Medusa Share Discussion Threads

[tightfist] 10/5/2016 07:43

Hi Deka,

Yes, I like to see on a chart a significant intraday reversal on high volume, (in this case with a weaker PoG as well).

Time to review the data on grades below L8 and how the AISC should reduce before production increases next Summer - more info around on that now.

Cheers, tightfist

[deka1] 10/5/2016 07:24

MML traded near 4 mil shares last night and finished flat on a $20 drop in gold price, I call that a good show.

[nielsc] 10/5/2016 07:00

Has the gold and silver takedown run its course now?Will have to wait and see if we get a gradual retrace of prices.Cheers,Niels

[roguetreader] 09/5/2016 17:52

Cheers Tightfist
be good to get a video of any presentation Boyd delivers. I always like to see how a presentation is made and the body language and conviction of the person making it, as well as how they support the content of the slide-deck.
RT

[tightfist] 09/5/2016 17:30

Hi RT,

I seem to recall that there is an annual investing bash around this time of year on Rottnest Island, 20km off-shore Perth WA. Geoff Davis was a regular(?) presenter, just maybe Boyd is on the same wavelength. Previously there have been slide packs circulated before the conference.

Of course, that may be a complete Red Herring....

Cheers, tightfist
Edit: Whoops! The conference Rottnest "Euroz" seminar was on 16th March this year. However on this very date in 2014 there was a slidepack to support presentations in East Coast Oz and SE Asia - more of the same?

[roguetreader] 09/5/2016 16:55

The intro to the presentation states 'attached a Powerpoint presentation which the Company will present to Investors in May 2016'. I take that to mean there will be some sort of Roadshow or one-off interactive presentation to be announced soon? Is that anyone else's interpretation? any knowledge or rumours of pending events? It says May therefore must be soon?
RT

[chipperfrd] 09/5/2016 13:57

The report shows a chart of Comex Commercials Net Short positions against the gold price. This is exactly what I have charted from my Excel data but have been unable to easily post here - so it is good to see it published online.

I also have the same thing for Silver - which is also at an extreme.
Chip

[deka1] 09/5/2016 13:39

Yes Chip a very good read.

[chipperfrd] 09/5/2016 12:59

I suggest that this is a 'must read' report!

[chipperfrd] 09/5/2016 11:35

Justin (off-topic to MML)

You mentioned EDV in an earlier post. This is a stock I have monitored for a number of years and I am still maintaining my worksheet on it.

What had concerned me in earlier years had been the considerable dilution to holders (ie from 107.1m shares in 2010, 244.6m in 2011, 410.7m in 2012, 413m in 2013/14, 430m in 2015 and now 590m (before the 10:1 consolidation)).

They had also taken on a lot of debt US$316m in 2014, currently US$253m.

Retained earnings have slumped from +US$38.9m (2012) to -US$549m (2015).

Clearly, I appreciate that all mines need significant capital to be invested before holders can gain a reward and I am also only too aware of the very difficult period all PM miners have been through in recent years. But long term EDV investors do appear to have paid quite a high price over the last 5 years and now find that non-controlling interests have taken 49% of 2015 earnings.

I thought I had a decent handle on attributable earnings to holders but I now find that I have seriously underestimated the proportion allocated to non-controlling interests. This has pushed my calculation of trailing P/E to 43.6x !
Chip

[chipperfrd] 09/5/2016 10:15

Thanks Tightfist.

[tightfist] 09/5/2016 07:54

A new Investors Presentation on the ASX website with some interesting and useful new information, especially regarding resources.

Cheers tightfist

[jimbowen30] 08/5/2016 16:32

Justin

My view on CEY is that they could be underplaying production forecasts. They are forecasting 470k Oz for the year but produced 125k Oz in the last quarter. This is of course a good thing to under promise and over deliver. I can also see institutional money coming in as there aren't many other options! CEY have been good at keeping costs under control, unlike many other miners. Longer term, I see no reason why they won't exceed their old high of £2.

I wouldn't touch most of the london listed gold miners, although I do hold a couple of smaller gold stocks. Have you looked at GPM? It's a investment trust investing in pm stocks and trades on a discount of c15%, so an attractive opportunity imo and provides some diversification. Barring these investments there seems to be better opportunities on the TSX. Another one I like is Sandstorm, which is a streaming company. They have quite a bit of 'optionality' and trade on a lower rating than their bigger peers - silver Wheaton, royal gold and Franco Nevada.

For me the really interesting part of the market is the smaller explorers/prospect generators but this is the high risk stuff, so not for widows and orphans! I would not touch AIM stocks.

[deka1] 07/5/2016 20:45

Eintracht hi mate,perhaps the PM markets are all the same people , the same banks, using proxy set ups to take the other side of the trade, but in reality the short and longs are one and the same players, and the money just goes round and round through the same hands,no winner no loser---- perpetual motion in a zero sum game, to stop the mirror of gold reflecting the true value of the amount of devaluation of the mighty dollar, the worlds reverse currency .

as you say who in their right mind would play on a rigged wheel,when the croupier controls on what number the ball falls .

[chipperfrd] 07/5/2016 17:47

Justin (in response to your earlier post).

Obviously, my views are shaped by my own specific valuation methods and therefore are purely my opinions. I fully appreciate that you will do your own DD and therefore I will limit my commentary to brief comments rather than investment cases as I see them. I will confine myself to only London-listed names as you requested.

I should also mention that because of my trading methodology I don't actually need a large upside. Hence I am not necessarily focused or limited by only selecting high growth stocks - although that clearly plays a part.

Firstly a few of the larger names which I don't currently own:
Randgold (RRS) close to my definition of fair value but should correlate to gold moves.
Polymetal (POLY) considerably over-valued IMO
Petropavlosvsk (POG) over-valued - large debt
Hochschild (HOC) close to fair value
Acacia (ACA) I arrive at appreciable upside but I need to do more DD before opening any positions.

Producers that I do own:
Centamin (CEY) close to fair value based on 50% attrib. However, it will be at 60% for 2017/18 and 55% for 2019/20 - so my valuation is conservative IMO.
Also worth factoring-in the probability of market 'animal spirits' IF there is a clear resumption of the PM bull market. I am currently free-carried anyway but would enter new positions on my pre-determined pull-backs!
Highland (HGM) looks to have decent upside although Russian ops tending to cause discount. Free carried!
Fresnillo (FRES) I hold with reservations!
Pan African (PAF) large upside due to heavyweight Reserve/Resource on my valuation methodology but held back to a degree by S.African issues
Caledonia (CMCL) similar to PAF but Zimbabwe based. Largely free carried!
Goldbridges (GBGR) large potential upside. Turnaround likely this year.
Shanta (SHG) current large capex spend but decent NPV/IRR benefit
Trans Siberia (TSG) Russia and 2 large stakeholders - speculative!
Orosur (OMI) purely a trading play as their LoM is currently limited. Free carried!
Serabi (SRB) re-started project in Brazil. Not much action as yet!

Then there are development opportunities which I have largely chosen by DCF-type methods but having to employ the usual assumptions which raise the risk profile.
Hummingird (HUM) 2 decent projects. Awaiting promised funding for #1 from Taurus.
Aureus (AUE) speculative risk but I believe on the balance of probabilities that it is worthwhile.
Metals Exploration (MTL) pure trading play. Currently free carried.
China Non-Ferrous (CNG) small trading play
Mariana (MARL) multi-project explorer with 30% of superb Hot Maden project.

Worth mentioning the Long Silver ETF (LSIL). I don't like PM ETFs at all as they can only ever be derivatives of physical but I did decide to open a few positions in LSIL during 2015 because of the beaten-down silver price. So far it is going quite well but I have decided to set a very high sell margin on all positions rather than trade the zig-zags. So I am not aiming to gather free shares in this ETF - purely aiming for cash gains over the next few years.

I may have missed a few - but the list does contain most of my current LSE plays. You will probably consider the above to be a motley bunch but choice is somewhat limited on the LSE. I also favour the development/recovery plays as they have rewarded me well over the years.

All the best
Chip

[chipperfrd] 07/5/2016 13:04

Eintracht,

It is a 'zero sum game'. Every contract has a buyer on one side and a seller on the other.

Currently both gold and silver futures are in extreme conditions (at least from my weekly data that starts from 17th May 2011 - ie currently 260 weeks).

Putting it in metric tonnes (because contracts are each worth 100 oz for gold and 5,000 oz for silver and translated to total oz the figures are very large).

Current Open Interest for gold (ie total of open contracts) is 1,760 tonnes. This is the highest I have seen. About 63% of annual global production!

Current Open Interest in silver is 30,829 tonnes. More than a year of global production!!

Perhaps of more interest is the Commercial Net Short positioning. This is primarily the 4 major banks at the heart of COMEX who issue new sell contracts (ie paper derivatives of gold & silver).

Obviously, by issuing new sell contracts they are absorbing fresh buying by the 'so-called' Speculators who wish to gain more exposure. And have through this mechanism been able to exert pressure on price which effectively is the global spot price.

Commercial Net Short positions have 'blown out' in the last COT report from what was already an exceedingly high level. At the date of the COT report (3/5/16) they were net short 917 tonnes of gold from 747 tonnes a week earlier. This is a new 5-year high from my data.

In silver, the commercial net short position is 14,089 tonnes which is just 110 tonnes lower than the 5-year record high of a week earlier.

It is sobering to see that the commercial net short in gold was only 9.1 tonnes on 1/12/15. So they have added 908 tonnes of paper gold sales in just 5 months as gold has moved from US$1,057/oz to it's current level.
Chip

[nielsc] 07/5/2016 11:03

Remember the LBMA have stopped publishing the GOFO rates as it was obviously highlighting the premium being paid for physical.The worst of this fraud is that governments are involved. Regardless of that it will be some junior metals desk trader that becomes the scape goat.Cheers,Niels

[nielsc] 07/5/2016 10:56

Eintracht,It must be a case of people playing along or just genuinely being unaware. There has been plenty of chat on this bb, but are all investors so well informed. Are investors in the US happily watching the talking heads and being completely duped. Cheers,Niels

[eintracht] 07/5/2016 08:16

That's interesting reading Nielsc. I'm probably being a bit thick here but, this is obviously common knowledge and so why would anybody buy a paper gold contract on COMEX ? For the banks to continually short contracts they must have a buyer who is long ?

[nielsc] 07/5/2016 00:45

I am feeling hopeful we are close to seeing something pop at the COMEX.

Craig at TF Metals report posted this earlier in the week



Note the
5/3/16 $1292 565,774 410,000 contracts at a minimum or 1,275 mts of paper gold

Currently it looks like any price suppression just isn't working with the gold price bouncing back to finish the week at just under $1290.

Will it just be a case of cash settlement and a price reset over a weekend when this sham breaks?

Cheers,
Niels

[chipperfrd] 06/5/2016 18:15

Justin,

I am currently away from home but will try and respond to your post when I get back. I also mainly trade the LSE - for similar reasons.
Chip

[ilostthelot] 06/5/2016 15:41

Once they've built a big cash pile and start talking about building another mine that'll be my cue to Sell.

[justinjjbuk] 06/5/2016 15:40

Chip

Somewhat off topic, but can I pick your brains on any London-listed goldies you recommend I look at. As you know, I like to trade in and out of stocks on the news flow, but doing this with Australian stocks in my ISA kills performance as you have to go in and out of sterling.

Temporarily, I put my ISA funds in Centamin because I wanted to remain fully exposed to miners with gold looking like it could challenge $1,300. This position has done well, but Centamin looks so much more expensive than other Australian or Canadian names I am in (twice as expensive as Endeavour in Canada for example) and has residual Egypt litigation risk. Anything else you recommend London-listed?

The usual suspects like Randgold and Acacia look very expensive to me and more speculative stuff like Highland just looks too risky from a country-risk perspective. Anything I am missing?

Thanks

Justin

[justinjjbuk] 06/5/2016 14:34

Chip

Yes, thanks for the extra detail on Banganghilig, I had forgotten what its exact spec would be. Well I guess we will see soon enough whether they are going to do anything with it. Guess I am just a bit worried that Boyd Timler is floating other post Co-O options. If Banganghilig is really a 140k oz a year operation as was flagged in presentations 3 or 4 years ago, then I would think that they would be expending all their efforts going forward on it (or at least when Co-O starts to throw out appreciable amounts of cash upon service shaft completion, so allowing Banganghilig development). Just get the sense they've gone cold on it. Anyway, we shall see after a quarter or two what he wants to do with it.