Fiberweb Share Discussion Threads

[bearbully80] 18/9/2013 19:09

jeffian - that 35% of shares comes from less than 15 shareholders. PGI need 50% of shareholders to say yes.
ex-div is 25 Sept.

so all investments you make are guaranteed to go up 1% in 4 days, with a real possibility of a lot more - then you are a very special one and may the force be with you!

[jeffian] 18/9/2013 19:01

The bid is 103.2 including a 1.2p divi so it's all in the price less the divi for which you would have to hold until 27 September. The odds on a higher bidder coming in when 35% of shares are already irrevocably committed are very long indeed, so this is all about a measly 1p or so. In this market, you should be able to make that back in 5 mins!

[bearbully80] 18/9/2013 18:43

dear jeffian,

if you had said, "but Blackstone may yet pull out and we could lose 20%", then I would understand your argument for selling, immediately, at 102.5p, while they can get it.

but with 1% more than that all but guaranteed if you hold for only 4 more business days, and anything form 15-50% upside in the unlikely, but not impossible bidding war scenario (especially after today's brilliant USA housing starts stats) or if Blackstone forced to increase bid or...

is there a better and easier investment decision available in the whole world?

dyor, but personally it sounds like a no-brainer to hold now you've finally got to this juncture. still, for sure some people will take the money as there is no investment decision totally free of risk.

[bearbully80] 18/9/2013 18:18

bad news for anybody looking to pick up Fiberweb on the cheap, but great news for Fiberweb and its shareholders!

this news just announced might finally convince other companies looking to dominate the lucrative and fast recovering north american house-wrap market:
"Groundbreaking for U.S. single-family homes rose in August and permits for future construction hit a five-year high, pointing to resilience in the housing market recovery in the face of higher mortgage rates."

"permits for future construction hit a five-year high" - that's the most important bit. the future is looking very rosy for Fiberweb; they just need to work on improving margins a little as the improved sales revenues is already looking a slam-dunk! May we dream of 320m sales for Fiberweb this year, with 15m profit? PGI probably does, and then some ;-)

[jeffian] 18/9/2013 18:15

bearbully,

It's almost certainly a done deal and many people will wish to move onto other opportunities now rather than waiting for an odd penny or two in a couple of months' time (the sort of timeframe these things take). It's just the old upside/downside argument; the upside here is capped so why not move onto something where the prospective rewards are greater?

[bearbully80] 18/9/2013 18:02

hvs, it is obvious you went to a good school, I did not mean to sound like it is not or that I had any doubt about that.
as a true scholar and a gentleman, enlighten me - what is the point of telling people to sell at 102p now this first bid is official?
yes, you can claim your 102p-102.75p by selling tomorrow, but if you wait a week you get at least 103.2p, that's guaranteed, isn't it?
also, if you do not rush to sell, on top of the 103.2p, there is also a some small probability of a competing bid or, if PGI's 102p is rejected by vote that they increase theirs.

[hvs] 18/9/2013 15:47

lol !!!!!!

I went to a good school.

[shauney2] 18/9/2013 15:33

HVS,why don't you invest your proceeds in FENR;-)

[hvs] 18/9/2013 13:18

lol !!!!!

There was one yesterday.

[makinbuks] 18/9/2013 12:59

Should there not be an RNS on this?

[bearbully80] 18/9/2013 12:49

what's the rush hvs?
you can either claim your 102p today, or wait a week and get at least 103.2p. And, if you're lucky (new bidder or if PGI 102p is rejected by vote) you could get a helluva lot more.
as always hvs, DYOR!

[waspfactory] 18/9/2013 12:49

Agree with hvs, sold them my 10k today, not hanging around, looking for a new home for the funds, like the look of Carclo.

[hvs] 18/9/2013 12:44

Its a done deal.

Move on.

[fizzypop] 18/9/2013 12:05

Do shareholders holding shares in a nominee account such as Interactive Investor get a vote? If so how would that work?
Thx.

[bearbully80] 18/9/2013 12:03

thanks sharw

this is important for ALL shareholders to understand - and that even the small holder has a voice, which is weird but a pleasant surprise, I must say, and empowers and values people with a few in an ISA and employees etc!

of course things can always go wrong, but it does seem 102p is guaranteed now as the absolute minimum, and there seems to be some realistic probability that it will go up as some shareholders will feel they can achieve closer to what Petropar paid for the other 40% of Fiberweb (most of the old Fiberweb Hygiene division which they paid 220m for including debts, equivalent to
220m/174m ~ 125p/share), especially since the remaining Fiberweb business is looking much much better now (remember there is cash in the bank too, and US tax credits), the key western economies it depends on are recovering and for the loyal shareholders that held on 125p may be fair enough.
paulypilot, I also expect they would have to increase again if 50% of shareholders refuse their offer. the funny thing is, these 50% could be holding a tiny number of shares - strange but true (if I understand properly), so it is very possible!
also notice that takeovers are definitely back in fashion in nonwovens too -
hxxp://nonwovens.com/nonwovens/news/Georgia-Pacific-acquisition-of-Buckeye-creates-worldu2019s-largest-maker-of-airlaid-nonwovens.html

[paulypilot] 18/9/2013 11:24

Hi bearbully80,

I've been involved with situations before where a lowball bid was rejected by most shareholders, and it forced the bidder to twice raise the offer (from 120p, via 135p, to 150p in the end). That was a thing called FDM, where the CEO basically nicked it from shareholders on the cheap.

I'm minded to do the same here. If enough shareholders refuse to accept the bid, then they might well increase it. Always a chance another bidder might come along too. 102p is not a good price, although I quite understand some people wishing to bank their gains.

Cheers, Paul.

[sharw] 18/9/2013 11:22

There was no provisional timetable in yesterday's announcement - that will be in the scheme document.

Talk of 90% acceptances is irrelevant because this is not going ahead as a bid but as a Scheme of Arrangement under the Companies Act. That means a vote and then if the scheme is accepted all shareholders are bound by it whether they like it or not. This is one of the few instances where the small shareholder becomes important - in addition to a vote by shares (75% needed) there is a requirement that 50% of shareholders must vote yes.

[bearbully80] 18/9/2013 11:09

was expecting at 10 times these volumes today, expecting PGI tries to get to 90% as quickly as possible to reduce the risk of a bidding war but, there are apparently no more shares for sale below or even at their 102p offer price. it seems this is not quite a done deal yet and they have work to do yet!

in the ideal world, there'll be a sharp correction in the price when USA wakes up if any other rivals there or other smart business men (not unlike blackstone themselves) with $325m-$350m to invest are notice this no-brainer.

does anybody know the procedure for shareholders that hold out for a reasonable price? when will voting take place?

PS to anybody that has already cashed in and had bought at prices lower than 102p and made a profit ... well done and congratulations!

[hvs] 18/9/2013 10:04

Cannot complain at all.

Just banked the lot.

Anyone looking for a recovery play have a look at CTO. DYOR.

[saripoos] 18/9/2013 09:56

when likely to be paid

[paulypilot] 18/9/2013 00:53

bearbully80 - thanks very much indeed for the pointers on that, much appreciated!

Cheers, Paul.

[bearbully80] 17/9/2013 20:34

appendix b in the pdf (find link in abbreviated announcements or read it on ,paul), says the revocables stand unless there's a competing bid that's some percentage points better (10% for most of them, like Sterling Strategic, with one at 8% and, 15% for Hendersons), if I understand it properly.

don't count your bird in the hand yet either, imo - there could be enormous eagles nesting and watching in that bush who may not be keen on PGI becoming so powerful, especially in NA housewrap and filters with such tasty margins, not to mention getting all Fiberweb's patents and R&D they have been investing so heavily in, and this price is bird-seed for some of those big birds of prey who could swoop with 200m (120p/share) on just 1 month's profit from their existing business. They must have watched on as Petropar paid much more than 200m for a business only 70% the size of what is the remaining Fiberweb, 2 years ago, since when, new-Fiberweb's business and outlook has improved dramatically, no doubt thanks to the vision and hard work of the current board.

even with no counter bid, PGI still need another 55% of the shares to force this through, and I am not sure if an extra 4.5 p will sway those who want to see this management fulfill the promise, and then get 150% or more of what's on offer today in 6-12 months.

[boonboon] 17/9/2013 20:16

Fiberweb takeover offer increased but I am still disappointed

[royaloak] 17/9/2013 20:15

Apart from the shares, I increased my holding with cfd's the last few days, the chart and price action said it all.

I may buy more shares if profit takers come in needing the money elsewhere, if it provides a payback within a few weeks has to be better than money in the Bank!