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Real-Time news about Niche Grp. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|welsh2: Yes it says in 2013 Ardilaun bought some licences offshore ireland from San Leon as part of the deal San Leon got 20% of ardilaun. Where are sound oil up to ?? Drilled well onshore Italy?? There share price has gone up nicely from 10p to 16p recently|
|atlantic57: It is best to view this as a 100% write off.
If The Company assets were really as good as the initial write up of asset value relative to share price implied , people would be falling over to invest.
Clearly the original valuations were somewhat optimistic.|
|tagsumo: if we look back to 13 Dec last year when the shares were suspended, the share price was moving up sharply due to 'whoever' getting wind of the possible RTO and NGP having Omans share.
At that time it wasnt seen as a bad thing otherwise it would not of risen?
i guess what i am syaing is along the lines that i think if they relist and they can raise funds it would be around the 2.5p price.
The length of time it has taken is too long in my eyes but the above is the only positive i can get from that, apart from the CPR, although not being fantastic has some positives.
bwtfd any of us know !|
Because of the managements' and some advisers' perceived track record here the placing price may not be 2.5p. Also, we do not know (or at least I do not know) what else they have had to present to investors of the more speculative and racy nature this week and last. I said a few times what I thought the placing price would be when you were ramping much higher numbers than ever was likely to happen.
Like you I don't know know what the price will be after re-listing, unlike you I won't try to give the impression it will be a one way bet in short order. (You still haven't defined a time frame for that 4.5p or was that the comma. "Once it absorbs" ... an hour, a day, a week, a month, three months?)
I suspect there will be an opportunity to buy first thing as there was with Pathfinder which fell 80%. My guess is a a fall of a quarter to a third from the placing price by the end of the first day of trade because I do not expect such a steep fall as with PFP. Thereafter investors will wait for proof of the pudding this time. If you are right about two good drill results then perhaps 3 or 4p after the first.
Then for those who decide to hold or buy and hold I think it will be a matter of patience as progress with the share price will be much influenced by the macros too.
PS: on the subject of transparent rampers Davina's been quite of late.|
|mm_allergy: "Irrespective of the time frame, you can't shut your eyes to what you've paid, or the 'big oil' to induce buyers. Where was that big oil?"
The posters who think the placing price is going to be circa 2p are probably right. Any more would be a bonus.
My mind keeps going back to the wonderful presentation I heard about at Oilbarrel in the first part of 2011 I think it was and a certain person who is not even a director mouthing off to the media. Then in the first days of July we get that CPR. What a shock, what an anti climax. Was it ineptitude, something worse, was it written by a ten year old or did its author really have no idea how the market would punish the share price? A week later and they release an utterly confusing update, the share price starts to fall faster and Daniel Stewart hurriedly run off "Back up the truck" and it found its way on to BBs in short order.
It wasn't until I read that document again after the share was suspended that it dawned on me that the oil was a red herring in the kind of time frame that would interest most PIs. For the placing to be materially above 2p after all of this surely the Konya CPR would have to report commercial oil that can be mined in the foreseeable future. If that were the case then the would not the info have leaked long before the suspension and would not the price have stayed well above the low of just shy of 2p.
What a nightmare this has been and we aren't even out of the woods yet.
Mostly I just want more openness and a re-listing in TC's time frame but how would we all react if the placing price was even less than most have resigned themselves to and was not an open placing and at least a third was bought by one person? (This question is not based on any kind of rumour just a suspicious mind.)
|mm_allergy: del, your sense of humour is appreciated and I can just imagine that it gets you in to as much trouble as mine does me. But we need one and I really enjoyed your last effort in particular.
OK, what really drives me nuts on BBs is the lack of balance when people tend to either ramp or the time or de-ramp. In your case I'm getting the feeling it is just in your nature to see the glass as half full whereas I am a pessimist who hopes he is wrong.
At the risk of repeating myself I will be as balanced as I can be with the following:
* I still think this share has massive potential
* I still think we will not only see 5p and 7p again but way beyond that but not in the next few months
* The main threat to the above, I think, is working capital but someone took twenty of precious minutes out of his day trying to explain why that was probably not an immediate issue
* But he wants to see the prelims and see if he can get some idea of cash-burn before saying how long they might have working capital for and maybe that won't be possible with the info soon to be in the public domain
* With good fortune smiling on us there will be nothing going on of the type alleged by the General in respect of Pathfinder but if such a practice is not a-typical for AIM then I really do not know how to evaluate that risk, which is why I would like that statement and I have written to the person who sold me the shares but can't see anything other than the prelims being released before mid-January
* The focus should have stayed on gas rather than oil being thrown in to the mix but now that has happened management are under pressure to prove up that oil (assuming it is considered "commercial") which could be one of the reasons we will could have quite a wait for Konya news
* In the context of the shoddy effort on July 6th and again July 13th and the plunge in share price thereafter it was management's duty to regain the market's trust and they clearly haven't as the share price keeps nudging up against the bid (I also think the one on 27/10 was good but it seems that it wasn't good enough)
* I think those of us who would prefer to get some or all of our money out or those of you who would like to make a juicy profit have a while to wait and I offer the following for consideration but I am guessing partly as I don't know for sure there will be a RTO or who long one would take:
Before Xmas - Prelims (guess) This week (guess)
Middle of the 3rd week in January - RNS about restructuring (guess)
Middle of the 4th week of January - RNS about Konya (guess)
Friday 27th January - AGM (guess)
By mid-March - voting papers to be with share holders (guess)
By end of April - deadline for proxy forms or whatever to be returned (guess)
Early June - RTO confirmed as complete (guess)
NB: I haven't tried to guess when the suspension period might be assuming there is one.
A few days later the share price goes boom unless the "sell in April and don't come back for ages" effect is in full swing once more but then again by then we may have QE3 on the go in the UK; QE3 in the States as surely Ben B has learned not to let that expire during the transition of Spring in to Summer; China may be talking up fresh stimulus and Merkel may have been locked in a cupboard. So who knows next summer could be the one to remember fondly for shares as 2009 was too.
I'm hoping that if there is an RTO that we will see a share price climbing through 5p and even on up to 7p in the second half of next year. So for me too the corporate structure is the most important thing provided we don't run out of money in the mean time. I've been hoping to see an RNS introducing a small placing at which point I would think: "ah, so that's what has really been going on behind the scenes".
Hmmm, I don't think casting aspersions about the motivation of others' views is any better than ramping or de-ramping without any balance to one's views.
My question about the AGM came about as a result of an email discussion I had over a period with another holder. A month or so ago I guessed the next share price moving news would be out a day or three before the prelims whereas he thought in the days leading up to the AGM. Then I pondered that if there was going be an RTO then would there be an AGM. You helpfully cleared that up and I will save those links to favourites and will have good read over the holidays.
As I alluded to I also see checking up on licences as being an investor's responsibility and will find out more about that. I wouldn't do it every time but should have done it this time.
I take your points but do you really have no material worries with this one?
As for doing comparisons I did do that a while back but need to look again. As for Junior Oils I don't think I can get them on the same chart as others but found the following.
If I didn't have too much committed to hydrocarbons already I would consider Junior Oils but think it would have to be a medium term investment.
As for concerns, prior to the Pathfinder suspension I was more frustrated with the apparent lack of communication and impatient than anything and having bought at just shy of 3.5p was considering a top up. Then I found out a little more about how a RTO works so am resolved to a far, far longer wait and will not commit more funds unless I thought it bonkers not to for some reason and the share price would have to be climbing.
As for Pathfinder I suppose I have the same impression on an agenda there as most people got the impression of from the FT article but I hope it not a case of no smoke without fire. As I said before a statement from the company would not go amiss even if it were no more than the Athol Gold one last week which I post below my signature. They could stick to the first sentence but a second about Konya or re-structuring might be helpful.
THE RNS BELOW IS NOT ABOUT NICHE
RNS Number : 2215T
Athol Gold and Value Limited
02 December 2011
02 December 2011
ATHOL GOLD AND VALUE LIMITED
("Athol" or the "Company")
Statement Re Share Price Movement
The Board of Athol notes the recent decline in its share price. It is unaware of any reason for the share price movement and notes that the shares trade at a steep discount to Net Asset Value.
The Directors are in negotiations to conclude two transactions which will materially increase funds under management and which, if concluded, will be executed at a price materially in excess of the current share price.
The Directors will keep investors informed of developments.
For further information contact:
Athol Gold and Value Limited
Jennifer Allsop, Executive Chairman|
|mm_allergy: Athol Gold (AHG) released a simple RNS saying there is no reason for the share price movement of late and reminding everyone that the NAV is much higher than the share price and the latter goes ballistic.
In light of the FT article about Pathfinder (PFP) and other information in the public domain about that suspended company a simple statement like that from Niche management would be most welcome but not as welcome as the following:-
(NB: the aforementioned article can be found below my signature.)
