Mice Group Share Discussion Threads

[fadilz] 08/3/2007 13:28

Mice pre close statement due next week?

[boadicea] 06/3/2007 14:53

... p e r verse?

[wiganer] 06/3/2007 14:00

a wa do dem a wa do dem dem dem
a me nuh know - a me nuh know -
me seh me love her fi mi virgin girl
gung ho, me really love her so

me love fe see her wey she walk and pose
fancy rose to match her clothes
gung ho, fi mi virgin girl

me love fe see her when her hair fulla curl
anywhere she go people love her in the world
she don' worship diamond, she don' worship pearl
gung ho, fi mi virgin girl

a wa do dem a wa do dem dem dem
a me nuh know - a me nuh know -
(scatting)

de two a we a walk an' de two a we a talk
she a wear rose an' a me a wear black
we hug up an' pass in a sun shade glass
an' little after that we gaan a Kingston Park, ey

whole heap a people jus' a start to laugh
she too short an' a me too tall
she too short an' a me too tall, ey
a wa do dem......

we tek a walk for a Kingston mall
whole heap a people jus' a start to laugh
because a she too short an' a me too tall
she too short an' a me too tall, ey
a wa do dem......

[verger] 06/3/2007 13:48

Nice rise; steady climb to 27p?

[scburbs] 04/3/2007 15:03

erstwhile2, You are quite rightly describing the historical m.o of PE. Things are changing in the P.E world and it no longer solely goes in for regearing lowly geared companies and taking back out their acquisition funding. The PE market is much more competitive and the early easy wins of this type have gone already.

So the easy wins have gone, but the PE funds have more and more money still seeking returns of 15-20% p.a. This is why they are hitting the press more and more because they are moving beyond their historical m.o. and into a wide variety of businesses where their target 15-20+% IRR's can be met. The potential IRR is the key driver for them as the ability to simply regear to make 15-20% IRR has largely gone.

Whilst MEG probably isn't an ideal candidate for PE it is cheap and has assets that can be sold off to finance part of the initial cost.

Ultimately PE will look at the earnings yield of the target and the cost of debt to secure the company. If PE can return MEG's earnings to 4.66p and for ease of numbers lets say the takeover price is 46.6p then MEG's takeout P/E is 10 and an earnings yield of 10%.

Based on 177m shares the acquisition price would be c.£83m. A PE fund might borrow 80% of that at say 6%. This leaves there equity requirement at c.£17m for a business that would return £8.3m p.a. (based on the above numbers, this is not a forecast it is an illustration based on an earnings yield of 10%). Of that £8.3m, £4m would go to servicing the PE funds new debt. This leaves £4.3m return on £17m equity or 25% p.a. This is well within the sort of return acceptable to a PE fund.

The reason MEG doesn't fit squarely in the PE model is that it doesn't have working capital under control and profits and cashflow do not currently match. Also the lack of forward visibility as illustrated by the recent TS would also be a problem for PE. However, the relative ease in which a 25% p.a. return could be forecast indicates that PE may well want to closely look at MEG and whether those particularly problems can be resolved. So IMO the truth in relation to the PE potential for MEG lies somewhere between the views expressed above.

I agree with erstwhile2 that the current main drawback is the lack of predictable free cash flow, but PE may consider they can solve that with better working capital management. In truth they are probably a better fit with a competitor (certainly not for them to buy a competitor though!!!) to spread central costs over a larger volume of business to improve margins.

[boadicea] 02/3/2007 10:24

erst - I don't think that comment is totally applicable. All you are saying is that Private equity goes in for gearing. Yes - and this company has it already so they get it cheap instead. The only question they would need to answer is whether they could manage it better.
However, I agree to the extent that the company is more likely to go to a cash-rich competitor.

[verger] 02/3/2007 08:56

I hear a voice from the City saying, 'Come on you little shareholders, sell up to us big guys, and then we will make a handsome profit buy organising a takeover by some private equity firm.'

[besbury] 01/3/2007 16:05

A nice 300k X @ the mid. I guess this maybe one of the institutional buyers again? One home to another.

I noticed yesterday the bid dropped to 21p during the worst of the carnage, however, those crafty rascals quickly returned it to it's open figure when the market turned up.

[besbury] 27/2/2007 15:32

I guessed that, boadicea. Not doing too bad in this dreadful market today, are they!

[boadicea] 27/2/2007 15:28

Besbury - My comment was not meant as a prediction - hence the (!) - Just being ironical, i.e. anyone wanting to make an offer might not be entirely averse to something that lowers the share price

[thistimenextyear] 27/2/2007 07:48

Besbury >>> Lets hope so

I sold half my holding at approx 35p on 22nd Nov (for a modest profit), and have left other half running (which currently is showing a loss naturally). Opened up a small spreadbet as well at 23p last week.

[besbury] 26/2/2007 23:17

With the last forecast of: "At least £6m, down from £9m" I will be very surprised and disappointed if there is another profits warning in the near future.

[boadicea] 26/2/2007 22:54

On the basis of the last recorded announcement from the following institutions (which should represent their approximate current holdings) we now have:
AXA >15%
HSBC >14%
Barclays >11%
F&C >7%
GAM >7%
Artemis >3%
Bear Sterns >3%

The holding in each case should be within 1% upwards of those figures (but the rules are not always followed.)
Such a concentration of holdings illustrates how easy it could be to secure a takeover at the right price. All the soundings on pricing an offer could be made cheaply and privately with a mere 5 parties to be assured of success. For the best bargain (lowest) price it could be timed to follow immediately after the next profit disappointment!

[besbury] 26/2/2007 22:47

I know it is risky, TTNY, but I will continue to hold 120k. It could get really exciting, possibly later this month?

Edit: Next month?

[thistimenextyear] 26/2/2007 22:42

Besbury >>> Yes, it certainly does look like the institutions continue to be aquiring.

[besbury] 26/2/2007 22:21

Mice Holding(s) in Company


RNS Number:8504R
Mice Group PLC
26 February 2007


MICE Group Plc ("the Company")


Holding in Company


MICE Group Plc, the international marketing services group, has recently been
advised Barclays PLC on behalf of the shareholders detailed below that it has an
interest in 20,240,403 ordinary shares of 4p each in the Company representing
11.42% of the issued share capital of the Company.


Shareholders


Barclays Capital Securities Ltd

Barclays Global Investors Ltd

Barclays Life Assurance Co Ltd

Barclays Stockbrokers Ltd

Gerrard Ltd


26 February 2007

Don't remember seeing a Barclays Holding notice in MEG before! Looks likely that a number of PIs are heading for the exit; and the institutions are picking them up cheap?

[besbury] 21/2/2007 18:09

You may well be right, fadilz. If you are, we should see another Holding Notice re:- HSBC in the near future.

[fadilz] 21/2/2007 18:02

Besbury, the numbers don't quite stack up, but here's a theory:
- today's 1.9m represents the last of the HSBC selloff (if it is they...),
- the drift down from 26p was driven by HSBC trying to find a buyer for their stake

If the overhang is now cleared, perhaps we'll see a recovery to 26.

[besbury] 21/2/2007 14:32

Another largish "B" trade of 1,933.896 @23p.

[besbury] 21/2/2007 14:23

Thanks,QALBABBASS.

I see this article was published at 1:57pm on Thursday 25th January 2007. Hopefully the discussions have reached an advanced stage by now.

[fadilz] 21/2/2007 12:47

Recent acquisitions have been:
Bear Sterns 25/01/2007 5,050,000
Artemis Investment Management 07/02/2007 6,645,835
F & C Asset Management 21/02/2007 13,573,592

The only ones with holdings big enough to supply that (AFAIK) are:
HSBC 10/10/2006 26,574,957
AXA Investment Managers 23/01/2007 27,622,752

I guess HSBC are the sellers (since AXA topped up after the profits warning), and this would leave them with 1.3m shares - unless I've missed an RNS. Hopefully, this has already been disposed of to other buyers, leaving us without that particular overhang.