Leaf Clean Energy Share Discussion Threads

[lonrho] 04/6/2014 16:01

looks interesting but looking at company web site and recent results statements I cannot find any mention of the profitability or otherwise of the companies in which Leaf is invested. Has anyone got any information on this. Hopefully there will be something on this in the coming circular.

[spectoacc] 30/5/2014 08:06

Good call on him selling.

[skyship] 30/5/2014 07:23

Well, good to see the back of Brian Keogh:

[flyfisher] 28/5/2014 11:36

The LEAF exit of miasole solar would seem to be one of the catalysts for the heavy fall to the current level, it was sold to the Chinese at a heavy loss to cost.



However, woodford should know the potential value in the residual investments as he has a long history of being invested from his time at invesco, invesco being the largest holder of LEAF.

[skyship] 27/5/2014 14:43

Hmm - former CEO Brian Keogh held only 500,000 shares - half bought @ 70p back in 2010 - see RNS below. Paid himself $750k pa for very little result. Good riddance.

[hugepants] 27/5/2014 13:02

simon gordon
27 May'14 - 09:52 - 24 of 27 1 0

I suppose the two main indicators that the NAV might be achievable is Crystal Amber and Woodford Investments both buying chunky stakes, they must have done some detailed homework.

Its a fair point so I've bought some. Will need more confidence on the NAV before buying more.

[skyship] 27/5/2014 12:47

Well if it is then they've sure got a long way to go!

As of 30th April they held 51.4m (39.9%)

Surely most likely event would be a block sale to Crystal Amber or Woodford rather than supplying the Market and holding the price down.

My guess is the old directors getting rid of their holdings - but need to check out how much they held...

[tiltonboy] 27/5/2014 11:29

Is it possibly Invesco selling!

[spectoacc] 27/5/2014 11:01

Agreed on points above - NAV seems inherently uncertain and timescale does too - clearly isn't going to be quick from co's comments.

But countered by Woodford - also wonder if he'll keep increasing his stake as money goes into his new fund. It's enough to get me in anyway.

[simon gordon] 27/5/2014 09:52

I suppose the two main indicators that the NAV might be achievable is Crystal Amber and Woodford Investments both buying chunky stakes, they must have done some detailed homework.

[renew] 27/5/2014 09:44

If I was convinced of that I'd buy a lot!!!

[hugepants] 27/5/2014 09:35

I guess the question is how accurate is the NAV especially when you start selling stuff? The recent results mention the challenging environment for raising funding some of these companies are having. TREE and GFIR are examples where the published NAV is/was bordering on the cobblers. Also LEAF invested mainly in US where markets are at record highs. If I was convinced the NAV was prudent and realistic Id probably buy some.

[skyship] 27/5/2014 08:37

G'morning Simon. Early days really; need to see the Circular. Too early to set up a Gross Redemption Yield model; but from a base of 50p:

# 4yrs to 75p on 27/05/2018 = 10.66%

# 4yrs to 85p on 27/05/2018 = 14.18%

# 3yrs to 75p on 27/05/2017 = 14.46%

# 3yrs to 85p on 27/05/2017 = 19.34%

On this basis LEAF have to be a very attractive punt @ 50p; and once the Circular has been assessed, perhaps a larger allocation investment...

Grateful for all views guys...

[simon gordon] 27/5/2014 08:25

SKY,

What kind of return are expecting LEAF to generate over the next few years?

[skyship] 26/5/2014 10:37

The upcoming circular likely to add flesh to the bones of this piece from the recent Interims. Expecting the word "realisations" to feature prominently!
==========================================================================

26 March 2014

MANAGEMENT REPORT

Overview

2013 witnessed the second consecutive year of contraction for global clean energy investment, falling 11% from 2012 levels, to US$254 billion. However, this fall in investment volume was concentrated mainly in Europe, where uncertainty surrounded renewable energy subsidies in key countries.

In Leaf's main investment geography, the United States, the picture has improved steadily since the disappointing first quarter of 2013. The market recovery through the subsequent three quarters has resulted in an investment climate favourable for Leaf's interest in pursuing some near term realisations. Leaf's only wind investment, Invenergy, was not significantly impacted by the PTC delay, and the policy uncertainty had a limited impact on our company.

On the public markets front, the continuing rally in the WilderHill New Energy Global Innovation Index (NEX) that began in July 2012 continued apace throughout 2013, and the increase in public market equity raises in the sector, noted in Leaf's latest annual report, accelerated. This is a very good sign for valuations and hence the prospect for realisations within the Leaf portfolio.

[skyship] 24/5/2014 09:38

Fly - many thanks for the heads-up on this one. I had totally forgotten about it since Simon flagged it up to me on his SHA thread back in early March. I see Tiltonboy has also acknowledged and bought a few - always a good sign IMO...

[envirovision] 23/5/2014 08:43

Nope, but thats a name I keep reading about lately, people seem to love him right?

[flyfisher] 23/5/2014 08:40

Enviro , 44% disc to nav looks attractive, did you notice that neil woodford took a stake recently.

[envirovision] 23/5/2014 08:26

Could be easy money short and longer term

[dashton42] 26/3/2014 07:18

Interesting developments today; CRS has got its way and ousted the Chairman and CE, and installed Mark Lerdal and Stephen Cole from 31st May.

The EGM is off, and now, presumably, CRS will support a continuation of the company, working to achieve a significant reduction of the discount to NAV (and also in the administrative expenses).

[dashton42] 10/3/2014 08:23

What do big institutions ever do, davidosh? They mainly seem to support the status quo by default. It takes a relatively small, activist investor like CRS to come in and shake things up.

If nothing else, it'll be a kick up the backside for the bod.

[kooba] 08/3/2014 22:33

A number of them do not like to upset the apple cart too much so are not that activist...but I would imagine now there is a proposal for monetisation and a liquid exit they will rally round CA...I'm sure the board are trying to canvass support but the discount to nav and the track record seem difficult to back!

[davidosh] 07/3/2014 16:03

What have the big institutions been doing about this before CRS got involved ?

Invesco Asset Management 45.8
Lansdowne Partners 14.2
Kames Capital 13.9
Crystal Amber Fund 10.0
Jupiter Asset Mgmt 7.42
JP Morgan Asset Management(UK) 3.92
BlueCrest Capital Mgmt LP 3.32

[kooba] 07/3/2014 10:48

Yes it appears the current team has been happily ploughing through the balance sheet over a number of years both in bad investments and high central costs.Central costs over £5m and we only have 3 active investments and only 8 or so investments in total and there has been no changes for almost a year....so what the team is doing apart from sitting back and getting paid handsomely is a mystery.Winding this up makes sense as it is not working from any outside shareholder perspective ...although an organised wind down of the portfolio may not be able to realise full stated nav (depends on how realistic the co's valuations are) it will still be a decent premium to current levels and wind down what is an inefficient structure run by poor management that is not in shareholder interests.The institutions will decide its fate but worth backing CA resolutions to move this towards a sensible monetisation of investments in the foreseeable.

[dashton42] 06/3/2014 09:54

An interesting move by CRS today, calling an EGM to consider winding the company up and returning cash to shareholders:



(It could be a bonanza result for LEAF shareholders if CRS gets its way - note "...the last reported net asset value of 93.80p on 30 June 2013..."