||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|Nonequity Investment Instruments
Real-Time news about Helphire Grp. (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|simon templar qc: ant15,
I agree its a completely different company now and the fundamentals much stronger now its got cash and strongly cash generative. Its ludicrous the share price being so low on forecast yield. You would normally see a high yield stock at risk as a dividend may be cut but here we have the company about to generate good cash they want to pay some of it back in dividends. After consolidation I would hope to see a stronger share price.|
|simon templar qc: bc4
Prospective dividend yield over 10% on current share price, that implies there is ample upside on yield alone. If the share price doubled the prospectus yield would still be 5%.
With strong cash generation I see no problem on forecast yield.|
|simon templar qc: Have read Singer brokers forecasts and here are the highlights:
41.7% upside and estimate dividend yield of 8.2% FY14
Generated underlying cash of £8.5 million in Q3
PBT upgraded forecasts
2014 + 12% to £10.9m eps 0.50 up 24%!
Upgrade final dividend to 0.29p bringing FY 14 dps to 0.5p 19%
FY 14 net cash to £33,7 million (£26.4 million)
Brokers looking for DPS of 0.7P in 2016
Overall view with 40% upside on share price this is a good yielding stock. I expect the share price to motor forward soon.|
|bains123: Posted on lse:
Helphire (HHR.L) announced on Thursday that they had agreed terms to acquire the New Law group of companies for a cash consideration of £24.5m plus up to £10.5m in HHR shares, subject to achievement of EBITDA targets for 2013 and 2014. This strategic acquisition strengthens Helphire's market position in terms of vertical integration and extended reach while also enhancing earnings the acquisition adds £7m pre-tax profits on sales of £29.4m. Having raised £60m for strategic growth in December 2013, it is clear that further earnings enhancing acquisitions are likely to follow.
Alongside details of the acquisition, Helphire also announced interim results for the half year ended 31st December 2013 and a third interim dividend of 0.054p per share. The interim results showed increased pre-tax profits of £4.2m on revenues of £92.3m. These revenues were down 16% year-on-year and this was attributed to the ban on referral fees for personal injury claims from 1st April 2013. Clearly HHR leadership anticipated the shifting landscape of their sector and have taken measures to protect and grow the overall business, not least through their acquisition strategy.
There has been a somewhat mooted response to this news with a slight softening of the share price. It is difficult to understand why other than the "buy on rumour, sell on news" mindset. As things currently stand, the new enlarged group should have annual profits of around £15-16m against a market capitalisation of c£180m with significant tax losses to carry forward. With a further £35m in cash to make further earnings enhancing acquisitions and a prospective yield of over 5%, I believe it is only a matter of time before the shares are re-rated. In the meantime, the progressive dividend policy and the prospect of a special dividend from a potential litigation settlement makes it fairly easy for investors to be patient.|
|knigel: 20p? LOL the shares would be on a PE of 40! Granted there may be an earning enhancing acquisition around the corner but in the last year (from memory) the share price has moved from the 2.5p area to the 5.5p area. So presuming the same for 2014 then perhaps a 9-10p share price is possible. It depends on how the company uses the new funds (remember 2.7 billion shares in issue now) and how much the Autofocus windfall is. Why do people keep suggesting very high share price targets - without giving any substance?|
|knigel: Agree quite a few will be investing next week for the dividend so perhaps 7p will be breached... I cannot see 30-40p for a long time - just a gradual upwards movement in the share price of several pence each year while in this recovery cycle... so doubling profits now would equal 1p eps and perhaps a 12p share price by this time next year.. this is a buy but the share price has already done very well and the next decent re-rate will probably be November on a decent IMS (not sure being on AIM means HHR will issue an update) or news at last on Autofocus.
I think QPP will buy NARS and HHR is now becoming quite a large company and perhaps too big for them to be willing to issue significant new shares to take over HHR - could they on competition grounds anyway if they buy NARS?|
|djinvestments: Knigel, (and perhaps steve global can add some insight into his estimates of market cap) its true we have seen recent consolidation around the current share price ahead of the results which coincides with a PE of 10 at 8 million profit.
Personally I prefer EV multiples or ratios or even dividend based measures for a company where cash generation significantly outweighs reported profits- in this case these give higher potential market caps. my opinion is that historically the market has done the same, however that does not mean that they still do and it is useful to have a discussion of potential market cap around PE multiples. After this week your estimate will be a backward looking estimate and we will need to recalculate PE on forward PE multiple.
We know the markets (and us investors) are forward looking, there are therefore a few things in HHRs favour when looking at future market cap. if the market is buying in an expected PE of 10 (on adjusted profit?) at these results, after the results it will look forward to estimate at interim and full year for the next financial year. we have an immediate uplift as the second half of last year will show greater profit than the first half, giving an indication of trading performance for the next year. in addition, we only have about a quarter without interest on debt payments. this means that the increased profit in second half will be weighted to the final quarter. with this and a positive trading update statement we may expect an uprating. I also think that if the market gains confidence in HHR with continued improving results and good dividends then PE multiples could the stretched out to above 12. All in all we need to pay attention to the rate of increase in profit rather than just the profit number. I still maintain that any autofocus settlement will give a short term boost to the share price if it is paid as a dividend, or if it remains on the balance sheet will increase EV and will therefore affect long term share price.
Given this, I really don't understand your last post steve global, could you give us an insight into your market cap calculations?|
|djinvestments: The autofocus compensation is certainly important in my reckoning for this share and speculation around it will drive short term share price at times. The share price will also be affected short term when an announcement of its size and payment schedule are announced. I am expecting it to be paid out to shareholders as a special dividend. However I don't expect it to feature in the full year results next week and don't expect much extra info about it. It also doesn't affect the longer term potential market cap of HHR other than the whole thing has probably led to HHR getting better rates from insurance companies than they would have done before the fraud was discovered which should lead to better margins.
I do hope to see more info on the alternative business model, and the potential additional revenue streams have the potential to drive growth, increase profit and increase longer term market cap.
for me there are two sides to HHR as an investment, the first is short term share price rises along with extra dividends, the second is longer term growth to fill its current potential market cap which I expect to also grow. The added benefit of regular generous dividends also helps this. I effectively currently have HHR in both my short term and long term portfolios.|
|lord orphan: For Nicky Name and others interested in comparing HHR and QPP. QPP announced a H1 trading update this morning. Adjusted Ebitda for the trailing 12 months is now £91.2m (that's £54m for H1 and £37.2m for H2 last year). Net debt is £14m and the equity value is £483m (4.3bn shares at 11.2p). Therefore the enterprise value(EV) is £497m and EV/Ebitda multiple is 5.45x.
At a share price of 4.4p HHR's EV is about £66m and the EV/Ebitda multiple is about 2.6x. (see my earlier post re-tweeted by steamy at 3747.
So QPP is on more than twice HHR's rating, presumably justified by the better growth prospects.
Interestingly QPP's numbers now look very similar in scale to HHR's June 2008 numbers e.g. c £400m revenue, Ebitda £90-100m, launching overseas, with full-service aspirations in the UK. However HHR had much more debt, over £300m then including fleet debt, which almost killed it when the financial crisis hit.
HHR managed to get to a 10x EV/Ebitda rating based on peak share price of 450p and peak ebitda of £98m. On the same rating QPP shares would be about 21p.|
|lord orphan: HHR share price will soon be higher than QPP's.|
Helphire Grp. share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange