||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about ENK (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|metex: Mattybuoy....this RNS outlines the situation regarding Montemina....(deal done)....and Chromite assets at Acoje:
Zambales Diversified Metals Corporation ('ZDMC'), holder of the Acoje tenement and a subsidiary of ENK, for the exploration of chromite and other underground minerals on the Acoje tenement.
GHGC involved in both:
Similar share price action in Oz....on release of potential Acquirer statement there....plus....release of Quarterly Cash Flow Report....outlined in this morning`s RNS:
General link to ASX....for reference:
Two big clues maybe....to the fact that this potential bid has materialised now....(and shouldn`t have come as a surprise)....and who might be interested in ENK:
1/ The speed and prioritising of management resource time....on cleaning the books up....regarding non-core assets....especially the Berong and TMC assets.
2/ The involvement of GHGC in the Chromite asset development at Acoje.
But it`s the "big clue"....to the question....that all ENK investors want answering....i.e.....the potential "take out" price!....and where to find it!
Well....just surmising....but why not go back to the 25th June 2012....and the RNS that day....The Grant of Options RNS....and the timing of it:
25 June 2012 - ENK plc ("ENK" or the "Company") (AIM, PLUS, ASX: ENK) announces that on 21 June 2012 the Board of the Company agreed, subject to shareholder approval, to issue 2,000,000 options to Managing Director Robert Gregory for no consideration, and 1,500,000 options to Finance Director Mark Hanlon for no consideration (the "Options"). The Options have been granted on the following major terms:
-- Term of 5 years
-- Exercise Price of 16 pence
-- Vesting conditions:
-- 1/3 exerciseable when the share price has traded at 24 pence or higher for 10 consecutive trading days, but in any event no earlier than 12 months from date of issue,
-- 1/3 exerciseable when the share price has traded at 32 pence or higher for 10 consecutive trading days but in any event no earlier than 24 months from date of issue, and
-- 1/3 exerciseable when the share price has traded at 48 pence or higher for 10 consecutive trading days but in any event no earlier than 36 months from date of issue.
If shareholders approve the issue of options at the Annual General Meeting of the Company on 30 August 2012 the resultant beneficial ownership of Mr Gregory and Mr Hanlon is set out below:
Name Number of Options Total number Current Shareholding Percentage
Granted of options following in ENK of Issued
grant Share Capital
Rob Gregory 2,000,000 4,000,000 1,235,000 0.47
------------------ ---------------------- --------------------- ---------------
Mark Hanlon 1,500,000 3,000,000 776,800 0.30
------------------ ---------------------- --------------------- ---------------
As of the date of this announcement no options have vested.
Again....total speculation....but could something around the 48p figure....(presently not granted....earlier than the third year)....probably be a figure....that would at least satisfy two Directors....the majority of main institutional investors....and perhaps quite a few ENK investors too!
Note....if it is GHGC....then the returns from Acoje Chromite assets alone....would probably easily cover....both the purchase of ENK....and the construction of the Acoje processing plant.
Might be an interesting few weeks now....in the run up to the AGM....on the 30th August 2012.
As usual....time will out!....all IMHO and DYOR.|
|metex: ian50....re: Golden Harvest Global Corporation....answer....yes!
There are many synergies....between the two companies.
It`s all conjecture....but a deal for GHGC....would be perfect....and the timing....fits in with the thinking....of pre-empting any potential off-take agreements....to be signed by ENK....with parties not within GHGC`s sphere of operation.
Also....the knowledge....that it would be a local Philippines company....that would be developing Acoje....wouldn`t necessarily have any impact....on the ECC amendment process.
If they took out ENK....they wouldn`t necessarily then....have to potentially fork out....the $20m later....for the Chromite assets at Acoje either....as they already have the Acoje Chromite deal with ENK....so they would be effectively be paying....the $20m up front.
With GHGC having picked up a hefty chunk of ZCMC....for a pittance from Montemina IMHO....why shouldn`t they add the rest of it....plus....a future nickel processing plant....with the tank leach process....and millions of dollars worth of Chromite ore....at Acoje.
While through GHGC`s present nickel and chromite businesses....they already have good established off-take contacts....(who could possibly fund the Acoje build)....and GHGC could then....in the future....also process their own....other nickel laterite deposits....through the new Acoje Processing Facility.
As Winston Churchill....is famously supposed to have said....as a final riposte:
"Madam....we have already established what you are....we are now just haggling over the price!"
(No gender offence intended).
Maybe that`s where ENK are....at this moment in time....as such a deal....makes a lot of sense....from GHGC`s point of view....however....do they have the funds....to match ENK shareholder expectations?
So out with the "fag" packet!....and for the moment....putting any NAV and NPV calculations aside.
1/ The first $40m....(cash pile now....and receipts coming later)....of any bid....will be received by the acquirer....on conclusion of any deal.
2/ If it is GHGC....(or someone else)....then approx $20m....can be added for Acoje Chromite assets....which was the figure mooted in the recent Chromite deal.
3/ Acoje project plus ZCMC....with Caldag sold for $40m....but Acoje (a known better project than Caldag)....plus the other part of ZCMC....therefore approx price tag of $80m to be added.
4/ Technology for both Tank Leach....and Heap Leach....price tag difficult....but taking into account monies spent on developing technologies....price tag $30m....(with potential heap leach technology licence income from Caldag....down the line).
So even using the back of a cigarette packet calculation....$40m + $20m + $80m + $30m = $170m....this equates to a share price of approximately 40p....which should be the minimum price IMHO....that ENK management should even start to consider.
(*Note....there`s also a slim chance....that the real indentities....behind some of the present larger shareholders in ENK....may be revealed too!....going forward....perhaps affecting the actual overall sum paid for ENK.
Have no knowledge of it....but are GHGC (or A.N.Other)....behind Montoya....or other investment vehicles....for instance?)
But the biggest unanswered question....for this investor though....should an actual offer....be placed on the table....is whether ENK management really do have the determination and will....(irrespective of the clear message relayed in yesterday`s RNS by Mr Gregory)....to ensure a fair return for all ENK investors....through some form of premium...in the offer price....for selling ENK....at such an early stage of Acoje`s development.
Would prefer to see Acoje project developed under ENK`s wing....over the next few years....but even for long term suffering ENK investors....if a bid price does come in....that is perceived to be more than reasonable....believe realistically....that many might sigh....and say...."so be it!"....all IMHO and DYOR.|
|metex: Believe on ENK share price chart....sp went through an important 200 Day Moving Average today.
Giant Steps/Chartists....can you confirm....as it would be good news....DYOR.
200 Day Moving Average
The 200 Day Moving Average is a long term moving average that helps determine overall health of a stock. The percentage of stocks above their 200 Day Moving Average helps determine overall health of the market. When this number gets below 20%, many traders look for a sharp reversal in the market that can quickly bring the number up to 40%. When this number gets above 85% or 90%, many traders look for a reversal in the market.
A stock that is trading below its 200 Day Moving Average is in a long term downtrend. The stock is generally considered as unhealthy, until it breaks out above its 200 Day Moving Average. Some traders like to buy when its 50 day moving average crosses above its 200 Day Moving Average.
A stock that is trading above its 200 Day Moving Average is in a long term uptrend. This is considered to be a healthy indication. A healthy stock will generally have a rising 200 Day Moving Average. When its 50 day moving average crosses below its 200 Day Moving Average, it is called a Death Cross.
The 200 Day Moving Average often works as a major support level in a bull market. This can present a low-risk opportunity to buy a stock, however a break below it can lead to a large gap downward. In a bear market, the 200 Day Moving Average often works as a major resistance level, however a break above it can lead to a sharp rise.
In a bull market, a buying signal may be generated as the stock dips close to the 200 Day Moving Average and a sell signal may be generated when it goes far above its 200 day Moving Average. In a bear market, a buying signal may be generated when it dips far below its 200 Day Moving Average, and a sell signal may be generated when it rises close to its 200 Day Moving Average. However the opposite signals may be generated on strong breakthroughs of the 200 Day Moving Average.|
|richscotsman: nickel price tanks, enk share price goes up???
related to the TMC deal in any way?|
|metex: vosene....thanks for that....although it does appear to be a good buying opportunity.
But what is the ENK share price....really telling investors....(irrespective of Director Purchases....Institution top ups....Director leaving....news articles from the Philippines....or a Ni price over $9/lb).
Without any specific communication from the ENK management....it's back to good old speculation:
1/ A reflection of the general market environment....where many companies are trading close to their cash holdings.
2/ The Acoje project has run into problems....either on JORC resource....ATL economics....or....Environmental Compliance Certificate non-issuance.
3/ That the cash reserves....in part or all....have been allocated....(in principle)....to an acquisition....and the market is reflecting it!
4/ Third parties....seemingly aware of when news....will finally arrive....have been manipulating the share price
Without any specific guidance from the ENK management....some investors could be forgiven...for getting the feeling now....that a Caldag "imminent" type situation....is about to come back and haunt them.
But is it???
|metex: jezza123....was inferring that the market would probably like to see the deal actually closed....("legally binding" or not)....with the final Caldag monies in the bank....together with some clarification regarding the "hinted" Acoje project part sale....before a more positive effect on the ENK share price can be enjoyed by investors....DYOR.|
|chipperfrd: There is little doubt that this stock has tried the patience of all stakeholders for a very long time and even more patience will be required during 2011 as they re-activate the Acoje DFS.
But there is also no denying the sheer scale of the companies in-ground resources and the advanced state of both Caldag and Acoje with regard to JORC categorisation, feasibility studies and their long-term, in-depth testing of their heap leaching technology.
Whilst the ENK share price remains in the doldrums the market price of LME nickel has continued to rise, so that with a total in-ground JORC resource of 1,353,000t Ni the gross value has risen to US$37.4b (ignoring the significant cobalt).
Now clearly it is gross folly to focus on such a headline number and one must assign a significant discount in order to avoid fanciful estimations - but even 1% of the gross value works out at US$374m (c. 92p/share).
