Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Petrolatina Energy LSE:PELE London Ordinary Share GB00B2QMZ536 ORD USD0.10
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 19.50p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0 05:00:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Oil & Gas Producers 12.9 -18.4 27.5 0.6 20.49

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luminoso: Ok, I'll give you the farm in, Rizzzla ! That is since the results. Where are the spuds at la Paloma and other activities promised ? What I don't understand is why their communication with investors, which was significantly improved a couple of years ago, has nearly evaporated completely. You begin to wonder if the board are happy to see the share price depressed.....
luminoso: James t Kirk As yours seems to be one of the few sensible post today on this board, thought it deserved an answer. You are right in one sense that it is old news. However, the rise is the share price recovering a small amount from the decline brought about by the long delay in ANH approval, which cast doubt in the market's mind that the Shell farm in and therefore payment to PELE would ever go ahead. HTH.
moneybags13: Once again, how much lower can this company's share price drop. If I were Shell,I would drop out of the agreement, add a couple of extra quid and buy the whole company. At current share price we are valued at £12.3 million, nonsense. Has anybody got any idea as to what our current BODs are doing????
ngms27: down_under are you paid to keep the PELE share price down? I agree this will likely drift back down in the absence of news on Colon and Q1 if it does I will take opportunity to top up under 45p This does have the smell of the GKP 50% stake sell at 10p days before the major discovery was announced JonnyT
dicko80: some snippets from EVO broker note.... 15 April 2010 Price/Target: 45.5p/70.0p Mkt Cap: £22m Petrolatina (PELE.L) Buy Shifting up through the gears The recently negotiated banking arrangement with Macquarie Bank allows Petrolatina to speed up exploitation of its principal Colon field in Colombia which operates under an attractive "E&P" contract. This should see production grow from the current level of 751 boepd to over 2,000 boepd by 2011, providing cashflow to re-invest in Petrolatina's highly prospective Putumayo-4 exploration block. Petrolatina has stable production from five fields in the Middle Magdalena region of Colombia and 100% ownership of the strategically located RZA pipeline. It is, though, the development of the Colon field discovered in 2009 and further exploration upside in the portfolio (Putumayo-4 licence), all held under the more valuable "E&P" contracts, which provide the real attraction. A two year development programme, principally focussed upon the Colon field, should see net production rise over 200% from 639 bopd in FY09 to nearer 2,000 boepd by FY11E. The ramp up in production will be financed by an initial $25m loan from Macquarie Bank which has been recently drawndown. Additionally, the facility provides $50m for Petrolatina to further develop its existing fields, make future acquisitions or participate in the country's upcoming 2010 licensing round which is offering up to 168 new blocks, 63 Technical Evaluation licences, and 74 smaller blocks near existing production. The CPR report released in February showed 2P reserves of 6.1 mmbbls, up 17% from the last report in December 2007. The NPV of these reserves, based on a 10% discount rate (NPV 10), is $140m (c£85m) or 101p/share on a fully diluted basis. The objective for Petrolatina during 2010 is to prove up and reclassify the 3P reserves number of 11.4 mmbbls as 2P reserves. Our core + risked EMV for Petrolatina, excluding the Putamayo-4 block, is 76p/share with a core value of 35p/share. Accordingly we initiate coverage of the stock with a Buy recommendation and a target price of 70p/share. Investment Summary The recent CPR report for Petrolatina was largely overlooked by the market as short-term financing concerns continued to overshadow the underlying value of the company's assets. However, the banking facility with Macquarie Bank signed in March now provides the company with the means to fully exploit its discovered assets. Accordingly, we anticipate share price appreciation as the key Colon field is developed and we initiate coverage of Petrolatina with a Buy recommendation and 70p target price. Our investment case is based upon: ► Increasing net production by over 200% to >2,000 boepd by 2011 ► Strengthened management team and pro-active major investor ► New production mainly under the new attractive commercial terms of ANH's "E&P" contracts ► Work programme focussed on reclassifying some of the 5.3 mmbls of possible reserves as 2P reserves ► 50% interest in the Putumayo-4 block in one of Colombia's most prospective areas. Progressing towards an exploration well in 2011 ► Well positioned to benefit from an oil and gas renaissance in Colombia due to improved security and FDI ► Trading at significant discount of 65% to Core + Risked EMV of 76p Petrolatina has a solid core of producing assets which provide stable cashflow for the company and in 2009 generated operating cash flow (pre movements in working capital) of $4.7m. However, the company has historically been held back from fully exploiting its asset base and exploration acreage due to a lack of funding. This is scheduled to change with the recent announcement of a new $75m banking facility with Macquarie Bank. Petrolatina intends to drill a further 5 wells on the Colon field this year and install artificial lift equipment to enhance production and recovery in the field that could, according to the latest CPR report, hold up to 6.6 million bbls of recoverable oil. Together with further infill drilling at the Santa Lucia and Los Angeles fields this should see net production rise from the 2009A figure of 639 bopd to nearer 1,500 boepd in 2010 and over 2,000 boepd in 2011. On the exploration front, the main area of activity is the company's 50% interest in the Putumayo-4 block which is being progressed towards a first exploration well sometime in 2011. The company has yet to release prospect sizes, however it is currently progressing seven leads which we believe range in size between 5-15 million bbls recoverable. In the latest CPR released in February the net 2P reserves were shown to have risen 21% from the 2007 report to 6.1 mmbbls. 1P and 3P reserves rose to 3.6 mmbbls and 11.4 mmbbls respectively. Additionally, the CPR calculated a NPV (10) for the 2P reserves of $140m (101p/share on a fully diluted basis). One of management's stated objectives for 2010 is to prove up some of the 11.4 mmbbls of 3P reserves and reclassify them as 2P reserves. On a broader level, Colombia's oil industry is undergoing somewhat of a renaissance following the transfer of licensing to the independent National Hydrocarbon Agency ("ANH") from Ecopetrol. This saw a new "E&P" contract introduced which promotes exploration and exploitation of smaller fields as the royalty rate is just 8% for the first 5 million bbls extracted. On a pre-development basis, Petrolatina calculates that theses E&P contracts have an NPV/bbl three times greater than the old Association contracts. Furthermore, with an improved security record in the country, ANH is currently touring the world ahead of the 2010 licensing round which will see it offer exploration rights to 168 blocks, 63 Technical Evaluation licences, and 74 smaller blocks near existing production We initiate coverage of Petrolatina with a Buy rating and target price of 70p underpinned by the recently released CPR report. Our core + risked EMV for Petrolatina, excluding the Putamayo-4 block, is 76p/share with a core value of 35p/share. Near term catalysts for the shares are a drilling update from the Santa Lucia-4 production well and drilling of the Colon-3 development well which should provide a greater degree of confidence in the recoverable reserves for the Colon field. ....................... Colon field (La Paloma Block; PELE 85%) The Colon field provides the major development project for 2010/11 and on which a majority of the Macquarie Bank debt facility will be spent. At present, two wells are producing under natural flow from the Upper Umir sands. This is a higher pressure reservoir than found at the Los Angeles and Santa Lucia fields, yielding a better quality oil of 22 API and has seen flow rates in excess of 1,000 bopd. The forward work programme is for a further 5 wells to be drilled this year and artificial lift equipment installed on the two current producers to support production levels. Additionally, up to a further seven wells may be drilled in 2011. The findings of the CPR (see later) were in line with management's expectations at the 3P level but undershot at the 2P level due to a lower allocation of reserves to the Colon field. Ryder Scott took a more conservative stance on the structural extent of the field given the small distance between the original Colon-1 well and the Colon-2 appraisal well situated just 450m from the initial discovery. The next well to be drilled, Colon-3, is located a meaningful distance away from the initial two wells and this should help delineate the structural extent of the field. As such, Petrolatina hopes to be able to reclassify some of the 3.0 mmbbls of possible reserves into 2P reserves. In addition to the 3P number, Petrolatina has highlighted 0.9 mmbbls of prospective resources on the field. ............................... Serafin gas field (Tisquirama B Block; PELE 40%) Petrolatina recently announced that it had commissioned work to connect the Serafin gas well to the main Colombian gas trunk line. The company has prepaid its share of costs, $1.36m, and is currently in negotiations with a number of potential customers with the expectation that commercial gas sales will commence in 4Q 2010. The Ryder Scott CPR highlighted gross 1P reserves of 3.13BCF (0.5 mmboe). Although the initial well tested at 14 mmscf/d in January 2007, production is expected at nearer 7 mmscf/d with a project payback of around 4 months. ................. Putumayo-4 Block (PELE 50%) Petrolatina has a 50% interest and is operator of the Putumayo-4 block in Southern Colombia. The block was awarded to Petrolatina in the 2008 "Minironda" with the formal contract signed with ANH in Feb 2009. To date over 1,300km of existing 2D seismic data has been reprocessed and seven leads identified on the licence. In the second half of 2010 Petrolatina will shoot 103km of new 2D seismic ahead of firming up the prospect(s) to drill in 2011. The exploration phase of the licence runs until September 2012 with the new 2D seismic and exploration well fulfilling the partners' commitments. Petrolatina's partner in the block is Canadian listed La Cortez Energy, a Colombian and Peruvian focussed E&P company. Under the terms of the farm-out, La Cortez will carry Petrolatina for 2/3rds of the costs associated with the initial 103km of 2D seismic. The funds required to finance phase 1 of exploration activity have been set aside by La Cortez with EcoPetrol meaning funding of this initial phase is not a concern. The Putumayo area is one of the most highly prospective areas of Colombia. A working hydrocarbon system has been proved, with largest discovery to date in the region containing up to 250 mmbbls and testing flow rates up to 2,000 bopd. The largest independent player in the region is Gran Tierra Energy, a Canadian listed E&P company with a market cap of $1.2bn. Gran Tierra's largest discovery to date is the Costayaco field which has 2P reserves of 23.3 mmbbls and which is producing 19,000 bopd. .......................... Rio Zulia-Ayacucho Pipeline (PELE 100%) Petrolatina has 100% ownership of the Rio Zulia-Ayacucho (RZA) pipeline, a 10 inch 25,000 bopd pipeline running through the Catatumbo basin on the Colombian/Venezuelan border. The pipeline connects the EcoPetrol operated Tibu and Rio Zulia fields to the pump station in the town of Ayacucho. At present the pipeline is carrying c. 3,500 bopd but has the capacity to handle over 6x that amount. We expect utilization levels to improve as EcoPetrol and Petrobras develop the two fields, with EcoPetrol believed to be spending up to $170m on workover programmes at the two fields. Additionally, the Catatumbo Basin is currently being actively explored by a number of companies with any oil discoveries in this region likely to use the RZA Pipeline. The pipeline is a good, constant source of cashflow for the company and requires little maintenance capex. In our valuation (see later) we believe the pipeline could be worth c$14m. However, we doubt that the stock market gives much value to this asset given its unconventional nature within an E&P's portfolio. If this persists, we would not be surprised if management sought to realise its value through a disposal and re-invest the cash into its upstream developments. ........................ Valuation We believe that Petrolatina's shares are materially undervalued despite the company now being adequately financed to begin extracting the value in the portfolio highlighted by the recent CPR. We initiate coverage of Petrolatina with a Buy recommendation and 70p target price, some 52% above the current share price. In our models we have used the reserve and resource estimates as of 30th November provided by the Ryder Scott CPR report. For the exploration upside in the portfolio we have based our models on the estimates provided by management which have subsequently been reviewed by Ryder Scott. At present we do not include any value for the Putumayo-4 block as the company has yet to publically disclose any prospect sizes or make any firm commitments to drilling. However, we note that the company is progressing seven leads and we believe these range in size from 5m-15m bbls recoverable. We believe the Guatemalan assets to be worth $1m based upon the 2007 transaction that saw Petrolatina sell an 80% stake in the assets to Quetzal Energy for $4m. However, as Petrolatina is not presently receiving its share of production revenue from these assets we exclude the assets from our valuation. In addition to the underlying production and exploration assets we also include in our valuation Petrolatina's ownership of the Rio Zulia – Ayacucho pipeline. Our valuation assumes that the throughput grows at a modest rate of 5% p.a from FY10E forecast of level of 4,050 bopd. The pipeline's capacity is 25,000 bopd and with Ecopetrol looking to further develop the Rio Zulia field there is scope for realised throughput to exceed our forecasts. Using a discounted cashflow basis we believe that the pipeline is worth $14m, which is more conservative valuation than the $30m ascribed to the pipeline by Gaffney Cline & Associates in 2006 as the ramp up in throughput has been slower than they forecast. .............................. So no value for Putaymo and obviously the 2new additional blocks from the licencing round, also the potential from the new untapped sandchannel and the company looking to confirm P3's to P2's this year .... looks good with our major/larger assets not priced in and substantially undervalued @ present from our existing plays... ;-)
lunartik: The forecast has been raised in the last week - 2010 eps goes from 7.05 to 7.45, 2011 from 7.33 to 7.75 giving a p/e of just over 4 for both years - not taking account of any further shares being issued. The power to issue shares will almost certainly be approved at the AGM, just as it was last year. The decline in the share price is perplexing. I don't hold at present - I was lucky enough to buy in a while ago when it was 20pish, didn't sell when it was 80p (was very pleased with myself) and eventually offloaded between 65p and 45p. Made a decent profit, but I was becoming very frustrated at the decline. I put it down to the share structure and the lack of good drilling news. The shares should be higher but they aren't. I wouldn't fear a new issue of shares so long as it wasn't to Tribeca or Macquarie. Whatever the price it would broaded the shareholder register and I think that is one of the fundamental problems with the shares - it is too narrow at present with two holders potentially owning around 70% of the issued shares - I did do a complete calculation and posted it here a few months ago. Infact the lower the issue price of the shares, the more shares they would have to issue to raise a certain amount, and that would be better for the shareholder register. It would do wonders I feel for the shre price! I would draw an analogy with BP. - cancelling the dividend for the rest of the year pushes upthe shares by 10% - perverse - what seems to be bad news is really good news. But Pele does have a bank facility of $75M from Macquarie so I wouldn't anticipate massive issues of shares at present unless it was to fund a large acquisition. And only in March Macquarie agreed to convert its warrants into shares at 75.7p at any time within 5 years - the RNS of March 2010 states - "Under the terms of the Senior Facility, on drawdown yesterday of Tranche A, MBL has been issued with warrants to subscribe for 8 million Ordinary Shares at any time within the next five years. The exercise price per warrant has been fixed at 75.7 pence per Ordinary Share" Under the earlier 2008/9 finance agreement with Tribeca they can convert their shares between 20p and 25p, but they also have an agreement to subscribe for shares at a much higher price - I can't find the figure now but it is something like 65p. So I can't see them being happy with an issue of large numbers of shares at 30pish. And they effectively control the company. So to summarize, Pele appears dirt cheap, I don't think masses of cheap shares will be issued simply to raise cash, and "expert" investors have agreed to buy shares at more than double the present price. But an issue of shares would broaden the shareholder register and I think that is probably what is needed (in addition to drilling success) to change the direction of the share price. All IMHO, DYOR etc
lunartik: I think that the news in the RNS today re converting debt into shares is neutral so far as the market is concerned, but at the same time it does not solve a problem that PELE currently has - indeed it may exacerbate it. I'm no financial guru however as I understood matters under the "old" scheme when the debt came to be repaid if Pele were to offer Tribeca cash Tribeca could insist in repayment being in shares at 20p and 25p. Under the "new" scheme Pele has the option to offer shares or cash, but presumably if it were to be cash then Tribeca could still insist on shares. The problem with the shares is that Tribeca currently have 38%, but if they took all the debt in shares, or Pele were to pay them that way, then Tribeca would own around 60% of the enlarged share capital - I did work the exact figures out some time ago and posted them here, but I seem to have mislaid them for now and can't be bothered wortking them out again. As I see it the potential for Tribeca owning 60% of the shares is a problem for Pele and the markets and is one reason why I suspect that the share price is not much higher than it is at present. Not only can Tribeca effectively control the company, as most of the Directors are associated with them, but they can also automatically win any Ordinary Resolutions at AGM's and EGM's, and they are almost there on getting any Special Resolutions passed also. In addition it would rule out any takeover attempt not approved by Tribeca (or alternatively make it likely that any deal approved of by Tribeca would go through irrespective of what other shareholders thought), and any smaller shareholders are effectivly excluded from decision making. Matters could of course change if Pele were to offer shares for financing to a third party (not sure whether the agreement with Tribeca allows for this) - so much better to offer shares at 60p, and broaden the shareholder register than Tribeca swapping debt for more shares at 20p and 25p. Whilst Tribeca always had the option of getting the debt swapped for shares at 20p and 25p - and why wouldn't they unless they were desperate for cash (and if so why not get the shares at 20p and sell them for 60p in the market) this deal makes it more likely that Tribeca will own 60% of Pele. I will admit that we should be grateful that they gave us cash in 2008 when Pele was a busted flush - but I don't see todays news as being good, at best it is neutral. Of course things may change if more new shares were isssued to 3rd parties and funding raised that way, thus reducing Tribecas potential 60%, but if funding is raised only by debt then Tribecas potential 60% will remain intact. And why issue shares to third parties if that were to thwart Tribeca controlling Pele -unless the value of the reduced shareholding were enhanced by Tribeca not having control. However as an aside wasn't there a resolution at a recent AGM to giving directors power to issue something like 100M new shares? Can't remember now and that authority may have expired - but for me I would prefer Tribeca to be paid in cash (although that is not entirely within Pele's power), and new shares issued at 60p to third parties so as to broaden the shareholder base. Still holding here and awaiting news - but I feel that the share price would be considerably higher if Tribeca did not have such a large potential (and actual) stake in the company.
lunartik: tgg, re the conversion of shares, I agree it could be in the region of 30M shares - if interest and all that are included. However I thought that the price of the second lot was dependent, not only on the exchange rate etc, but also the value of PELE shares around the time of conversion - making it almost impossible to come up with any worthwhile figure at the present time. 30M is a possibility - but it could be less - and if PELE is successful drilling and/or raising finance on better terms through shares or borrowing - then the figure could be much less. Depending upon fundraising/income etc the figure could be anywhere between slightly more then 0 and 30M! (IMHO, of course) Bearing in mind that there are presently around 45M in issue (of which TOGF presently holds 17M or 37%) this must be of some concern to investors. If the full 30M were issued then TOGF would hold around 47M of what would be then 75M in issue or around 63% of the total shareholding - all very rough figures. PELE of course following the AGM have the power to issue upto another 60M shares - for a total of 105M in issue. This TOGF situation, I think, weighs quite heavily on the present share price (aside from Crosby selling etc) and which is why I believe that PELE is leveraged on the prospects of drilling success. If drilling and production is successful, and oil prices stay high, then it makes it more likely that TOGF will be repaid in cash, either via income or fundraising on better terms. Thus the need for the issue of dilutative shares is reduced, and the present share price improves, thus in turn reducing the need to issue further shares. It is a virtuous circle - but a lack of drilling success would have the opposite effect, leading to a lower share price and the need to issue more shares, thus depressing the price further and becoming a vicious circle. I'm not criticising management for raising funds in this manner - they probably had few offers on the table, and the alternative would have been no drilling, as opposed to the exciting programme we have presently ongoing. On the matter of Churia-1 and the mid to end August announcement, the preliminary results for Colon-1 were 10 days or so "late" from the initial expected date given by management - so I'm not unduly concerned by a "delay" of even a week or more - and Colon-1 was a big succcess! As for Crosby I've looked through a few previous RNS's and they look something like this 3-3-09 increase to 3.99% 12-3-09 increase to 4.33% 21-4-09 increase to 5.19% 28-8-09 decrease to below 3% Around March/April Peles shareprice was around 20-25p, its now early 40's, so Crosby have probably nearly doubled their investment over six months or so. So they may simply be taking profits. If this was one of the factors weighing on the price then we should move upwards next week. Also Directors were buying earlier in the year - at around 17p - so the recent Director purchase at the end of July should mean that all is going according to plan - although I would admit that director buying is not always a reliable indicator. And JonnyT, I guess that following on from my leveraged point, and in the present market mood, in which everyone wants to spot the next GKP (not that I want to suggest for a moment that Pele is in reality anything like GKP with its X billion whatever) then I guess a big success on Churia-1 could see Pele do a 50% gain over a short period of time, but over a period of 12-18 months I expect Pele to do really very well indeed, assuming we don't hit too many dusters. Sorry to drone on a bit, just a few thoughts on this Bank Holiday weekend.
lunartik: Well, its sparked a little bit of activity (but only a little bit). I've been puzzling over the PELE share price for a while now, and searching for reasons why it is not much, much higher and why so little activity recently. I've come to the conclusion that it is possibly the Tribeca warrants and shares which are presently weighing on the share price. PELE currently has 45M shares in issue. Tribeca currently has 17M shares or 37%. It has warrants which can currently be converted into another 1.8M shares and $11M convertible loan notes due in January 2011. $4.875M of the warrants are to be converted at 20p which will give them another 15M or so shares (on my shaky mathematics, that is) - that would give them 33M shares or about 54% of the enlarged share capital of the company. Then they have a further $6M warrants which are to be converted or repaid before January 2011 at a price to be determined at the date of conversion. So Tribeca could end up owning well over 50% maybe over 60% of the company, if PELE can't repay the debt and has to convert the debt into shares in January 2011. This is why the results of Churia-1 and Colon-2, and subsequent wells will be so important. Production and a "highish" oil price will not only give PELE an income and enable it to continue drilling without raising further finance and possibly pay dividends, but it will also enable the loan notes to be repaid without the need to issue further shares to Tribeca. Good results from the drilling will possibly have a disproportionate effect on the shareprice and will clear the way for PELE to achieve its goals. The only real indicator we have is the recent director buying - not always a reliable indicator - but better than nothing! And as I type, we've ticked up again, so that 250K does seems to have stirred things up a little. All IMHO, DYOR etc.,
ghhghh: Interesting update today. Remember they are drilling a possible multi bagger. On 7th Jan PELE announced: 'We remain excited by the potential of the Colón-1 prospect which we believe has possible recoverable reserves of up to 19.8 million barrels of oil. We hope to be able to announce initial production testing results in the coming weeks following completion of the side-track process.' Today they say: The Company's first exploratory well on the La Paloma block is now close to reaching its target depth of approximately 9,200ft in order to test the La Paz, Lisama and Umir formations. As previously announced, oil and gas shows were encountered in this well but the initial wellbore was lost due to unexpected high pressures encountered in the Cretaceous Umir formation. No wireline logging or testing was possible, and a sidetrack well has been drilled in order to fully evaluate the section. The Directors are pleased with the progress of this sidetrack and the well has again penetrated the Umir formation which remains the primary reservoir objective. The well is expected to reach the target depth in the next few days, following which wireline logs will be obtained and, if warranted, production flow testing will be undertaken. The Directors expect to be able to release preliminary results from the well on or around 10 February 2009 Today's RNS more circumspect and, if warranted, production flow testing will be undertaken rather than We hope to be able to announce initial production testing results. But perhaps the reason is that also announced a $4.875m convertible loan note with their largest shareholder, Tribeca. Effectively Tribeca operate and control PELE so will know excact current position. And the terms not too bad - 2yrs at 12% interest, convertible at circa 21p. PELE have an option to extend by a further $5m (but Tribeca can decline) - again 2 yrs at 12% but conversion price will be PELE share price over preceeding 10 days plus 25%. Looks good deal for shareholders and implies Tribeca like what they see at Colon. And if Colon is a major discovery, not too dilutive. This is doubly good news for shareholders because Tribeca (their President, Luc Gerard is Exec Chair of PELE) had opportunity to screw shareholders and haven't done so.
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