Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Cleardebt Group LSE:CLEA London Ordinary Share GB0003083390 ORD 0.5P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  +0.00p +0.00% 0.25p 0.00p 0.00p - - - 0.00 05:00:10
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
General Financial 9.2 0.8 0.2 1.3 0.77

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Date Time Title Posts
15/3/201622:02ClearDebt IVA -new issue4,177.00
27/9/201108:45ClearDebt - Looking through the numbers-
14/8/200617:35Cleardebt 200611.00
10/7/200617:30Cleardebt.co.uk - Debt Analyser Completions6.00

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DateSubject
20/11/2012
16:50
glasshalfull: Empirestate - Don't know if you saw my earlier post on the thread? post 4081 I've been kicking the tyres here as first glance it looks v good value. My gut instinct was that fair price was around 3p given the convertible issue but the more I look the less I like about the company. Went through the notes in 2011 AR and I believe that this is just CEO David Mond's baby with no institutional investment apparent. 4 x family members including David effectively control the company and when I looked at notes re. Loans and Convertibles it appears that DM is taking a fair bit out the company via an over the top 10% interest rate. This debt effectively cost the company over £300k last year, I believe that market scepticism is effectively knocking the share price, which equally hurts him in the pocket given his 35% shareholding. Even now with convertibles repayable April 2013 then this will swallow £2.85m cash. Not only do holders of the convertibles receive 10% interest per annum (inc. DM with £500k of convertibles) but there is also a 25% bonus on top of the £2.3m loan which seems very generous on top of the 10% per annum...DM also has £600k loan outstanding following interim period. Let's therefore call it EV £7m when you add back cash on b/s Now factor in the interims which indicated that IVAs dropped in the latter 3 months of the interim period with loss of a lead source and my reading of the outlook statement indicated that they expected an increase in IVAs would eventually come through. With Equity Dev Pencilling in normalised EPS of 0.3p or £1.25m PTP then I'd suggest with debt added back as per EV above, then this suggests fair value around EV £10m in my book given shareholding of management and lending uncertainty...so roughly 40% upside from current 1.4p and I'd place fair value of c.2p until convertible issue resolved. Please note that Cleardebt management weren't prepared to send me any up-to-date info from Seymour Pierce, and ignored my queries regarding the convertible issue. Make of that what you will. I'll certainly not be investing here & would sum up as a company run by management for management. Regards GHF --- I was very critical of the company & today's results confirm my scepticism, I'm sorry to say. Results poor and IVA fall confirms that these are uninvestable given that I question management. I summed up my last post as a company run by management for management & feel vindicated in that stance. Hope the investment works out for you. Regards GHF
20/11/2012
12:47
empirestate: Saucepan, it certainly makes you wonder how the senior management in these firms get to their positions. The report is so badly structured and worded, i could have done a better job myself. As for keeping shareholders in the loop, it is a disgrace as well as the fact that there appears no concern as to what the share price is. never mind, live and learn but will hang on in here and stick them in the pants drawer with a few others.
26/6/2012
15:26
glasshalfull: I've been kicking the tyres here as first glance it looks v good value. My gut instinct was that fair price was around 3p given the convertible issue but the more I look the less I like about the company. Went through the notes in 2011 AR and I believe that this is just CEO David Mond's baby with no institutional investment apparent. 4 x family members including David effectively control the company and when I looked at notes re. Loans and Convertibles it appears that DM is taking a fair bit out the company via an over the top 10% interest rate. This debt effectively cost the company over £300k last year, I believe that market scepticism is effectively knocking the share price, which equally hurts him in the pocket given his 35% shareholding. Even now with convertibles repayable April 2013 then this will swallow £2.85m cash. Not only do holders of the convertibles receive 10% interest per annum (inc. DM with £500k of convertibles) but there is also a 25% bonus on top of the £2.3m loan which seems very generous on top of the 10% per annum...DM also has £600k loan outstanding following interim period. Let's therefore call it EV £7m when you add back cash on b/s Now factor in the interims which indicated that IVAs dropped in the latter 3 months of the interim period with loss of a lead source and my reading of the outlook statement indicated that they expected an increase in IVAs would eventually come through. With Equity Dev Pencilling in normalised EPS of 0.3p or £1.25m PTP then I'd suggest with debt added back as per EV above, then this suggests fair value around EV £10m in my book given shareholding of management and lending uncertainty...so roughly 40% upside from current 1.4p and I'd place fair value of c.2p until convertible issue resolved. Please note that Cleardebt management weren't prepared to send me any up-to-date info from Seymour Pierce, and ignored my queries regarding the convertible issue. Make of that what you will. I'll certainly not be investing here & would sum up as a company run by management for management. Regards GHF
16/1/2012
16:40
saucepan: Here is a copy of a post I have just made on the ZULU thread. Hopefully, it will be of interest here also: I mentioned my liking of ClearDebt (CLEA) some months ago, and some good critical debate followed. CLEA has come to life today; up 13%+, apparently stimulated by a 600,000 buy. Until recently, the share price has drifted down fairly relentlessly as a result of the severe general market weakness we have experienced, as well as a complete lack of news. I suppose it is just possible some astute investor is onto something ahead of the pack: so CLEA might be worth keeping an eye on. Here is a ShareScope snapshot. Note, particularly a Rolling P/E 2 of just 2.45 and a Rolling PEG 2 of 0.09! There are a couple of good broker research reports that are worth following up, for anyone remotely interested: http://www.cleardebtgroup.co.uk/download/Equity_Development_Research_27_September_2011.pdf http://www.cleardebtgroup.co.uk/download/Cleardebt_12_October_2011_Brokers_Note.pdf As I mentioned previously, what also impressed me was: * The quality of client feedback (degree of satisfaction) from an IVA comparison site - which quite frankly amazed me. No wonder CLEA is winning market share: http://www.iva.com/iva_companies/ClearDebt.asp * An impressive website (http://www.cleardebtgroup.co.uk/), company ethos, and impressive sounding management. CLEA also operates a "kaizen" improvement process - a model I have had some direct professional experience with myself and which I think is rather good. Looking at the chart, there are grounds for a believing that an uptrend has resumed.
07/9/2011
10:50
barnsey: moreforus i think your correct in that CLEA share price is holding up well but so it should be with the line of business they are in and i would have expected CLEA share price to be going the opposite direction for that very reason. i know CLEA is below the radar and the industry have had some bad press but the market is looking for growth and profits from AIM and a dividend helps so imo it is just a matter of time for fortunes to improve here.
17/6/2011
05:42
moreforus: sorry dkpetti you are right - i was dressing it up.. it's 3.64... http://www.cleardebtgroup.co.uk/download/Equity_Development_Research_27_May_2011.pdf Other factors that we think investors should note are that:  ClearDebt is increasing volume and, as per the preceding table, gaining market share (it had more IVAs passed in the first seven months of 2010/11 than in any previous full year)  We do not yet know how many ClearDebt IVAs were approved in the first quarter of 2011, but the January number (all January numbers are seasonally depressed as fewer are submitted over Christmas) was 77, a 285% increase on January 2010...  ClearDebt already had a lower rating on a PFER basis than Fairpoint prior to the announcement and its share price had already fallen by one-third from its 2011 peak in the last three months  Also, the decline in the number of IVAs approved and the lower average fee has a less geared impact on ClearDebt because it has low costs (both fixed and variable): the latest published data shows ClearDebt‟s EBITDA on IVAs as an attractive 39.6%. This is despite taking a larger proportion of the smaller IVAs that reduce fees and margins, although their conservative accounting policies reduce the difference reported at the pre-tax level. Earlier this month ClearDebt was rated at 6.7x its broker‟s forecast of 2011 eps but now it is only 4x. Despite its impending year end, it has seen no need to issue a warning in respect of those market expectations. Our opinion is that a slowdown in the market will merely slow ClearDebt‟s growth rather than cause an actual fall in its profits; also ClearDebt‟s reported profits will rise as the amortisation charge on the assets acquired from the administrator of "Relax" runs out. Even if earnings per share were to be 10% below the house broker‟s forecast, the current share price would be trading on less than five times eps for 2010-11. Conclusion Fairpoint has warned of a temporary one-off drop in earnings per share of, say, 3p (probably less) and its share price has declined by 31p, which I can safely say is excessive; ClearDebt has issued no warning, but its share price fell by one-eighth, which I think is irrational. We think that ClearDebt's current share price should be at least 3.6p, and preferably 4.5p, which is double the current price
08/6/2011
05:32
moreforus: Market has as it always does completely over reacted to FRP it pays a 4p divi and will still make substantive profits. From the equity denvelopment note:- Fairpoint has warned of a temporary one-off drop in earnings per share of, say, 3p (probably less) and its share price has declined by 31p, which I can safely say is excessive; ClearDebt has issued no warning, but its share price fell by one-eighth, which I think is irrational. We think that ClearDebt's current share price should be at least 3.6p, and preferably 4.5p, which is double the current price.
31/5/2011
08:47
moreforus: http://www.cleardebtgroup.co.uk/download/Equity_Development_Research_27_May_2011.pdf ClearDebt Group plc An uninformed reaction ClearDebt offers debt resolution services, principally IVAs and DMPs but also PTDs in Scotland, using a state-of-the-art web-based system for initial contact and individual supervision of all the later stages in the process, resulting in a higher success rate and lower overall costs than its competitors. The market has clearly over-reacted to Fairpoint‟s trading statement on Monday, 23 rd May. They issued a profits warning because the Coalition‟s "austerity" policies are resulting in fewer people declaring themselves insolvent than under the previous government and said that they expected profits to be "substantially lower" than previously forecast, but anticipated a significant recovery in 2012, with a doubling of its non-IVA revenues on top of a recovery in the IVA market.  Fairpoint‟s share price subsequently fell by one-third and, as a side-effect, ClearDebt‟s share price fell by one-eighth before recovering a few percent, although the latter has not needed to issue a profits warning.  Fairpoint mentioned two problems affecting it: the decline in the number of IVAs (when they had expected a small increase) and the smaller size of IVAs approved, and the income from them, relative to their business plan. It is probable that Fairpoint is also suffering from a downturn in the market for Debt Management Plans as DMPs are driven by the same economic sources as IVAs: other commentators also appear to think so, since the downgrade to forecasts exceed that attributable to the decline in IVAs.  We think that Fairpoint‟s share price fall is over-done and, even if it was not, we should still consider that ClearDebt‟s decline is excessive and verges on the irrational. For the sector as a whole the problems described by Fairpoint are ¬Ątemporary‟ and are expected to fade away towards the end of 2011 as cuts in public spending start to bite on unemployment levels and rises in interest rates make it harder/impossible for over-indebted consumers to keep up interest payments on their debt. Other factors that we think investors should note are that:  ClearDebt is increasing volume and, as per the preceding table, gaining market share (it had more IVAs passed in the first seven months of 2010/11 than in any previous full year)  We do not yet know how many ClearDebt IVAs were approved in the first quarter of 2011, but the January number (all January numbers are seasonally depressed as fewer are submitted over Christmas) was 77, a 285% increase on January 2010...  ClearDebt already had a lower rating on a PFER basis than Fairpoint prior to the announcement and its share price had already fallen by one-third from its 2011 peak in the last three months  Also, the decline in the number of IVAs approved and the lower average fee has a less geared impact on ClearDebt because it has low costs (both fixed and variable): the latest published data shows ClearDebt‟s EBITDA on IVAs as an attractive 39.6%. This is despite taking a larger proportion of the smaller IVAs that reduce fees and margins, although their conservative accounting policies reduce the difference reported at the pre-tax level. Earlier this month ClearDebt was rated at 6.7x its broker‟s forecast of 2011 eps but now it is only 4x. Despite its impending year end, it has seen no need to issue a warning in respect of those market expectations. Our opinion is that a slowdown in the market will merely slow ClearDebt‟s growth rather than cause an actual fall in its profits; also ClearDebt‟s reported profits will rise as the amortisation charge on the assets acquired from the administrator of "Relax" runs out. Even if earnings per share were to be 10% below the house broker‟s forecast, the current share price would be trading on less than five times eps for 2010-11. Conclusion Fairpoint has warned of a temporary one-off drop in earnings per share of, say, 3p (probably less) and its share price has declined by 31p, which I can safely say is excessive; ClearDebt has issued no warning, but its share price fell by one-eighth, which I think is irrational. We think that ClearDebt's current share price should be at least 3.6p, and preferably 4.5p, which is double the current price.
04/11/2010
09:01
moreforus: have you read the brokers notes? http://www.cleardebtgroup.co.uk/research.php http://www.cleardebtgroup.co.uk/download/Cleardebt_8_October_2010_Brokers_Note.pdf "Valuation undemanding On our revised figures CLEA is trading on FY11E PER of just 2.6x which we consider unjustified in view of the solid track record for delivering growth. The most relevant peer, Fairpoint (N/R), is trading on 5x FY11E. A PER of 5x CY11E for CLEA translates to a share price of 3.6p and underpins our target price." on a p/e of 10 that;s 6p... y.e is 8 months away... http://www.cleardebtgroup.co.uk/download/Equity_Development_Research_20_September_2010.pdf "The new year has started well so I am marginally increasing my forecast for 2010-11 to £1.9m pre-tax, leading to eps of 0.44p: even after the shares have been marked up to 1.65p in response to the news, this puts the shares on a PFER of 3.7x, an extreme undervaluation." if you can buy something for 2p that will be worth 6p and then 9p in 2012.... that is like a high risk oil or mine play with none of the risk...
11/10/2010
11:04
moreforus: http://www.cleardebtgroup.co.uk/download/Cleardebt_8_October_2010_Brokers_Note.pdf IVA winner This morning's announcement that ClearDebt has achieved an increase of 102% in the number of IVA's passed during 1QFY11 compared with last year, has prompted us to raise our forecasts. We are increasing our sales estimate by 14% to £8.1m driven by 80% more IVA's than we had forecast but lower levels of DMP's. EPS rises to 0.59p from 0.54p. The business continues to deliver robust results and we maintain our Buy recommendation and 3.6p price target. Strong growth in 1QFY11 new IVA's ClearDebt have confirmed that 355 IVA's were passed during 1QFY up by 102% compared with the same quarter in 2009. The strong performance, in what is typically a weak quarter, also represents a 33% increase over the previous quarter. Management is confident that their fresh leads sources will continue to provide significantly higher numbers of new IVA's. Raising our sales estimate for FY11 by 14% We have adjusted our revenue forecasts to increase the estimated number of new IVA's secured during FY11 to 2,000 (799 in FY10). However, we are lowering our expectations for DMP's. It appears that in this uncertain economic environment individuals facing financial difficulties are beginning to realise that the defined, 5 year duration for IVA's with payments based on affordability has advantages over the indeterminate DMP. Valuation undemanding On our revised figures CLEA is trading on FY11E PER of just 2.6x which we consider unjustified in view of the solid track record for delivering growth. The most relevant peer, Fairpoint (N/R), is trading on 5x FY11E. A PER of 5x CY11E for CLEA translates to a share price of 3.6p and underpins our target price. 3,4,5 Please see regulatory disclosure notes at the end of this document
Cleardebt share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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