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Real-Time news about Network Data (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|thinkingman: Trade went through earlier which might explain the jump. MMs can manipulate the price all they like but I won't sell my holding. I think there is only one?? Liquidity will probably be sorted out at some point future but I find it comforting that Griffiths & Co own 92%. I think the results out in September will give some certainty to this uncertain share price|
|masurenguy: LOL - the NDH share price is totally manipulated by the MMs. This morning it is up 19% on no news and no trades either !
The MMs can do this since circa 80% is owned by Griffths and his wife and more than 10% is owned by staff which means that the free float is tiny.|
|masurenguy: Network Data - sunk costs but the business is still swimming
Author: IC | Posted: May 22 @ 22:19
The news today that the introduction of Home Information Packs ('HIPs') will be delayed until 1st August not surprisingly brought about a sharp fall in the share price of Network Data. Although with only c£3,000 value of shares traded today's fall was hardly representative of wider shareholder opinion! The AIM quoted group has committed a great deal of its hard earned money (it didn't raise any new money on float) to supporting HIPS and today's classic government back track will have probably caused Chief Exec and 78% shareholder Richard Griffiths to question the wisdom of his decision to whole heartedly invest in HIPs through his Hipstar operation which was due to kick off in earnest on 1st June. It now appears to be doubtful that they will be ever be brought in at all at least ti any extent.
Yes, it is clearly bad news for NDH but there is a lot more to this £13.6m market cap business than just HIPs. A look at the annual results to 31st Dec 06 revealed pre-tax profit of £220,000 but this was after writing off £1.4m on Hipstar. So the results excluding Hipstar would have resulted in a profit of c£1.6m and this was after incurring a loss on the new Network Surveyors business. If one assumes that the original core mortgage broking business continues to perform, factor in some profitability for Network Surveyors (turned profitable in the first half of 06) and even allowing for further Hipstar cost write offs, the shares don't look bad value.
Any further share price falls would appear to represent a buying opportunity. Unfortunately this is where the problems really begin because, with Mr Griffiths holding 78% of the shares and no money raised on float, there just aren't any shares out there. So they came to AIM but didn't need any new funds and the Chief Exec and staff hold nearly all of the shares.
Once again I question why they on earth they came to AIM in the first place!|
|masurenguy: Well the big question is what will be the impact of HIPS both on the property services sector as a whole and also specifically on NDH !
We can only wait and see - nobody can really answer that question at this stage. However what one can say is that the future prospects for NDH are very much linked to their success in exploiting the new HIPS market. They have borrowed money to fund Hipstar (circa £1.4m) and now they need to get a return on that investment.
If you add back the development cost of Hipstar and the AIM listing into the 2006 P & L then the PAT would have been circa £1.2m. This would give you an historic PE of circa 15 at Fridays closing share price. Thats not particularly expensive but it is not cheap either especially for a company of this size that has borrowings over £3m.
Future valuation is very much dependent upon the success of Hipstar - if it achieves its objectives (as in the very bullish £55m sales forecast for 2007) then you could see the share price at 100p. If it doesn't, as a small and VERY illiquid AIM fledgling (remember Griffiths still holds 79%), then we could see it remain in a 50p - 70p range for some time.|
|masurenguy: Share price went up 50%, from 60p at last Thursdays close to a high of 90p on Tuesday, on no news whatsoever. When this happens, in just 3 sessions, it is usually traders jumping in on some rumour, driving up the price amd then quickly taking profits as they move on, leaving the share to fall back just as sharply.|
|mikeyboy5: Can someone please explain to me why this share is still going down when we had such positive news this morning, the future looks positive with HIPS etc, brokers give it a target of 99p.... I am on board and regard it as a good medium to long term investment but I jsut don't undrstand the mechanics of the drop in the share price.|
|johnsoho: I think the reason for such sharp share price movements is because so few of these shares are available to investors. The company has 28,100,000 shares in issue of which Richard Griffiths, the Chief Executive, owns 22,167,130 (78.9%) thus leaving just 5,932,870 to satisfy investors demand.
Just a few buys or sells moves the share price quite substantially.
If you think HIPS are going to become a reality on 1 June then these shares, in my view, are a 'must have' because, again in my view, I think NDH will obtain a reasonably profitable % of that market....quite what % that will be remains to be seen.
If on the other hand you think that HIPS will not happen or people will suddenly cease to want to sell properties then in my view you are better of not holding these shares.
As always, do your own research etc|
|masurenguy: You seem to be ploughing quite a lonely furrow here johnsoho.
Interesting company and it looks as though it could have some interesting potential with its nicely tuned business model leveraging surveying and HIPs off its core mortgage and insurance intermediary business.
Downsides would appear to be:
1. Total exposure to the UK residential property market (which is probably overdue a correction in prices) but the risk relates primarily to the volume of transactions and their consequent share of that volume.
2. The future growth of the business is heavily skewed towards the implementation of the watered down HIP which is due to become mandatory in June this year (unless cancelled by the government). If the government were to pull the plug of HIPs altogether then I don't think this company would have much future as a quoted entity, based purely on their existing mortgage, insurance and surveying services (solid but pedestrian) and they would also have to write off over £500K in HIPs investment.
So far this share has been very illiquid. There are 28.1m shares in issue and since its AIM debut on 29/9/07 the total trading volume has only been 325.5K shares or circa 1.1% of shares in issue. Since their IPO on 29/9 there have only been shares traded on 21 days out of 76 trading days and this was mainly during the first 6 weeks when shares were traded on 17 days out of 28. Shares have only been traded on 4 days out of 48 since October 30th and on the other 44 days no shares were traded at all !
The key to this company is going to be future developments related to HIPs. If HIPs happens then there is probably a potential upside of 50%+ in the current share price this year and if they can successfully market their service through the 12000 Estate Agents in the UK (who will need some service support in this area) then future upside will be there too. However if mandatory HIPs are ultimately dropped then the share price will probably drift down by around 25% and consolidate in that area.
Worth keeping an eye on and it will stay on my Watchlist until their is final confirmation of a mandatory HIPs programme being implemented this year. If and when this happens it should have investment potential but it HIPs doesn't happen then it would be of no further interest.|
|johnsoho: The Chrismas & New Year double issue of Shares magazine has an article titled 'Sting like a bee' where they have listed this years second half floats in order of performance.......of the 128 companies listed in order of their share price performance, Network Data Holdings came in 13th....RenSola came in as numer 1
Looking forward to Network Data Holdings performance in 2007
Merry Christmas to all holders.........and actually anyone else reading this post!!!!|
Network Data share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange