Lochard Energy Share Discussion Threads

[falklands] 07/6/2013 12:32

Well frankly bomfin clives behaviour highlights why aims in a mess we all know if we had an independent board say mr encore the situation would be different and share price a hell of a lot higher now.

More to the point bomfin I mentioned spike exploration are jumping up and down from last month purchase on this spin.

[falklands] 07/6/2013 12:27

Well from the last accounts stated pay off Henderson by June and Gemini reduced to 20% not 50% now you can argue time slipped one month but all this wells are high risk etc by Clive it's really not on. All offshore production has these risks. No development work for 2 years kiwi.

[bomfin] 07/6/2013 12:25

lhd directors are a resourceful lot. They've managed to wish up some water cut in the last week. Or is it just figures being massaged. What they have stated though is material to Trap and Trap should respond. imho

[7kiwi] 07/6/2013 12:21

Even though I don't think LHD will go bust, there clearly is some liquidity risk at present. They have to keep paying Gemini out of production revenue, they have to use some moeny to pay for remdial works on the Athena well, and they have to find $1.7m (plus interest plus 5%) to pay off Henderson by end October.

The cashflow from production should cover it; but there is a risk that if the production problems remain or get worse they could be embarrassed in October.

[7kiwi] 07/6/2013 12:15

Interesting take form shareprophets.

Even I think the article is full of inaccuracies. For a start the Sproule CPR is for the hwole field and LHD have only 10% of it, so I don't know where his £1.25/bbl comes from. Moreover, there are plenty of examples of producing fields that have been bought for more than £5/bbl of 2P.

Plus I think the danger of LHD going bust is small. However, with the need to build cash on the balance sheet to cover development and remedial capex is real, and puts the kibosh on those who might think dividends are going to be paid any time soon.

This p/e of 1 thing is also far too optimistic too in that it essentially assumes the field will continue to produce at over 10,000bopd, which it most probably won't and doesn't take into account corporate overheads, which even though they have been cut, will not be zero.

The other point to note is that both TRAP and IAE have bought assets recently where they have made quite a bit of structuring the deals so they get cash payback in about a year. If that is the broad price that real industry buyers are prepared to pay for producing assets in the North Sea, then why would anyone think that LHD would be sold for significantly more than that in a cash deal?

[falklands] 07/6/2013 12:02

Also sad on twitter that the trapists think it's time for a twitter bash with Paul on lhd at the end of the day it's doing greater harm to trap share price re Athena, i know bomfin or on advfn at present there has not been such feeling.

Athena is not causeway we all read the CPR it's only just shown Limited water.

[falklands] 07/6/2013 12:00

Indeed promoted by Tom bad research however they are only taken in what the lhd board say and fail to mention PE of 1 going forward, Henderson debt paid off June, 20% not 50% implied debt repayment, oil tanker due $3 million not 100k balance. No development costs for two years.

[bomfin] 07/6/2013 11:45

One of those fields was bought 10 years ago and its still producing.

[bomfin] 07/6/2013 11:37

Just some facts to add to the spin.

In the past TC has bought assets which had more than 90% water cut and they still made money for Dana.

[frazboy] 07/6/2013 11:20

unfortunately also a poor article

"If this deal does not go through Lochard is bust. It has material debts to repay. Athena production will fall to a non-commercial level. And major new capex will be needed to extract all that oil that Sproule told us was there. The directors make that clear today. - See more at: hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/analysis/591/are-lochard-energy-shareholders-mad-the-latest-statement-on-the-parkmead-offer#sthash.7Ufl9DYK.dpuf"

parkmead don't have any cash either, so presumably they'll go bust too?

nonsense

[phoenix1234] 07/6/2013 11:10

Are Lochard Energy shareholders mad? The latest statement on the Parkmead Offer
 hxxp://www.shareprophets.com/analysis/591/are-lochard-energy-shareholders-mad-the-latest-statement-on-the-parkmead-offer

[nw99] 07/6/2013 10:40

Share prophets Zak Mir good comments worth a look

[therealdeal5] 07/6/2013 09:01

I do agree it's a disgrace how hendersons keep putting up RNS's on this stock to try to sway some of the 25% of holders to switch voting, i can not understand what happens if this goes through to Lochard share price, as the damage has now been done by the BOD's here, it just goes to show how if someone has that much clout & is invested in two parties trying to do a deal that they should by law & regulations NOt be allowed to be biased in one way or another, it is clear that Hendersons have a conflict of interests here, how can this be allowed? it is not at all in favour of LHD but in favour of PMG which although i hold a lot of PMG shares i think is totally criminal what they are doing with scare tactics, i would of course like PMG to get LHD for the revenues, & also TRAP & AEY, but not at the expense of other shareholders to be sold down the river by their own BOD's.

[bomfin] 07/6/2013 08:54

Looking over the following paragraph which was rns'd today 7th June 2013.

Sproule International Limited ("Sproule") undertook an independent reserves assessment for Lochard in 2012 and estimated original recoverable Proved Developed Producing reserves at 18 mmbbl (gross) and Proved plus Probable reserves at 26 mmbbl (gross). Approximately 3.6 mmbbl (gross) of oil has been produced as at 31 May 2013. It is the opinion of the Lochard Directors (the "Directors") that extra investment in wells would be required to achieve the reserves consistent with the Sproule Proved plus Probable estimate.


I read this as stating the current situation is that lhd expect to get the 18 million barrels out of Athena from the current development. It only states that further investment is considered necessary to get to the proved + probable figure of 26 million barrels reserves.

imho dyor

[therealdeal5] 07/6/2013 08:51

I sold my shares in Trap a couple of weeks ago i saw this coming, i warned them over there that the share price would fall back due to what is happening here, ie the offer made by PMG, now i do feel 6p is a fair price to pay here, & 10p for TRAP, all i can say is that i am a business man & i know what companies are worth in these economic times, housing market is bouncing back, as my building company is now back to where we were approx 3 years ago with contracts from local authorities, so with Gas being the new driver in UK & USA, saudi to quit oil which seems unbelievable to me, where does that leave small producers like TRAP & LHD? Tom Cross sees the future, he knows it's with GAS this is why he is following a divers portfolio of assets not all his eggs are in one basket, he has Aupec under his control, which advise World governments on how to divest, invest & tax issues on Oil & gas revenues, how many companies can boast that? i think it would be best for all if TC did get LHD & TRAP along with AEY, we would all benefit from it, what will happen over the coming years is that PMG will grow, as it is a Growth stock, while others will dwindle on the hope of the right exploration will come up, no one knows the North sea as well as Tom Cross, you can believe that or not, but follow TC & you will make a lot of money in 5 years time if you have the patience,

[falklands] 07/6/2013 08:40

Ct yes makes me chuckle and the rest of north sea oil companies don't have the same risk Clive you really are an employee of Henderson with family connections and a bag of money in a tesco car park from Tom cross of parkmead

[falklands] 07/6/2013 08:33

Yawn

It's a cycle of spin by clive we been over this I said if anybody want to know what's really going on phone Adam at corn hill capital.

I also said a couple of days back what traders are up to here

[7kiwi] 07/6/2013 08:29

CT:

"Production problems do not change the amount of oil that is available to be produced."

Oh, but they do. They have said that if P1 or P2 fail, then it probably won't be economic to fix them; ergo the oil they would have produced wouldn't be available to be produced.

P2 has failed, but in such a way as they think it can be fixed economically. But that will cost LHD £200K to do so. It will take a while for their share of the 600bopd from this well (60bopd) to cover the £200K (as a guess about 90 days).