Metals Exploration Share Discussion Threads

[blueclyde] 21/1/2017 12:57

I think they were busy as they went through at the time the share price rose in the morning.I wouldn't read anything into the current level of buys or sells. This company is so far off the radar that the volume is a fraction of what it should be. Wait to the write up in the Investors Chronical or tipped in the national newspapers which will happen if they can achieve the stated output and watch what happens then. I don't think anyone really knows about this company hence the opportunity.

[peterpowell21] 21/1/2017 11:40

blueclyde

well i would say once the shares that are being sold and rebought have finished we will see a steady increase in the share price if we get a RNS saying all is fine and now at designed production level i see no reason why we should not have (as you say) a market cap of £300m or 15p.
with all the shares that look like are being bought and sold at 5p its hard to see what amount has been bought or sold.
i have been taking it that all those at 5p have been buys. but thinking about it some must have been sells as we have not seen any large sells for less than 5p going through.But with the volume over the last week the seller could be close to finished
if not finished now.

[blueclyde] 21/1/2017 10:59

29th of November there was an RNS saying production was ramping up soundly so hopefully we get an RNS at any day confirming that production is at the designed level which has this on course to be doing 100k oz a year.If and when that is the case I believe it will quickly move to 15-20p a share giving a market cap of 300 to 400 million the current market cap of 100 million is a gift if they are indeed on course to achieve this target.I don't see how it can be any less than 15p a share once confirmation of ramp up of production is confirmed hence why I have been adding to my position as I believe that once news is released it will gap up to 10p plus on the open.

[peterpowell21] 20/1/2017 17:38

another 14m of buys showing as sells.
they may be selling the lot.

[peterpowell21] 20/1/2017 14:22

Without a doubt this selling and buying has been orchestrated.
its not like when a PI sells a few,they can soak them up and move them on without much need to move the share price But when you have millions to off load that is very different. they could trash the share price trying to sell that amount.
imagine if you were MTL (Luxembourg) or runruno holdings, holding about 66% of the shares between them. they would not want the value of there holding reduced in such a way. they may have an agreement that they sell to the big holders first, or they try to sell them to another party, that is willing to take most if not all the stock
they are going to sell.
If it is baker steel selling, and i would say it is,they held 137,875,609 or 6.7% after their last notification.I would guess there has been around 70m sold that would leave baker steel holding around 68m or about 3%.
we will find out sooner or later.

[jailbird] 20/1/2017 14:05

Can see this jump up and down until overhung has cleared

[lord badger] 20/1/2017 13:13

Achilles, don't forget, redemptions forcing Baker Steel to off load is an assumption. There are other factors that possibly indicate that redemptions are not the cause; at least some of their stock is held in a Natural Resources fund - they don't appear to have a pure gold fund, this was spun out to Ruffer - and its gold funds that have been suffering a run of redemptions not necessarily Natural Resources funds - perhaps someone could comment on the latter. So there could be other reasons at play. A large chunk of the stock held by Baker Steel came from one single source i.e. one single client, although as an owner of the wrapper fund, if the large single client did redeem, it would be down to the fund manager which stocks to off-load, not the client. There is also the issue of what type of funds the MTL stock is held in and whether redemptions would force an immediate sale of stock.

The level of recent buying does indicate an institutional buyer of some description and we do now have a number of smaller iis on board who could be topping up. Also, there's a fair chance that the new broker brought a swathe of new private clients to the table and some of these could be quite large - no doubt the new broker has been hitting the phones for at least a few weeks, perhaps more. There are also a fair number of people who have been sitting on the side lines for ages, waiting for the right moment to jump in / jump back in. I know a few who did and given where we are at the moment with regards nearing full production, the timing appears, on the face of it, just right.

My gut feeling is that this last week was planned and well orchestrated and there's nothing wrong with that. The last time Baker Steel off loaded a large chunk of stock - April 2015 35m shares at around 4p - the process was orchestrated. Ruffer picked up 20m of the 35m. This was at the same time the Ruffer Baker Steel Gold Fund was spun out as the Ruffer Gold Fund.

[peterpowell21] 20/1/2017 11:40

well we have not had many of the sells come through yet to cover all the buying.
again today they are showing buys as sells.
it was 4.92p to sell now its 5p.
i would say there are about 50m worth of sells still to show.
we should get a holding RNS when its finally all finished.
it never hurts to have more big holders.spread the shares about.

[achillesheel] 20/1/2017 11:37

You've missed all the excitement;

Here's a summary which may be about right

Baker have been selling as suffering from redemptions in the trust
Ned bought a chunk £250K, the rest has been scooped up by someone maybe an ii,
Pi's have been buying the loose stock
Nomad has been replaced

[lord badger] 20/1/2017 10:49

Giant, scan the posts on here for the past week or so and you should get back up to speed.

[giantpeach2] 20/1/2017 10:40

Ok cheers for that, just got back from hols so not upto speed yet.

[lord badger] 20/1/2017 10:01

Giant, take a look at the past week's volume. Approx 70m shares traded. Today was a slow day! No press, no news.

[davegk] 20/1/2017 09:58

All week until now it has been Cantor which has provided the offer price in the market. If you bought shares you have bought them off Cantor. Cantor’s bid price has been below the market price so they have not been buying in the market.

Now with the market price at 5.0 / 5.25, the Cantor offer price is above the market but they are the active bid at 5.0. So they are now buying in the market at 5p but not selling.
Maybe we’ve reached the end of the overhang.

[giantpeach2] 20/1/2017 09:33

All buys fron the kick off, was this highlighted in a magazine this morning!

[peterpowell21] 19/1/2017 15:12

achille

i agree they have managed to buy some shares of late at 5p and less.
but as you say,they have paid a lot more for most of their shares.
thats why i say they are daft selling now.
but its seems its out of their hands.
well its going to be a long slog for them and the other large holders to break even
from this point.

again it seems like if you get in early on a project the chances are you will lose money. best getting in now at 5p, you dont need to be a brain surgeon to think you must have a good chance of making money buying in now at 5p, when most of the shares
have been bought by the large holders at around 13p.
risk reward seems well worth it at this point.

[achillesheel] 19/1/2017 13:41

It's a bit different for Baker though, over 100million of their holding was purchased at 13p and above, and they are suffering from redemptions from the trust so don't really have a choice in the matter.

[peterpowell21] 19/1/2017 13:40

jailbird

well i doubt they worry about CGT.
Anyway they have till april to worry about that.
so we will have to see who is right.

Daft or not daft,that is the daft question.

[jailbird] 19/1/2017 13:11

I think they are not daft...Lost count the number of times a large holder sells before a rise.Large investor holders 25 million bought at 3p, selling at 5p.. profit made.But these holders are known to slice holdings to derisk , esp when there are buyers ready to take large stock We must not forget these ppl also must offset against CGT

[peterpowell21] 19/1/2017 11:46

well if they are daft enough to sell at 5p after waiting all this time thats their loss.
But its never there money is it.
well its been a great result for anyone that wanted to average down or buy in at a great price.
seems we have returned to normal volume.
could it just be a case of waiting for those sells to show up now to cover all those
buys that have been showing over the last week.

[achillesheel] 19/1/2017 10:26

Baker took 7 million at the the 3 pence placing and 16 million at the 2.9,they must still have a much higher average with a holding of somewhere around 117 million (now) as the previous fundraisings were much higher, and being forced to sell at this time, can't imagine them being happy.

[peterpowell21] 19/1/2017 08:13

achille

who ever is buying baker steels shares must have agreed to pay 5p.
makes sense as that amount of shares being sold would have dropped the price to 4p or less.They both get what they want.
apart from that they are making good money at 5p.

[achillesheel] 18/1/2017 18:51

It's as if the broker has been told the share price is not to rise above 5 until its done maybe the ii wanted to take more in the placing but could'nt for whatever reason, and i suppose if they are making 0.05 on 20 odd million they won't be grumbling.

[achillesheel] 18/1/2017 18:39

Yep look at the delayed trades 12million got to be an ii soaking up the seller

[peterpowell21] 18/1/2017 17:57

volume has been promoted into the premier league today.
this is normally in the sunday league of volume.
they seem to have stepped up the pace to shift this overhang.
we cant be far from getting news now.

[peterpowell21] 18/1/2017 15:13

seems the seller has not finish and they only want buys so they can clear the seller.