ISG Share Discussion Threads

[grahamburn] 11/2/2016 17:27

oregano. I did say yesterday that those institutions may well just be sitting on the fence to see which way the wind blows when the final acceptance figures come in on 18 February.

[oregano] 11/2/2016 17:08

i would be surprised if they could change sides and without disclosing it. but at the same time i am surprised ISG did not confirm the institutions were still committed in their last publication.

I expect we will see an update from both sides tomorrow.

[grahamburn] 11/2/2016 14:56

Indeed, it isn't clear. As noted in my earlier posts, the first rejection document by ISG clearly stated the support of its two principal institutional shareholders (apart from Cathexis of course). The following is the relevant extract from that document:

"When combined with the letters from our two
largest UK institutional Shareholders, being
Octopus Investments Limited and River and
Mercantile Asset Management LLP, the
Company has received letters of intent not
to accept the Offer in respect of 7,985,428
ISG Shares in aggregate, representing
approximately 16.1 per cent of the Company’s
issued share capital and approximately 22.9
per cent of the Shares subject to the Offer."

Yet there isn't any reference to this in the most recent rejection. So, if these two institutions have switched sides (and it wouldn't surprise me if Cathexis sounded them each out very carefully before quantifying the revised offer), then Cathexis would be over the 50% mark without any other shareholders accepting through the normal channels.

Just have to wait until next Wednesday/Thursday to find out!

[markie7] 11/2/2016 12:41

it really isn't that clear!

[salpara111] 11/2/2016 12:20

It is very clear that they are not going to get to takeover the business so what happens next?

[grahamburn] 11/2/2016 09:15

Yes, but the rise to 35% is only from buying in the market (as such). We have no idea how many large or small shareholders have accepted (or are about to accept) the offer through the normal channels.

[cc2014] 10/2/2016 20:20

Well they've made it up to 35% now so they are going to need a slug from the institutions to get there

[grahamburn] 10/2/2016 19:58

Not THAT big assumption, as in the original defence document, two or three institutions (from memory) specifically said they were rejecting the offer of 143p. Surely the directors would have reiterated that support (they need all the help they can get!) if it still applied.

It may well be that those institutions are simply waiting to see how the coin spins this time around before coming out one way or the other. After all, those institutions will be only too aware (as ISG admit) that Cathexis holding well over 30% of the company may cause all sorts of difficulties for the business going forward. Other institutions will not been keen of holding shares in such a company.

[qs99] 10/2/2016 19:47

grahamburn that is a big assumption on institutions although I understand your drift but doesn't necessarily mean they have accepted...

[exbroker] 10/2/2016 19:12

If Cathexis get to 50% they will keep it open as it is a Rule 9 so there will be time to accept the offer. If they get to 50% then the dissenting holders will fold and accept.

[grahamburn] 09/2/2016 19:51

At least the rejection document published by ISG provides a much more coherent and detailed rejection of the offer than previous (rather lame) attempts. It shows a notional £69m Value Gap between the directors' potential medium term valuation and Cathexis' offer.

It may well, however, be too little too late as Cathexis hoover up more shares in the market. Similarly, there is a major omission in the latest rejection material; namely, the failure to state that the major institutional shareholders who rejected the original offer are still rejecting the revised offer. It can only be assumed that those institutions have accepted the deal as a fait accompli.

If that is the case, then it's "game over" for the board, though it may make sense for smaller shareholders to hold on until the bitter end. After all, if Cathexis do pass the 50% mark, but not reach the 75%+ level, by 17 February, there will still be a brief period to accept when the offer becomes unconditional.

[nocton] 08/2/2016 16:32

Having just been rung by Cathexis asking how I am going to vote, I think they must be getting desperate.

[ed 123] 08/2/2016 16:09

I've sold in the market too. I think it will go through at 171p but didn't want to take the risk. Always possible that there will a recommendation in return for a higher offer - but with the market moving to discount the next recession I blinked first.

[exbroker] 08/2/2016 16:00

I have sold mine as I dont think this will go through, time will tell

[ed 123] 08/2/2016 15:53

Looking at the wider market (FTSE100 down 135 at 5714), I don't see any need for Cathexis to raise their offer. Surely the institutions will take the cash?

[bouleversee] 04/2/2016 16:24

More of the same in fact. So unless lots of people sell in the market or another bidder comes along, that's that presumably.

[oregano] 04/2/2016 16:15

quite fun this saga. they need to put up a better defence than last time round. hard to see it. i wonder if they still have the support of Octopus etc.

[exbroker] 03/2/2016 09:58

tuscan 4
Hard for the board to prove that life will be better with them given their record, and the absence of a profit forecast. Cathexis called the bigger holders yesterday bidding for stock.

[tuscan4] 03/2/2016 09:25

Signs of desperation from the bidder. Surprisingly little stock being sold in the market and now having to resort to the fact that sellers get their 171p now rather than waiting 14 days after the offer closes(assuming it succeeds). What about broking commission?
ISG need to convey to their shareholders that without this offer they will be materially better off in six months time, both in dividend and capital terms.

[qs99] 01/2/2016 21:04

exbroker, to be fair, yes shares were heading South, but would they really have headed much further? While management IMO have indeed proved themselves to be pretty poor IMO, someone was always IMO going to be looking forward and working out they could run the show better on £1bn order book etc....at such a low capitalisation IMO it looked a no brainer, hence I bought a few! But I am sure others did, on the same basis so heading lower? think that isn't seeing it straight....they weren't going bust...

anyway a nice turn, management may still pull something out of the bag in order to give their recommendation to shareholders, let's see.....otherwise thanks very much, what's next!

[oregano] 01/2/2016 16:51

yes you are right. more buying today, they are likely to get to 50%. with scope for an uplift on recommendation and a dividend, I will be holding on.

[exbroker] 01/2/2016 16:21

oregano you get the 171 if and only if they get to 50%, if you are not sure this is going to happen than sell in the market. I think they will buy more stock over the next few days and the management will give it a recommendation however much it may hurt. When you have someone by the balls their heart and mind soon follows....

[oregano] 01/2/2016 14:24

Exbroker, if you accept you will get your 171p regardless. that is the purpose of this mechanism.

[exbroker] 01/2/2016 13:46

The worse case is if they dont get to 50% then the offer will lapse.