Gw Pharmaceuticals Share Discussion Threads

[randompoint] 08/9/2016 13:10

$250 for the ADR, Altom.

A chunky premium, which is not uncommon in this sector, helps keep the troops and the generals happy.

My instinct is that there's no rush. Let's see.

[altom] 08/9/2016 12:45

WengerB.
$250 is in region of £150 (not £15.50)
I hope that £15.5 is the typo !!! If only ! Not that £15.5 is to be sniffed at. 3x current price.

[wengerb] 08/9/2016 10:09

RP. I'm sure that the management wouldn't want to sell but the matter is not entirely in their hands. The directors work for the shareholders and are bound to do what the shareholders decide.

I expect an announcement later today from the board that should illuminate things a little. If enough institutions would resist a low offer then the company is safe from a premature takeover. A rough calculation seems to me to show that the director/shareholders (principally G and W) along with the top 5 institutions own about 50% of the equity. Solidarity among this group is probably enough to withstand an offer at the current price or even somewhat higher.

A French diplomat stationed abroad once cabled back to the Quai d'Orsay "Every man has his price and they're getting very close to mine".

My price? With analysts' price targets averaging around $150, I feel that $250
(£15.50) would be a minimum acceptable acquisition price.

This flurry of interest puts into sharper focus the second PIII L-GS trial data due out before the end of the month. There's a general expectation that the data will be positive. If that plays out then the company would be all set to go with its New Drug Application next Spring so that event later this month should add value over and above where the company stands today.

[randompoint] 08/9/2016 09:28

Can't see why management would want to sell.

[neilrr] 07/9/2016 21:02

On NASDAQ GWPH closed up 23.85%, up $20.089 to $104.28.

[samurai48] 31/8/2016 18:07

Thank you Masingi for the deeply insightful explanation of the issues and dilemmas of being on the Autistic Spectrum.

I think that society needs the genius of autistic people and should act to adapt to them rather than the other way around.

S

[masingi] 31/8/2016 09:24

Hi Sojourno, Those of us on the spectrum have a different neurology. Our brains are wired differently to the majority of the population that have a more typical neurology. There are a number of factors that will affect what someone with an autistic spectrum neurology can get out of life.
For me, fitting in -pretending to be normal- is always an effort, it's tiring and I'm far from perfect in my technique. It's something people not on the spectrum just do instinctively. It's those people that are not on the spectrum that I need to fit in with in order to function in society.
The following factors apply:
Do I want to fit in with society, or am I happier in my own company and my own world?
If I do want to fit in with society, do I have the fortitude to bear the effort required?
If I do want to fit in with society and I have the fortitude, do I have the mental capacity to develop and employ effective coping mechanisms?
If I do want to fit in with society and I have the fortitude and I have the mental capacity, do I have the emotional stamina to bear the inevitable knock-backs and hurt when technique fails and my disguise slips?

How much of a 'disorder' you have depends on how you answer those questions. The underlying condition is the same.

It's not easy being green.

I also stuffed up my 'A' Levels (two 'E' grades), still ended up with a PhD from Cambridge. Adolescence is a particularly difficult time anyway and what with trying to rapidly develop coping strategies to deal with it, schoolwork suffered.

[sojourno] 30/8/2016 23:25

My nephew is autistic. He totally screwed-up his GCSEs last time around but got an impressive array of A's and B's this time. Thrilled.

Neurological diversity is a characteristic of the human race. Autism is a spectrum condition and only becomes a "disorder" (medical label) when a certain number of qualifying criteria are met. Almost everyone is on the spectrum to varying degrees, some only when they're extremely tired but many of us are fairly autistic when we are tired.

If GWP want knowledge of autism my sister is an expert and quite involved.
Or start by researching this lady:-

[arnu gutierrez] 27/8/2016 06:50

Potential reaction to analysts' perspective on shares of GW Pharmaceuticals (GWP)

[masingi] 26/8/2016 14:43

Wenger- No offence taken or intended, it's just my observation of the condition.

Future Financier- Coping mechanisms are essential for anyone on the spectrum if they wish to interact with society and deal with the inevitable anxiety, frustration and emotional turmoil that comes with such interaction.
For myself, I have developed a number of personal strategies over the years (without knowing I was doing so), which I now combine with CBT and Mindfulness to great effect. I am also blessed with a supportive family and friends that are accepting of my quirkiness. The trick is to be equally accepting of what seems to me to be the bizarre and irritating behaviour of my fellow humans. The only drugs I have found to make such irritating people appear less so for a while are fine ales, malt whisky and good rum; but they must be used in moderation. What I would really like is a drug that prevents people from being irritating, then I would't get wound-up in the first place and wouldn't need my coping mechanisms.

[wengerb] 26/8/2016 14:25

FF. Thank you for that very helpful insight into the problems of an adult with ASD (or ASN). I've never had direct experience of anyone, child or adult, with ASD so my view is perhaps the more common one of children with severe communications difficulties and sometimes extreme behavioural patterns.

This is a long and technical article but I thought that if ASD is to feature large in GWP's development of CBDV, it might be interesting to have even a basic insight into the great complexities of the condition:

[future financier] 26/8/2016 11:06

masingi - I certainly know of someone on the ASD spectrum who desperately needs something that would enable him to enjoy life - not seeking a "cure" just something that will reduce the predominant mood of anger (leading to extreme violence to third parties and self harm) - and if Epidiolex does offer this possibility that would be a near miracle. Unfortunately for many people, ASD quite clearly is a disorder that would benefit from treatment, not just a sociological condition.

[wengerb] 26/8/2016 10:28

masingi. I was simply using the label that GWP attaches to the condition that they intend to pursue with Epidiolex. If the pursuit proves successful then everyone will be a winner. I'll be curious, as I assume so will you, as to how GWP defines the patient population and which end points will be used.

[masingi] 26/8/2016 09:41

Hi Wenger,
I don't perceive my Autistic Spectrum Disorder to be a disorder at all. It may be better described as an Autistic Spectrum Neurology, which is more of a difference than a disorder. The only problem is that the population for some reason is dominated by a single neurological type, and this dictates the rules of social interaction. People with an Autistic Spectrum Neurology must fit in with social rules required for a neuro-typical dominated society to function. This isn't easy, it's like trying to muddle through in an alien culture, but it is more of a sociological problem than a medical one.

[wengerb] 25/8/2016 23:10

My outsider is something on Epidiolex and autism spectrum disorder.

[ih_406638] 25/8/2016 15:40

Well ok, let's guess what might be up Justin's sleeve. Another epilepsy condition, or maybe two because one would not be enough for an entire presentation. Also perhaps an update of the timeline post NDA meeting

[randompoint] 25/8/2016 15:08

Thanks Wenger.

[wengerb] 25/8/2016 11:46

I was away for a few weeks but I looked at the board from time to time and only nodding seemed to be trying to blow on the embers to keep it going.

Today's price fall pretty much exactly follows the decline in the Nasdaq Biotechnology Index late on in yesterday's trading in the US. The fall occurred after Hillary Clinton renewed her attack on US drug prices.

I thought I'd look at what news events we have left in 2016.

1. The second p3 trial on Lennox-Gastaut syndrome patients is due to report before the end of September. It'll be both astonishing and fairly disastrous if the results aren't good. This p3 is very much like the first p3 trial on L-GS except that it has two different dose levels

If the data are good I'd expect some positive share price reaction as this would complete the set of three p3 trials that the company needs to submit its NDA to the FDA.

2. In Q4 we'll see the data from a small p2 trial on an agressive form of brain cancer (glioblastoma multiforme aka glioma). A positive outcome in such trials is an extension of life expectancy. I'd love this data to be positive but I think it might be difficult to show such an effect with a very aggressive condition and such a small sample size but fingers crossed.

3. In Q4 we'll also see the data from a trial on patients aged 8-18 with cerebral palsy. I believe the sample size is 72. The drug in question is Sativex. The US clinical trials website has the details:

I have no feeling whatsoever whether this is expected to be a successful trial or not or how much weight GWP gives to the potential for Sativex for CP. If the trial is successful then GWP would have to run more p3 trials in the US and it would be a pretty lengthy route to market.

4. The American Epilepsy Society annual meeting is in Houston from 1-6 December. Epidiolex will be all over this meeting with three sets of p3 data to present.

5. Finally there's a date that intrigues me. As part of the recent Q3 results webcast, Justin Gover announced that there would be "an investor event on Monday 5th December". I can't imagine that it would simply repeat the Epidiolex/epilepsy data that all the analysts would already know backwards so I'm hoping that Justin may have some additional stuff up his sleave.

[ih_406638] 06/8/2016 07:19

Something to read whilst waiting for the quarterly results -

[randb01] 27/7/2016 17:13

In passing:

I note that the Italian government is struggling to come up with a suitable strain of cannabis for the sufferers of MS and chemo (Times 26/7). It would appear that they have outsourced this problem to the Italian Army!

Perhaps it would be fruitful if one of our super european agency sales force knock on the door of the Generalissimo I.C. (not between the hours of noon - 4pm please) to acquaint them with our expertise in this connection. Arrivederci!!

[etarip] 18/7/2016 15:30

nodding:

Yes, I can see it across Mounts Bay from the windows of my house.