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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Choicesuk | CHUK | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 0.50 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.50 | 0.50 |
| Top Posts |
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Posted at 21/8/2007 09:33 by mister md glad I got out too. Pretty bad they didn't issue a further warning to give people a further chance to get out - the chairman's statement on their investors section of website I remember was relatively positive/optimistic so I was almost tempted to get back in...Note to self: absolutely avoid any company with debts and declining business ! |
Posted at 26/4/2007 14:48 by mister md the RNS statements went from positive to negative all in 1 month, not a way to give investors confidence in the managementpicked up a few at 12.425p this morning for a purely speculative punt though |
Posted at 18/4/2007 08:30 by jtcod SporticusTo be fair to you, you have been trying to warn us for some time now. I am quite happy to admit that I was clearly wrong on Choices. The debt is far to high now for me to hang out for a turn around after a profit warning like todays. I have decided to take a very low offer for the lot at 19p because I believe there is a very real risk that the company will go down. I have also lost trust in this managements reporting of events. Regards to all investors and as ever, all in my somewhat 'tarnished' opinion.;- JT |
Posted at 07/4/2007 17:54 by goonertone MasurenguyCheers for the reply. PG seems to have a love/hate relationship with small investors depending on what company they meet him in. By the very nature of the type of companys he invests in there are going to be big losers but also the chances for big winners. I've got no grouch with him and he has been buying stales in CHUK since early 2006. It's a positive currently for me as there's no reason that I can see currently to have changed his view so it is a large lump of stock out of the marketplace. I haven't seen the GCI article but I think the story of supermarkets, online and more importantly downloading has been written into the current share price (Though thats only my view obviously) This certainly isn't for the fainthearted but if you've got more than a 6 - 12 month timeframe in mind for your investment then the upside if the turn round is acheived is much greater than the downside if it isn't fully succesful. All obviously my opinion and my opinion alone. GT |
Posted at 07/4/2007 16:30 by masurenguy Gyllenhammar is an active investor who likes to take significant stakes in small quoted companies that either trade at a discount to NAV or on very low PE ratios. Some of his current positions include 28% Coral Products, 22% Hartest Health, 20% VI Group, 15% Swallowfield and 10% Chapelthorpe. He doesn't always get it right but he is a shrewd operator who has had considerable success since becoming active in the UK market. If he builds a stake in a company then it is worth keeping an eye on them. On the other side of the coin there was a negative view on CHUK from GCI recently who came up with an Avoid rating partially based upon the fierce competition from supermarkets and other online companies. |
Posted at 03/4/2007 19:19 by jtcod Thanks Mas.Lads, the change of end of year was flagged up some time ago by the management. They haven't just made it up. I agree it does look odd but I believe they wished to balance the trading year, rather than having both Easter and Christmas coming in one half. Edmund Yes still holding MXP. Did you buy in the end? As I said earlier, I don't blame any investor for not investing in CHUK right now. 85 % gearing is too much for an entry point imo and as you say, right now on paper this is not £1 notes for 50p. I think it is worth 63p and I'm already in, so I am not going to sell out cheap when I believe the debt is managable on a x serviceability assessment. Can't say it's one I'll be particularly proud of though, even if it does come good. Regards JT |
Posted at 03/4/2007 16:41 by jtcod Found the link.Mas The gearing for Homebuy at the time was 137 % times assets and that was 'with' Intangibles. Without intangibles it was 238%!!!! You sound like an intelligent investor, so you must have known the risks. Please respect that this is the CHUK thread and whilst Homebuy had a cross directorship link, I would at least appreciate it if you could post 'links' where possible when making your point, rather than plastering another companies details over our thread. Cheers JT |
Posted at 03/4/2007 16:03 by masurenguy JTCod - 3 Apr'07 - 14:15 - 354 of 354: Masurenguy: Michael Riding is on board because of his background, high level contacts and reputation with LloydsTSB Plc. This (hopefully) should give us added protection. In times of high debt levels, the business plan may be sound but it is only as sound as the relationship with their bankers. Right now that's very important imo. I believe that Homebuy had triple digit gearing and an awful balance sheet (Significant intangibles I think). CHUK has a better balance sheet I believe, though it's not great. I share your bewilderment as to why Mr Riding would have bought shares at such a time though..................... JT - well just review the following ! .................... Chairmans summary on 13/7/06 on the Homebuy year end. Note the finance comments .................... Four days later, on 17/7/06 he and his Deputy invest £289K in Homebuy shares. Whilst everyone is responsible for their own investment decisions, these year end comments, followed by further share purchases, created an impression that everything was progressing well. .................... Just 24 days later, out of the blue, the Board requested a share suspension. This was The Times comment at that stage: The Times August 11, 2006 Homebuy mystifies shareholders by requesting a halt in trading By Nick Hasell CONFUSION reigned at Homebuy Group, as the AIM-listed consumer finance group asked for its shares to be suspended amid refinancing talks only weeks after directors bought stock for £289,000. The prelims last month from the profitable Walsall-based company - which hires out electrical equipment to sub-prime customers on a rent-to-buy basis - were regarded as upbeat, a view underpinned by the accompanying purchase of 125,000 shares at 231½p by non-executives. So investors were perplexed yesterday when trading in the shares was halted at 207½p pending the outcome of discussions concerning further funding arrangements. .................... Just 5 weeks later they filed for administration .................... JT - this company has been on