Debt Free Direct Share Discussion Threads

[acornoptical] 01/10/2007 10:27

How do hanover feel now buying in first smg at about70p now this at was it 260p
or was it higher . if hanover get it right in the end smg and these must be massive buys i think only for the brave .

[miti 1000] 01/10/2007 09:54

yes great call EK..when is ARTA gonna follow??..indeed why has it bounced so strongly!!

[sat69] 01/10/2007 09:42

Simon,

That's another victory to you. I'm out. Good luck to all - longs and Simon!

sat

[matthewa] 01/10/2007 09:39

SC - Cracking call on DFD Good call.

[simon cawkwell] 01/10/2007 08:47

Gentlemen,

This morning's announcement from DEBT, a company within the IVA "industry" or scavenge, as I call it, regarded as well run, which shows it's all over. It is astonishing that DFD stands up at more than 50p.

Simon Cawkwell

[smashingguy] 01/10/2007 08:22

Thanks alex, i am peeved with IGs poor service levels. They say that they are up to their 2% limit, which is a lame excuse given the number of clients they have. Will open City Index account today.

[alexx] 01/10/2007 08:18

What a brilliamt fall, what's happened, just logged on and seen this.

Smash. City Index will allow shorting this, or they did when I opened mine months ago.

[wiganer] 01/10/2007 08:12

Still on a stratospherically high valuation.

[sat69] 01/10/2007 08:11

Looks like the DEBT pre-close statement has taken the last breath out of the sector. I wonder what Hanover's next step will be?

[sat69] 18/9/2007 17:52

Good support at the 240p level. From here, we'll be heading back to 280p soon.

Yes Shrewd - I'm sure Hanover Investments is now on the board, as they believe the company can be turned around. It won't happen overnight, but it will happen.

[shrewd_n_sharp] 17/9/2007 11:47

I have started to look at their website and have seen the following excerpt, which is interesting.

"We invest through Hanover's managed Funds, and through Single Purpose Vehicles in special situations. Our investors are professionally-managed Family and Private Offices, 'Fund of Funds' and Institutions."

So would it not be fair to say they are managing through a fund, and not as a focussed management team? i.e. DFD is just one of many investments? Have to be corrected.

"Hanover typically invests where underperformance can be attributed to company-specific operating and management issues, rather than to market or sector weakness. Often these situations are created by some combination of inadequate capital, unsuccessful acquisitions, misallocation of resources, loss of shareholder confidence or ineffective restructuring."

So perhaps they also see this as a special situation/turnaround?

[shrewd_n_sharp] 17/9/2007 11:41

thanks Dio, will look at that. The situation here then is a current mess, and it could potentially be called a turnaround situation. The question will be "what is the strategy for turning it around". One to watch now I guess....

[sat69] 14/9/2007 07:53

Cheers Diogenes! I just did a google search and copied and pasted the first Hanover I could get hold of!

There you go Shrewd - Someone on the thread a bit more 'shrewd' than me!

sat

[diogenesj] 13/9/2007 22:42

Lol, Sat, that's another Hanover altogether. It's an asset finance company, and probably the only one that will survive the current finance company meltdown in NZ (nine in receivership already, more expected).

No, the Hanover involved here is quite another thing:

[sat69] 13/9/2007 17:15

Shrewd

Hanover are the biggest in their field in New Zealand...I used to have a Kiwi girlfriend....alas she broke my heart :-(

[shrewd_n_sharp] 13/9/2007 17:06

Hmm, thanks for the response Sat. I have to say, I don't know anything of Hanover. Could you perhaps offer a link or information as to their past success? Thanks

[sat69] 13/9/2007 17:03

Shrewd,

Glad to hear you are not 'one and the same' as the aforementioned! However, it does appear you share the same views as Simon. Which is fair enough. Each to his own. Personally, I feel with the current debt climate not disappearing overnight, there is still plenty of money to be made by debt companies. Additionally, they all appear to be diversifying, therby not relying purely on IVA's. This has already started to feed into the bottom line, and we will see the positive effects in the next set of results.

Further, in the case of DFD, the taking on board of Hanover personnel will surely add to the strength of the company. Hanover have an excellent record of turning companies around.

And finally....the imminent share buyback will bring the share price back to the levels it should be at.

sat

[shrewd_n_sharp] 13/9/2007 11:15

sat69 - no, absolutely not. Simon posts under hiw own name and is big enough to do so. He has made his personal fortune backing his beliefs. I am not in his category. Unfortunately.

I have given you my valid reasons though. I have even shown you where to get the information to see with your own eyes, I could hardly be more helpful. My argument is factual, not one of spite. Nor do I believe are his motives one of spite, but alerting people who may now have that depth of investment knowledge.

As for "going bust" we are not at that point yet, but it may happen if the company does not convert a higher percentage of that profit into cashflow. Surely, you can understand that if the company's expenses are exceeding its cashflow is a dangerous situation. So far it has only managed to fund this expansion by getting investors to part with their money in the open market, diluting their share value in the process. Now that the market does not have the appetite for it, if the directors don't put more of their own money in, and if people don't buy the shares at the next listing then this company could be in trouble.

[sat69] 11/9/2007 21:12

Shrewd and Sharp.

Your writing style is reminiscent of a very famous and somewhat larger than life poster who frequents this and other threads from time to time to shower us with his reasons why this (and other) stocks are about to go bust. Are you sure your appearence here is not in the guise of this aforementioned "gentleman"?

sat

ps. one month to go before the massive share buyback begins.

[shrewd_n_sharp] 11/9/2007 11:11

Nobel - I don't see what market size has got to do with this. Increasing sales is not resulting in increasing profitable cashflow, but increasing debtors.
The market size doesn't necessarily lead to profitable cashflow, which is what we are seeing here. DFD is not considered a blue chip at all. With a capitalisation of 100m, far from it. It's just considered the largest player in a so far market for cash-hungry IVA providers - that is all.

The only way Hanover can turn this around is by slashing unit operational costs by outsourcing the activities (application processing for example) to a cheaper location or raising the future IVA prices. Preferable it would do both, then we might see a result.

For now, this company is like a small coffee franchise on AIM I can think of - a company funding expansion by taking money off the shareholders without seeing improving profitable cashflow. And juts like that little company, if the company didn't make cashflow profits next year and market decided there was no more appetite for shares in a sahre offering then you area dealing with a profitable, yet insolvent company.

Want you cue? Click "Financials" and read the negative figure for Price-Cashflow PS (per share)

[sat69] 05/9/2007 17:40

Looks like most of the selling today was done by one guy - a series of 2.5k AT sells throughout the day. It's not you adding to your shorts is it Simon?

[sat69] 05/9/2007 16:45

Unexpectedly closed down 9p today at 357p, albeit in low volume. Unless we can regain the 260p level tomorrow, we could see a drop back to the 240p level. :-(

[sat69] 03/9/2007 22:59

A nice rise to 268p, albeit in very thin volume. With the 260p level now comfortably left behind (double-bottomed), I'm looking forward to the assault on 290p and beyond! :-)