Mytrah Energy Share Discussion Threads

[johncsimpson] 26/3/2012 14:46

Don't hold your breath but it looks as though there's about to be a 'gentle' breakout. Closing above 125 and then holding would be good. I'm just wary that there are so few trades here.

[johncsimpson] 26/3/2012 10:00

My chart as of this morning - that 122 area has been a sticking point again but should it push through this week then we're into new territory.

[johncsimpson] 23/3/2012 14:44

This has moved so fast, there's a possibility of a mini double top, i.e. MYT retraces to the 122p Fibonacci line and then falls back as it threatened to do from about last Wednesday. The small red bar from this mornings MACD has been replaced by a more healthy looking green bar. The other side of the coin is it breaks through that resistance line in the 122/125 area and goes on to new highs. Need to watch carefully but for the moment, I have a paper profit - always nice when a share in your account goes from red to blue

[johncsimpson] 23/3/2012 10:16

This mornings screenshot at about 9.55.

[matt] 23/3/2012 08:04

Having a MOU and having the finances with track record of timely delivery are different.

[johncsimpson] 23/3/2012 07:49

A bit more good news this morning -

. . . . a new memorandum of understanding ("MoU") with the Government of Andhra Pradesh for the development of up to an additional 2,800 MW of wind capacity in that state. . . .

Not 'game changing' but more progress which in truth is probably as much as we can expect i.e. slow but steady progress.

[johncsimpson] 22/3/2012 15:22

Wow - a bit big but did it

[johncsimpson] 22/3/2012 11:02

Re above - Trying to upload the image directly



Wack wack oops . . .

Added later - done some digging and it could be to do with the screenshot I'm using. I'll have another go; I've discovered a thread where it seems you can practice uploading to ADVFN.

[johncsimpson] 22/3/2012 09:59

Morning,

MATHISVALE (and anyone else interested) I've had a try at uploading a screenshot of my MYT chart in order to further explain the Heinken Ashi candles.

It downloads OK in Google Chrome and Opera though Firefox doesn't want to load the actual image. I don't use IE so not sure about that. It is possible to load directly to this thread using 'Tiny Pics' and I'll perhaps try that later or another time when the charts have moved on.

Below is the link you'll need. (You'll have to trust me here but it's safe to access/download). IMO there's more than a good chance that the price will fall back to the 105 area - the 'red blocks' (it's MACD but trying not to be too technical) on the lower graph have yet to appear. No guarantee they will, of course, but until the green blocks go back up the price will move in a downward direction. Least that's the usual perceived wisdom/consensus though only one of the indicators that I work on.



For anyone who thinks I'm trying to give financial advise here, I'm not. Nor am I ramping or de-ramping. I'm responding to earlier posts and I hold MYT shares which I bought earlier this week and against all the signs that I had begun to identify that were showing that what has happened these last few days would happen.

I got my timing wrong.

[mathisvale] 20/3/2012 20:52

johnc - thanks for taking the time and effort to reply - it is appreciated. As you have guessed I am not a short term trader. I have tried it but with little success - the general pattern for me was a few small gains followed by a big loss. I now stick to medium/long term investing - which is a lot more profitable

Good luck with your trading. I hope you have more success than I did.

[matt] 20/3/2012 16:59

And often share prices seem to show some hesitation around their previous all time highs. Add to that, for all their potential MYT is probably fairly valued especially as they haven't given any detail of revenue from the new turbines, the delivery of this first 500MW is a little delayed from original plans and there is the question of funding beyond the 500MW.

[johncsimpson] 20/3/2012 16:46

MATHISVALE - 20 Mar'12 - 11:06 - 40 of 40

Would you care to explain - that means little to the rest of us. TIA

That'll teach me - sorry, wasn't trying to be clever. We're talking 'charting' here and you can Google Heinken-Ashi for an in depth explanation but essentially it's a variant on Chinese candles. Chinese candles are a way of displaying open, close, high and low prices for a given day/period, A bit like OHLC bars (which I'm assuming you do understand) but more graphically.

Basic difference between Chinese and Heinken-Ashi is that Heinken takes information from the previous candle be it hourly, daily or weekly and modifies the new candle accordingly. (Had to check to make sure that I wasn't selling my explanation short. It's a bit simplified but it's about right). I find them really useful – period. But they can be an early indicator of where the candle for that day is going (and consequently how the chart looks/will look visually, the importance of which you will better understand if you read the link below) especially if your running real time updates (but even 15 minutes delayed is handy). You won't find them here on ADVFN and I have them as part of my Sharescope package. If I knew how to upload my chart I would. But I don't.

So after a series of upward trending blue candles with open bodies (blue being my default colour for positive), this morning saw my MYT chart with a red candle with a filled body (negative and hard to quantify in the short term and, of course, subject to change as the day progresses). It's still present as I post but no worse than earlier. Further, the short term MAs that I use have flattened out some - before they were trending up.

Others who use charts might have cared to engage in a bit of "Don't worry John, MYT does that."

It certainly not the end of the world and if you're in on fundamentals then nothing here has changed. But I trade so it makes a difference to when I choose to buy. I don't often buy shares in a strong uptrend unless I 'know them well'. Not the case here, I prefer to wait for dips and this purchase was an exception and a little ill disciplined.

As I said at the start of this post, I wasn't trying to be clever and I hope this helps you.

Read my post (33 of 15 March) to see where I'm coming from – also you could try:

www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/092204.asp

Heikin-Ashi: A Better Candlestick

[mathisvale] 20/3/2012 11:06

Would you care to explain - that means little to the rest of us. TIA

[johncsimpson] 20/3/2012 09:02

Wobbles a bit doesn't it? Indicators now gone sideways threatening to rollover again and I've got an intraday red Heinken Ashi candle. . .

[matt] 19/3/2012 09:39

I feel the company could do more PR of monthly installation updates, load factor and revenue but then the majority shareholders, the BOD, already know what progress is being made.

[johncsimpson] 19/3/2012 09:15

johncsimpson - 15 Mar'12 - 10:21 - 33 of 36 edit

. . . A bit of checking shows that the number of trades on any given day varies enormously. My charts show the share price has had a good run since early January though my 'preferred indicators' look like they are about to roll over suggesting it's not a good time for me to buy in. I'll monitor until I get a feel for things . . .

My 'preferred indicators' didn't, in fact, roll over and have now continued in the upward direction. So I'm now in with a small buy . . .

[speed camera] 17/3/2012 09:46

Silent progress from Mytrah

[speed camera] 17/3/2012 09:45

Silent progress from Mytrah

[matt] 15/3/2012 23:36

This could work out really well here but keep in mind load factors when looking at capacity if you're making any comparisons to other forms of generation.

[johncsimpson] 15/3/2012 10:21

My first post here but I do post elsewhere on ADVFN.

I trade and use charts so fundamentals come a distant second in most of my calculations but there are all sorts of other things that can affect a share price. I can't bring too much to the party but I follow a number of tip sheets so most of my initial stock selection comes from these. With that in mind I can offer the following from one of them, slightly edited (grammatically but not numbers wise):

. . . We learn this week that Indian wind farm developer, MYTRAH (MYT), already has 140MW of power generation installed and connected to the grid. It also has further projects under way that should take this to 500MW.

A further 110 MW is to be fully installed and connected by the end of March 2012 to take the total to 250MW followed by another 150 MW by the end of May. With 100MW anticipated by the end of June, that will make 500 MW and mean that Mytrah is progressing according to schedule.

With project delays the biggest threat to Mytrah, this evidence of progress is encouraging and no doubt explains why Mytrah's directors have been in the market buying shares recently. Mytrah is aiming to have 5 GW of wind power generating capacity by 2017, making it one of the largest in the country . . . .

A bit of checking shows that the number of trades on any given day varies enormously. My charts show the share price has had a good run since early January though my 'preferred indicators' look like they are about to roll over suggesting it's not a good time for me to buy in. I'll monitor until I get a feel for things . . .

[mathisvale] 13/3/2012 09:53

I am not surprised that the schedule has slipped. From a standing start last year it was always going to be optimistic to get the first 500MW up and connected to the grid by the end of March 2012. However now that they have a bit of construction experience behind them and hard cash arriving on the doorstep, progress should be a little more 'mechanised'.

This is a relatively simple business, compared to other power stations, with fast cheap construction and low running costs. This means high profit margins and very quick payback periods. MYT has a huge advantage as a first mover in wind power, because it is grabbing all the best sites.

If Ravi Kaillas gets anywhere near his plans for the next 5 years, then this company should be generating annual cash of c. £500m. With this kind of income the debt should be paid off pretty quickly. The potential share price and dividends at that stage are staggering. I am not surprised that our chairman is buying all the shares he can - so am I !!!

[matt] 13/3/2012 08:38

In December they gave a schedule of installation which they have slipped a little from. They could have used the schedule to deliver an update at the end of each month and hence raise the profile of the company. Instead the directors have been repeatedly buying and now don't mention the economics of the installations such as current load factors or electricity sales prices. Seems to me the company could be a little more open and timely with updates.

[matt] 13/3/2012 07:11

I'm sure the original plan was 500 by end of March. Then in Dec they said 400 end of March with 500 by June:

December 2011 January 2012 February 2012 March 2012 April - June
2012
-------------- ------------- -------------- ----------- -------------
100MW 140MW 180MW 400MW 500MW
-------------- ------------- -------------- ----------- -------------

Today they forecast 250 by end of March, 400 May and 500 June:

At present, the Company has 140 MW fully installed and connected to the grid.

The Company expects an additional 110 MW to be fully installed and connected by the end of March 2012, totalling 250MW at March 2012, with a further 150 MW installed and connected by May 2012. This will bring the Company's total installed capacity under its original agreement with Suzlon Energy Limited to 400 MW by May 2012, 16 months following the placing of its first purchase orders.

In addition, the Company anticipates the final 100 MW of its initial 500 MW of wind projects to be installed by June 2012, in line with the previously announced schedule.

-----------

Would have been nice to have had details of current load factors and electricity prices.

[speed camera] 05/3/2012 16:27

Shifting at last

[matt] 03/3/2012 16:23

Some drip drip buying by directors but an abscence of an update when fields were forecast to start coming online in Jan and Feb.

Project Location
State
Total Capacity (MW)
Turbine
Commissioning Status
1
Tejva
Rajasthan
42
Suzlon
Commissioned July 2011
2
Mahidad
Gujarat
25.2
Suzlon
Commissioned August 2011
3
Kaladonger
Rajasthan
75.6
Suzlon
Commissioning December 2011 to March 2012
4
Jamanvada
Gujarat
52.5
Suzlon
Commissioning February 2012 to March 2012
5
Hanumanthappa
Karnataka
35.7
Suzlon
Commissioning February to March 2012
6
Sinner
Maharashtra
29.4
Suzlon
Commissioning January 2012 to March 2012
7
Chakala
Maharashtra
39
Suzlon
Commissioning December 2012 to February 2012
8
Gotne
Maharashtra
24
Suzlon
Commissioning February to March 2012
9
Vita
Maharashtra
33.6
Suzlon
Commissioning February to March 2012
10
Vajrakarur
Andhra Pradesh
63
Suzlon
42 MW Commissioning March 2012, 21 MW Commissioning April 2012 to June 2012
11
Burgula
Andhra Pradesh
79.9
Gamesa
Commissioning April 2012 to June 2012

The Board expects to have the approximate cumulative capacity, fully installed and commissioned, as outlined below:
December 2011 100MW
January 2012 140MW
February 2012 180MW
March 2012 400MW
April – June 2012 500MW