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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Network Data | NDH | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 3.375 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.375 | 3.375 |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 20/8/2007 11:11 by masurenguy LOL - the NDH share price is totally manipulated by the MMs. This morning it is up 19% on no news and no trades either !The MMs can do this since circa 80% is owned by Griffths and his wife and more than 10% is owned by staff which means that the free float is tiny. |
Posted at 29/4/2007 10:47 by masurenguy Well the big question is what will be the impact of HIPS both on the property services sector as a whole and also specifically on NDH !We can only wait and see - nobody can really answer that question at this stage. However what one can say is that the future prospects for NDH are very much linked to their success in exploiting the new HIPS market. They have borrowed money to fund Hipstar (circa £1.4m) and now they need to get a return on that investment. If you add back the development cost of Hipstar and the AIM listing into the 2006 P & L then the PAT would have been circa £1.2m. This would give you an historic PE of circa 15 at Fridays closing share price. Thats not particularly expensive but it is not cheap either especially for a company of this size that has borrowings over £3m. Future valuation is very much dependent upon the success of Hipstar - if it achieves its objectives (as in the very bullish £55m sales forecast for 2007) then you could see the share price at 100p. If it doesn't, as a small and VERY illiquid AIM fledgling (remember Griffiths still holds 79%), then we could see it remain in a 50p - 70p range for some time. |
Posted at 29/4/2007 09:52 by nurdin You telling only half the story Measureguy and, as expected, scaremongering has started!Its natural that right wing newspapers like the Torygraph will do anything to tow the Tory line!-First of all, look at the core business.Network Data Handling is one of the fastest growing mortgage network in the country and last year recorded 29% growth in revenues -PBT came in at £.22m ,INCLUDING HIPS investment costs of £1.4m,higher tax charges and the exceptional listing costs.Without these costs NDH would have recorded PBT of around £1.7-£1.8m -the core business is generating sufficent cash to cover interest charges by a healthy 4x -leaving HIPSTAR aside for the moment,it is reasonable to assume that the core business will lift profits from the mortgaging business by another 20% (on a conservative estimate) giving a PBT of (from the core business)of say £2m -for 07 brokers are forecasting PBT of £2.4m which suggests to me that they are allowing only £0.4m pbt from the HIPS business this year - I dont know where you get your sums from but would be interested to know how you arrive at 'HIPSTAR building income at a rate of £1.5m per month' - I give full credit to the management for seizing the opportunity to invest in a market that is expected to be worth over a £bn over the coming years.Borrowing of £3m to address this market is a small fry in relation the reward NDH could rip |
Posted at 29/4/2007 08:26 by masurenguy Well NDH have increased their gearing and invested heavily in building a facility to exploit the HIPs market. Current borrowings are above £3m, not insignificant for a company with sales of £29m and net assets of circa £1.1m.Interest cover in the year just ended was just 1.9 so NDH need to be generating a significant revenue income from HIPS quite quickly to start recouping their investment. If HIPS does start to clog up house sales then this will not be good news for NDH since it would reduce their projected HIPS revenue stream and mortgage income. Continuity of survey business would not offset this since this currently represents less than 10% of their sales is not yet contributing any profit. The current Edison forecast envisages a 90% increase in sales this year, from £29m to £55m, which is a very ambitous projection and largely dependent upon a very quick and substantial inflow of business from their new Hipstar division, so there is no way that any slowdown in the processing of property sales, due to the advent of HIPS, would "benefit" NDH. In order to recoup their investment, service their debt costs and achieve broker targets, NDH need to hit the ground running with Hipstar and start building an income stream up to the level of around £1.5m a month in order to achieve current broker forecasts for the current year. Their Q1 'trading in line with expectations' update was based upon 'the volume of house transactions driving the business' and has no bearing on HIPS since this will not be a factor until the second half of the year. NDH still have all to play for and have made a substantial investment in HIPS in order to rapidly expand their business going forward but the picture will not be so rosy in the short term if HIPS does succeed in 'clogging up' house sales. |
Posted at 28/4/2007 10:15 by tipsytoad felix if hips clogs up the house sales and this is a real senario then as I see it, it will benefit NDH as it will (a) insure a continuity of work for HIPS surveyors (b) give NDH the continued opportunity to keep increasing the HIPS surveyors so expanding into a growing area mortgages will always be in demand (more people coming into the country needing more homes etc) many investors are going into the 'buy to let' market, as unfortunately the rich/poor divide is growing Personally I would like to see NDH offer a package whereby a HIPS pack could also offer the purchasers a mortgage, (subject to the usual conditions) as to make the sale easier and more advantageous to all parties. buyer, seller and NDH |
Posted at 25/4/2007 19:56 by chrisg someuwin - Yes, it does look like a daunting list, doesn't it! However, if you read the details of the companies listed, you'll find that the great majority are not themselves HIP providers. They are providers of some of the services which will be required by the HIP providers, such as software, geological surveys, etc. In fact if you start at the bottom of the list and read all the business descriptions, you'll find you need to get to the seventh firm up from the bottom, before you get to a firm which actually competes with NDH. A number of the firms listed might well be firms that NDS will themselves contract with in producing the HIPs (remembering that NDH has made it clear that they will be outsourcing the whole of the services required to produce the HIPs).Also, it was always clear that there would be competition, and that the major estate agent chains would be able to produce HIPs in-house. The important point is the the profitability assumptions have been based on having only a 6% market share. That means that if as many as 94% of home sellers get their HIP elsewhere, NDH will achieve all that is being anticipated. Bearing in mind their existing links via their mortgage/insurance activities, they must be pretty sure of their market share. After all, all the firms will have been trying to get their connections with estate agents and solicitors for many months now. There shouldn't be any surprises really. Of course differing views are what makes a market, and nobody selling now will be taking a loss, so it may well make much sense to lock in what is presumably a significant profit if you have worries. After all, nobody went bust by taking a profit! Anyway, I hope your next investment is as successful as NDH for you. :-) |
Posted at 20/4/2007 12:29 by 130407 worth re-postingHABAYYUT - 12 Apr'07 - 13:39 - 58 of 69 some interesting points in the three documents above: IC STATE (1)"NDH acts as a panel manager for mortgate insurance brokers and now accounts for a fifth of all mortgages sold by them - twice as many as the next panel" (2)Re: HIPS: - "Analysts are expecting some spectacular trading figures over the next two years, assuming the housing market stays strong" (3)"Researcher Edison forecasts profits of £2.4m in 2007 and £6.4m in 2008" DIGITAL LOOK STATE (1) "The shares are tightly held, the CEO owns 80% with his wife, An employee share scheme owns a further 10%, and the free float is little more than 5%" - (this equates to 1.4m shares) (2)"Liquidity can be improved from issuing shares for acquisitions......th EDISON RESEARCH STATE - 12 March 07 (1)of the 2006 results ...."NDH came in above our forecasts.....the main differences were revenues were 3% higher than we expected and operating costs 2% lower" (2)"We believe that the Government reversing its planned launch of HIPs in June has significantly declined, with launch less than 3 months away" (3) "We value NDH using a DCF calculation, using a HIPs business with 6% share at 99p/share" (4)"NDH's normalised pre-tax profit of £276k was 90% ahead of our forecasts of £145k" (5) "Management expect to pay a divident of 0.35p/share in 2007" (6)Management currently expects there to be three other major players in this field other than HIPSTAR, including LMS, First Title and MDA. Management expects that these 4 players will gain about 80% of the market" |
Posted at 12/4/2007 13:39 by habayyut some interesting points in the three documents above:IC STATE (1)"NDH acts as a panel manager for mortgate insurance brokers and now accounts for a fifth of all mortgages sold by them - twice as many as the next panel" (2)Re: HIPS: - "Analysts are expecting some spectacular trading figures over the next two years, assuming the housing market stays strong" (3)"Researcher Edison forecasts profits of £2.4m in 2007 and £6.4m in 2008" DIGITAL LOOK STATE (1) "The shares are tightly held, the CEO owns 80% with his wife, An employee share scheme owns a further 10%, and the free float is little more than 5%" - (this equates to 1.4m shares) (2)"Liquidity can be improved from issuing shares for acquisitions......th EDISON RESEARCH STATE - 12 March 07 (1)of the 2006 results ...."NDH came in above our forecasts.....the main differences were revenues were 3% higher than we expected and operating costs 2% lower" (2)"We believe that the Government reversing its planned launch of HIPs in June has significantly declined, with launch less than 3 months away" (3) "We value NDH using a DCF calculation, using a HIPs business with 6% share at 99p/share" (4)"NDH's normalised pre-tax profit of £276k was 90% ahead of our forecasts of £145k" (5) "Management expect to pay a divident of 0.35p/share in 2007" (6)Management currently expects there to be three other major players in this field other than HIPSTAR, including LMS, First Title and MDA. Management expects that these 4 players will gain about 80% of the market" |
Posted at 08/4/2007 11:00 by nurdin Hi HABAYYUTTheir house brokers have recently raisd their target price from 78p to 98p.There is no timescale given but I personally think we should get there within 6 to 9months time if not sooner.Looking further,it all depends on the state of the housing market over the next few years and how effective NDH are in addressing the HIPS market.With their heavy investment in HIPSTAR and having spoken to the company, I feel confident however that NDH are well placed to capture a bigger share of the market than assumed in the brokers forecasts. If the housing market remains reasonably bouyant over the next few years,I have no doubt we could easily see 150p here over an 18mnths view.That would still rate NDH at a modest 10x earnings on current forecasts. |
Posted at 08/4/2007 10:10 by nurdin I am amazed there is so little interest in NDH at a time when the Government is about to press the red button on HIPSNDH have invested heavily in HIPSTAR over the last 18months and I understand they have recently recruited about 50 call centre staff to deal with queries and take orders. On brokers forecasts NDH are currently trading at 9x this years earnings,falling to 3.5x for 08.Those estimates are based on the assumption that NDH have just 6% of the HIPS market which, given that they are one of the three biggest vendors of the product, looks very conservative indeed.Brokers have also allowed for some slowing down in the housing market over the next couple of years which therefore mitigates the risks somewhat. I expect NDH to start moving strongly next week..... |
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