Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[chapv] 28/6/2016 10:46

well if you believe England are going to win a game in any tournament you can believe anything!

[atlantic57] 28/6/2016 09:40

Chip fair point

[chipperfrd] 28/6/2016 08:49

Atlantic,

I think we need to be rational. Quite how anyone could consider a BOD with very small personal holdings could take a company with a MktCap of US$103m private is beyond me.

[ilostthelot] 28/6/2016 08:43

I'd expect a guidance target for next year at some point soon given the full year starts soon.
I agree they need to hit the revised target of 108k to begin to restore confidence. The Share price is telling me that it might not be hit! Or maybe it's down , while gold is high, because of the political risk.

[atlantic57] 28/6/2016 06:07

Polaris are you still a holder of Mml.if there is a concern that the company is going private this would be
A serious enough matter.

[polaris] 27/6/2016 10:10

Gold is well over $1300 and MML can't even break back into the 70s. There is a clear mistrust of the board, once again, and that all forecasts are not to be taken seriously. Let's see what they come up with the actual FY figures. If they miss that 108k oz lowered production guidance then any little remaining confidence will be blown. Maybe this is what the directors want so they can take the company private...

[chipperfrd] 27/6/2016 09:10

Meanwhile, according to last Tuesday's COT report, Gold open interest is 1,778 tonnes and Silver is 31,977 tonnes - ie more than a year's production.

The banks are net short 971 tonnes of gold (yet another record high!) and there are still 48.02 tonnes of gold standing for June delivery against an alleged 53.4 tonnes held as Registered. Things are certainly not working in accordance with the banks usual playbook :-)

Since last Tuesday there has, of course, been quite a significant rise in gold and, no doubt, even more naked short contracts have had to be issued to cap the rise. So tomorrow's COT report should eventually show yet more extreme levels. Who knows, perhaps someone will blink and the banks may even have to start to short close - on second thoughts, that would be far too satisfying!!
Chip

[ilostthelot] 27/6/2016 08:39

This is frustrating holding this when all other gold miners are flying this is going no where.

[ilostthelot] 23/6/2016 14:44

Yeah she is right fair play to her.If I lived there I'd be more than happy.Meduasa has always been good the community it serves. Hopefully that will continue. Thanks for your reply.

[stevea171] 23/6/2016 14:35

Iltl. I have been researching it the past few days and consider it to be highly significant for Medusa but have not sold any more. I have been a holder for some years and wanted to ride the wave of gold price escalation and rebound in fortunes of the company. Unfortunately both have gone south in this time and like many others here I've had no joy.

The new CEO said he would be looking at opportunities outside of The Philippines so maybe he had a foretaste of what was coming.

A year ago RG said he saw no need to look for acquisitions as with other gold miners, with prospects the like of Bananghilig and Guinhalinan part of the Medusa portfolio. But now things are very different the way Guinhalinan has turned out and this new Government. At that time RG said that Guinhalinan could overtake Bananghilig for development if they obtained good drilling results (but these have turned out to be a disappointment) because it did not have the land occupation issues that Bananghilig had.

This has been a sore point with a number of projects on different islands in The Philipinnes and has led to long term confrontation between the mine owners and their fenced off mines and the local population.

Any prospect of a possible new stand off on Mindanao over Bananghilig would not be remotely considered by this new administration as well as having a different philosophy. eg Gina Lopez wants to clean up areas polluted by mining and promote eco tourism which she sees as being better for the environment and better for lifting rural populations out of poverty. Who's to say she is not right?

[ilostthelot] 23/6/2016 13:49

Have you sold on the back of this Steve?

The current nine is undervalued on its own I'm going to continue to hold for another few years and see how it pans out

[stevea171] 23/6/2016 10:21

The new Philippines government takes office in 1 week on 30/6. It has a 6 year term of office until 2022.

[stevea171] 22/6/2016 15:51

Gina Lopez - newly appointed Minister of the Department of Environment and Natural Resources in the new Philippines government lead by Rodrigo Duterte:

"My stand is, in an island ecosystem, whether large scale or small scale mining is grossly irresponsible."

As head of a Dept incl Mines, as a committed environmentalist and activist, as a family member of the huge media and business conglomerate Lopez Holding Corporation, from all that she has said and done over many years there will be no approval for development of Bananghilig or coal. Nunca .... nada .... nunca.

No if's, buts, or maybes. You can take that to the Bank!

Under this government the value to MML of Bananghilig will continue to be zero (the share price is so low as to assign no value to it atm anyway). Also it cannot be sold as who would want it if it can't get approval for development.

Medusa will need to look for other projects in other domains when funds permit and once current Co-O mine development is completed.

[chipperfrd] 22/6/2016 08:51

Niels,

Like so much of the gold industry, these are all questions for which answers are unclear - and deliberately so! I find it totally unacceptable that so much is opaque. It is even worse for the LBMA. At least the COMEX does issue some reports, even if the figures are questionable and have been challenged in the past. The CME have even fined JPM for inaccurate reporting of their positions and holdings.

So nothing is really clear and the eventual outcome of this month's deliveries will, no doubt, also be the same.

The delivery figure did creep up again yesterday. It is now 15,395 contracts (47.88 tonnes). CME reported 53.15 tonnes of Registered and 221.63 tonnes Eligible in their vault on the 20th June.
Chip

[nielsc] 22/6/2016 08:40

gersemi,

Note that the Shanghai exchange is a physical exchange. You have to have gold to sell it and you get gold when you buy it. Somewhat more simple and transparent.

Cheers,
Niels

[nielsc] 22/6/2016 08:25

chipperfrd,

I take it the last June delivery date is the 30th June?

If the COMEX gets overrun by physical delivery requests I would imagine that there would be a cash settlement (default). To solve the problem of no inventories they would have to let "price solve everything". The price would shoot up which would encourage sellers and slow down buying (perhaps).

Is this gold moved into the registered category actually real gold?
And if people take delivery do they actually come and take it away in a van? Or by delivery does it just move into the Allocated gold holding. Would be handy if it was the latter as then the "funny" registered gold could become "funny" allocated gold.

They will bend the rules as much as they possibly can.
Hopefully these are real deliveries that get taken away in a Brinks truck.

Cheers,
Niels

[gersemi] 21/6/2016 22:42

thanks chip

[stevea171] 21/6/2016 21:41

Farm2gate latest from HC re RG v's MML tribunal result.

>>> "Per my legal eagle friend, who alerted to this Fair Work case, I understand that Robert Gregory's Application was made more than 21 days after Medusa's deemed dismissal date, and therefore the dismissal of the Application by the Court s.394. If that is the case, how did this matter get to a costly Court hearing? Did RG believe his dismissal was at a more resent date, or did RG just get poor legal counsel?
IMO, the highly regarded Mining Engineer, RG (COO) and MML management, obviously parted on other than congenial grounds. As always DYOR."

[chipperfrd] 21/6/2016 13:26

Gersemi,

Worth noting that the institutions on the Comex get preferential margin rates for their positioning. So their derivatives are only backed by c. 3% of cash. Clearly this allows significant leverage to exert control on price.

However, there is usually no actual physical delivery, so a large amount of derivative trading can occur relative to a tiny level of physical metal. This is also the situation on the LBMA (over the counter) market in London.

But if (unusually) Comex has to deliver large amounts of gold to honour sell contracts, then this would upset the whole derivative trading scam and would weaken the ability of Comex to control the physical market. Particulary now that China has launched their 100%-backed, Yuan priced, gold fix on the Shanghai exchange.
Chip

[chipperfrd] 21/6/2016 13:09

You are welcome Gersemi.

According to my data, the last time that the Banks were over-run on the Comex and had to close their shorts in the face of an overwhelming buying frenzy was in the July - September 2011 time frame.

Since then there have been countless times when their printing of new sell contracts has forced long closure by the Comex speculators, with consequent falls in the gold price. This has been the situation for around 5 years now with the banks in full control of the price and able to repeatedly go through the 'wash/rinse' cycle every few weeks to cap rises and inevitably force the price lower.

Whether the current situation (ie record level of bank net short) coupled with actual high demand for physical delivery will indicate a pivotal turn, is a moot point. Only time will tell.
Chip

[gersemi] 21/6/2016 12:45

Chip

Thanks for that. It is all beginning to make sense and your insights have revealed to me a 'world' that I didn't know existed

You see, I thought that the increase in shorts was driven by an expectation of future falls in the gold price when in fact the increase is due to a desire to prevent a rise in the price of gold! That's very perverse indeed. It appears to reveal a degree of desperation

Anyway, thanks again

G

[chipperfrd] 21/6/2016 11:35

Hi Gersemi,

Possibly nothing, possibly a big deal. Difficult to say.

The US Futures market effectively sets the World price of gold, so anything that is unusual or at extreme levels 'could' mean that they are starting to lose control of gold pricing.

It is certainly very unusual for such a large number of contracts to be still standing for delivery at the end of a month. Usually it is the opposite - they fall off as the month progresses.

As I posted at the weekend, there is also currently a record level of Net Short positions by the Banks at 927 tonnes - which indicates they are having to create ever more sell contracts to keep the price from rising.

So not only are the banks having to go even more short they are also faced with (what I believe to be) a record high level of deliveries of actual physical gold. Put the two things together and it might indicate considerable stress on a market that generally is almost 100% just paper traded.
Chip