* Director buys outside of any scheme to loudly imply that they know the share price is too low and that they have confidence it will be materially higher in the future (a sound and investment in other words)
* A RNS updating us on restructuring with a "road map". (It's fair enough that these things take time but let them end most of the speculation about it. Further, it would be good of them to give us a hint as to how long we may be locked in for.)
December 1, 2011 9:03 pm
Pathfinder at odds with Mozambique general
By Paul Murphy
A row has erupted between a Mozambique general who was hoping to develop a metals mining prospect on the country's Indian Ocean coast and the London-based directors of Pathfinder Minerals, an Aim-quoted company that was planning to finance the venture.
General Jacinto Veloso, a former minister of state security in Mozambique, last week sent a detailed letter of complaint to the Aim regulation team at the London Stock Exchange. In the letter, he questioned Pathfinder's governance and challenged the company's ownership of assets in Mozambique.
Three days later, Pathfinder's London management, led by John McKeon, chairman, and Nick Trew, chief executive, issued a statement to the stock exchange. In the statement they said a new company called Pathfinder Moçambique, co-owned by General Veloso and Diogo Cavaco, his Portuguese lawyer, had been assigned an exploration and research licence over the same areas the London-based Pathfinder thought it was developing.
These include two mining concessions with potential ilmenite, rutile and zircon deposits relatively rare minerals used in manufacturing.
Pathfinder's shares were suspended in early November, three weeks after the general, a key member of the Frelimo movement that won independence from Portugal, resigned from the board.
Pathfinder is a combination of Naburi Mining Company, which General Veloso and his team had established in 2006, and the Moebase concession, a part-developed mine previously owned by BHP Billiton.
Backers include institutions such as JPMorgan Asset Management and professional investors such as Tim Horlick, the former Salomon banker who has sold out of the venture.
When Pathfinder's shares were suspended in London on November 11, the company said General Veloso had made a number of allegations. These were not detailed, although it was acknowledged that the general had told them they no longer owned the assets.
General Veloso, in turn, has been open about his move to have the mining rights transferred into a new local company. He said this was a legal transfer that would safeguard the project, claiming in a statement at the weekend that London-based Pathfinder never held any mining licences in Mozambique.
His complaint follows option grants in August in which rights to almost 90m Pathfinder shares were distributed to the core executive team, 10.8m to Tim Baldwin, a former director, and just 1m to himself. The company has about 1bn shares in issue and, while suspended, is capitalised at £32m ($50m).
Neither side was prepared to comment further.|
|mm_alergy: Is anyone else worried about how much working capital they have? For obvious reasons I was hoping we that the share price would get a chance to establish higher levels before the next in a long line of placings. (Placings will be welcome if they are to extract target or above target amounts of hydrocarbons.)
I suppose the Corporate Results due out on Friday might hint at cash burn.
Hopefully the sharpies who recently joined the payroll checked this before signing their employment contracts.
I'm itching to top up but there are a things holding me back:
1) If all shares are leaky then no good news is imminent so when are they going to release the keenly awaited news, after the festivities? (If so then averaging down at, say, 2.1 soon would be nuts.)
2) Is a big rise on the share price dependent on the oil being declared "commercial" or would that just be a bonus? (Management always seem to leave us wanting when they do eventually get around to reporting.)
3) Lack of visibility on most things including working capital (the 25 Nov date for Corp Results had not been confirmed but that doesn't mean the deadline will be missed)
4) For a long time now the share price has very quickly dropped after news
5) Lack of liquidity and I would have thought the last CPR RNS would have created more of that and a higher share price and for longer than just a matter of minutes
6) A rights issue as I would want money for that. (The guys on Kenmare who took a deep breadth, participated and held did really well out of something that was disturbing for them at the time.)
I have an average or about 3.5p and whereas I used to dream of 10p early next year now I just look for breaking even, a sounder company structure and a slow gradual climb to my target with a few business building placings on the way
PS: I don't see why some of us shouldn't worry about the JMc connection with Pathfinder. But I wouldn't sell something with this much potential because of it. I might have a short term impact though.|
|liquid millionaire: Well well that truly outstanding RNS from NGP says it all but perhaps i will still add a few comments shortly. As with many placings it looks very much as though the MM's want to mark down the NGP share price back towards the placing price which was also as it goes the previous all time highs.
IMHO this has to represent a massive BUYING opportunity in NGP!|
Niche Group share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange