Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[ilostthelot] 07/9/2016 09:09

Thanks Tightfist. Yes the longer they hold off spending $50M the better. They've got to start showing ,the market ,the money!!

The extra 300tpd from the new E15 shaft is helpful. Maybe worth asking if they could potentially lift more ore through that shaft.. I'm not sure the size of it in comparison to the L8 one in use just now but to me 300 TPD , while it is positive,seems like an under promise over deliver tactic .Fair play if that's the case ,they should be cautious.

[noirua] 07/9/2016 02:20

BETTER PRODUCTION OUTLOOK FOR MEDUSA MINING - 6th September 2016


Added some more stock on outlook.

[tightfist] 06/9/2016 10:50

ILTL,

Thanks for the queries. Regarding AISC at increasing depth, I think there is some evidence that grades will improve at depth so maybe it's not a concern? RG used to use two analogous mines which demonstrated that trend; I havnt looked back recently at the MML drilling results but IIRC there were some good grades; wait and see what they report later this month?
The real confirmation we need is that the $50m L16 shaft is way away in the distance - and we should have a plentiful stream of dividends.......


Chip,

Thanks for decoding the TSF#5. The prospects of skipping 300tpd direct to surface up E15 looks positive; I never did understand why E15 was "men and materials" only - maybe the redesign to go deeper to L10 enabled higher capacity winders, etc?

Cheers, tightfist

[chipperfrd] 06/9/2016 09:39

Tightfist

TSF5 is Tailings Storage Facility #5. This covers their future production for a good few years.

re the 300tpd skip capacity for the E15 shaft, I cannot remember seeing that mentioned before.

[ilostthelot] 05/9/2016 22:35

Hi tightfist . I'd like to know the projected breakdow of this year's quarterly number's. They told us its going to be back loaded this year, so any additional info on that would be good.

What they see AISC long term to be?
For me the $800 AISC may only be possible for a year or 2 before they need to develop deeper..
Thanks

Regards

[sparkey_two] 05/9/2016 19:14

Thanks Atlantic/tightfist, looks like I can restart the process of trying to transfer the shares from Halifax. I gave up last time as Halifax and TD kept blaming each other for it not happening and we were going round in circles.

I have done well with the likes of CEY and AAZ, buying a house so Needing to sell some; would be nice to wipe out some of my losses on MML. How I wish I wasn't so greedy when they were £5.73, I think we all thought then they would continue to rise strongly back then!

At least I tried to learn with CEY as I sold a big chunk of them when they hit £1.30 only for them to shoot up to £1.80 😀, you can't win.

[atlantic57] 05/9/2016 18:24

Thank you for sharing Blue,
I have to be a lot more cautious these days.
Regards

[bluelynx] 05/9/2016 17:43

Atlantic

I still have a small amount of MML, I previously had a holding that was over twice that of my next largest gold mining Share. Given my lack of confidence in the Management I really could not justify such a large holding. Now MML is only a third of my average holding.

It must be less nerve-racking holding less risky investments, a sensible move, myself I still hold only PM Stocks but after a quite good run since January I have a large percentage of Cash.

Good luck with your present investment strategy.

BL

[atlantic57] 05/9/2016 16:34

Hello blue no I am not a holder any more of Mml.
I have been wrong for a number of years on gold and the collapse of the bond market.
However I still believe that gold will have a strong run and the bond market will implode.

However in 2009 I was very confidant that medusa would be a beneficiary.
Today I am looking for more solid grounds to base an investment decision.

Are you a holder.?

[tightfist] 05/9/2016 16:32

Hi Chip, speedsgh,

Thanks for the pre-view of Thursday's presentation; I see it's at 7.30pm which clarifies things. I will write some feedback afterwards - I believe stevea is attending, Justin too?

There is some new terminology, or maybe I am being thick.... TSF#5 - what is that? - is it the latest consultants review? And I want to understand more about "Skipping Capacity" on slide 12. I believe this is the first reference/commitment to ore haulage up the E15 Service Shaft - but there is no mention of the deepening of the Agsao shaft to Level 8 which was announced four weeks ago in the Q4 results.

I hope that the reference to "No major investments required for current Life of Mine Plan" applies to the Mine as well as the Mill - that suggests that the expensive L16 shaft has been kicked into the long grass?

I cannot see follow-through on Boyd's reference (reported from Kalgoorlie by MNN) to 130,000 Oz/$800 AISC anywhere; we seem to be offered some pieces of info to generate our own projections - or is that unduly harsh?


If you post any queries I will try to get a response. Cheers, tightfist

[bluelynx] 05/9/2016 16:05

Hi altlantic

Are you still a holder of MML.

[atlantic57] 05/9/2016 15:15

Tightfist yes a good idea and in due course perhaps transfer shares..

[tightfist] 05/9/2016 14:51

I agree with Atlantic. An option so as to not be out of the market would be to ask your spouse to buy some simultaneously; if you have a spouse with an ASX tradable account, of course!

Check with your accountant.....

[atlantic57] 05/9/2016 13:00

Sparky 2 depending on the size of your loss you could consider selling and buying back more than 30 days after the sale.

This would crystallise the loss but of course you could got dealing costs and price movement.

Check with your accountant.

[chipperfrd] 05/9/2016 10:34

Thanks Speedsgh. Some useful data there. Interesting that they mention 300tpd skip capacity for L15.

Not much time to go through in any depth today. Will have to save that up for next weekend.

I had planned to go to the Thursday presentation in London but now find that I have to be away. I would be obliged if any attendees could provide feedback.

Thank you.
Chip

[speedsgh] 05/9/2016 09:53

Investor Presentation September 2016 -

[speedsgh] 05/9/2016 09:52

Update on recent Seismic Activity in the Philippines -

[sparkey_two] 04/9/2016 23:24

Thanks Atlantic, waiting for my accountant to come back but I suspect you are right given I still own the shares.

[atlantic57] 04/9/2016 20:55

Sparkly in my opinion transferring brokers does not create a capital gains tax loss.
You would need to sell the shares I believe. However if you want certainty you need to contact Hmrc.

[sparkey_two] 04/9/2016 20:10

Hi guys, hoping someone can help with a query.

I have a good number of MML shares still registered with the Halifax here in the UK. I need to get them transferred across to a broker that trade Oz shares.

Currently my shares are showing a loss, if I transfer broker would that be considered a sale and therefore I could claim the CGT loss at that point or does the price carry over and the CGT loss would be registered when I do finally sell.

Reason I ask is I have good profits elsewhere and it would suit me to transfer them this tax year if it would wipe out some tax.

Thanks.

[ilostthelot] 02/9/2016 09:05

That was a nice rebound!

[roguetreader] 30/8/2016 11:34

Steady progress, no real surprises over June quarterly report, ongoing patience required. Now waiting resource update and Boyd's update in September.

[stevea171] 30/8/2016 10:43

Medusa makes profit, seeking improvements
Michael Quinn 30 Aug 2016

MEDUSA Mining has forecast another modest operational year at its Co-O gold operation in the Philippines after recording a “statutory after tax profit” of $US44 million last financial year.

That profit came on the back of production of 108,529 ounces at all-in-sustaining-costs (AISC) of $999 per ounce, with 105-115,000oz forecast to be produced in the current 2017 year at AISC of between $1000 and $1100/oz.

Medusa suggested that output in the current year would be back end loaded.

It also suggested better days were ahead.

“The Co-O mine remains hoist capacity constrained until the E15 Service Shaft is completed by June 2017,” the company said.

“Once completed the Service Shaft will take over 100% of manpower and materials movement, freeing up the L8 Production Shaft to be a 100% dedicated skipping shaft.

“For the next quarter the mine ventilation upgrade and mine dewatering project will be close to completion.

“Once completed we will start seeing a reduction in the sustaining capital project cost component of the AISC’s, mostly driven by the Service Shaft completion in June 2017.”

Earlier this month new Medusa CEO Boyd Timler indicated to MNN that the Co-O operation has the future potential to be a sustainable circa-130,000oz per annum producer with AISC in the order of $800/oz

For while Medusa has a processing plant with capacity of about 900,000tpa, tonnes milled last year totalled less than 600,000t.

Shares in Medusa were up 4% to A65.5c in midday trade, capitalising the company at $136 million.

The stock started 2016 trading at about half current levels.

hxxp://www.miningnews.net/markets/profit-loss/medusa-makes-profit-seeking-improvements/?utm_medium=email&adfesuccess=0

[chipperfrd] 30/8/2016 10:00

I note that GD closed out of all his remaining holdings during the year.
MML have taken on a further bank loan of c. US$1.5m.
Otherwise it was relatively static compared to 2015 - once 2015 numbers were adjusted for the non-cash impairment.

Average PoG at US$1,173/oz reflects the low gold price over 2Q and early 3Q so Sales improvement over 2015 was muted.

FCF was only US$0.6m and reflects the ongoing inward investment on the Service shaft and other mine improvements.

EPS improved slightly and implies a P/E of 2.3x.

Balance sheet improved with Net Assets now at US$234.3m (FY2015 US$192m).
Working Capital improved to US$40.6m from US$32.4m.
Altman score = 4.4 (ie financially safe)
Current Ratio = 3 (was 2.6)
PBV = 0.43 (0.69)
PSR = 0.78 (1.07)
RoC = 19% (21%)
RoE = 19% (22%)
Earnings Yield = 47% (32%)
ROTA = 18% (19%)

Gross margin = 42.4% (41.6%)
Op margin = 37.2% (34.7%)
Pre-Tax margin = 35.39% (33.1%)
Net Profit margin = 34.2% (33.7%)
Sales Growth = 4% (46.3%)

EBITDA = US$69.4m (US$72.5m)

Using my valuation method there has been relatively little change over FY16 but I await the new Reserve/Resource report as that does form part of my valuation estimation. On the assumption that they will have replaced most/all of FY2016 depletion through additions to their Reserve base I consider them under-valued and retain all my holdings.
Chip

[jfishy55] 30/8/2016 09:12

Here's the link: