Lochard Energy Share Discussion Threads

[therealdeal5] 06/6/2013 08:48

Tool!! i want to know what idiot said there were other offers on the table that he had inside knowledge of this? anyone remember someone saying that on this board??

So was that a lie falklands??? where is this other offer you mentioned??? we are all still waiting here for it, so you are either an Tool or a LIAR!! which is it?

[giant steps] 06/6/2013 08:39

Looks like the current offer is dead in the
water despite folk thinking otherwise


RNS 6th June 2013 - Cornhill with over 25% blocking vote

[therealdeal5] 06/6/2013 08:36

hxxp://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/articles/place-your-faith-in-parkmead#.UbA7qECTjng

[therealdeal5] 06/6/2013 08:36

hxxp://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/articles/place-your-faith-in-parkmead#.UbA7qECTjng

[falklands] 06/6/2013 08:31

Well there it is over 25% Tom better offer and Clive I think support shows what lhd shareholders think of your last rns

VICTORY FOR CHRISOIL !

[frazboy] 06/6/2013 08:07

agreed utrecht, it would have showed up when Spike Exploration did due diligence

i am genuinely fascinated so see how this one pans out

[bomfin] 06/6/2013 07:55

My post edited to give Spike their correct title which is Spike Exploration.
Well funded company with Athena their first production acquisition.

[utrecht_00] 06/6/2013 07:47

Framboise, if there was a productions oboes it cannot as you say be or have been serious as that was when spike oil was doing due diligence and I doubt they would have bought a chunk if there were serious issues and extra costs likely.

[bomfin] 06/6/2013 07:40

Again, it's just too convenient for LHD directors to mention production in 3 very specific months. March,April and May when they know that we can all see Athena production for all the months excluding these. Since Athena monthly average production has regularly been beneath what all partners have claimed is the field production rate by 500 to 1,000 bopd each month that has been reported how do we read anything into what they have stated? Frazboy has made an attempt to do so but we simply don't know when they have been receiving payment for produced oil. They could just as easily highlighted that Athena continues to produce dry oil! (not mentioned) or that they have now reached the end of 50% payments or they could have stated what Spike Exploration stated when they bought into Athena on 13th May.
" The Athena Oil Field is located in the Outer Moray Firth Area of the UKCS, in Block 14/18b (licence P1293) The field was brought on stream in May 2012 via four production wells and one water injection well, all from a single subsea template. The wellstream is processed onboard the stand-alone FPSO, BW Athena, owned and operated by BW Offshore. Current production is just above 10,000 boe per day with the oil being shipped to the Nigg terminal."

[frazboy] 05/6/2013 23:39

i have been wondering why the Lochard board members are so keen to say that the offer is a good one, whilst refusing to give precise details of the production 'problems' in March, April, and May. The key points in their latest update are, to my mind:

"A variety of operational issues during March, April and May 2013, including some short-term interruptions to ESP output, temporarily reduced output from the field below 10,000 bopd."

"The Board notes that the Cornhill Consortium includes individuals with longstanding links to the Company but who are unlikely to be aware of the most recent performance of the Company and its assets."

first, as Bonfin alluded to, if they know the production numbers for March, April and May, then why do they not declare them?

secondly, the only asset that really matters in terms of performance is Athena. other "assets" does not cut the mustard

my view on this is not complex. i've crunched the numbers, and i think there is a production problem at Athena, but not necessarily a serious one. had they continued to produce @ ~10,000 bopd they should have paid off more of the debt, and perhaps would not have needed the Henderson loan. what people seem to be forgetting is that Athena is essentially fixed cost, it doesn't matter how much oil is being produced (assuming no water is being produced) the boat is still floating out there, and the lease costs still need to be paid, and the staff costs, and the helicopter costs etc. if they fail to meet the 10,000 bopd number then revenues falls, and costs per barrel rise.

the difficult in determining the seriousness of the production problem is compounded by inventories, lack of clarity on costs, and how much they actually receive from BP per barrel of oil! how difficult is it to declare that? i assume that Parkmead know!

in summary in my opinion, at 4.7p paper offer (0.385 * 12.25p (current share price i think)) PMG are getting LHD cheap, but not quite as cheap as some perhaps believe? given the liquidity issues (with LHD and PMG), i opted to increase my holding in TRAP (the market capitalisation of which has been underwritten by the PMG offer for LHD) and not buy LHD. but that's just me, good luck to all holders, and if anyone wants to compare the actual numbers with me then i'll be happy to provide some data

if anyone wants the DECC production data for Athena (up to end Feb) then look here:

hxxps://www.og.decc.gov.uk/pprs/report4.pdf

good night all

[bomfin] 05/6/2013 17:41

With £200,000 debt at the 50% level left they have effectively already finished 50%/month repayments because next month will only be about 40% (That's if they add on the 20% and after that they are down to 20%. imho dyor It's just possible next months repayment will already be down to 20% and then moving on to 20%. e.g. They pay 20% to pay the £200,000 remaining on the 50% and then after that they move onto the $14 million to be repaid at 20%/month.
Lhd directors should have been spinning it like that by stating they've finsished repayments at 50%/month but instead they went for negative spin. Which is negation of their duty as directors. imho dyor

[bomfin] 05/6/2013 17:36

The Aptly named Clive Carver. lol

[falklands] 05/6/2013 17:26

CT your doing great guns cornhill are no idiots and been through the calculations with me.

the trouble here is lots of traders mis information, you have one lot who want lhd cheap as possible to buy to gain leverage on pmg loo paper for the offer to go ahead.

one lot who want to buy lhd cheaper hoping for a break up in offer and one lot who are mad.

the long termers just wait as the cash grows pe of 1 due to cost cutting etc clive rns is just spin henderson debt paid off in june re accounts, oil tanker load not taken into account for the low cash balance and not 20% debt reduction yet pull the other one only £200,000 k away

As for athena production is not going to decline by much this is not poor antrim energy causeway drops to nothing by end of 2014 athena based on cpr going to increase in years to come hence why spike exploration bought in and trap.

[bam bam rubble] 05/6/2013 16:47

If its taken 1 year to make the first $14m through 5% royalty, then at 2% royalty
and a constant rate of production it will take 2.5 years to pay out another $14m.
Apply a 20% decline curve and its more like 3 years.

$2m debt is also accrued under the £3m facility from Henderson Global Investors.

[bomfin] 05/6/2013 14:33

I think it's absolutely disgraceful that the lhd directors have shed such doubt upon the Athena field without quantifying any amounts whatsover. The Trap CEO reported in May and the video is on the Trap website saying how pleased they are with Athena production. I'd much rather take his word for it than these directors who have shown they'll change tack completely depending on what deal they want done.
hxxp://www.trapoil.com/investor-relations/video/agm-summary-may-2013/

Trap said
Athena cash flow currently running at a net £2m/month in their AGM presentation on 7th May.

[frazboy] 05/6/2013 12:21

i took the 20% off from 1st June

and yes, "A variety of operational issues during March, April and May 2013, including some short-term interruptions to ESP output, temporarily reduced output from the field below 10,000 bopd. These interruptions highlight the uncertainties to Lochard of being dependent on cash flow from a single asset such as Athena.", that statement is critical. we will find out what March production was in early July, DECC data only available to Feb. i may be able to calculate March data from Ithacas Q1 statement (given that i know Jan & Feb production) but don't hold your breath, information is never straightforward to extract

[frazboy] 05/6/2013 11:54

yes CT, From Traps annual report on the 27th March

to make my calcs work for LHD (to reconcile there Feb and May statements) i assumed 8000 bopd March, 8000 bopd April, 8800 bopd May. but you can cut this up how you wish.

my old calcs on TRAP were: 365*(0.15*10500)*65 ("net back" is the term i think) gives $37.3m for 1 years production

however, peak production for a month has never exceeded 10,300 (November), and was 9970 in February. so the numbers above have to be treated with some caution

don't trust press releases, but having said that, i'm very comfortable with my holding in TRAP so long as they don't blow their cash pile carelessly