ILX Share Discussion Threads

[markt] 18/1/2012 15:35

ILX on the first page of today's top risers !...yeeha !
(let's ignore that it must have been on yesterday's top fallers page !)
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Quite a few buyers this morning and near the close of play yesterday....much higher than normal for ILX. ...OK, but someone else must have sold...

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....I don't agree completely with the high % of ILX that K.Scott and Jon Pickles 'own'.....(via bonuses...despite shareholders over the last few years losing money...defies logic imho....quite common perhaps..the regulations need changing imo)...

but....

if the share price does ever fall by X %, like yesterday.....it is perhaps good to know that directors have a major interest in the shares and hence interest in the success of the company...no g'tee, but does give them a greater incentive imho...and to take a medium/long term view to growing the company since it will benefit them, and to avoid any stupid risks since would hit value of their shareholding if went wrong...

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....company has reported high growth in sales outside the UK and via the internet...very high growth..(over 200% via internet!) ILX has taken on more staff (costs) for sales and marketing...and opened up other offices (costs) such as for Denmark....
so...
clearly they see strong potential...otherwise they wouldn't increase costs..

how it has actually gone with these initiatives in terms of sales and profits for the whole year....we have to wait to see....(I think at interims sales were up 7%-9%, not massive but part of on-going trend of increasing, better than falling !)....takes time....
for me, the potential is there, and for me at a lowish price..so the risk/reward is quite good from my viewpoint...

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imho ILX is in a fantastic position, yes fantastic...
makes enough profit to invest in product development and bring out new products....and reduce debt..and pay interest costs..and pay high dividend...and pay the one off costs to expand to do marketing abroad (and obtain sales)..and pay high directors wages (too high imho !)....

....so many companies with good products would love to be producing enough sales and profits to be able to fund to market their products in other countries...or invest 400k/year in product development....
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famous last words....hopefully no new RNS to prove me completely wrong !

[markt] 18/1/2012 14:06

illiquid....completely normal imho for a 5-7M cap. company with large % held by few people...like Octupus, 20%.

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Quite a few buys...so nice to see the price back up a bit.

[spaceparallax] 18/1/2012 10:24

this share has sadly always been very illiquid

[shanksaj] 18/1/2012 10:03

Someone else bought 10000 at 23p.

[shanksaj] 18/1/2012 10:00

Just bought 5000 (more) at 21.99p and seems to have changed the share price (singlehanded?) 6.8% yield isn't too bad for a growing company.

[atlantic57] 17/1/2012 20:56

I was considering buying these but todays action has put me off.
The yeild is excellent and the Company appears to be performing well at the operational level.

The balance sheet does look so good when you strip out intangibles.
The lack of liquitity is a major concern

[paleje] 17/1/2012 20:01

Last time we dipped like this was in October, it hit a low around the 10th then a trading update was released and we bounced. Then an RNS was released saying t1ps had increased its holding coincidentally at just about the low point:)

We're about due an update.

[stegrego] 17/1/2012 19:01

Nope, I'd say it's almost certainly due to someone selling 14 grands worth. MMs just won't take any stock in anything at the mo.

[huntie2] 17/1/2012 18:58

hmm...sale of 85000 is only £14ks worth....price has dropped by 14%! think there must be much more to it than that.....fingers crossed for tomorrow....and for when the results are out.... best wishes to all fellow holders1

[markt] 17/1/2012 18:16

looks like 88500 sold at 21p...
ILX is quite illiquid...my guess is that someone wanted the cash quick, a margin call ? or some other reason ?..maybe got an insider whisper on some other share to buy ?!..since if had sold slowly over a week then may not have moved the price down and maybe could have got 24p...

paying around 7% yield at 21p....which is fantastic when banks are paying almost nothing..assuming that continue to pay 1.5p divi as inferred in last results 'maintaining dividend'...

and last results said that confident of solid result for the year..and growth outside UK has been stellar....so I'm still hopeful anyway...

[huntie2] 17/1/2012 16:57

Whats going on here, then?

[markt] 13/1/2012 17:56

In case of interest

New Products according to ILX website....and can be bought on-line..as well as other products

- Elements of Financial Accounting elearning Pack
- Fixed Income Products elearning Pack
- Project Manager's Toolkit
- ISO 20000 Awareness Course

Finance Training products


includes a product
IFRS (International Financial Reporting Standards)...designed by PwC experts (one assumes that PwC also offer it for sale )



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From what I can see.....looks like a solid increase in products available. :-)
(I recall that on-line sales last financial year increased from around 200k I think to over 700k ...big % growth)

[markt] 13/1/2012 15:45

From GCI 21 Dec 2011

"Traditionally second-half-weighted, house broker finnCap predicts 2012 pre-tax profits of £1.7 million and EPS of 4.5p."

So....ILX house broker in GCI note of Dec 2011 was predicting ILX PBT to be 1.7M and EPS of 4.5p. And other analyst had pencilled in 1.8M PBT.
So....at present it looks like the expected PBT numbers are still high.
(I will be very pleased if achieve 1.7 or 1.8M PBT....personally I'd be happy with less...as long as produce an increase on last year's turnover and PBT)
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"Overseas expansion Hammersmith-based ILX Group originally listed as Time2Learn back in 2000, but is now a very different animal. Using a range of software and classroom-based learning, it is a best-practice training company that has trained over 500,000 people across more than 100 countries. ILX is the world's leading provider of PRINCE2 training – a process-based method for project management, which is well regarded and used extensively by UK government.

CEO Ken Scott says, 'We remain very committed to PRINCE2, but are mindful of the ongoing shift to be able to deliver across all digital platforms.' ILX has a diverse customer base of more than 5,000 customers, but with the UK a tough market, it has been seeking international growth. In the six months to September, overseas sales more than doubled to £2.4 million, which translated to a trebling of its profits contribution to £771,000.

Australia has been the real star, though Europe enjoyed 30 per cent growth and the Middle East was up 8 per cent – driven by new contracts in Oman. Overall results revealed a 7 per cent uplift in sales to £5.9 million, as pre-tax profits increased 69 per cent to £115,000.Of more significance, ILX has refinanced its loans and now has a £2 million facility – this will more than halve its interest costs.

The deal with HSBC provides plenty of headroom for organic growth, as well as selected acquisitions. Traditionally second-half-weighted, house broker finnCap predicts 2012 pre-tax profits of £1.7 million and EPS of 4.5p. At 26.5p, the AIM-listed shares are on a grudging rating, while also offering a near 6 per cent yield".

[mike_f] 13/1/2012 15:37

DLM are working alongside Pearson ;)

[markt] 13/1/2012 15:34

"are in a very strong growth industry. I hope for both of us e-learning becomes more and more popular which is seems to be ...".


Got my vote on that one !.....e-learning....tablet and e-book reader sales are rocketing imho (ref. Amazon news, high Kindle sales...Sony brought out tablet product and lots more companies...'cause lots of sales)....lots of competition out there I assume for e-learning (incl the mega monster Pearson) but it is a big sector, room for lots of companies... definitely looks to be a growth sector...imho a hot sector...although the share price of ILX doesn't agree !, low P/E, at the moment...fingers crossed for good future news...

[mike_f] 13/1/2012 13:04

I don't work for DLM no, just been an investor for quite a while. I have seen the company turnaround significantly in the last 2 years. They have gone from getting a CVA agreed to actually turning a profit for the first time in the companies history.

They implemented a restructuring in the 2nd quarter of last year which has put them in a much better position going forward. If the margins stay the same and we generate more revenue we should see far higher profits.

The current financial position (and previous) is not the reason I invested though. I believe the company has a very ambitious but highly achievable ambition with bringing the DLM online. With Andy Hasoon at the helm I believe that the company is going places. He is a well known figure in the e-learning industry as you are probably well aware. The PIXELearning acquisition seems to be a very lucrative one which is already bearing fruit.

The company is at a very early stage in terms of generating significant revenues and profits but we are also capped accordingly. The business model is sound IMO and we are in a very strong growth industry. I hope for both of us e-learning becomes more and more popular which is seems to be and hope that we both do very well with our investments.

Thanks for your thoughts and appreciate your take on things. ATB

[markt] 12/1/2012 20:11

Hi Mike
nice to see another poster ...

....I already know a little about DLM....(obvious to monitor both if own ILX)...
You work for DLM ?

DLM/ex-IHP is much higher risk imho than ILX....since compared with ILX it does not have much steady turnover and profit to support the fixed operating costs including being listed...(whereas ILX has large turnover for e-learning company imo...and reports a profit "after" paying all costs (incl expensive directors imho !) and a high dividend !)...

From memory DLM doesn't have that much cash or real assetts.....and low turnover.....so, imho, I see it as very high risk....so not so interesting to me since personally I wouldn't be willing to risk investing much money ......
(generally I tend to avoid listed companies with cap. values in the region of 1M..unless real NAV supports the share price and that they can afford running costs from income (most can't)....since so many of them go nowhere (eg. Metrodome !) or go bust or keep issuing new shares to stay alive)
(interim results, sales of 579K, and operating loss of 563k . Ouch.
Loss is almost 100% of sales !
And real assetts situation is around 1M negative.

with those numbers I would say it is over priced at 1M cap. value !..with that operating loss and 1M -ve assetts it looks very risky to me ! (No bank will lend them any money imho.....could raise money perhaps by new share issues...but would mean dilution...)
(if the creditor of "trade and other payables" calls in short or long term debt then DLM can't pay....current liability is 789k and only got 220k current assetts !)
(real market value of goodwill or other non-current intangibles...I don't know, but not much use if need to pay "current" liabilities)

and did a cash raising in Nov. and a subsidiary was wound up....

One factor against DLM imho is that it has hundreds of millions of shares and a share price of 0.2p; puts me off...personal preference.
and share price looks to be 1/5th of what it was 1 year ago !!.
Whereas the ILX 12month trend is upwards, with lots of ups and down along the way...much better imho.


Sure they are working hard at DLM, so good luck to them.


DYOR NAG !

[mike_f] 11/1/2012 16:13

Hi markt, I have been keeping an eye on this company for some time. I am invested in DLM (ex IHP) and am looking at the competition they face. ILX are clear competitors. I would appreciate it if you would cast your eye over DLM and see what you think. ILX mcap £6.9M, DLM mcap £0.97M. Your opinion will be much appreciated. ATB

[markt] 03/1/2012 15:43

Following post is a bit of a 'fan-club' post..and a bit long....hope no one minds....

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here's a link in case of use to the last analyst research note...from November
(paid research note I think !...produced by a section of 1 of the large investors in the co. ...so "not" impartial.....but they have to comply with FSA rules I think so can't produce rubbish)



"we are confident the group will generate profit before tax of £1.8 million for the full financial year. We continue to value the company on a conservative 2013 EV/EBITDA multiple of 7 times, which implies a target price of 61.5p."

that analysts expecting 1.8M PBT !
about 1/2M tax (if 26%)...leaves PAT of 1.3M
(can't see it being that high myself...but fingers crossed)

(and the divi costs around 400k ...so I am expecting the same 1.5p/share divi, at least !, perhaps even a symbolic increase, to 1.6p) (if achieved a PAT of 1.3M ...then theoretically a divi of 5p could be supported !...not going to happen, I calculate just to show numbers..would be 20% return..shows how cheap the shares are imho)

with cap. value around 7M it is surely too cheap...4 X the PBT !..but may need the results to be produced or some RNS to hopefully see an share price increase...(next trading update is not expected till 2nd half of April based on previous years)

(that analyst's P/E is around 5-6....at 5 that means 20%..while a bank would give you 2-3% maybe...crazy imho, while noting that shares involve risk hence often 'cheaper'...(but 'risk' of capital growth as well, that bank doesn't provide))

("International Division. Turnover rose 105% to GBP2.429 million" .
"Growth was also strong in Europe at 30%"
"with software making up 67% of International revenues. This software element has increased over the figure for the comparative period (2010: 59%) "

(so, I would guess that there is a largish amount of software (e-learning packages) being delivered in 2nd half...to provide the bump needed in the PBT numbers...eg. NZ contract)
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(there are of course risk factors/-ve factors.......competition....etc etc)

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...just noticed that the analyst has pencilled in 17.5M turnover for 2013...from 12.9M announced in 2011.
40-50% increase !

and 2.1M PBT analysed for 2013 !..from 1.4M PBT in 2011. 50% increase !
27.6M shares...so PBT converts to 7.6p/share

if even produce a part of that ...then surely the share price should respond.
(and looks likely that the cap. value could soon be 1/2 of the turnover....for an e-learning company with global sales..and gross profit around 60%....looks too cheap imho)
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I note that the company is strongly targetting growth....with director added to the board and increase in more marketing costs/staff...without which the interim profit number would have been much higher...

[markt] 03/1/2012 14:53

be very interesting to see what markets do this year....

strong +ve drivers imho (like bank deposit account (interest well below inflation) or house purchase/value are not a good place to get a return....hence making the stocks mkt more attractive in comparison)

and

strong -ve drivers (like the Eurozone being a bit stuffed ! with business down, sovereign debt problems, high street spending problems etc !) imho

(one factor I guess will be the performance of Asian economy.....)

DJIA has blown through resistance today at 12300...(a little bit of 'irrational exuberence' today perhaps !)..showing that the up trend stays intact....but I guess that some news from Euroland could perhaps change that in the future...
FTSE, German and DJIA companies could report OK results for the last few months....but what they may predict for future profits is not so clear at the moment

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(if ILX manages to produces same profit as last year (1M after tax).....then I would hope that the share price is supported....and co. news is that trading is in line with expectations...and expectations were/are for higher profit this year....if produce the 1.4M that was predicted then I would expect a price jump, since 40% profit jump...but whether it will be achieved , have to wait to see, low 1st half profit but RNS says that performing in line....)

ILX on-line sales increased to 0.7M last year....and tablets user numbers rocketing.. the possibilities are there for e-learning and ILX....
but ILX needs to show to the market that it can perform and that the past problems can all be forgotten..

[paleje] 03/1/2012 10:46

Agree with you there markt, annual growth of profits and divis, and if that can do that the share price will adjust accordingly but not dramatically imo, might be a few years before markets return to heady ratings.

[markt] 03/1/2012 09:41

BTW...some background info in case anyone is interested

a number of take over offers going thru in the software/technology sector

- Workplace systems
- Clarity

at around 70-80% premium to share price before the offer....

and Synchronica has just received an approach for takeover offer

perhaps an indicator that some IT/technology companies shares (eg. ILX) are at cheap/low prices...and not overpriced, as was the case in the dot com days of 2000

(for ILX I wouldn't want to see a takeover...but prefer to see X years of increases of 10-20%....much more rewarding imo than any 1 off gain if )

[markt] 28/12/2011 14:07

I see that Sony have a small tablet product now...
and Nokia are stepping up their marketing of new touch screen phones...so I expect they will bring out tablet devices at some time (if not already)

..so the choice of products is always increasing...and performance/prices is falling...and the total number of units sold is always increasing

...all increasing the number of users with tablets....a large potential base of e-learners for ILX....(most are not buyers of current ILX products....but ILX could bring out new products with mass market appeal this year, or next or next...and that ILX customers (often large companies) can see the advantage of learning perhaps being done by staff sitting on the train on the way home...(and/or refresher course or refresher learning games...)

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...Amazon (global I assume not just UK part) has been selling 1 million Kindle units per week...(so market size of people able to learn something while sitting on a bus/train is rocketting....)

"The note appeared to offset Amazon's own announcement that 2011 turned out to be a strong year for its Kindle family of products.

"Throughout December, customers purchased well over 1 million Kindle devices a week," the company said in a release."

[markt] 19/12/2011 11:03

Tablet prices....down a lot I think....and quite a lot of advertising....so hot product of xmas I think......sector of possible learners sitting on trains is expanding rapidly...

0.0000000000000001 using for ilx courses......but good to be connected to an expanding sector

[spaceparallax] 16/12/2011 14:12

The ILX share price has long been on a modest PER - current general economic gloom in the mkts exacerbates that problem. Only time and a consistent demonstration of new found success is likely to persuade the Mkt that ILx's problems of the past are over IMHO.

Like many smallcaps there is tremendous potential, but canny investors are understandably minimising risk by choosing those most capable of realisation.