|countryman5: UK wheat harvest is getting under way and yields are down 50% and bushel weights are terrible. Pig feed prices are rocketing and pig farmers are heading for the exit. Pig supplies will be short and expensive in 9 months time. This could be very serious for pig meat processors. How long before CWK share price follows the route of the Gaderene swine? |
|stdyeddy: I predict a significant fall here. Not only is the CWK price frothy, rising on minimal volumes but the following factors will be having an effect behind the scenes.
Food sales going down:
People are buying less and buying cheaper.
Cranswick's biggest contracts (apparently 60% of their business according to recent press) is with three supermarkets Sainsbury, Tesco, & Morrisons and these three are locked into a price war amongst themselves and more particularly Aldi and Lidl who are taking market share continuously. The supermarkets will be pressuring Cranswick's pricing.
Also, Aldi and Lidl are flexible businesses and will be exploiting the opportunity to buy cheap pork, ham, sausages etc due to the fall in open-market pig prices coming from the Russian ban on Euro imports and the flood onto the European market of unsold pork etc.
Have taken a short position today. |
|spob: the ft are saying the share price rise after these results was overdone
i disagree though
good results as expected
been waiting to buy in here on the cheap
doesn't look like i will get a chance now |
|m.t.glass: Cranswick brings home the bacon
14 July 2010, 9:48am
Cheaper pork prices have helped sausage maker Cranswick report a first-quarter rise in sales.
In the first three months revenues rose 19% on the same period last year to £198m, partly driven by its new Norfolk plant.
Chief executive Martin Davey said: 'A prime pork chop is much cheaper than an equivalent cut of beef or lamb.
'We have also seen pig prices fall from record highs a year ago.'
Net debt at the UK's largest pork supplier was £54m, down £10m on a year ago.
Shares closed up 11p at 871p
Cranswick sales rise as health-conscious Britons pick pork over beef
Cranswick, the pork, bacon and sausage group, which supplies food for celebrity chef Jamie Oliver's branded range, said it had made a strong start to the year with first-quarter sales rising by 19pc.
By Jamie Dunkley, City Reporter
Published: 5:39PM BST 13 Jul 2010
The company said total sales in the three months ending June 30 hit £198m - excluding revenue from its former pet business, which was sold last year.
In a short trading update, Cranswick added that its net debt now stood at £54m – £10m lower than the same period last year.
While there was a reduction in sales of continental products, there were substantial gains in fresh pork, bacon and sandwiches and continued growth in cooked meats and sausages," the company said.
"There were further modest increases in pig prices during the period, albeit they remain below the peak of last summer. The impact was absorbed through increased volumes and continued operating efficiencies. The board is confident in the continued successful long term development of the business."
Cranswick has benefited as Britons become more health conscious by eating less red meat and more pork and chicken. The company is also continuing to upgrade its operations and has invested in new abattoirs and it is expanding its sausage and bacon capacity.
It will supply all the meat and pasta for Oliver's range of fresh pork joints, pork steaks, marinated ribs, bacon, Italian charcuterie and fresh pasta dishes. There is also a children's sausage range.
Cranswick shares rose 11 to 871p.
Investment Column: Cranswick's shares bring home the bacon
Edited by Alistair Dawber
Wednesday, 14 July 2010
Our view: buy
Share price: 871p (+11p)
Underlying sales growth at the big four supermarkets have suffered a sharp slowdown this year, as lower food price inflation and a cautious consumer have taken their toll.
But sales have sizzled at Cranswick, which supplies pork to Tesco, Sainsbury's, Asda and Morrisons, and the Co-operative Group. Sales, which strip out the impact of acquisitions, rose by 6 per cent in the first quarter to 30 June, an upturn from the 4 per cent in the fourth quarter.
Cranswick was also boosted by consumers snapping up cooked meats and sausages during the football World Cup. The pork sausage specialist itself scored with the acquisition of CCF Norfolk, a supplier to Tesco, last June. CCF Norfolk's revenues increased by 13 per cent in the quarter, swelling Cranswick's total sales by 19 per cent. While the local pigs will not be grunting in delight, CCF Norfolk has already increased capacity from 10,000 to about 13,000 pigs a week.
Cranswick also plans to ramp up production at other facilities, including its Lazenby's gourmet sausage factory in Hull and at its cured bacon facility at Sherburn-in-Elmet, West Yorkshire.
Other tasty morsels for investors are that, despite higher pork input prices, Cranswick is not suffering any margin erosion, partly due to increased volumes and further operating efficiencies.
But not all of its numbers performed in the latest quarter, as it cited a "reduction" in international sales. However, overseas only account for a small proportion of its sales and we think that Cranswick's shares, which trade on a forward 2011 price-to-earnings ratio of 12.1, have legs. This is not only because it appears to have genuine momentum, but also as the company has a strong track record of growing its dividend and earnings per share. Therefore, we retain our buy recommendation after tipping Cranswick at 755p in February.
and similar stuff in the Yorkshire Post
Cranswick is relying on the trend towards pork as a cheap and healthy form of protein and towards its premium sausages, again seen as good value for stretched family budgets. A Jamie Oliver range is just appearing in the shops. Companies such as Cranswick are inevitably reliant on what used to be called the pork cycle. Farmers build herds, the price drops, herds are scaled back and so on. Cranswick believes that it can manage such fluctuations by further volume growth and greater efficiencies. The shares sell on about 12 times' this year's earnings. Not cheap, but worth picking up on weakness, according to the Times. |
|m.t.glass: Yep. Another good set of figures. It'll be interesting to see if good enough to lift the share price clear of the 790-820p channel it's been in for 12 weeks.. |
|le mass du pap: Today's online Sunday Herald
Morrisons stores 'warned over food hygiene'
By Judith Duffy, Health Correspondent
Environmental health inspectors noted breaches of rules at Paisley stores at centre of outbreak
TWO SCOTTISH supermarkets at the centre of an E coli outbreak which has claimed the life of a pensioner had been warned over contraventions of food hygiene procedures, the Sunday Herald can reveal.
Reports from environmental health officers have highlighted more than 20 concerns over standards at the Falside Road and Lonend branches of Morrisons in Paisley in the past three years. It is believed that cold cooked meats from the delicatessen counters at these stores are the most likely source of the deadly E coli 0157 infection which has so far affected a total of nine people.
Among the issues raised by inspectors from Renfrewshire Council were:
l Poor food-handling procedures which "must be addressed".
l Concerns over the safety of meat pies being displayed for sale for up to 12 hours at room temperatures.
l Raw eggs being stored on warm surfaces which could allow the growth of harmful bacteria.
l Opened foodstuffs in the butchery chill department which were not labelled with a use-by sticker, as required by the company policy.
l Concerns about the risk of cross-contamination between raw meat and poultry in the "reduced to clear" cabinet.
l Food temperature probes being encrusted with food debris.
The outbreak of E coli came to light last week after the death of 66-year-old MargaretRowan,fromPaisley.A further eight cases have been identified, the most recent of which emerged on Friday.Threepeople,including Rowan's 72-year-old husband Stephen, are still being treated in hospital.
While investigations into the exact source of the bug are continuing, health chiefs leading the outbreak control team have stated that cold cooked meatsfrom Morrisons' Lonend and Falside Road branches are "the most likely vehicles of infection".
An inspection of the Falside Road store in October 2005 resulted in seven contraventions of food safety regulations being noted, and in May this year a further 10 points were raised by inspectors. The most recent report stated that there were "some poor food-handling procedures which must be addressed prior to the next programmed inspection".
At the Lonend store, an inspection in August 2006 listed four contraventions of regulations, including the practice of storing raw eggs on a warm cooker surface, which could increase the potential for bacterial growth.
The latest report on the store, issued in March this year, noted two concerns including that "a variety of meat pies are cooked and thereafter displayed for sale for up to 12 hours".
It added: "I would be obliged if you would provide me with details of analysis for the products implicated in this practice which demonstrate that they comply with food safety requirements after being stored at ambient temperatures for 12 hours."
There portal so warned that the delivery temperatures of refrigerated vans were not being recorded, which could be a "potential shortcoming" in the company's food safety policy and "due diligence defence", which can be used to show that all reasonable practical steps have been taken to prevent an incident from happening if any legal action is taken.
Leading food safety expert Hugh Pennington,a former emeritus professor of microbiology at Aberdeen University, said that while the faults reported did not suggest an increased risk of E coli infection, it raised questions over the standards at the stores.
"They are not perfect reports and one would expect a big business like Morrisons to be able to deliver a pretty clean sheet," he said. "It is always disappointing to find a big firm falling down a bit."
Ishbel Mackinnon, the co-ordinator of Ecoli support group Haemolytic Uraemic Syndrome Help (Hush), said food safety procedures had been tightened since the world's worst E coli outbreak claimed 21 lives in Wishaw in 1996.
But she added: "At the end of the day these regulations are only as good as the people that are implementing them.
"I am concerned that perhaps more needs to be done in the way of training to make sure everyone is totally aware of what the regulations are and why things are being done."
A spokesman for Morrisons said it had a "strong history" of good hygiene compliance. "As is consistent with the norm for the industry, we receive regular routine assessment of our food preparation areas," he added. "Actions arising from the inspection reports are promptly and professionally taken,as would be expected of one of the UK's leading retailers."
An investigation by the Sunday Herald has also revealed that councils across Scotland are failing to carry out food hygiene inspections at the minimum required frequencies.A review of local authorities' food law enforcement services, which is being carried out by the Food Standards Agency, has identified this as an issue in 16 out of 24 councils audited to date.
Tom Bell, chief executive of the Royal Environmental Health Institute of Scotland, warned that a shortage of environmental health officers was an ongoing problem."There are still a number of students coming out of university without training places, and the number of vacancies in local authorities is not sufficient to meet the needs of the future," he said.
A spokeswoman for the Convention of Scottish Local Authorities (Cosla) said there was a range of reasons why some inspections were not carried out within the planned timescale, including staff being diverted to emergency incidents or not being able to get access to premises.
But she acknowledged that there have been "capacity problems" in the environmental health workforce in all parts of the UK and added that Cosla was working with councils to address workforce planning issues.
QED. The drop in Cranswick's share price from their association with this story has simply presented a buying opportunity. I expect the share price to rebound sharply as soon as the market realises Cranswick had nothing to do with it, whatsoever. |
|m.t.glass: Cranswick "hold"
Friday, May 18, 2007 10:29:22 AM ET
Panmure Gordon & Co
LONDON, May 18 (newratings.com) - Analysts at Panmure Gordon maintain their "hold" rating on Cranswick (ticker: CWK-GBX). The target price is set to 880p.
In a research note published this morning, the analysts mention that the company is likely to post its profits at £33 million and EPS at 51.5p for the full year. Cranswick indicated that its 4Q margins were negatively impacted by stiff price competition, which is expected to continue during the current year, the analysts add. The recent weakness in the company's share price might provide an attractive investment opportunity going forward, Panmure Gordon says. |
|m.t.glass: Cranswick directors take home the bacon
Thu 08 Mar 2007
LONDON (SHARECAST) - Shares in pork products specialist Cranswick have soared as the demand for gourmet type sausages has taken off in recent years.
Shares in the food group recently hit an all-time high after the group reported sales climbed by a fifth in the three months to December.
The price has come off in the market turbulence since then and dipped again today as a number of senior executives decided to cut their stakes.
Chairman Martin Davey sold 25,000 shares at 930p, raising £232,000. Finance director John Lindop and Bernard Hoggarth and Derek Black, who run the food and pet divisions respectively, also sold similar amounts at the same price.
Sales by Cranswick directors are rare. The previous significant disposals were nearly two years ago in June 2005, since when the share price has appreciated by about a third. |
|samg99: Dom - I'm also long; bought @ 550 a few days before results. Must admit I'm pleasantly surprised at how well it's going; results didn't seem that spectacular to me. But then, I never argue with a share price, especially if it's moving in my favour! |
|farmsted: The new factory in Hull has had a good reprot on Look North today, what has happened to the share price, keeps going south. |