|Dawnay, Day Treveria
||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
Real-Time news about Dawnay Day (London Stock Exchange): 0 recent articles
|nickcduk: When I say winding it up I mean if they just walked away from their investments in the SPV's. 4 out of the 5 are likely to breach or have already breached LTV covenants. At that point the banks can call in their loans. Very little chance of DTR being able to sell their portfolios at around current market value and hence no return is likely from the SPV in the event of the company being wound up. Think of the 13-15c as the worst case scenario. That makes the current share price very attractive and hence why I am looking to load up on them.|
Crawford - I'm not really following bulletin boards at the moment (doesn't help, just clouds my judgment with excessive negativity, at a time that could be great to be buying), but stumbled across your post.
I sold some of my DTR on the way down, but didn't think the recent results were bad enough to justify the collapse in share price. So I averaged down heavily this week at an average of about 9.6c.
At one tenth of NTAV it's gotta be worth a punt. Especially as the funding issues with Covenants don't appear to spell immediate collapse. Also I like the fact that the portfolio still has a rental yield of just under 7% from memory, and that these are in Germany - the big Western economy that DIDN'T have a property boom, didn't have a consumer boom, and is still export-driven.
So very very sound fundamentals to the German economy.
I hope that the worst of the current credit crisis may be resolved before DTR need to refinance their loans. If so, we could 3 or 4 bag from the current price. That would be nice. But equally got to treat it as high risk now, and could be a 100% loss.
|nickcduk: Ken - I agree my calls have been disastrous on DTR and DDE. Down close to 50k euros so far so it is obviously painful. Has been a complete hatred across the European property sector. KEIF, ALPH and IERE are all examples of huge selling recently.
Its strange how sentiment towards UK majors has been quite strong of late and the discounts to NAV much narrower than on their European peers.
Had a listen to CAL's interim Q and A. Their German property operation had LTV at end December of around 70%. Not too dissimilar to DTR at that point. They only announced their deal with Apollo 6 weeks ago. I would imagine that during this period DTR were discussing a similar deal for which talks are still ongoing. Obviously market conditions have been grim of late which makes the prospect of a successful conclusion more doubtful than a couple of months ago.
I note that Cazenove were selling out yesterday as were Ratio. Cazenove are advising the company on the review so it doesn't inspire confidence. Still huge swathe of sellers yet to fully unload so share price could come under further pressure. I think the shares are now almost option or warrant money. The company won't be going bust anytime soon and if they come through a couple of sticky years the share price will respond accordingly.
Apologies if anyone has lost money as a result of my posts on DTR. I haven't tried to ramp the stock and mislead anyone. Fingers crossed it will all come good in the end.|
|kenmitch: I've done that. The share price suggests that they won't get that equity injection. I hope your optimism proves justified. Even if the shares were to double, they would still be well down on the 30 cents I paid only a few weeks ago.
I'll be very pleased if proved wrong by being so pessimistic now, but unfortunately doubt that I will be. The only reason I haven't sold is because I've so little left I might as well ride it out and see what happens.
Fact is though that your very confident posts about DTR and Develica in the recent past have not stood the test of time or results. As so often the market knows.
I'm not scoring points here - my equally enthusiastic posts about KEIF on Mike Walters bb have proved just as wide of the mark. So far news from KEIF does not justify the further falls in the share price. But I now fear that here too the market knows and before long we will be finding out why their shares now languish under 30p.I'm keeping fingers very crossed that unlike DTR, they will not totally cancel the dividend,and might even maintain it, in which case the 20% dividend will do me fine while waiting for the share price to recover. Again I hope the market is wrong about KEIF but the share price is suggesting otherwise. Best to concede errors sometimes rather than clutching at straws?|
|kenmitch: Thanks for the mostly very helpful and informed comments on these so disappointing results. I clearly got the wrong impression from somewhere about a healthy cash position!
Reluctant to sell at this price. Yet guess it will be ages before any meaningful recovery in the share price.
The idea of a huge share buyback suggested here is ludicrous imo. Aside from the fact that they clearly can't afford one, it would be a total waste of money.
It really is time that those still supporting share buybacks did a bit of research instead of relying on outdated information and opinions.
e.g buying shares worth 90 cents for 10 cents ought to be a no brainer. But it isn't as I've already explained on the Dolphin Capital bb. There is also proper research -eg from Morgan Stanley - showing how time and time again the shares in Companies buying back their shares have gone on to do much worse than those that didn't.
So whatever you want DTR to do to help get their share price up please don't pressure them in to doing something that is a complete waste of money.|
|kenmitch: Thanks again nickcduc.
SGL results today looked fine - that did nothing for the share price though.
Ditto Dolphin Capital - I hold those - excellent results yet the shares are down.
So it could be that DTR won't bounce at all, let alone to 30c, even if they announce disposals and a rolling buyback.
Hybrasil - see my posts on Dolphin Capital. Mine is a minority and recently changed view, but fwiw I think the share price would be about where it is now even if they hadn't bought back. Dolphin Capital have spent over £20 million on buybacks and these don't seem to have provided any support for the share price.|
Thanks for the reply. You make a convincing case for the buybacks. That won't change my now considerable doubts about them, but rather than continue posting about the negatives, best to wait and hope for positive effects from aggressive buybacks, if indeed they do them.
The rest of your post is very reassuring, so fingers very crossed that your figures are roughly right because if they are the current share price is crazily cheap.
Something just doesn't ring true though. Why on earth are Aberdeen and Black Rock selling? We'll soon find out whether they are privy to negative news that the rest of us aren't!
otoh this one could be like London Asia Chinese - their shares also fell heavily ahead of their results last week and then nearly doubled in two days after them. Hardly surprising with NAV around 140p (from memory) compared with the pre results share price of just 22p. Their profits were worth around 10p a share. Too much to hope that we might see a similar share price reaction to strategic review news/results?|
|kenmitch: I saw that too and am sure this explains the recent falls and the huge falls in the share prices over the last year.
Re. the possibility of a share buyback. Dolphin Capital have spent over £20 million buying back their shares - and it has enhanced NAV by a mere 6p. Any positive effect on the share price of these buybacks looks to be very limited. Their shares too continue to trade a huge discount to NAV.
I had always thought that buying assets worth £1 for 30p was a no brainer. There is no point though continuing to assume that these buybacks are an effective way to spend surplus cash when evidence is clearly showing that it isn't.
Assuming they have got cash to spare,better to have a special dividend imo - or better still save it for assets from distressed sellers in the months ahead. But please don't waste it on buybacks.|
|nickcduk: Ive been adding a few more yesterday and today. Obviously disappointing that the share price is being trashed. My view on DTR hasn't changed though. There is very deep value in DTR around current levels.
Aberdeen have been dumping stock indiscriminately for a while now. Their motives for doing so remain unknown. I am not reading too much into it though. Their track record in DTR is hardly worth shouting about when you consider they purchased stock in the IPO and are nursing heavy losses.
The overhang shouldn't be too far from being cleared. Heavy volume today probably knocked a few more million out of their hands. Results are due in the next couple of weeks. It wouldn't surprise me in the slightest if they are working through disposals at present. That would explain the delay in results. It's not nice watching losses mount up but I am pretty sure we will be rewarded in due course.|
|crawford: Also here:
DAWNAY DAY TREVERIA (DTR)
I've been busily filling my boots with this stock for sometime. For Income Monkeys looking at avoiding the down turn in the UK commercial property market. They should consider Dawnay Day Treveria. This company is focused on investing in income generating German retail property. Launched in December 2005 the company has now completed its objective of having a portfolio of euro 2.3 billion. The company's share price has been hit by the down turn in sentiment towards property assets.
The dividend for 07/08 is projected to be 5.05 cents rising to 7 cents in 08/09equating to a projected 11% yield on its current share price of 64 cents. These levels of dividend are easily affordable from its rent roll of 59,319,000 euros for the 6 months ended 30 June 07. After expenses and interest net revenue should be approximately 42 million euros for the year before tax. This is enough free cash to pay up to a 6.6 cent annual dividend. The company's share price is easily covered by its' net assets. It had a NAV of 116c back in June which means the property income stock is now trading at over a 30% discount to its current share price. Too high for a company investing in a property market that has not seen the excessive over valuations experienced in the UK and therefore it is on a much firmer footing. With a growing revenue stream leading to a potential rising dividend, this looks like a great income generating stock to hold.|
Dawnay, Day Treveria share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange