Petro Matad Share Discussion Threads

[cashandcard] 19/9/2018 12:26

Just saw this on lse;

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macd_91 9:33am

Mud logging isn't difinitive by any means, you can have oil staining on reservoir rocks from oil that was in situe but subsequently through seal breach or other mechanisms (further cooking to gas) has left the reservoir trap. Mud logging along with MWD tools and gas data help identify the reservoir but they by no means evaluate it. That is done later by the wireline runs after the drilling has finished in the open hole.

(incase you're wondering, im a geologist)

I really hope MATD do come up trumps and have a good well come in, especially with the amount of work they have done through seismic and basin models and analysis.

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Cash

[spangle93] 19/9/2018 12:17

As I wrote earlier, even logs are by no means definitive, they are indicative.

There's also no definition in LSE documentation about what a qualifications a "competent person" is meant to have, but that's just a quirky sidebar.

Any company listed on ASX has a duty to report every 2 weeks, so any joint listed company certainly gives updates.

PANR has advised the market when it saw elevated gas levels in a formation above the target reservoir.

OK, I'm chucking in examples cos you challenged us to - but generally Pro I'm with you: unless there's strong evidence to the contrary (and news leaks can be managed) it's better to wait until after wireline logs.

[cashandcard] 19/9/2018 12:14

Companies that report on the way down tend to have a 'maximise the newsflow' strategy.


Cash

[bmcb5] 19/9/2018 12:12

@Pro - and i'm very pleased of it. The fewer comparisons we have to UKOG or any Laughingas company, the better imo :-)

I'm sure we could continue to debate this for hours, but it doesn't add any value. I look for evidence to support or challenge my theories. So far i have seen nothing to support the theory that oil will come from SL, so i am leaning toward scepticism. Realistic expectations are crucial to minimise nasty shocks, in my experience

[cashandcard] 19/9/2018 12:12

neo26,


They will get Wildhorse drilled - still 2month window to get that well completed.


Cash

[pro_s2009] 19/9/2018 12:10

neo26.

Sinpoec state 25 days for Wild Horse.

SL-1 finishes say 25th Sept.

Rig move and spud at WH say 10th October.

Well complete by 4th November.

Drilling season ends at the end of November and restarts late March 2019.

Still possible. If SL-1 is not complete by say 7th October then things are getting tight.

[cashandcard] 19/9/2018 12:08

Folks,


The issue is they need to be accurate as to what they find on the way down then report on. This company previously had 'oil shows' which was not representative even though it caused an almighty spike. Remember, they are drilling in a frontier basin, so no other available analogues - they have to be accurate.

Some years ago, one of the Falklands companies had 'oil shows' - it later became water. AOI/RMP did the same in Puntland Somalia. A company can also get oil shows and then deem the shows to be of little if no commercial significance at all.

You can get oil shows, but they can be inconclusive & actually deceptive. Which is why a full suite of logs is needed. I remain with funds ready in case of a success, which is the least likely outcome.


Cash

[pro_s2009] 19/9/2018 12:06

bmcb5, it was back in 2015.

They basically updated on all stages and said they would update as appropriate. So they drilled 80 meters and set casing, they cooked fish and chips and had coffee........RNS update for that.

EG

18th Sept 2015 UK Oil & Gas PLC (AIM: UKOG) today confirms that drilling operations on the Horse Hill-1 well are continuing as planned with the 20-inch surface casing having been set successfully at 84 feet below ground level. Operations are continuing at the site and further news will be issued as appropriate.

24th Sept 2015 UK Oil & Gas PLC (AIM: UKOG) today confirms that drilling operations on the Horse Hill-1 well are continuing successfully and the Marriott 50 rig is now drilling ahead at a depth of 116 feet measured depth ("MD") today at 12:00 hours. Current rate of drill penetration is about 30 feet an hour.

And so on..........


