Fiberweb Share Discussion Threads

[12at] 20/6/2013 14:08

Note sure what you're trying to say with that analogy?

[bearbully80] 20/6/2013 14:00

Hope? Really?
Backing a horse, possibly just "each-way" if not feeling especially lucky, is possibly a better and safer bet for investors on "hope".

[12at] 20/6/2013 11:50

Lets hope the IMS on 6/7/13 is upbeat

[bearbully80] 20/6/2013 10:40

Could you please provide a reference to "Peel Hunt and N+1 both issued Buy recommendations yesterday"? The most recent analyst spiel I saw was the "add" from Numis last month, with a target of 98p. And before that one of the others said there would be a 30p special dividend. Do you feel these brokers base all this on anything more scientific than wishful thinking?

What do you make of the CEO selling all his shares apart from what he was given at zero cost as "incentives", and all bigger recent PDMR trades also being sells? Some might say that directors' trades are one of the best clues and indicators for prospective investors. If the CEO bought back the ~1m (net) shares he has sold, one might have grounds to expect a decent and lasting recovery. Do you think it might make Fiberweb's shares a little less volatile and less prone to shorting if the directors showed enough faith in their own spiel to at least put their dividends back into shares of the company they run? If directors (apart from the chairman) don't see reason to buy, why do you feel others should?

Why do you think this is a buy, FunkmasterP12? It has gradually but steadily fallen 70% since demerger from BBA. The chart for the last 4 months seems to point more to continued collapse than recovery. What sort of patience do you feel is required? Another 1 year, 5 years, 10 years? Do you feel in that time this board will discover how to make a profit from the excellent staff, products, innovation and decent sales rather than spending everything they ever make on "one-off efficiencies and cost-cutting" that never seem to result in a margin the market feels is worth investing in?

Since the part of the company that accounted for around 40% of total sales realised an enterprise valuation of 220m, what do you think the remaining business is worth if a hostile bid comes in now that today's market cap is not much more that 110m for a company with 10-20M in cash, no debts, significant tax and pension benefits/advantages and 300m in sales mainly in markets that seem to be showing signs of recovery?

Don't worry if you can't answer all these - but such questions may help understand this latest, and probably ongoing, collapse - this was 30% higher than it's worth now just a few months ago. The biggest fear now must be more bad news at the end of H1, especially after the teaser in the last trading update warning that sales are down.

Shorters don't always get the credit they deserve - you could say they have done a great job again here and made a small fortune again, but they are not as impressive as those that have created such a perfect environment for them to make such easy money.

[funkmasterp12] 19/6/2013 16:46

Last IMS: "Operating profit and margin are ahead of prior year, despite lower sales, while the net cash position is stable. For the full year, underlying earnings per share are expected to remain in-line with the Board's expectations."

Peel Hunt and N+1 both issued Buy recommendations yesterday citing 6.29 EPS forecasts (LY 5.20p) so growth is still apparent.

The share price is weak - it's a buy for the brave but one which requires patience for the holders. Let's not forget the 4.5% yield either.

[funkmasterp12] 19/6/2013 16:39

This is testing my patience too, to be honest, but I continue to be positive about the long-term outlook. One bit of good news and we'll shoot straight up through this fall.

[12at] 19/6/2013 16:32

What has happened to FWEB?

Its been a stinker, and looking at the very bullish run from Dec 12' till March this year, you wouldn't have expected such a fall

Is there any hope of a recovery? looks like the market doesn't think so

I'm tempted to cut my losses and move on to something with some hope

[funkmasterp12] 10/6/2013 16:04

Back up at long last. Rally starting here? 78p is the next big milestone imo.

[12at] 28/5/2013 16:37

thanks Funkmaster for explaining,
I too bought in at 79p, onwards and upwards as they say.

[hvs] 28/5/2013 15:45

Seems like the very NASTY fall will continue for a lot longer

[12at] 28/5/2013 15:44

Does anyone have an explanation for the nasty falls, from the general uptrend,

i appreciate profit taking is inevitable, but this is quite a drop, on no news

[12at] 28/5/2013 15:44

Does anyone have an explanation for the nasty falls, from the general uptrend,

i appreciate profit taking is inevitable, but this is quite a drop, on no news

[funkmasterp12] 13/5/2013 23:06

Numis have upped their target price to 98p today and have reiterated their Buy recommendation.

[funkmasterp12] 13/5/2013 14:56

Yeah I'm not too worried today either as a holder with a long term view here, even though I got in at 79p. Nothing in the IMS causes me any concern, I think this is an overdone reaction caused in part by the odd auction procedure this morning. We should be back up relatively quickly.

[greg the grinch] 13/5/2013 14:41

I am buying this share for where it will be in a year or so.

i.e. US even stronger hence much higher profits and euro stabilization or mild growth..... I'm still sticking to £2 - £3 mid term i.e. 1-3 years.

[sharw] 13/5/2013 13:20

A strange reaction - one trade at 08 08 then an avalanche of 42 trades between 08 26 and 08 31 triggering an intraday auction at 70/71.75 which uncrossed at 73. Since then it has drifted back up to 75.5/76.

As for the statement - that US housing is strong but the other markets are difficult is not new - this was said in the webcast at the prelims as I noted in post 2095.

That "...underlying earnings per share are expected to remain in-line.." is hardly negative and on the positive side capex at the US facility is being accelerated bringing the start of the £1.6m annual savings from H2 15 to Q4 14.

As long as the decent yield is safe, which it appears to be at the moment, the gyrations of the market are secondary to long term holders.

[greg the grinch] 13/5/2013 13:07

Its exactly what I expected. US growing doing well plus lowish oil price, rest is slightly down.
The US will continue to grow and see more profits while parts of europe will move up slightly, then the share price will be much higher.
Interesting to note the UK rail mention..... linked to the new rail link I wonder?
Might be a big payday.

I missed that 72p ... damn.

[12at] 13/5/2013 10:12

doesnt look like the market is too happy with the IMS

any thoughts?

[12at] 24/4/2013 15:36

thanks, hopefully we'll pick back up to 80-85+ soon

[v11slr] 24/4/2013 15:03

2.2p paid 24/5

[12at] 24/4/2013 15:02

for some reason the FWEB site isn't loading investor relations but am i right in recalling the div is 2p and is paid in May?

[funkmasterp12] 24/4/2013 07:29

Ex-div today.

[hvs] 11/4/2013 15:30

Its looking very good here.

[topvest] 08/4/2013 14:58

Had a look through the annual report today. It does look a good recovery prospect in my view. Happy that we haven't had a capital return as better to try and move the business forward with low gearing in my view.

A couple of thoughts of interest to me:
- valued at less than 1/2 of revenue
- shareholder base looks like a value investor feast!
- Geosynthetics division turned around
- investment in capex, pension scheme and possible acquisition should bode well

i.e. shareholders are Sterling Strategic Value 11%, Fidelity 8%, Aberforth 5% and Franklin Templeton 4% to name a few. Has to bode well!