Gw Pharmaceuticals Share Discussion Threads

[ih_406638] 03/6/2016 09:26

The lesson from history is that broker target prices are attained. Not in the short term perhaps, but they do get there eventually.

[doc robinson] 03/6/2016 08:37

Great target price a lot more upside it would suggest could hit £ 10.00 .

[ih_406638] 03/6/2016 08:04

Broker update -



$181

[nodding] 02/6/2016 14:54

The UK price is ahead of the Nasdaq price, which a rare sight.

[ih_406638] 02/6/2016 08:36

I think that the future movements of the share price will be tied to news about Epidiolex, ie more of the same! So, the "anticipated newsflow" which is here at page 22 -



should be a guide.

If I recall correctly, launch of Epidiolex will be in Q1 18, so presumably FDA approval will be announced sometime in Q4 17.

[future financier] 02/6/2016 08:25

Based on that timing masingi - could you please tell me when you sell next time. And then again when you buy back in. I might want to follow you!

[masingi] 01/6/2016 21:29

I sold a bit before £7 when the poor cancer pain data came in. Watched it wander up slightly and then retrace all the way back down. It was a news-driven sale. It was ludicrously oversold, but I waited until the results came out saying everything was as expected, no news here, move along, and then bought back in at about £2.50. Just lucky, I guess.

I believe, unless there is news, it will start to retrace at around £7. A self-fulfilling chartists prophecy. The danger in selling between £7 and whenever, is the possibility of missing the boat when the news comes in.

[neilrr] 01/6/2016 20:44

Resaon for my question in 8607 is because the last 2 times it hit 7 quid I sat on my hands & watched it drop, the last time all the way down to about £2 before the good Epi results. If I'd sold & bought back in pretty much anytime after £7 I'd have the same amount of £$£$£$ in GWP but I'd own a lot more shares.

The fear of missing the next big push on to £10 or more has induced paralysis.

[ih_406638] 01/6/2016 10:50

Cheers Wenger. I like all those figures

[wengerb] 01/6/2016 10:17

The highest price target around at the moment is the $172 made by the analyst at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, Tazeen Ahmad.

Her current assumptions I believe are a 60% probability of approval for Dravet and a 40% figure for Lennox-Gastaut.

After the first Dravet p3 data she moved her Dravet probability from 40 to 60 and her PT from $150 to $172 so I assume that she'll do the same for L-G if the L-G p3 is clearly positive.

As the L-G market is more numerous my guess is that she'll move from $172 to around $210 (£12).

As to price, quite a while ago someone at GWP suggested a price in "the low tens of thousands" for the average annual dosage. At the AGM it was pointed out to me that the important number would be the average revenue per patient and that would be less than the overt price because the payers would negotiate.

For my pie in the sky guesses I use $20,000 or $25,000, depending how bullish I'm feeling.

[ih_406638] 01/6/2016 08:52

For some time analyst price targets have been mostly $130+, which is about £7+. If (and that’s a small "if") the LGS result is good then the chances of approval will be much enhanced and the analysts will rework their targets and find something higher than £7. So, when we do get to £7 the answer to neilrr’s question must be: don’t sell if you don’t need to.

And see Wenger’s post 8439.

I would like to have a stab at doing my own price target but the problem is the sale price of Epidiolex, which has been postulated at various amounts between $10k - $35k

[masingi] 31/5/2016 17:30

Neilrr:

Have a cup of tea!

[etarip] 31/5/2016 17:24

neilrr:

Most of us on this board have been here for so long I guess at £7 we just stay as we are.

[neilrr] 31/5/2016 16:04

What do we do when it hits £7?

[masingi] 31/5/2016 15:10

It seems the Americans read more tea-leaves than the Brits.

[nodding] 31/5/2016 15:04

Tea leaves are good enough for me. Thanks

[masingi] 31/5/2016 15:02

That's the break-out from the Pennant formation. The actual break-out signal was the volume spike on the 9th. According to Pennant-Theory it should continue on the upward trend until it reaches £7.00.

That's what the tea-leaves say, although I haven't backed this up with an examination of chicken entrails, yet.

[nodding] 31/5/2016 14:49

Is that the end of the cup and handle that could have formed, but didn't?

[randompoint] 23/5/2016 09:14

Ignore - I wrote a post in error.

[etarip] 17/5/2016 23:20

neilrr

Thanks for the tip. Now done.

[neilrr] 17/5/2016 16:11

On ADVFN if you capitalise the 'http' bit of any URL it makes any link live.

HTH.

[randompoint] 16/5/2016 12:55

Thanks Neil