Mytrah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[banking1] 23/1/2014 12:13

price is up so someones buying!

im long here at 75.51p

undevalued imo against gko

[salpara111] 23/1/2014 10:56

Massive dump this morning, almost 6M share sold!
Not sure what that means.

[knackers] 23/1/2014 10:50

Seller cleared out! That would probably explain the value disparity. If the past is any guide should see a rapid re-rate from here.

[knackers] 23/1/2014 10:03

Predicting forward capacity with accuracy isn't straightforward esp for such large scale turbine installation and should always be taken with a mighty pinch of salt. The fact remains that MYT's power generation capacity is tracking only fractionally behind GKO and past performance suggests their utilisation is just as good, if not better.

The void in comparative values is still not satisfactorily explained by the above IMO.

[salpara111] 22/1/2014 10:00

Last night I went through most of the RNS's since the company floated and now I have a much better understanding of why the share price has underperformed and that is due to the fact that they keep setting specific targets for installed capacity along with date targets and they have not got anywhere near them and the problem is that they continue to release targets and continue to miss them by a country mile, they also don't seem to acknowledge that they are missing their targets by a mile but continue to say what a good job they are doing. I am assuming this is an Indian cultural thing but it does not wash with a UK listed company.
I see the current share price as fair but without major improvement in terms of getting installed capacity up and running I don't see much room for a big walk up.
In one of their first statements after listing they announced that their target is to have 5000MW of installed capacity by 2017!!!! but in three years they have struggled to get to 500MW so what is the probability that they will increase that by a factor of 10 in the next 3-4 years.
In short, management have a serious credibility issue.

[knackers] 18/1/2014 15:10

I'd have thought tricky to do that comparison Salp. MYT shifted its FY to this calendar year to correctly capture the storm season. Also before August MYT was more or less shadowing GKO's valuation. The disparity has opened up in the last 5-6 months.

[salpara111] 16/1/2014 12:56

Just had a quick look at GKO Vs MYT again and the variation in valuations is now rational to me.
At the last half year GKO made approx £8,75M after tax, the figure for MYT "before exceptionals" was just £3.125 so that would be a rational explanation for the different valuations.....GKO is a much more profitable company on a MW generation basis so deserves a much higher rating.
I finally went though the last set of MYT results properly and have to say that their debt level and servicing requirement makes this a rather riskier play than I previously imagined.
I have not dug through GKO financial data enough to determine why they are much more profitable on a MW basis so can't really comment on that.

[mangal] 15/1/2014 17:16

nice rise today - more to come, I think.

[knackers] 15/1/2014 14:39

In valuation terms now huge ground to be made up against GKO. Difficult to explain why MYT has been dumped out while GKO has soared. Fair value target for MYT must be well > £1 which would remain far short of GKO's current valuation.

[salpara111] 06/12/2013 09:36

Well as an investor in the new Infinis IPO where I am now under water as a result of the UK government announcing that they are cutting FITs by 10% over the next few years. I won't be taking a stake here as the risk is just too high that a similar event could happen in India.

[salpara111] 28/11/2013 09:34

I dont think there is necessarily a problem with the business itself, however, as I have mentioned before there is always the bogey of Indian Corruption/Graft that adds risk to investing in any company in India.
In addition, you have the currency decline and general market sentiment towards renewable power.
I am still looking at mid December to take a stake however I would like to see the share price starting to trend back up again before committing.

[knackers] 27/11/2013 17:29

A chasm now between MYT and GKO valuations - that needs to be explained! Could be a forced seller here. Either way could be a great buying opportunity in the coming days...

India Rupee vs USD remains solid enough in the 61-63p range. Far from where it was in August.

[knackers] 26/11/2013 14:41

Indeed, but critically, revenue, costs and debt are denominated in Indian Rupees i.e. matched/aligned. Dollar strengthening/weakening has no cash and economic impact on the Company as all of its contracts are in Indian rupees.

Increases in generating capacity more significant IMO

[salpara111] 19/11/2013 16:56

I guess the obvious thing here that I have been overlooking is the fact that their revenues are all in Rupees and they report in $ so the next set of financials are not going to look very attractive as the Rupee has collapsed in value Vs the $ over the last 6 months.
Keeping an eye on this one but as mentioned before I don't intend to take a position before mid december at the earliest.

[knackers] 19/11/2013 14:39

725k single trade. Think that would probably explain the current SP!

[salpara111] 15/11/2013 16:36

Saw the director buy....agreed not much considering their current holding but welcome nonetheless.
I am looking at taking a stake here but I am currently in both the big new IPOs, Merlin and Infinis and I am intending on holding them until the ftse reshuffle in December as they will both gain entry.
At that point I will look at MYT.

[knackers] 15/11/2013 14:34

Hi Sal, I think the directors would agree with your take on MYT being undervalued. Only a token purchase but most encouraging just before the closed period.

[salpara111] 12/11/2013 09:10

Just had a quick look at GKO and would have to agree that there appears to be a big disconnect in valuations, having said that I have not done a proper review so I might be missing something.
Having said that, I would be more inclined to say that GKO is somewhat overvalued while MYT may well be undervalued.
I just feel rather uneasy when, after the last positive results, the market has not bought this up.

[knackers] 08/11/2013 09:21

I think legally that would be an extremely tough one for that particular regional authority to drive through, Sal. Also that solar power generation is not utility scale - as CPV/advanced photovoltaic tech that makes it economically viable in hot/sunny regions of the world is only just coming to the market.

If you look at GKO's valuation it's clear MYT is due a re-rate - esp as both have closely comparable assets and investment programme - these stocks tend to follow one another.

Two factors make the investment case compelling into the LT,
1) India needs to urgently resolve it's energy/power generation deficit
2) It must diversify away from an over-reliance on [imported] fossil fuel powered generation.

Further I have confidence in the quality/integrity of the management team at MYT to deliver. They are a highly competent team.

[salpara111] 07/11/2013 10:06

I see that one of the Indian regional governments is trying to retrospectively cut FITs for solar power.....it is that sort of thing that makes people uneasy about investing in India.
I still think this is a decent company but I cannot ignore the risks associated with the country they operate in.

[salpara111] 30/10/2013 12:27

Just tried a test order for £10K stock and was offered at 89p which seems rather weak.
Still planning on taking a stake but think that I will hold off right now.

[mangal] 28/10/2013 19:38

Yes, looking good.

[knackers] 28/10/2013 18:41

Break-out from downward trend channel underway - bullish picture forming.

Support: 84p
Resistance: £1.04

Break through £1.04 accompanied by high volumes esp bullish signal could point to new highs and a resumption of the upward trend channel (Sep 2012).

...That said near doubling of capacity in the next 2 months might have some influence on the share price ;o)

[mangal] 22/10/2013 11:00

Any TA experts here?

[knackers] 22/10/2013 10:46

Not what I said... "there has to be someone the other side of the trade"
Someone has to be prepared to take the stock 'on', whether a genuine buyer or the market maker/broker. And in a stock such as this believe me, MMs will be keeping an incredibly tight book. If a buyer emerges they have to go and find the stock.

Another tiny buy this morning...another tick up. Stock sold last week was placed.