Global Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[jimarilo] 07/9/2018 13:18

Don't like posting email replies, however, without naming....here is the jist from a Namibian player and probably applies to a few others as well

There is now increased interest in Namibia from oil and gas companies due to the good commercial terms and positive results of the HRT wells

We are reviewing several new opportunities in Namibia. Success at C1 will reduce the geological risk on some of these opportunities but make them more expensive.

We want to be early in frontier regions so that we are not paying a premium.

The second reply I got this week asking if we were due an announcement before C1 results,

We are reviewing a number of opportunities in Namibia and would announce any new investments by press release

No idea what opportunities they are looking at, but would be surprised if Gemsbok was not on the list

Combined with the Stellar mandate, it does seem possible GBP are close to a deal

[jimarilo] 07/9/2018 11:36

Over 2m traded in one morning, when does that ever happen here ?

[fillipe] 07/9/2018 09:28

What is also very significant today, is that each buy is giving quite a firm upward stride to the ask.

Premiums paid to the best ask for even modestly larger amounts.

Looks like a possible move towards action stations....

f

[jimarilo] 07/9/2018 09:16

From 2017

“Global Petroleum’s technical team is both intrigued and highly encouraged by its recent work which has confirmed the Gemsbok prospect, a structural closure extending over 200 square kms. It is unusual to identify such a large, robust structure at prospective depths which does not rely on stratigraphic trapping” it stated.

On Wednesday, Global Petroleum stated “Management believes that the new information has significantly improved the prospectivity across block PEL 0029 in general and the Gemsbok prospect in particular. Better imaging from the new 2D data reveals that the known source rock intervals are likely to be within the oil generative window and this, combined with data showing repeating oil seeps along the faulted flanks of Gemsbok, has greatly improved the chance of a major oil discovery. Gemsbok remains the Company’s primary exploration target.”

[jimarilo] 07/9/2018 09:10

That won't matter if we are taken out, but adds value to any deal

Players looking to get an opportunity ahead of the C1 result, as per a reply from AEC. ECO said in a reply, there will be corporate activity heading into the up coming wells

The rig workers will no around 25 days if they are in the right ball park. That leaves a window within around 2 weeks to close a deal or potentially pay a premium

Combined with the mandate being removed from the Stellar website and renewed interest reported since the industry presentation in May, it all points to some sort of end game in sight imo

[sawney] 07/9/2018 08:47

I occasionally look in to see what's going on...it's a bit like being in a time warp...we'll all be long gone before they drill anything offshore Italy, in fact I'd be surprised if they get round to doing any seismic...

[jimarilo] 06/9/2018 22:06

On current rates 3D + 1 well = $40m ?

Or take out GBP $28m (£20m/10p)+3D+1 well = $68m and farm down 40/50%

The initial cost of the last well to be drill in Namibia was $95m by Repsol. Its the heavily discounted deepwater rig rates that has reignited the interest

I expect Exxon, have a few more moves to make before they have enough interest

We'll see

[emptyend] 06/9/2018 19:09

I don't think they will farmout just for 3D (unless to a services company looking for an equity stake). It would either be for 3D +1 well or a clean sale, I think.Don't overlook the Italian position either. It isn't valueless.

[joestalin] 06/9/2018 17:18

Or it may be dog.....

[encarter] 06/9/2018 16:22

It's not a pony it's a goose and it may be about to lay a golden egg.

[jimarilo] 06/9/2018 16:12

A confident someone had a nice little buying spell earlier and has brought some attention it seems

Be interesting if they have another go tomorrow

[jimarilo] 06/9/2018 15:59

How many tricks do you need if the one you have happens to be a multi billion barrel prospect and of course hopefully we will have news regarding the Italian blocks next month

There are industry players intent on making corporate moves ahead of the Cormorant result, as confirm to me by one in particular

The fact that stellar have removed the GBP mandate from their website "may" be a result of a select few that are in play regarding a deal with GBP

Of course this could be wrong, but that's the way I see it

I don't think any regulars here have posted outlandish predictions price wise, between 8p-10p seems fair

Regarding dumping shares, I have sold some shares a while back out of a regular dealing account, only to bring them back into a second ISA account. (which I highlighted at the time)

[cashandcard] 06/9/2018 15:56

ohisay,


There will still be interest but, as you allude to, it may well be on poorer terms than if done now. Its the risk smallcaps must run I'm afraid. Either that or the ultimate prospect of having it funded internally, likely via dilution, then moving to the next stage of the project with the majority interest in the license intact.


Cash

[ohisay] 06/9/2018 15:46

If regional operators fail to deliver with the drillbit, then proceed with the planned 3D farmout.

You think this is going to be easier after failure than before failure ??????

[cashandcard] 06/9/2018 15:25

I have to agree with ee's post. They are effectively a one trick pony without enough to get 3D done themselves. However, there is merit to the license and the subsurface work they have done so far. At this stage, they are a high-risk/high-reward punt. But as we see in this industry, things can change overnight if others in the region demonstrate success.

I do think GBP will have to give a lot away in order to get 3D done. This is how I would play it;

1) If regional operators fail to deliver with the drillbit, then proceed with the planned 3D farmout.
2) If regional operators deliver with the drillbit, there will be some value read-across to other license holders in Namibia inc. GBP. Then go and raise funds via dilution or get a cornerstone investor.



Cash

[emptyend] 06/9/2018 09:48

Proximity is always rather over-rated as a factor.....and GBP's blocks are quite a distance away even from the well now being drilled...........but at least it is closer than many other wells - and having a closer source proven will derisk that element for Gemsbok. Perhaps the risking might move up to 18-20%.....enough to justify someone coming in to shoot 3D, at least.It is an important well for the basin as a whole too.....and will likely send everyone back to have a fresh look at their data and prospects. And who knows where that might lead?

[superg1] 06/9/2018 09:28

Jim

You were on Eco

Sadly this reads like a typical oil junk pump and dump because it's cheap and few can be kidded into taking the share price up.

12a and 12B are part of the Tullow area as I understand it African Oil are in on the lease with Tullow. As I said GBP are about 100 miles or more off the West side.

Exxon are below Tullow, There are a number of leases that abut the Tullow and Exxon (farmed in lease). GBP is not one of them.

So what caused Exxon to Farm in below Tullow. If they do find oil there the leases it affects most is surely those next to them not the many further away.

African oil do a nice map which points to where all the action is but they are not 'next' to it.

[jimarilo] 06/9/2018 08:44

Oh dear its the newbie from the ECO bb

Always a good sign

[joestalin] 06/9/2018 08:38

Any pumping is not going very well. share price is near to how it started the year.

[superg1] 06/9/2018 08:02

Jim

Are you not overstating it a bit here.

The GBP lease seems to be a 100 miles or more from where Tullow are drilling, useful for a pump and dump situation but in reality there are a load of leases right next to Tullow and surrounding Exxon that abut them. Exxon have farmed in immediately below the Tullow block

So why would they take a 100 mile jump and ignore all that around them.

A few tipped GBP, I've had a look and on the Namibia bit it looks like a typical pump on Namibia news because it's cheap and see how how high we the price can be taken for a the dump.

[emptyend] 05/9/2018 22:26

It depends, chopsy. Dry dry dry well with no source would be negative. A breached seal, poor reservoir etc would be neutral.

[jimarilo] 05/9/2018 18:20

We are not the only ones, down day across the board, not company specific

Tomorrow is another day ;-)

[winnet] 05/9/2018 14:18

well, back to where we were a few weeks ago...

[chopsy] 05/9/2018 09:57

Thx, that's v clear!