Gw Pharmaceuticals Share Discussion Threads

[ih_406638] 27/6/2016 14:15

See that BNY Mellon reduced its holding last week. Oh dear.

There are a couple of docotrs in today's result RNS who are quoted saying what a good thing the result is etc. This means that GW must have given them insider information prior to issuing the RNS. This is not allowed per AIM rules, and probably not per Nasdaq either.

[masingi] 27/6/2016 12:16

And the results are in!

[samurai48] 25/6/2016 16:31

Well, if GWP are to keep their long trailed promise of results in June from the fist stage 3 Lennox Gastau clinical trial they should be published next week.

Hope any Black Swans stay well away.

S

[wengerb] 24/6/2016 13:44

I'm not sure that being within or without the EU makes much difference to GWP's prospects for successfully marketing Epidiolex, and any subsequent new products, in Europe. GWP will apply for an approval to the European Medicines Agency and if successful the company will have to negotiate a price with each member country. The same principle would apply to a drug company from an EU country.

The EMA is based at Canary Wharf but is not, as far as I know, and EU institution and thus may well stay in London.

[sojourno] 24/6/2016 11:47

masingi... I'm at risk of countering you with a fallacy, but I don't think that means GW wanted a Brexit!
It's essentially a US company now. It may improving pricing but I'm not sure about universal prescribing. Can anyone/Co clarify?

neilrr... The vote has stimulated a Black Swan event. Global markets are crashing (it's that big a mistake!) Hedge? Maybe. It'll even out though by the time GW actually turns a significant profit.

[masingi] 24/6/2016 09:24

Sojourno, I don't think the UKs departure from the EU will have much significance for GWP, by the time it comes in any issues will have been managed out. That's even if the EU still exists in its current form, of course.

[masingi] 24/6/2016 08:41

neilrr I'm expecting shares like GWP quoted in both US and UK to be a hedge against the pound sliding against the dollar in event of Brexit. Of course the US stock market is going to be bouncy after a Brexit, anyway.

[neilrr] 24/6/2016 06:48

With the 10% fall in Sterling against the USD$ after the Brexit result will GWP go up 10%?

[sojourno] 23/6/2016 20:05

GW won't want a Brexit. At least part of their business model is based on being part of the EU even if they are very capable of marketing outside of it. The share price would only inflate if everything else does as well.

[sojourno] 23/6/2016 20:01

Am I reading this right? (for once!)


...The class action against GW appears to be have been dismissed and terminated on Monday.

[nodding] 22/6/2016 11:59

Thanks Wenger. No doubt it was the quality and quantity of GW’s safety data that persuaded the FDA to allow GW to go straight to phase III with IS.

You don’t happen to know if Justin is a player of Go? Perhaps he is a fan of American football, with all that blocking...

[wengerb] 22/6/2016 09:27

More to lessen nodding's anxiety about Insys:

"Matteis noted, “The announcement of a new indication is not entirely unexpected, though the timing is somewhat of a surprise as investors are anticipating data from the ph3 Lennox Gastaut Syndrome (LGS) study that could emerge any day (June guidance reiterated this morning). Recall that competitor INSY has noted IS as a potential path to market for its synthetic cannabidiol; INSY is currently running a small phase II study (N=20) that is slated to read out in July.”

“On an indication-by-indication basis, based on the Orphan Drug Act, we believe each company’s cannabidiol formulation – with identical active moieties – would be deemed functionally the same. Thus, should GWPH emerge as the leader (which seems possible given multiple advantages outlined below), we believe INSY would need to find a new indication that is not one of the 4 (Dravet, LGS, Tuberous Sclerosis Complex and now IS) in late stage development for Epidiolex,” the analyst continued."

I don't have access to the "multiple advantages outlined below".

[temmujin] 22/6/2016 07:38

Morning guys...just found out its my thread...long time no see

[neilrr] 21/6/2016 23:49

HTTp://www.smarteranalyst.com/2016/06/21/heres-leerink-analysts-reiterated-outperform-ratings-gilead-sciences-inc-gild-gw-pharmaceuticals-plc-gwph/

Here’s Why Leerink Reiterated Outperform on Gilead Sciences, Inc. (GILD) and GW Pharmaceuticals PLC (GWPH)

GW Pharmaceuticals PLC

Leerink analyst Paul Matteis reiterated an Outperform rating on shares of GW Pharma, with a price target of $130, after the company said that it has been granted an orphan drug designation for its key treatment epidiolex for the treatment of infantile spasms. The company expects to begin a two-part phase III study in this indication in the fourth quarter of 2016.....

[randompoint] 20/6/2016 11:20

I'm extremely nervous.

[wengerb] 17/6/2016 16:37

Only nine shopping days to Christmas, as it were.

[nodding] 14/6/2016 14:50

If Brexit does cause Stirling to fall by 30% against the Dollar, as some have forecast, then per my scribblings that would move the price to 717p. Vote to leave!

[wengerb] 13/6/2016 13:10

Insys may find it tricky to fund its CBD clinical trial programme:

[randompoint] 09/6/2016 11:35

Assuming the results are good, always nice to put out a buy just before it pops up? Or is that too cynical...

[nodding] 09/6/2016 10:47

Cheers Random. It makes you wonder why they bother when we are so close to the LGS result.

[randompoint] 09/6/2016 09:38

Thx. Will listen. New undramatic note from Edison.

Valuation: £1.50bn (572p/share) ahead of catalysts
Our valuation is now £1.50bn (572p/share) vs £1.35bn (517p/share) after increasing the probability of success for Epidiolex in Dravet to 90% from 70% following the successful Phase III trial. Also, the probability of success of TSC has been increased from 30% to 60% following the Dravet results and the initiation of the Phase III trial. These changes on valuation were mitigated somewhat by an increase in R&D and SG&A estimates. We now estimate profitability in 2019 (previously 2018) with a total cash burn of around £160m until then. We estimate that GW has enough cash to achieve its goals without additional capital.

And also:

If we were to increase the probability of success of LGS from the current 70% to 90%, our valuation would increase to £1.81bn (692p/share).

[wengerb] 08/6/2016 21:20

Really nice presentation Justin made at the Goldman conference.

A man at the top of his game fronting up a company with very great potential.