Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Paragon Ent. LSE:PEL London Ordinary Share KYG6906M1069 ORD 0.1P (DI)
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  -0.025p -0.58% 4.275p 4.15p 4.40p 4.30p 4.275p 4.30p 231,818.00 12:54:53
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Equity Investment Instruments 8.5 0.3 0.3 13.4 8.02

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20/1/201719:19Paragon Entertainment1,747.00
22/4/201609:42SOME MORE BUYERS85.00

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Paragon Ent. Daily Update: Paragon Ent. is listed in the Equity Investment Instruments sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker PEL. The last closing price for Paragon Ent. was 4.30p.
Paragon Ent. has a 4 week average price of 4.24p and a 12 week average price of 3.65p.
The 1 year high share price is 4.80p while the 1 year low share price is currently 1.10p.
There are currently 187,680,550 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 208,907 shares. The market capitalisation of Paragon Ent. is £8,023,343.51.
serratia: New reader here. I came to this company to have a look after seeing the Merlin appointment. This is a good board, I've only had to filter two avatars ! I've read all the posts and started my analysis/valuation. I focus on cash generation in share price valuations as there is far less opportunity to project the figures in a favourable light. When I ran my spread sheet on the half year figures it gave me a valuation of 4.2p/share. I must say it's not always that accurate but it gives me a reason to look deeper. The tricky part is the forward forecast. I've seen the sales projection but there's one point I don't have a feel for and someone closer to the company might have a view. At the half year the op ex was £1333k or 24.1% of sales. So for H2 should I just double H1 or maintain the percentage sales figure which will of course increase the op ex due to the increasing sales? It makes quite a difference to my forward forecast.
csmwssk12hu: Looking at eps last year it was .32p on apx revenue of 7.7m. Ebitda profit of .25m this year they are already expecting min 13.2m Rev 1m ebitda that would make apx eps of 1.28p with a 4.2p share price dyor imho
pj 1: I have been invested here for just under 4 years so I would like to think that I have more reason than most to want this share price to rise. Despite recent posts there is clear near term resistance at 2.8p (where we are now) and also 3p.(a key level imo) There is also resistance (i.e. previous selling) at circa 4.5p and IMO 6p will come into play. It is best to judge PEL on fundamentals and forecasts not just posters claiming blue sky territory. There is no way in a million years, imo, based on fundamentals and current shares in issue that this is going to 12p short term. If it does, however, I will be ''absolutely delighted'' As always DYOR and never believe a word posted on a BB, including mine. Maybe csmwssk12hu and QS99 would like to prove me wrong and present a researched counter claim?
pj 1: I'm sure Sharesmag will in due course, although it doesnt appear to be a publication which moves share prices short term such as SCSW or IC. Copy of last June's full page article for those who may not have seen it ================================================================================= Paragon’s Middle East dream Museum designer swings to profit as turnaround gathers pace 23 June 2016|Small Caps Issue: 23 Jun 2016 - Page 35 The share price slump at visitor attraction designer Paragon Entertainment (PEL:AIM) could start to reverse this year as the £2.6 million cap takes advantage of the growing Middle Eastern market. The stock has suffered a torrid 12 months, falling 20% to 1.4p after it reported widening losses and a breach of its banking covenant in June 2015, followed by a profit warning in October on the back of unexpected project delays. PARAGON ENTERTAINMENT - Comparison Line Chart (Rebased to first) Full year results (14 June 2016) show Paragon managed to grow revenue by 10% to £8.5 million and swing to a pre-tax profit of £346,000 in 2015. This is despite losing £600,000 at the EBITDA (earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation) level from a contentious contract, which has now been resolved. The group, whose work includes the Wallace and Gromit Ride at Blackpool Pleasure Beach, has sold its loss-making mall attraction in Birmingham and renewed its banking facilities after trading in compliance with its covenants. Paragon earned £1.1 million in revenue from repeat business in 2015, but expects this to rise to £9 million in 2016. It says that around 82% of its turnover this year will be repeat business, suggesting full year revenue will be around £11 million – a year-on-year increase of 29.4%. The proportion of revenue that Paragon gets from the Middle East is expected to grow from 35% to 70% this year. This will help the group weather subdued trading in the UK. Current projects in the Middle East include activities associated with the Kung Fu Panda, Madagascar, Little Explorers and Magic Planet brands. (Click on chart to enlarge) Small caps pie Paragon says there is growth potential in retail, theme parks and science centres worldwide. ‘We have worked hard over the last 18 months developing these markets and our shift in geographical and market spread reflects the effort we have invested as well as the more global nature of our business,’ says chief executive Mark Pyrah. Paragon recently signed an agreement with H2E in Latvia to grow and explore the Eastern European markets and with Lefunland in China to expand its presence in the Far East. ‘Paragon Entertainment is playing to its design and build strengths in international markets in a sector it believes is worth £1-2 billion annually, so clearly capable of providing room for growth from current levels,’ says FinnCap analyst Duncan Hall. At 1.4p Paragon offers turnaround potential. SWOT ANALYSIS STRENGTHS • Five-year agreement with Hamleys • Geographically diverse • High proportion of repeat business WEAKNESSES • UK margin squeezed • Carries £200,000 of net debt • Turbulent history OPPORTUNITIES • Strong Middle East market • Grow repeat business • Capitalise on Hamleys agreement THREATS • Contract delays • Economic downturn • Further lending issues
pj 1: Q&A response to the Director remuneration AGM comments. It also looks as if they are generally within the Remuneration guidelines issued from Sharesoc A round up of several questions concerning remuneration 30 August 2016 Q1. “Please explain the changes in salaries for executive directors (Mark Pyrah, Pete Holdsworth and Mark Taylor) from 2011 to the present?” A. When the company was listed in 2011, executive directors undertook to earn discounted salaries until certain targets relating to the roll-out of attractions were reached. The 3 executive directors earned, in aggregate, £231k per annum until 2014 when the attractions strategy was abandoned. At this time, the remuneration committee decided to grant a 10% increase and further created a further cash bonus scheme. This increase took the aggregate salaries to £255k per annum and there have been no increases in these annual salaries since then. In retrospect, the Board did not communicate the 2014 increase in salaries to shareholders adequately. By way of background, in November and December 2014, the executive directors waived £42k of salaries to support the business at the time of the profit warning and breach of bank convenant. This waiver was effectively repaid in 2016 when the remuneration committee chairman awarded a discretionary bonus of £42k to the executive directors. There is a typo in the Directors’ Emoluments note in the Report of the Remuneration Committee in the Annual Report 2015 showing that the bonuses were paid in 2015 when this should have read that the bonuses were actually paid in “2016”. Nevertheless, the income statement for 2015 reflects the salaries correctly and the bonuses will only be reflected in the income statement of 2016, so the annual report is correct in all respects, except for the typo in the note. Q2. “Please explain the changes to the Management Participation Scheme for executive directors (Mark Pyrah, Pete Holdsworth and Mark Taylor) which were announced on 22 June 2016?” A. The Management Participation Scheme was created in 2011 and is structured through a subsidiary company, Paragon Entertainment Investments Limited. In summary, it provides for executive directors to participate in 10% of gain in PEL’s shares above 4p per share (ie the share price at which the shares were admitted in 2011), provided that the growth rate in share price is over 12.5%: At 12.5%, the share price needs to be 7.2p by December 2016 when the initial 5 year term expires. The scheme is therefore underwater and is neither an incentive nor a retention tool. The new amendments comprise the following: The base share price target (ie the strike price) of 4p is unchanged. The scheme is extended by 5 years to December 2021. The hurdle rate is reduced from 12.5% to 5% from inception. The company must have achieved a minimum rolling 12 month EBITDA of £800k at the time of exercising the option. The amendments therefore require that the share price target must be 6.5p by the end of 2021 for the executive directors to be permitted to exercise their options. By comparison, at 12.5%, the target share price would have to have been 13p. Note that, at the time of announcing the amendments to the Scheme, the share price was 1.40p. The management EMI scheme for non-directors will be amended to achieve substantially similar economics so that the entire management team is aligned with shareholders. Q3. “What governance process did you follow for these remuneration changes?” A. In case of both the salary increase and the management participation scheme, before seeking the changes, we, as executive directors, asked ourselves if we felt that we were being fair to the company and its stakeholders. Being satisfied with this, we consulted extensively with both our NOMAD and Paragon’s biggest institutional shareholder, and we sought their advice and approval before proceeding. We did some benchmarking against other AIM companies and at the current levels of remuneration, remuneration is fair and in line with other AIM companies. Finally, based on this information, the independent non-executive director of PEL made the final decisions and the executive directors abstained from voting. In respect of the management participation scheme, we also sought an independent option valuation from a firm of professional advisors which confirmed that the benefit conferred on the executive directors was minimal. The directors will pay tax on this benefit. The consequence of the various changes is that the executive directors are each paid a modest but reasonable salary, they have the benefit of a discretionary bonus based on performance, and they are well incentivised to grow the share price through the management participation scheme. We hope that by now we have built up a body of useful Q&A responses to help you think about our business. If we haven’t covered everything that interests you, please continue to engage us by emailing your questions to us at [email protected]. - See more at:
cautoussid: HI Aphapig , only seen your post today ,looks like more sellers clearing shares after Fridays rise ,planning to build up some more shares myself hopefully before pel share price moves back up to much ,like using this board now ,hope you have a successful year investing , has been a difficult start to this year for investors ,atb
pj 1: My AGM summary below. The most relevant towards the end as its not in any priority order. Unfortunately, I do not have the full time need to write it up more fully.As always IMO and DYOR apply. Feedback/ questions welcome. PJ Paragon Entertainment (PEL) AGM 11 December 2015 12:30 Venue- Head Office Attendees Mark Taylor Executive Chairman (MT) Mark Pyrah CEO (MP) Peter Holdsworth Production Director (PH) Martin Barratt NED (MB) Jarrod Marsden Financial Controller (JM) X2 Private Investors, including myself and X2 PI’s via telephone connection. No recording of the AGM was made and this is a representation of my notes and understanding of comments made including interpretations by myself. I am not, nor have I ever been, qualified to give financial advice and nothing in this article should be taken as such. All comments should be taken as in my opinion only (IMO) and as always it is imperative and vital to undertake and do your own research (DYOR). As per the 2014 AGM a presentation was given and questions allowed during the presentation. This resulted in some digression but relevant to the meeting therefore this article does not follow the exact route of the meeting, nor is it in any order of priority. At the time of writing (15th December 2015) I hold a long position in PEL. NOTE- A 7:00AM RNS was issued on the morning of the AGM. • Previous market guidance for 2015 EBITDA unchanged at £0.2m, though 2015 turnover likely to be approximately £8.5m and; (from £9m turnover) • Board guidance for 2016: Turnover of £11m and EBITDA of £0.5m • Mark Pyrah will now resume the position of Chief Executive Officer with immediate effect • At the request of a major shareholder the Board will not now be proposing resolution 5 (allotment authority) and resolution 6 (disapplication of pre-emption rights). The primary purpose of resolutions 5 and 6 was to ensure that Paragon was able to meet all and any legal commitments it might have to issue shares Recently over a number of months prior to the meeting (and continuing after) the share price had been subject to increasing volatility and increased volumes including both Amati and Vulcan Holdings (ex Director interest) reducing below the 3% notifiable level and exiting as shareholders. On the morning of the 11th December the shares actually opened up 4% but were quickly sold off and at one point were down over 30% on the day (with selling continuing post AGM date). Over this same period whilst the ADFN Bulletin Board remained quiet as it usually was, there was a noticeable large increase in the mention of PEL via social media in general. If the reduction in 2015 Revs was taken as another profit warning (although note EBITDA remains the same) or the £11m turnover guidance for 2016 being below expectations, or a combination of the 2, were perhaps the reasons remains to be seen? The volatility on the day prevented at least 3 Private Investors missing the meeting that I know to. The meeting was delayed by 20 minutes for a late arrival (PI), opened and chaired by Mark Taylor. Mark Pyrah then did the presentation and I have tried to comment from the questions raised in the order of the presentation. Page 3. No current focus on the Attractions division although not ruled out medium to long term following exit from Quest Merry Hill. Main focus is on the Design and Build (D&B) as this is the bread and butter and what PEL currently do best. Licenses are secondary; however there could be some future overlap similar to Hamleys license with NERF for example. Whilst Quest failed financially it did open doors to Hamleys and other (unknown as not divulged to us yet) relationships. No further accounting needed for Quest exit (I assume that meant post 2014 write offs) Page5.Trail of profit warnings needs to stop and has contributed to little sentiment towards the Company in the Market, also compounded by covenant breach and late 2014 Results due to disputes. (Kidzania?). Covenant breach is now in the past and trading with terms, although currently in overdraft. BoD looks light as MP has sales and design strength, MT and MB managing attractions strength but no manufacturing. New COO to have more manufacturing experience to compliment the team and release MP and PH more to their relevant levels of strength and focus (Note COO is accounted for in any 2016 projections) Page 9 &10. Main focus going forward on Hamleys, Lambda, Majif Al Futtaim (MAF), Olympic Committee, Dubai Park (motiongate, DreamWorks), Golden Hall (Lamda) as all offer substantial repeat projects. Note-Hellinikon Athens (Lamda project, LOI signed but nothing expected for 2 years due to size of project and Greek Government involvement) Page 11. Current D&B capacity around £12m to £13m not space constrained although the set up is spread over a number of Sites (far from ideal), and it does seem on easy in/out and short term lease’s. Currently no problems recruiting direct staff. Project Managers are included in cost of sales (i.e. in Gross profit) Strategic alliances, framework agreement and partnerships are starting to bear fruit but have taken longer than hoped. For example Hamleys has taken over 3 years to get the framework signed. Page 12.Order book at record high. No figures were given for (contracted) order book or overall Pipeline. It was stated PEL need to be consistent in reporting these in future. Page 13. Licensing. Target for some growth but secondary to D&B. Note Funlandia is the old ‘soft play’, HiLo challenge domes still includes possibility of Bear Grylls but some capex required so on a back burner. Page 14. Emphasis was placed on advising the Co. to move to and include eps predictions along side EBITDA as soon as possible EPS and free cash flow positive by end 2016. Margins- Guidance was given for 22% Gross Profit. This is lower than previous guidance at the 2014 AGM of 25%; however, as repeated by the Co Margin improvement is a key target. Headcount has reduced from 100 to roughly 80. However that is just a headcount, No of part time etc not included. More use of stated Freelance may explain it No major use currently of use of sub contract. Any major project sub-contracting reduces to 10%margin so PEL trying to keep all in house. Page 15. Note Co has increased turnover in 4 out of the last 5 years. 2013 peaked at circa £9.5m Page 16- Rough 26% Management and 26% II holdings Page 19- Note Framework is for Hamleys World. Pi’s have found to date 11 possible Hamleys worlds for next few years. Also plans for expansion via smaller stores but unlikely any work for PEL (airports etc) Note any Hamleys over 3 for 2016 and/or 4 for 2017 will be above any current forecasts LAMDA-Possible 4 projects excluding Hellinkon Athens MAF-significant opportunities above and beyond 2016 (INCORP) Page 22. High profile customers and relationships. Hopeful of new representation deal early in new year. Page 28. Targeting 20% growth per annum over the next 5 years. Turnover has doubled since 2010 Communications/ Strategy/Performance. As the meeting progressed there was quite some digression and discussion. The feeling from PI’s was that the good news ref. Hamleys and Dubai Park had not been communicated in an effective way to maximise the share price and deliver share holder value. It has to be said though that this news has been tempered with a string of profit warnings from the Company all related to delayed or rescheduled contracts. There was also an undercurrent of feeling that PEL do not understand the working of the Market. This will always be a live threat the PEL turnover as they are not often in a position when if one contract is delayed that another can be pulled in to its place. However it also needs to be stated that bespoke short term contracts for quick delivery can be forthcoming, but generally a risk to turnover remains. 2014 resulted in 2 profit warnings which I assume to be kidzania related. Looking at the opening of that project in London I suspect KZ also fell into 2015 through no direct fault of PEL. I am also of the opinion that PEL have always predicted their then total contracted order book for that year. I.e. contracted order book for 2014 £10m so prediction equals £10m. So any delays equals a miss and profit warning, Pel are left with no where to go. In fact looking at 2015 I wonder if they predicted more than the then current order book as it appears Dubai Park was delayed until Q3 hence profit warns in 2015? In some ways it was not an easy meeting as the BoD were hit around the head with previous profit failures a number of times, despite increases in turnover. It appears (please refer to previous notes) that ‘unofficial’ market expectations for 2016 projections were much higher than the £11m predicted, and that a significant % of the Company was in the hands of short term traders, hence the sell off on the day of and following the AGM? PEL have reviewed part of their procedures and strategies which I understand to be- • The Management will not focus on short term share price movements. They commit to generating shareholder value as has always been the goal over the medium / long term • No immediate dilution (Note- if my understanding is correct then it would require an EGM for that to happen before the next AGM). Nor are their any plans for dilution. • They are looking at ways of reducing reliance on overdraft from a number of ways including pre-payments. One customer offered a substantial pre payment (I believe Dubai Parks) up to £1m but this can be counter effective as a Bond as ‘insurance’ needs to be entered. The full pre payment was not taken up, but indication some of it was. • The Company is usually under a Non Disclosure Agreement (NDA) with contracts and Frameworks which greatly restricts the amount of particularly financial detail which can be communicated, as it could compromise the position of the Client (customer). Hence no direct financial detail with Hamleys. • RNS will be forthcoming as per Market regulations and taking advice from the NOMAD (Finncap) including any NDA restrictions, and within the remit of their Q& A statements on the web site • Whilst no current contracted order book figure is available the Company strives to reduce the chances of further profit warnings as they realise the effect on sentiment and share price performance this leads to. To that end the BoD are endeavouring to find a % of order book to predict with the goal of eliminating future profit warnings to a minimum by allowing for a certain amount of contract deferral. It was stressed that both contracted order book and total pipeline are both at record highs. (Note x10 fold increase in pipeline since listing at end 2014). It was stressed the Co needs to communicate the order book and pipeline in future communications in a uniform way. Therefore my understanding is that the current contracted order book for 2016 is well in excess of £11m. • My understanding is that 2 years of revenue visibility is not currently realistic. However ,my understanding is that some works are already contracted for 2017. • The BoD will endeavour to promote the Company via presentations and meetings etc. Proposed Resolutions. All were passed but note as previous Resolutions 5 and 6 were withdrawn at request of a major shareholder. My understanding is that this prevents any dilution other than at an EGM. Please also note that the Company have verbally committed to bring the next AGM forward to a more logical date of June 2016 (6 months away) The meeting was closed but unfortunately MT had to leave promptly which can be annoying to attendees and hope is not repeated next year. (Unless personal reasons prevailed off course)
pj 1: ramas- I agree with you that PEL (as with most other shares) should be valued on a fundamental basis and not regarded or looked at as similar to any 'blue sky' stocks, especially as being specialist manufacturing it is relatively labour intensive. Even on a fundamental basis there are a few different ways to measure it as we all know. No matter how 'big' the contracted order book PEL will always have the 'lumpy Revenue' risk but it is clear to me the BoD have worked extremely hard during 2015 to reduce this to a now much reduced risk. Funding does look tight as discussed on a number of occassions and is certainly an area PEL will have to work hard on as we move forward, and was obviously discussed at the AGM. Unfortunately, the share price has been extremely volatile on much greater volumes over the last few months. Whilst some recent news flow has quite rightly had a negative effect the good (excellent) news has not really been digested. How many are actually aware that the framework agreement with HAMLEYS followed 3 years of talks? No doubt the share price has also suffered additional volatility as it has been highlighted a few times by such likes of Zak Mir and judged totally on an unemotional chart/technical basis.I am sure, imo, that affected the selling on Friday as short term traders exited.(yes I accept they also bought in at some point) I am trying to ignore all the 'noise' (easier said than done). If there had been no noise, would PEL have been sold off on an £11m 2016 Revenue projection? We all know market sentiment and share price momentum, lacking in PEL currently, can play a part in the value of any Company. I hope to write up my notes and summary thoughts of the AGM by the middle of next week for those interested.
pj 1: ramas 7 Dec'15 - 19:04 - 1077 of 1077 0 0 I have been doing some research but I am struggling to see the opportunity here , what am i missing ? – PEL has a track history of net losses even at a recent revenue peak in 2014 at £10m / 0.53p loss per share. I see gross profit compression from 30% to 20% over 4 years results so its a competitive environment – maybe explaining the ‘take it or leave it’ framework for the deal with Hamleys. The big problem are PEL admin costs which needs some serious attention. I didnt see if contracts are open or closed book deals but the relative GP consistency over the years implies formal or informal open book approach. PJ you mention that with the Hamleys good news turnover might reach the dizzy heights of £10m but to me this means more losses unless they can hit 40-50% GP margins and control admin costs aggressively. I also note 14 million of additional share dilution in the last year which will likely continue to keep insiders happy ? To justify todays share price of 2.5p on a pe of 10 would require £467k profit after tax (or 0.25p eps) – applying some metrics to current data suggests £20m turnover minimum. For PEL to rise on fundamentals turnover would need to be much much higher – say 300% – is this really a possibility ? Seems very early stage with risk and potentially a lobster pot if you own in size (like another favourite of mine AEO but paying a 10% yield). I have no doubt Paragons customers love the work they do and given a few years this could translate into bottom line profits and maybe a dividend – I will keep observing and wish holders good luck ================================================================================ ramas, you raise some interesting points. Have you been drinking? Id stick with AEO and nothing else if I were you. Turnover in 2014 was £7.7m. where has £10m come from?# GP suffers from previous use of Sub-contract at lower margin hence variances. If you had spoken to the Company they would have explained. 25% seems a fair average from your figures Yes all business's are in a competitive market! ''Revenue from Hamleys may reach the dizzy heights of £10m'' Have I said that? Or did I infer the framework could include an estimated amount over a number of years based on Web comments from Hamleys? Did I use the word ''dizzy''? ''unless they can hit 40/50% GP'' Agree. I do not believe PEL can hit that % GP ''14 Million share dilution in the last year to keep insiders happy''? what dilution? what insiders? Do you mean 2013/2014? ''To justify todays share price of 2.5p on a pe of 10 would require £467k profit after tax (or 0.25p eps). I agree with the maths and the P/E ratio used,However.... Incorrect. Markets are historically forward looking not backward looking. I'd make a note of that if I were you "applying some metrics to current data suggests £20m turnover minimum'' Disagree. PEL have a previous 5 year target to hit £20m turnover by 2019 but that may have gone back 12 months due to 2014 delays. Why is £20m a minimum t/o target? What is AEO's 1, 3 or 5 year target? ''For PEL to rise on fundamentals turnover would need to be much much higher – say 300% – is this really a possibility ?'' 300% is unreasonable yes. I cannot see in the foreseeble future PEL achieving >£30.8m turnover. However you need to check your future fundamentals imo Agree AEO pay a 10% current dividend. Pel pay no dividend Have you phoned or called the directors of PEL? I suspect not somehow? Who did you talk to? What are PEL's plans for the future? You fail to mention it so I assume you have not researched this area in any depth or you are not interested in the future but past performance? What are AEO's future plans (financial?) PEL hold their AGM on Friday (no doubt despite all your research you were obviously not aware). I shall be attending. I will guarantee that when I ask about future plans and estimated future turnover and profit margins that it is not be responded to in the AEO way of '' we are not going to get involved in that Rubbish!'' (2014 AEO AGM) I strongly suspect PEL will have broker forecasts. Will AEO? I would also expect PEL to dispute and remove any false forecasts, if any existed in the market and replace with more accurate ones. Do AEO have a history of that? Please supply examples! I am currently unsure of your agenda here as well as your ''research'' I really look forward to your reply# Regards PJ EDIT- for the avoidance of any doubt I had my first squash match after 18 months out injured tonight, 2 stone heavier and I got trounced. I have also had a drink after,
pj 1: Research Following on from the AGM a good deal of research has been done which I would like to open up for discussion. Disclaimer- I am not qualified to give financial advice and nothing in this article, or any article written by me, should be taken as such. All views and interpretations are my own. I have attempted to remain impartial and report facts, however, and for the avoidance of doubt, I have long positions in PEL with a 3 to 5 year view Marwyn- The recent selling is partly down to Marwyn closing the Discretionary Trust. This resulted in the funds being passed directly to the stake holders as shares, and has no doubt resulted in some Investors selling to probably enter into other funds I made a connection with a representative of Realm ltd . Intu was immediately mentioned as being the big boys in the UK and arguably the most innovative. , Glasgow, Newcastle, Stoke, Watford, Nottingham x2, Lakeside Thurrock, Trafford Centre, Arndale, Bromley, Merry Hill, Uxbridge, Cardiff, Norwich, Gateshead, Bristol, Derby, Milton Keynes. Victoria Centre Nottingham is undergoing a full refurbishment and extension so could be interesting. Intu also have sites in Spain……Add Hamleys! So we know PEL have a great relationship and successful business with Hamleys, Intu have tied in with Hamleys, and Intu are the landlords of Merry Hill. ‘’ The world famous toy brand has an exclusive selection of stores outside its flagship Regent Street location, with four shopping centre stores in the UK, three of which are now located within intu centres, including intu Trafford Centre and St David’s Cardiff. Hamleys were mentioned quite a few times at the AGM. Only my opinion but I would suspect PEL are chasing at least x3 substantial contracts here. And hence starts yet another ‘connection’. The Peel Group Shopping Centres Intu Properties plc Peel's investments include a major shareholding in Intu Properties plc, the UK's leading specialist developer, manager and owner of regional shopping centres. The Intu portfolio comprises five major out of town centres including Intu Trafford Centre, Manchester which was delivered by The Peel Group; and nine in-town centres including those in prime locations such as Cardiff and Manchester. 2 + 2= We know the shopping experience is to change, we know PEL have been successful with Hamleys, we know Intu have seen what PEL can achieve. Peel will want to keep up! LAMDA- Hellinikon Guess where they are based? In Athens next door to the Olympic village.[email protected],23.793929,15z/data=!4m2!3m1!1s0x0:0x4ccb07a0c38bcfc7 Now who else has worked for the Olympic Museum, infact I believe PEL won additional works from the IOC whilst under contract at Lausanne Switzerland? Hellinicon is to be a world class facility costing 7 billion euros and will be the largest Real estate in Europe. Including shopping Malls, aquariums and family entertainment facilities! Right up PELS’ street! People buy from people…. Current status of partnership :- • LOI agreed on first location • JV under discussion • The project is expected to contribute to the country’s GDP by 1.2% annually until 2025, creating new national wealth generated from all areas of Greek businesses, as a result of the revitalization of the unemployed workforce and the creation of new investments. • The project will contribute to the creation of approximately 50.000 new job positions the period 2014 – 2025 and will employ specialized scientific workforce as well as technical labor force that is presently unemployed, especially during these times of financial crisis. • The revenue for the Greek Government (V.A.T., income tax, e.t.c. during the period of the project’s full operation is expected to amount to approximately 2 bil. Euro annually and will comprise a healthy and stable contribution to the national objective for budget surplus and balanced budgets. • Greece and greater Athens, strengthens their position as an international tourist destination, gaining 1.000.000 additional tourists each year thus attaining extra revenue in addition to the many other benefits for the economy. • The greater southern zone of Athens and the neighboring municipalities will have the opportunity to enter a new cycle of development and advancement, in conjunction with the other large projects that are presently being development in the area. 2 + 2 = ? There also appears to be some works ongoing at the Golden Hall, again a stone’s throw away from the Olympic village. I am unsure if PEL are involved. Maybe someone has some Greek connections? The first two levels of the shopping center host mainly shops of women’s, men’s, children’s fashion and footwear, accessories, jewellery stores, home equipment and decoration, cosmetics, sportswear, hair salon, bookstores etc. Shopping, visitors can indulge into a coffee and snack break among its 7 cafes. The third level has five restaurants offering visitors different gastronomic options of Greek and International cuisine as well as a playground for children and a fully equipped area for teenagers. The most famous Greek brand names and the most renowned international ones - many of which are introduced for the first time to the Greek market through Golden Hall - have made the shopping centre the new point of reference for quality shopping in Greece, offering a new dynamic to the commercial world. Furthermore, Golden Hall is becoming a cultural epicenter offering its visitors unique possibilities of recreation. The center has hosted various art exhibitions, shows from renown