my Watchlist for a while. Part of the evaluation is not only trading performance & forward prospects but also gearing, cashflow & management. You say the new Chairman is on board because of his connections and reputation. Well those factors did not stop Homebuy from going into liquidation. He had been Chairman for at least 10 months before the receivers were called in, The fact of the matter is that despite "his background, high level contacts and reputation with LloydsTSB Plc" the incumbent banks would not provide any further funds and no alternative banks would either, resulting in suspension, administration and liquidation. Since this all happened within a few weeks of a very positive year end statement and further personal share purchases, it should perhaps raise questions either about judgement or perhaps the understanding of the financial predicament that the company was facing. I find it hard to believe that its financial position could have changed so dramatically in the 24 days between 13/7 and 10/8. This wasn't a manufacturing company that suddenly and unexpectedly lost a big order or large customer ! This creates a 'credibility gap' for me and I'm not inclined to just airily dismiss with 'bewilderment' what happened there. Credibility is always a key factor and now that the founder is also stepping down from the daily running of the business, this becomes even more important. If we add the increased debt and the current gearing that has just been reported, then the sum total of all of these factors inclines me to back away from this altogether. I know that you are heavily invested here so I wish you good luck. |
Posted at 03/4/2007 14:15 by jtcod Interims Comment:Debt: I had expected a drop of maybe £1-2m but debt has increased again and whilst at the same time the balance sheet assets have fallen further. I make it about £11.5m debt at the turn, though I would expect debt levels of nearer £10m now, (following the PS3 launch late March.) If I am right we would have gearing of around 75 % about now. Which I consider risky and in need of reduction below 50 % as soon as can be achieved. Masurenguy: Michael Riding is on board because of his background, high level contacts and reputation with LloydsTSB Plc. This (hopefully) should give us added protection. In times of high debt levels, the business plan may be sound but it is only as sound as the relationship with their bankers. Right now that's very important imo. I believe that Homebuy had triple digit gearing and an awful balance sheet (Significant intangibles I think). If I am wrong I apologize but it was a couple of years ago when I last looked at them. If I am right, it wouldn't have allowed their bankers very much leeway. CHUK has a better balance sheet I believe, though it's not great. I share your bewilderment as to why Mr Riding would have bought shares at such a time though. Cash Flow: Negative for H1 but pleased to hear it is now positive. Given the right scenario, cashflow can be very good in this type of business. For instance, positive cashflow from operating activities averaged £9.4m pa over the 4 year period 2002-2005. I think it is not beyond the bounds of possibility that debt could be reduced to sub £6m by this time next year. Reduction of Overheads: This was good news also. Improved from £3m pa to £6.9m pa in just 7 months. Teather & Greewood the in house broker had £3m profit net of interest forecast for next year, prior to this interim announcement. That equated to EPS of 11.7p. I would assume they had some knowledge of additional overhead reductions but I doubt this incorporated the full £6.9m savings. I do not have their calculations but I would expect interest costs of £750,000 next year would have been allowed for. Margins: Good news again. "Stabilised margins" Sales Mix: 40 % games. In a games market that has just seen 2 of the 3 major players launch next-gen machines, this is good progress and an important move imo. The PS3 launch has now been heralded as a success in the worlds 3 main consumer continents, which bodes well for their 'BlueRay' format and it's future sales curve. I am impressed also by the 6.5 % market share of the PS3 launch. Not bad for a new player. Well done Choices. Value: Right now, until the debt starts falling back below £7m I'd say that CHUK is worth about 63p. Until we know what the extra £3.4m overhead reduction can deliver, I am discounting it completely and going with the T&G £3m+ £0.75m interest add back. Calculation: 7/2008 Forward earnings assumption of £3.75m profit before interest, less 28 % tax x 8.5 £11.5m Debt = £11.45m divided by 18.1m shares = 63p Feb 2008 alternative assumption: Based upon increased profit forecast of £4.75m before interest for July 2008, reflecting increased overhead savings and debt reduction (assuming £7m debt as of Feb 2008) = 122p Obviously, tax levels will be pretty much zero for a while but I prefer to allow for full taxation in the valuation calcs. Final Thoughts: I think the management is doing all the right things in what continues to be a tough market. I also think 'cashflow from operating activities' should really kick in over the next 12 months due to the significant cost overhead reduction and low capex levels going forward. Offloading the other 29 marginal and unprofitable sites should accelerate cashflow further. The debt ratio has deteriorated due to the double wammy of higher debt and lower assets. Frankly, I do not blame anyone not prepared to invest in shares with an 85 % gearing and the prudent investor would not enter this stock prior seeing positive news on debt reduction imo. I'm already in and with a sizeable chunk of shares, so I don't have a lot of choice anyway unless I wished to trash the price. Debt servicing on the 'lower earnings assumption' (above) should be approx. 5x imo. I think that is manageable and so I'm happy to hold anyway. As ever all IMHO and DYOR JT |
Posted at 23/1/2007 13:40 by steve133 hmmm materially in my book means just below so nothing to dance about but i am wondering how much writedowns are in that loss.if the case is not alot we have not moved that far but on the plus side 1.no world cup this year 2.the gaming section should boost profits 3.no more large write downs *prays* 4.ANDROMEDA should show a full year £££ 5.cost savings 6.not sure on this but debt levels down a fair amount but all the above should take a while to kick in and investors know this i myself wont be topping up because i can use the money elsewere and get in cheaper later on.but feel free jt to buy the last few % then maybe we can get you on the board to keep an eye on them. |
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