One could also argue that without the Caldag forestry permit then no account should be given to the Caldag resource - further reducing the discounted value. But, given the US$75m already invested into the project by ENK and given the significant fees charged by the Turkish government for their forestry permit compared to annual income generated from forestry it would defy all logic for this permit to be denied - let alone the loss of employment and exchequer inflows that will accrue from full production.
Also, we must not forget that the Zambales resource has yet to be further developed with the likely addition of further nickel.
So on the basis that I would always prefer to look forward rather than dwell on 'what might have been' and given the extremely weak share price and poor sentiment, I take the view that 2011 is likely to be a turning point for this stock (be it on my head!).
AIMHO of course.
|metex: garykc....Constantia will only pay the 44p....when certain milestones have been met:
1/ When Caldag permit is reissued.
2/ Bank finance has been sorted out.
3/ Shareholders approve the issuance of shares to Constantia and other institutional holders at that price of 44p.
If those milestones are reached along the way....the share price of ENK should have increased significantly....quite probably above 44p....and 44p is a figure agreed by the ENK management....as being a fair one....to in effect reward Constantia/HD with a premium....for being prepared to put up the equity finance....and to enable the Banks to come up with their finance package....of around 300m pounds.
The reason why the ENK management and Constantia have done this deal this way round....is that the Banks can work on their deal....knowing the terms of ENK's equity financing "in advance"....knowing it is set up for ENK's "equity finance" to become available....when those previously mentioned milestones have been met.
What the actual ENK share price will be....at time of Constantia's share issuance at 44p....following the agreement on Bank financing....is perhaps the $64,000 question....DYOR.|
|dickturnip: Earnings outlook and company valuation
The company has released its June quarter cash flow statement (see page 10). The company will
move its year-end to 31 March and as a result, the period to 30 September 2010 will become the
first set of interim financials for the newly merged entity. Consequently, we have not produced
consolidated financials, but we have provided basic earnings estimates which are summarised
We have assumed that the company will continue to run with administrative and other costs of
US$1.5m per month, or US$18m per annum. We would not expect interest to be expensed until
first production in late FY2012. Although ENK will deliver first production at the back-end of
FY2012, we would not expect first profits until FY2013 (end-March). Operating margins will climb
to mid-40% based on our estimates, and when at full production.
In the earnings table below, we have taken into account the pending US$55m financing from HDI
and the plans to raise an additional US$20m at end Q4 CY2010, both at 44p per share. We have
assumed the current sterling: US$ rate of 1.55 to calculate that a further 109.9m shares will be
issued later this calendar year. This would take ENK's issued share capital from 232.1m shares
(post HDI first tranche) to 342.1m shares. Based on the current share price of 22p, we calculate
P/E multiples for FY2013 and FY2014 of 2.0x and 0.9x, respectively. As a result, we believe the
ENK share price offers considerable upside if Çaldag can be delivered on-time and within budget.
End-March Revenue EBITDA Net profit EPS P/E
US$m US$m US$m p X
2011F 0.0 -18.0 -18.0 -4.5 na
2012F 21.0 -29.3 -42.9 -7.9 na
2013F 304.5 112.5 60.4 11.0 2.0
2014F 411.1 193.0 129.3 23.6 0.9
Source: Mirabaud Securities estimates
With Acoje expected to utilise identical processing technology as that planned for Çaldag there
should be the ability to transfer skills and project teams from one project to the next. With
production underway in late FY2012 at Çaldag, we would expect ENK to be able to utilise internal
cash flow alongside further project finance to launch construction at Acoje later that year. The
success of Çaldag is therefore key to ENK's long-term nickel production profile.
European Nickel potential nickel production profile|
|chipperfrd: As ENK is closing in on the price cap for converting RMLA shares to ENK shares on completion of the merger it is probably worth reminding everyone how this may work out.
The merger schedule should be announced to RML holders in the next few days. Then, in early May (12 days before the Rusina EGM) there will be a decision promulgated regarding the actual split. Currently it is 4 ENK for 5 RML as long as ENK is not above 11.175p (the CAP). At the Cap RML would be valued at £27.1m.
If prior to the conversion setting decision the ENK share price is above 11.175p then there will be an adjustment to the conversion terms from 4:5 to some lesser number.
Here is a basic calculator to emphasise these points:
For a RML holder with 500,000 shares (scale up or down as required)
Below the cap the holder will receive 400,000 ENK on merger go-ahead and value of the new holding will then be a function of 400k x ENK share price
Above the cap the holder will get fewer ENK shares and the resulting instantaneous value of the holding will be limited to £43,085.
Examples of differing ENK share prices and estimates of resulting new holding:
ENK share price .. New shares .. Value/RML share
7 ....... 400k ........ 5.6p
8 ....... 400k ........ 6.4p
9 ....... 400k ........ 7.2p
10 ...... 400k ........ 8.0p
11 ...... 400k ........ 8.8p
12 ...... 359k ........ 8.617p
13 ...... 331.4k ...... 8.617p
14 ...... 307.7k . ditto
15 ...... 287.2k . ditto
16 ...... 269.2k . ditto
17 ...... 253.4k . ditto
European Nickel share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange