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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Itaconix Plc | ITX | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
|
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | 3.28% | 157.50 | 12:38:58 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 152.50 | 152.50 | 157.50 | 157.50 | 152.50 |
| Industry Sector |
|---|
| CHEMICALS |
| Top Posts |
|---|
Posted at 08/4/2024 20:45 by elsol It's a big number Dex prob 80m GBP at least. Well above current Mcap. In process R&D in gestation about to hatch at last! ITX has taken a few years. Can't wait for diversification success news as will derisk ITX product set,bring back investor confidence and share price will rebound north of placing price. |
Posted at 05/4/2024 09:28 by lefrene The scale of it tells you that it's formulation PTT.JS would not have made this move without IP Group approval. IP Group will be as keen as anybody to see this business move up the profit chain, and will be aware of whatever good things are coming down the track, and also know that selling patented product cheap, sends out the wrong message to a market that increasingly needs this 'clean' product. I suspect that it won't be long before the kept persons in Brussels will ban phosphates in a wide range of consumer products. My guess they will wait until their large corporation sugar daddies are in a position to replace phosphates, and the ITX construction of a new plant in Europe could well be that event. So perhaps another 12 months? Once that happens ITX will get noticed. To my mind the opportunity here is being sold for beer money. |
Posted at 03/4/2024 09:03 by lefrene Losing $2 mil turnover at 9% net means losing $180k of profit, however by not doing that work we release capacity to do higher margin work.From the Pro-Active video it would seem that there has been a long and friendly relationship with this end user, so perhaps after a bit of reflection they come together again? Perhaps the party involved feels he is 'owed' by JS for the long standing support from the early days, and understandably is digging his heels in. But the world moves on, 'green' is here to stay, he knows ITX has a reliable product, hopefully they can come to a deal further down the road. JS would not have taken this stance without the blessing of IP Group. I guess moving ITX products into being seen as valuable, rather than as a cheap commodity supplier, is seen as the way to position ITX as adding much extra value to the end products, and thus worth a premium. Perhaps the end user if he too is in the 'green' game, can raise his prices to his customers. If this is a fairly simple bulk process, JS may find 15% net as a workable margin? In the meantime as our new products expand there will be available capacity to swiftly respond to any new business. To replace that lost $180k profit on $2 mil at 9% one needs circa $600k of business at a sensible 30%. imo the price reaction is way overdone. One might hope that JS brings out some good news with the results, although on past track record, perhaps best not to. |
Posted at 02/4/2024 19:15 by elsol PTT,The new Fcst 24 is an optical financial worst case scenario (low case) assuming the worst outcome and total loss of revenues going forwards for this client (a client that appears to have v low profitability overall and hence low contribution to the value of the firm in totality irrespective to its total revenue - in all probability we will not see the worst case evolve into the actual revenue outturn since the party may order more than the worst case for the rest of FY 24 and may return in FY25. In any case much of the value of ITX is not currently generating revenue but has value nevertheless. Its subsumed in the share price so my take is yes we may have lost a chunk of revenue - its not really profitable so times by, say, 75% then consider R&D projects overlay value so you cannot say we lost x% revenue and that translates to x% share price fall as we are dealing with apples (profitable revenue) and oranges (non-profitable revenue and grapefruit (future much bigger very profitable revenues) that can occupy the plant capacity. See my note on LSE chat re: plant capacity and value maximisation of total ITX portfolio (existing and new customers) which may mean the decision today is actually value accretive as a portfolio rather than destroying value. Its a strange concept but one you have to get your head around with this stock if you are serious medium term invetor. |
Posted at 02/4/2024 10:41 by lefrene It seems the Board have decided that they won't be hustled into being a cheap supplier to some other part of the industry, and will let that end user get basic ingredients from a producer perhaps with less of a moat that needs thin margin high turnover to survive.The capacity that has been making the thin margin stuff will now be available to produce higher value product. The good news would be that the super absorbents are opening up, and that ITX will have the capacity to satisfy that market without just yet having to build new capacity. They are demonstrating that they won't be 'owned' by their clients, and sending that message out to the industry. ITX has the patents, their product improves the clients end product at no extra cost above previous ingredients. I believe they are doing the right thing, even if today the market doesn't like it. |
Posted at 31/3/2024 21:47 by elsol I agree Parob, more investors are getting interested now since ITX's business delivery risk is lower now than ever before plus quite a few big name brands are adopting our ingredients with significant 'on sell' opps. for larger product portfolios - we also have plenty of cash runway with improving profitability in 2024 so its unlikely we will ever need to worry about further financing dilution (unless for one off large client growth linked investment or inorganic growth possibilities - M&A). Still lots of 'would-be' ECO chem investors imo still out there yet to find ITX though which is the interesting aspect for exiting shareholders... |
Posted at 27/3/2024 09:08 by rivaldo Impressive Sharesoc presentation which I believe hasn't been posted here before:Elsol has posted elsewhere a summary of some of the highlights, for which thanks: "1. Only $2m needed if they wanted to build a new plant - v. low capital intensity and minimal electric used in process 2. So many parallel new product avenues are here beyond detergents and hygiene - many significant - new ones for me were crop protection and industrial water treatment 3. IP moat - 16 families blocks competition and locks us in to brands 4. Retail channels (now ubiquitous ITX in most key channels)- very diverse with >170brands. Amazon - large mail order access channel 5. We have Reckitt as a client also which I did not know - another massive cleaning/hygiene global player 6. Big bonus focus onto much higher new vol markets for 24/25+ 7. Now we have an artistic painting and shoe/ leather items to physically demonstrate and showcase to ITX clients - impressive. 8. John 's words - "very bright future & very exciting" so my take is that we are really on the cusp of major diversification opportunities 9. Slick new ITX web site in c. 8 weeks time so early May should be launched - will bring further client adoption/conversion benefits due to greater external impact - we are now here to stay as a major ECO functional ingredients business with some compelling new marketing strap lines like we are seeing recently being trademarked" |
Posted at 28/2/2024 08:22 by rivaldo Forget the past - look at the huge potential from where ITX are now.ITX are at this stage of their evolution more likely to be valued at a multiple of recurring revenues given that this is where their core attraction lies in terms of "stickability" etc. Such a multiple could conservatively be say 5 times revenues - so to achieve a £60m valuation ITX would only need £12m revenues. Not such a big step from where ITX are today. And even if ITX were to be valued on a P/E ratio at a £60m m/cap, if ITX were forecast to achieve fast growth in profitability having reached an optimum point in scaling up, they'd be more likely to be valued on a P/E of 20 or more, thus requiring "only" a £3m PAT at the maximum. |
Posted at 26/2/2024 13:59 by lefrene Horses for courses, Amazon caught the dot-com boom, and could be seen to have a rapidly rising revenue flow. It was All Americun too, and could have invented the phrase 'financial engineering', constantly leveraging the cash flow to grow the scale of the business. I didn't like the business model in the early 90's so I didn't buy it, a huge mistake.ITX as we know is not an Amazon type business, it actually has something real to offer, but which can't grow cashflow in the way an Amazon style business can. So ITX has to prove itself as having value, which are PROFITS arising from a product that is wanted by a growing market. Because ITX is so poor at promoting itself imo it's also exposed to private vulture funds pouncing on it, who will do a proper marketing job, and sell it back into the market at easily 3 times the current market cap. There is a list of positives as long as ones arm in this company, and yet it remains in the shadows. Vultures will be watching. |
Posted at 26/2/2024 11:17 by lefrene dexdringle, true the market is a perpetual horse race, but one has to know at what track the nag is running, and be interested/knowledgeMarkets get moved by big money, and cash hungry small techies with a 'story' but no profits, are currently out of favour. (yes I know ITX is no longer cash hungry, but do the 'filters' know that yet?) We are waiting for PROFIT in order to get noticed in a world that is looking for safety in low risk dividend payers. I'm expecting that this business will soon be able to offer profits and growth, protected by a raft of patents. ITX will be known to the big players in the industry, it would make an easy bolt-on 'green' offering. All the hard work has been done, no more capital investment required, and once in profit capital could be borrowed against future earnings. Hence I continue to hold in the expectation that once PROFIT is reached the value will improve, plus in my view a predator could pounce once their beancounters are happy with the figures. |
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