Mice Group Share Discussion Threads

[cyberpost] 14/5/2007 10:39

the market i suspect was expecting a lot lot worse. there could be a relief rally on this. all the write offs are largely non cash related. so long as they can maintain or even increase cash flow - meg has a decent change of recovery. also not forget the rns has suggested the will be selling some operations which will bring cash into the business thus helping to reduce the debt.

[besbury] 14/5/2007 10:34

I agree with you, Wiganer. The write-off figures look very bad to my eye, however, I would also like to see an accountants interpretation. I am surprised the share price has not taken another dive this morning. But that goes to show how little I understand about these announcements.

[wiganer] 14/5/2007 10:29

Thanks Bes- I am still tempted by MEG, but I'm not sure my head is up to complex financial analysis right now. What do you make of the write-off figures in the RNS?

[besbury] 14/5/2007 10:26

Morning, Wiganer. Thought you may have dipped your toe in after such an exciting weekend. Well done.

[wiganer] 14/5/2007 10:23

Stock write off c£15m
Fixed asset write off c£6m

That's pretty bad. But as you suggest the market may have been fearing even worse. I'm happy just watching though for the time being.

[taffychaff] 14/5/2007 10:21

looks good for a pop here......bad news not as bad as thought?

[boadicea] 13/5/2007 23:29

guru - There are far too many unknowns for comfort.
Was the latest company progress statement deliberately worded so as to cause maximum and justified alarm or was it just clumsy?
I don't know how the expectation of preliminary results on 17th May has arisen as I have seen no company announcement to that effect. Last year they were issued on the third Wednesday in May which was the 17th. On the same pattern this year they would fall on the 16th but either date seems unlikely imho.
The company normally announce the date in the preceding Trading statement or else a week or two prior and in view of the apparent uncertainty over wip valuation I am fully expecting them to be later than usual as is customarily the case when the figures are bad and the board has to deliberate at length on its excuses or has a battle with its auditors.

Other factors (imho) include suspicion of incompetently or recklessly underpricing estimates in order to secure contracts and the implied admission of inadequate management of forward currency exposure.

I can only hope to be proved wrong.

[guru11] 13/5/2007 22:27

rizzla - thanks for that - will read with interest.

Is all the bad news in the share price, or is there more to come is the question. Did they not make a profit at the first half stage.

Some heavy selling last Friday - thinking there is more bad news to come
while others
are taking a punt.

[rizzzla] 13/5/2007 20:33

results are thursday guru

[g8ta] 13/5/2007 12:41

Mice can't be too cash flow strapped having recently sold Grant Leisure and negotiated a sale and lease back of property for £17m

Banks are supportive (so we're told)

Overstated work value only applies to UK division (which contributes approx 50% of revenue and profit)

Big sells don't inspire, but understandably there's a fair bit of shell shock after the recent fall. Anyway, taken a punt.

[besbury] 13/5/2007 05:35

Besbury - 11 May'07 - 19:44 - 2263 of 2265

Including the 1.95m shares traded on the Plus market, it looks as though 5% of the shares in issue changed hands today, including 3 times 1.6m and a 400k, popping up after hours.

Was this lot part of the "Stock Overhang" referred to in the FT yesterday? See tiny URL below.

[guru11] 13/5/2007 00:34

Are results not out very soon.

Is the buying and selling now speculation or does it has some real substance to the next latest set of results due to come out.

On the face of it Mice looks cheap, although there is a lot of ifs and buts,
and the accounts are not too clear.

[pbracken] 12/5/2007 12:09

De-leveraging is a fancy term for getting the debt down. No more, no less. How you do that, of course, is a different matter. Sale of non-core UK division is the likely option, IMO.

[besbury] 11/5/2007 19:44

catandcrow - 11 May'07 - 19:20 - 2262 of 2262

"company revealed that the value of stock and work in progress had been overstated"

Slight correction required there, catandcrow.

Trading Update

"The Board of MICE Group Plc ("MICE") announces that it is currently reviewing the results of a valuation exercise carried out to confirm the carrying value of stock and work in progress in its UK Division as at 28 February 2007. The results suggest that the value of that stock and work in progress may be overstated."

Including the 1.95m shares traded on the Plus market, it looks as though 5% of the shares in issue changed hands today, including 3 times 1.6m and a 400k, popping up after hours.

[catandcrow] 11/5/2007 19:20

This was written up in the FT Alphaville blog -

NH: Mice Group

NH: small marketing services company that has issued a couple of profits warnings this year

NH: the last one in, which was announced after hours on April 26, was particularly nasty

NH: company revealed that the value of stock and work in progress had been overstated

NH: and that it was in talks with lenders about "de-leveraging" options

PM: de leveraging options! __ what the f is this????

PM:

NH: i presume de-leveraging means emergency rights issue of debt for equity swap.

PM: De-leveraging options!!!!

NH: anyway there was a big seller around yesterday, desperate to get out

NH: offloaded 1.65m shares at just 7p

NH: the word in the market last night was that the shares had been placed easily and that Mice would rally this morning

PM: which it has done?

NH: Yep shares up 0.25p at 8.25p.

NH: However, my spies tell that the stock was not placed, and a market maker is just sitting on it

PM:

PM: That does not sound good

NH: it doesn't

NH: apparently there are not many buyers around for Mice

[rizzzla] 11/5/2007 17:01

Well i must be 1 or the very few showing a profit on here

i will enjoy it while it lasts

[timben] 11/5/2007 12:08

Thanks Boadicea........I get the feeling that the drop is a bit overdone though

[boadicea] 11/5/2007 12:03

Timben - It depends how long-standing the problem is.
If wip is overstated and has been for some time (over 18 months), then any profit deficiency really belongs to an earlier year although it may appear in the year of correction unless the py is restated.
If it's a new problem, that is bad news as it truly affects current profit.
However, in either case, the cash flow is what it is and that is the company's primary problem imo. The company has long suffered from what appeared to be lax credit control. However the problem may rather have been one of premature revenue recognition which could look like the same thing from the outside and be coupled to overstatement of wip values.

Even if the situation is not as dire as some may think (and I have no way of knowing), the loss of credibility and the impression that things are not under control will haunt the company for a few years - assuming it survives in its present form.

[rizzzla] 11/5/2007 11:56

bought a few this morning after watching it fall from 20p

worth 12p easily at this stage

[fadilz] 11/5/2007 11:54

Bear Sterns have added 2m

[substp] 11/5/2007 11:54

That means they've added 2,100,000 shares since Jan 25th

[tibrahim] 11/5/2007 11:53

I'm in at 8.75p & see the offer is up to 9.5

[timben] 11/5/2007 11:40

The company informed the market that works in progress "may" be overstated.
If they are not overstated where does that take us?

[fadilz] 11/5/2007 10:34

I'm gambling that (a) Mice will not go bust, and (b) confirmation of that fact alone will double the share price - quickly.

I've added a small amount at 8.2p. Someone else appears to have offloaded 1m shares at 8p. Bloody and painful for all involved.