However, if you read the Spud RNS from MATD, they said they would update when drilling operations are completed..........which means drill has reached TD and well has been logged. They are not giving a Lenigas running commentary of what we did today......... LOL

[neo26] 19/9/2018 12:03

ProI always thought wild horse had better chance than Snow leopard, mid nov winter kicks in, there will be no chance to drill wild horse this year.Mobilisation will take at least 2/3 weeks. So there will be no time.

[bmcb5] 19/9/2018 11:56

@Pro - I haven't got time for that. I don't feel a need to prove it. It's just my opinion. You are welcome to disagree. My view is that if there was oil, we would have heard by now. I'd be happy to be wrong.

[pro_s2009] 19/9/2018 11:55

neo26.

Yes, if the company ADVISES BEFORE SPUD they will update the market at regular intervals, then they will. They may decide to do several logging runs. AAOG have stated clearly before spud they will update regularly and are likely planning to do multiple logging runs.

However, most companies (MATD included) advise on spud that the well will be drilled to TD and then logging done. This is the most common practice to do a full Wireline logging run at TD - its more cost effective and takes less time than doing runs at regular intervals.

The norm is drill to TD and then Wireline logging of the complete well - there will be no mention of anything until logging has been done and the Competent Person has reviewed all the data to come to the conclusions announced in an RNS to market.

[neo26] 19/9/2018 11:52

CashThanks for reply, i recall Buck at the oil presenation state that matd saw oil shows in the wells and continued drilling more wells, when they tested it was too late.Obviously buck wasnt there then but this is what he said about past failures.

[pro_s2009] 19/9/2018 11:50

Don't see anything in Q1 2016 for UKOG - only flow testing.

Send me the link to this RNS announcement to market of oil shows, still drilling, no logging done yet.

[neo26] 19/9/2018 11:49

ProIt does happen, over a year ago sdx were drilling multi horizon well, 21 days in they reported gas find and continued drilling further down for oil. So it does happen.Aaog are drilling tlp103 where it is drilling multi horizon well, they have said they will update mkt as they go past each of those targeted horizons.So come on..

[bmcb5] 19/9/2018 11:43

Straight off the top of my head, UKOG - Horsehill Q1 2016

[pro_s2009] 19/9/2018 11:42

bmcb5, you can only inform the market after you have done wireline logging and the logging data has been signed off with the conclusions by the Competent Person.

Can you therefore name companies and send me links to their RNS announcements where they state oil shows and still drilling and no logging has been done ?

[pro_s2009] 19/9/2018 11:40

neo26, can you give me an example of another company who have, in an official RNS, updated the market on oil shows while still drilling ?

Please send me some links to the RNS or the company names so I can find the RNS.

[bmcb5] 19/9/2018 11:37

Every tiddly oil explorer is keen to shout, early and loudly, about successes in drilling. If they had hit oil, i think we would have heard by now.

I hold some of these (though only 3% of my portfolio) so obviously want success. But I see nothing to suggest that is the case.

[neo26] 19/9/2018 11:33

So why do other company inform mkt when multi horizon targets are involved?

[neo26] 19/9/2018 11:31

Will WH be drilled this year as we are close to winter season again?Mobilisation will take some time.

[pro_s2009] 19/9/2018 11:30

neo26, they cannot inform the market of anything until wireline logging has been done.

Wireline logging will only be done at the end of drilling when they get to Target Depth, as stated by the company.

So it does not matter how much oil shows there are on the way down in the drilling mud cuttings..........there will be no update until wireline logging is completed at the end of the drill once they get to target depth.

[neo26] 19/9/2018 11:17

Even if they found oil shows they have to inform mkts, nothing has been mentioned.Almost approaching 70 days drill should be finished.

[pro_s2009] 19/9/2018 10:56

Malcy said in his audio on the 10th September that he expected results anytime in the next 2 to 3 weeks - so prior to end September. Everyone wants the news now, but might have to wait for drilling to finish yet.

The audio is from 22 minutes and 55 seconds in, near the end. Link below.




Was potentially strange for Malcy to say 2 to 3 weeks more from the 10th of September.........maybe he got an idea/guess that things are a little behind the original 70 day timeline. Who knows...not me.