institutions like the National Theater of Greece, as well as many other similar kind of activities that offer Golden Hall’s visitor an enhanced experience. The original development cost for Golden Hall amounted to approximately €80 million, while its current commercial value (with the addition of IBC) approximates € 175 million. Following the acquisition of the entire former International Broadcasting Centre (IBC) for a period of 90 years an additional development of approximately 14,000m2 GLA for the Shopping Center and 250 parking spots will take place. The new development will enhance the existing tenant and product mix, with emphasis given to entertainment, and will result to transforming Golden Hall into the top market destination. Golden Hall is top rated in European Level in the European Shopping Centre Awards (ICSC) and was awarded the first prize in his category. It has also been awarded with the Silver Award in the category Traditional Marketing - Alternative Revenues, under the ICSC Solal Marketing Awards 2014. ECE-LAMDA Hellas, a specialist in the management of shopping centres, has undertaken the management of the centre. Funding in Greece? Fire Service. This is more subjective and more speculative but I refer to my own history-Major oaks grow out of little acorns- a) SPRP Sprue Aegis. Won a small ‘contract’ to supply smoke sensors to one brigade. Contract escalated quickly to Sole supplier for the whole Fire Service. Please refer to ADVFN for history b) Fire and Flood Restoration- Rainbow Int via ISS won a trial contract to offer restoration within KPI’s following brigade call outs. Within 3 months Rainbow were ‘preferred’ supplier to most brigades! INCORP “In 3 months working with INCORP we have grown a pipeline of sales in excess of £30m. - See more at: “ PEL have proved the standards, quality and delivery to this part of the world. Image you had just started a business from scratch, and suddenly within months you had a “pipeline “ of £30 million……….? More research required here! PEL’s job vacancies are high. I do not believe that is down to labour turnover at all and the vacancies are spread across different divisions. Very interestingly they are advertising for – Project Mangers About the Job Requirements Have a proven track record and a full understanding of the development and fit-out of museum, leisure, retail and other visitor attraction related projects, with project values ranging from £500K to £8m. Upto £8 million? Would not £8 million be larger than PEL have ever undertaken? Unless that relates to the “total project value” but then that seems too low so I assume its PEL project value. SUMMARY I am not going to predict any Revenues, EPS, or future share price . As with any growth Company funding is always an issue. If any Company is looking to grow Revenues by 300% or 400%in 5 years then multiple funding possibilities due to cash flow raise its head. We all also get extremely nervous with a constantly declining share price, seemingly in a declining channel. However, I strongly believe that the market has taken the delayed H2 2014 Revenues at face value and is currently totally missing the potential of the Company, and more amazingly the information that seems to be before us, as highlighted above. Believe it or not, the above research started from x1 phone call and x3 speculative emails. Plus just a little time and luck! PEL is now a large part of my Portfolio. Order Book. The Company has clearly published its RECORD CONFIRMED order book of £12 million well before the start of 2015. No doubt some of this confirmed order book will fall into 2016 and maybe a small part in to 2017. Yet above this the sales pipeline (for clarity sales leads) has risen by at least £30 million. It could possibly be well above £120 million . Due to the contacts above that could give an additional £5 million confirmed order book quite quickly, based on 50% conversion of tenders submitted. Then we have the connections with Hamleys/ Intu/ Peel group and Lamda/Olympics/ possibly Golden Hall have to be considered. I cannot help but wonder if the LAMDA first LOI is with Golden Hall and JOINT VENTURE under discussion is Hellinikon? Maybe someone has connections in Athens who can confirm if PEL or works are being progressed? Could the ‘other’ LOI be with Hamleys? Despite the late contract hic cups it appears to me we have a snowball effect here that will kick (or roll) to the work in progress from mid 2015 onwards. I am expecting serious additions to the contracted order book in the very near future. By comparing projects already undertaken or current WIP LAMDA. Hamleys and Incorp could feasibly double the confirmed (contracted) order book! Then there is the possibility that recurring Revenues build up as any Licensed and/or Attractions projects are undertaken? The change at CEO and Sales Director level was done for a reason in my opinion. Compounding increasing leads!
Paragon Ent. share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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