Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[chipperfrd] 17/11/2016 12:36

In summary, I calculate the premiums in India to be as follows relative to the LBMA:

Gold = 18% (US$1,446/oz)
Silver = 11% (US$18.93/oz)

[conundrum] 17/11/2016 11:58

Another article on the currency situation in India

See link below

[nielsc] 17/11/2016 08:00

What does bitcoin say?

Bitcoin in Rupees 60000 = $884

Bitcoin in us dollars $748

Definitely an issue exchanging money otherwise this huge arbitrage would have been narrowed down somewhat.

Cheers,
Niels

[nielsc] 17/11/2016 07:47

stevea,

The quoted price in Delhi is now $1445 for a troy oz. Going by your posts it sounds like there is a bit of a supply problem.

I see the main stream media is making very little of the huge problems occurring in India which is predominantly a cash based society preferring to focus on "black cash" and the crackdown on illegal businesses.

...never mind the poor people that have been saving for a rainy day. Should of had gold!


Cheers,
Niels

[nielsc] 16/11/2016 23:08

Stevea,It's just the sheer number of people this is effecting. Not particularly well thought out!Cheers,Niels

[nielsc] 16/11/2016 21:43

... and that was for 22 carat gold!

[nielsc] 16/11/2016 21:17

Chipperfrd,Looks like things are unravelling in India after this crazy banknote ban. A oz of gold is costing $1340 by my reckoning. Even after paying 10% import duty there is money to be made.Definitely a case of unintended consequences.Cheers,Niels

[chipperfrd] 16/11/2016 16:23

I am of the opinion that the recent downwards price movements of the PMs is directly due to the high levels of Open Interest on the COMEX December contracts.

It is looking increasingly difficult to see how 773 tonnes of gold and 13,772 tonnes of silver, still standing for delivery, can be sufficiently reduced by the 90% odd required within 11 trading days, in order for them to be met from the registered vaulted metal on that exchange.

Last year they had the same high levels of derivatives leading up to the December contract expiry but smashed prices down enough to force massive long closures. This year however, the SGE sits there providing ever expanding arbitrage premiums to mute the efforts of the paper sellers. I guess we shall see how it plays out over the next two weeks.

Interesting times indeed Niels!!
Chip

[atlantic57] 16/11/2016 15:37

Nielc i must admit to be struggling to make sense of what is happening.

because i did not want large amounts of cash lying around i purchased
a large slug of National grid just before the election.

A nice safe boring utility which is about to make a one off payment to shareholders
estimated by some at 70 pence a share in the spring and pays and inflation linked dividend.

It is current down by around 15%....

[roguetreader] 16/11/2016 15:05

I see Ruffer now have 20 million shares, up from 17.8 million. Looks like they still have a fair bit of confidence in MML at these prices.
RT

[nielsc] 16/11/2016 14:43

Are the current stock market rallies being caused by the flight of money from the bond markets?

Given that PE ratios are at pretty high levels already this looks like the final blow off before a correction of some sort.
Money exiting stock markets will go into cash initially, but I would expect some of it to go into precious metals as a form of security. As atlantic has just said, being heavy in cash isn't that safe anymore.

We live in interesting times!

Cheers,
Niels

[atlantic57] 16/11/2016 07:07

Justin you have made a good call.My concern about being heavily in cash is that I have
Been concerned for a number of years about a banking crash and my own cash vanishing .

It is very difficult to predict where markets are going.If Trump enacts the statements
He made during the election then we can make some judgements.

The failure of central bankers to deal with the underlying issues that caused the 2008
Financial crisis must explode at some point.The Piper must be paid.However so called experts have proved to be clueless.

[justinjjbuk] 16/11/2016 01:24

atlantic

I was completely in cash going into the election, then I went long as election night progressed and I realised Trump was going to win.

I believed it would be a replay of the Brexit night, which became the most profitable day of the year for me. In other words, along with almost everyone else, I miscalled the impact of a Trump victory on gold.

Anyway, to cut a long story short, when I realised that Mr Market was entering one of his barking mad phases and I was reading the market psychology completely wrongly, I went back 100% cash.

At this stage, I have no inclination to go back in to my favourite names. It's impossible to stock pick in a market so dominated by the top-down macro news. For the time being, the market appears to think that Trump means fiscal pump-priming, faster inflation and more hikes by the Fed. So equities up, and bonds and gold down.

But I think sentiment could turn on a dime. Technology, just as much as globalisation, has been behind the deflationary environment of the last decade or so, and Trump can't do much about that. And if he really goes after globalisation, then that could set off a trade war and slower growth. And if interest rates spike, I think the equity market, which is absurdly valued, could fall over. So getting the policy prescription right will be like walking through a mine field. And given Trump is not noted for his light-footed approach to policy, I could easily see him treading on a land mine and helping to put the US back into recession. But I may be wrong here.

The good thing about the investment game for a retail investor is that you aren't always forced to play every hand. When I was a professional fund manager, I couldn't go 100% cash. Now, at a time when I haven't a clue which way gold will go, I have the luxury of stepping away from the table for a month or two until I can see what kind of policies Trump comes up with and how gold reacts.

With all the volatility around at the minute, my goal is purely to live to fight another day.

Justin

[ilostthelot] 14/11/2016 15:15

Gold firmly in the cartels grip again.

[atlantic57] 11/11/2016 17:29

Justin I hope you have done well with the opportunity that Trumps election
Cas caused.Every expert in the run up to this event that I read stated that if
Trump won gold would rocket.

Well I guess it did for a few brief hours before plunging.

I'm seriously wondering now whether gold will have the bull run that so many
Of us we're confident of these last 5 years.

[deka1] 11/11/2016 16:53

gold now down $110 /oz from the high of three days ago, must have been more than 100t of non existent gold sold.

[chipperfrd] 10/11/2016 13:46

Justin,

Time will tell with Trump.

Personally, if he manages to lower the current Cold War threat, it will be enough for me!

Clinton was likely to raise the threat of a superpower military clash so I am very thankful that she has lost.

Chip

[nielsc] 09/11/2016 23:42

Justin,I haven't checked, but I think there was a huge dump of gold to bring the price back down. Will see next Friday. I thing an $18 spread between Comex and the sge.Cheers,Niels

[justinjjbuk] 09/11/2016 18:11

Chip

Well you were right and I was wrong:) But the world appears upside down at the minute. Gold selling off on a Trump victory! Strange times, strange times.

Justin

[roguetreader] 09/11/2016 15:02

Steve
Agree re the gold breaking to the up, as ever the question is when. Looks like today's bounce following Trump election may be just that a bounce and back to where it started. I think Yellen is definitely on borrowed time, but getting rid of the Fed may be a different story. I think Trump is going to have problems delivering on quite a few of his 'promises'. Interesting times ahead and I do think the election of Trump is going to contribute to a black swan event that see's gold move UP sooner rather than later.
RT

[stevea171] 09/11/2016 12:51

RT. Yes, maybe having a new mega institution with a 5% stake will provide some respite.
Also gold likely to break upwards now after this period of range trading engineered by the Fed.
Back to $2000 in first half of next year?

One of Trump's first actions should be to sack Janet Yellen which he has indicated he is likely to do ....
Soon after to abolish the Fed!

[roguetreader] 09/11/2016 10:57

Steve
Cheers re the UBS flag, interesting.
RT