Petro Matad Share Discussion Threads

[ducatiman] 18/9/2018 13:16

ss, my thoughts, spike to 30/40, settle 20/25.

[ssnichani] 18/9/2018 13:13

Anyone calculated what are we hoping for share price wise if we were strike on the first well all things considered?

[pro_s2009] 18/9/2018 13:10

Seriously low volume today, will it even get to 1 million shares traded by close ?

[novice2006] 18/9/2018 13:03

Pro, yes good point, hopefully little down side on a duster at these prices since the price rally hasn't started yet. Should we strike the black stuff then who knows...

[pro_s2009] 18/9/2018 12:50

novice2006.......looks identical to Sea Lion for RKH at the moment.......volume is drying up.....hardly any buys or sells and weak share price.......thats the sign that NOBODY knows whats going on.......

No pump and dump. No dump on bad news coming......its all up in the air and nobody knows. That kind of suggests they have encouraging signs and logging needs to be done to confirm or deny those encouraging signs.

70 days was to drill and log the well.

Its day 71.......so maybe they are doing the logging runs now, maybe there is a few days delays to drilling.

Getting exciting now.

[novice2006] 18/9/2018 12:07

With news imminent, I expected us to be on an upward trend this week. I guess we are just not on people's radar yet.

[trulyscrumptious] 18/9/2018 09:38

'If we get some encouragement in one of the early well(s), rather than go over there and do that thing we first planned, maybe we could appraise some success or follow up on some encouragement, then we have that flexibility...'

I take it, 'that thing we first planned', means delaying XX, or even Wild Horse'.
As XX has been postponed, 1+1 could = 2, (i.e. there has been some success or encouragement already).
Has the market not twigged this? Or do I have my maths wrong?

A rig move involves 150 truck loads!

[trulyscrumptious] 18/9/2018 09:23

It's working for me now as well!

[spangle93] 18/9/2018 09:13

"until you do logging you do not know if you have oil or water down there"

But the corollary isn't true. Logs are just interpretations of responses of the earth, either natural or as a result of stimuli. Even if you do logging, it's not unambiguous (as Block XX so clearly demonstrated last time around, and so many other operators - MTA in Hungary, XTR in Turkey etc), although I'm sure it would move the share price ;-)

A well test is the true arbiter, and allows reserves bookings, but I don't believe one is planned until next year.

[pro_s2009] 18/9/2018 09:09

Yep, working fine for me too, checked the header and the You Tube link.

Must be an issue with the device you are on now TS (or the ISP you are using)........try on another mobile or computer, or a different internet connection.

[ducatiman] 18/9/2018 09:09

Ok here too

[novice2006] 18/9/2018 09:07

The youtube link in the header and just reposted are both working for me.

[trulyscrumptious] 18/9/2018 08:58

There is a problem with that video, even the YT link comes up with an error message.

[pro_s2009] 18/9/2018 08:46

TS..........does feel as though something is happening.

Like RKH and Sea Lion.........volume went down to a trickle and the price was wobbling around downwards for days into Sea Lion Oil Discovery RNS.

Normally in these situations if nothing has been found then the big volume selling piles in as there is no need for logging to confirm you have nothing.

As per Sea Lion, the big volume buying will not start until the Logging has been done, as until you do logging you do not know if you have oil or water down there. Sea Lion heavy buying started in the morning and then the RNS come out just after midday with the oil discovery news.

So in the present situation with very little selling, the price wobbling around one could, perhaps wrongly, assume that there is something and it needs logging to be done to firm it up........at which point then the buying (or selling) starts - depending if oil has been found, or not.

[captain james t kirk] 18/9/2018 08:30

cash
:)

[pro_s2009] 18/9/2018 08:26

TS

Direct link on You Tube is :




.

[trulyscrumptious] 18/9/2018 08:11

Thanks grannyboy although it doesn't seem to work at the moment.

[pauliewonder] 18/9/2018 08:11

And another day with no update on open. I think at worst it's not an out and out duster and they have at least encountered something. The alternative would be technical issues although I would have expected an update if that was the case. If it was a straight forward no hydrocarbons then we would have heard by now in my view

[ducatiman] 18/9/2018 08:08

Interesting open!

[grannyboy] 18/9/2018 08:07

Link to lse..just below the charts, above...Yes I had the same trouble finding it to, ie 'couldn't see the wood for the trees...:)

[trulyscrumptious] 18/9/2018 08:02

I think we have a gusher here and most people think it's a dud!!! I could be wrong of course, big gamble, but I have a familiar feeling that reminds me of Sea Lion eight years ago.
Is there a link to the LSE interview, by the way?

[pro_s2009] 18/9/2018 04:04

Block XX needs a minimum spend of 20m US$ to qualify and remain viable.

For me Block XX was (and still is) the back up plan..........if Blocks IV and V have no oil (if SL-1 and Fox-1 and WH-1 all fail), then Block XX is the only hope to generate some value for MATD. And one successful small drill on XX is worth more than 8p a share. So a few successful wells on Block XX will see a very significant return and a very much higher share price than 8p.

The big game is of course Blocks IV and V.

The rejig of drilling now means :

Current drilling rig drills SL-1 and then goes to WH-1 and drills that and then is left in storage there and then drills Fox-1 in late March 2019. All 3 drills back to back with a winter in between.

As we stand now, the Block XX 3 wells will not be tendered for drilling until well into Q1 2019........ and by that time SL-1 and WH-1 will have been drilled and whatever they find will be known.

What I believe they will do, and what I would do if I was MB would be to push Block XX into Q3 2019 with a rig tender being called in late Q2.

Then drill SL-1 and WH-1 this year and Fox-1 early in Q2 2019.

In the event they all fail, proceed with Block XX rig tender. Thats the best way

Any success and then forget Block XX and proceed with appraisal drills on Blocks V and IV whilst at the same time agreeing the farm in deal with a Super Major for the discoveries and potential exploration.

Keep banging on...........but if Blocks IV and V have oil then there is potential recoverable resources there of over 20 Billion Barrels.

To put that into context.......

The whole of the UK (every license) has the potential for 20 Billion Barrels of as yet undiscovered recoverable oil left.

MATD license Blocks IV and V has the same potential 20 Billion Barrels of as yet undiscovered recoverable oil.


That is the simple fact why Shell and other Super Majors have been in discussion with MATD already. The potential there is mind blowing, if that potential can be proven to be real. The only way to prove it, or not, is to drill SL-1 and Fox-1 in Block V and WH-1 in Block IV.

I like the odds simply that you have massive explosive upside from Blocks IV and V, the likes of which have not been seen on any junior oil stock on AIM (even BPC could only muster 2 Billion recoverable barrels potential, this is 10 times bigger and Shell and other Super Majors have actually already been in discussion with MATD about potential farm in on any oil strike in IV and C) but you have the back up plan that if all that explosive upside does not happen, you have 3 fully funded appraisal wells to drill in Block XX which is worth multiples of the current share price. That minimizes the risk (not the share price swings in between) but the overall risk that any money invested today should give handsome returns by late Q3 2019 at the worst - whilst exposing yourself in the coming months to very significant upside on any Block IV and V success.

The odds are always against, the chance of failure on Blocks IV and V is much higher than the chance of success......but I am happy to hold and wait for any success, if it should happen. And if not, then on to the next well and if the 3 big ones fail then its the small Block XX ones as the back up plan.

[unlikely2] 18/9/2018 03:32

Ghost walker - precisely (That is why they are called satellite phones!). When you take land lines and mobiles out of the picture that, or MF/HF radio is what you are left with. Not every rig worker is wandering round with a sat phone.

[pro_s2009] 18/9/2018 03:04

cash, exactly.

The Block XX delays I was expecting if they strike at SL-1, which has made me hopeful (yes only hope as opposed to any confidence) that SL-1 has something positive.

[cashandcard] 18/9/2018 01:06

#701 #705 #707Just been going through old articles and interviews again. What made me sit up was the LSE interview a couple of months ago. Just listened to it 3 times, it was only on the third time the significance of the XX delays/postponement stood out like a sore thumb. Listen in from 5:00mins.Not sure about outcome, but it has certainly changed my outlook here. Will be watching carefully.Cash