG's before acquiring PTI.

[the_doctor] 26/8/2009 17:03

I cant see why much is expected from Fortigel.

Solvay's AndroGel dominates the US market.

Testim is only doing ok and Androderm not up to much
So, Fortigel would already have to compete with these established players.

By 2015, generic AndroGel will wipe out the market.

I estimate that Endo will barely even cover costs (incl. milestones).
& bet the royalty rate is very low, otherwise the deal just wont work for them.
Perhaps why much of the deal is in sales target milestones - I imagine they'll be out of reach in all likelihood.

Apologies for the bearish comments. I've not looked at Fortigel for a while.

[the_doctor] 26/8/2009 16:42

and a conflicting view from Noble (albeit pre today's deal)

Tue Aug 25, 2009 2:20pm BST Email | Print | Share| Single Page[-] Text [+]

More Business & Investing News... Shares in ProStrakan Group (PSK.L) shed 4.9 percent as Noble cuts its rating for the specialty pharmaceuticals company to "negative" from "neutral" in the wake of the firm's recent first-half results.

In a note, Noble points out that ProStrakan's interim profits were below expectations with uninspiring trends for its key product Sancuso, a transdermal patch used in the treatment of cancer patients.

The broker says it has downgraded its 2010 profit estimates for ProStrakan by 55 percent and sees a deal for the group's testerone gel product, Fortigel as critical to steer comfortably clear of a debt squeeze, which looks likely should Sancuso or its Abstral pain treatment disappoint

Noble says that with the stock trading at around 13 times unrisked 2012 EV/EBITDA, ProStrakan is at a 50 percent premium to peers and at such inflated levels it would book profits on the share's recent rally and switch to Hikma Pharmaceuticals (HIK.L). Hikma shares are down 0.4 percent

[the_doctor] 26/8/2009 16:26

IMO now would be a good time for PSK to make a small acquisition.
Strip out the costs from the acquisition and leverage its growing position.
Equity high and target acquisitions cheap.

[the_doctor] 26/8/2009 14:51

"Last month Numis analyst Jonathan Kwok initiated coverage of the company with a 180p target price, more than double the level shares were trading at when he released the note, predicting that the next 18 months would be transformational.
Kwok said the company's growth was better than any of the 20 international peers he was comparing it to. "If the market doesn't take notice, trade buyers will," he told clients.
Shares have already reacted. After hitting a recent low of 56p in March, shares bounced back and hit an all time high of 129p last week"

Good call from JK

I personally think it has got a bit ahead of itself for now, but we'll see.

[typo56] 26/8/2009 14:35

A bit early to jump I'd have thought. Wait for the press tomorrow.

[the_doctor] 26/8/2009 14:31

Well done holders.
Considered a punt here at ~60p
Didnt for some reason or other!

[veryhappy] 26/8/2009 14:30

Jumped

:>

[faraway] 25/8/2009 08:31

Looks to be solid with very good prospects!

[ricartonl] 25/8/2009 00:00

No mention of results? Everyone must be quietly happy!

Last time I looked at this thread as the end of March. If only I'd put a grand in...

[cottlet] 05/8/2009 11:20

Is it rolling up hill now?

[azalea] 20/7/2009 15:57

SP starting to get a move on and not before time. Brokers' tgt price circa 180p!