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| Share Name | Share Symbol | Market | Stock Type |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bayfield | BEH | London | Ordinary Share |
| Price Change | Price Change % | Share Price | Last Trade
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|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.00 | 0.00% | 13.00 | 01:00:00 |
| Open Price | Low Price | High Price | Close Price | Previous Close |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13.00 |
| Top Posts |
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Posted at 15/1/2013 22:43 by ultrapunch stef77. you say .... "our current combined market value is $154 millions"Where do you get that figure from?! BEH was valued at around £45m when suspended, or US$72m. We don't know what Trinity is valued at because it's not yet listed. I can only guess that you are valuing Trinity at 55/45 times the US$72m of BEH at suspension which gives US$90m. That gives a combined value of US$162m. You are just guessing, I'm afraid, on the combined Mkt Value since Trinity wasn't listed when BEH was suspended. The trouble with Trinity is that it can't "book" the assets of the majority of the fields it produces from as 2P since it leases those fields from Petrotrin. Oil companies are valued on 2P assets as well as production. Trinity has much more production than BEH, but a lot less 2P. I also suspect that BEH has a lot more exploration potential than Trinity. BEH needed bailing out and Trinity need 2P assets and exploration potential. It's probably a good merger for both parties. I agree that the ex-Burren management, led by O'Sullivan messed up big time. They couldn't repeat their previous success. |
Posted at 19/10/2012 19:06 by mojomonkey Does anyone remember the T&T Governments consolidated monthly bulletin that covered the period January-July 2012? I cant find the link anymore but I printed it out in full a few months ago. Reading through it tonight I was shocked to see the following figures for Trinity.In that document (Table 1A-Crude Oil & Condensate Production in 2012 (BOPD) BEH and TRINITY were shown to have the following bopd in the months:- Jan-12 BEH 869 TRIN 615 Feb-12 BEH 1,157 TRIN 586 Mar-12 BEH 1,043 TRIN 574 Apr-12 BEH 1,578 TRIN 577 May-12 BEH 1,588 TRIN 575 Jun-12 BEH 1,708 TRIN 508 Jul-12 BEH 2,040 TRIN 493 Average over the 7 month period stated as being BEH 1,427 and Trinity 561. These figures do not even come close to the bopd that we have been told that Trinity are producing. Anyone got any idea as to what has caused the huge difference? GLA |
Posted at 16/10/2012 22:42 by ultrapunch It's definitely not a merger of equals, stef77. Trinity are effectively taking over BEH. They will end up with 55% of the shares and from what I can gather their executives will be running the show. It's a takeover, not a merger, whatever gloss BEH puts on it in yesterdays RNS.All we know about Trinity is whats on their web site. We know they are currently producing more oil than BEH and we know of their licences, but we don't know their 2P reserves, what cash they have, or what debt, if any, they have. We don't know if BEH had any other offers apart from this Trinity RTO. We don't know how desperate Trinity were to acquire BEH so we don't know if BEH were in a position to extract the best possible price for it's shareholders from the deal. O'Sullivan and Pannikov couldn't repeat their Burren success at BEH. They were effectively a busted flush when they had to pull a proposed placing back in June because of lack of institutional interest. |
Posted at 03/10/2012 16:27 by ultrapunch The upper BB for BEH is currently 35p and dropping. It's not impossible that the BEH share price could get over 30p again within the next few days. Unlikely, IMO, but it definitely would if a bid came along!!!! The 8.5 forms keep coming. Somebody must be doing due diligence on BEH otherwise if they hadn't received any interest then surely the 8.5 forms would have been stopped by now?Even without a bid I reckon a bounce in the BEH share price is due. How high that bounce would be without a bid, or some other corporate action, who knows? I think BEH is one to hold onto. I've an idea that any bid would be over 35p. Pronbably well over. I've an idea one can't be far off otherwise the 8.5 forms wouldn't keep coming. EDIT: euclid. Personally I don't believe that the BEH share price will drop back below todays intraday low. Why? Well I think the situation has improved overall since the BEH share price was circa 15p around 3 weeks ago. Ok the current net production is a bit less than anticipated at the end of September, but that is more than compensated for by a circa 35% increase in the price they are receiving for their oil, IMO. Also a persistent seller (Hatcher, a previous employee with circa 7m shares) who depressed the share price for months whilst the daily volume was low has presumably departed. |
Posted at 30/9/2012 18:44 by ultrapunch From friday's results RNS."The Rowan Gorilla III rig is not scheduled to be available before November 2012 and following its release by Niko it is expected that the rig will be assigned by Bayfield and Niko to a third party operator in Trinidad for a period of at least six months. As a consequence, Bayfield will have no further liability under the rig contract except in relation to any future wells to be drilled at its option." Yes, stef77, but it still has to find US$62.5m to fund those 5 remaining exploration wells if it wants to continue to explore the Galeota field. If it doesn't it could lose the Galeota licence, though it did manage to re-negotiate the terms of the Galeota licence so it has until March 2015 to drill the 5 wells. I'm pretty certain that BEH will want to start drilling the first of those remaining 5 wells in early 2013. Also BEH and Niko managed to hire the Gorilla 111 between on a long term contract and save US$8m in the process according to the AIM admission document. I'm assuming it must have cost BEH to get out of that contract?! Perhaps BEH have made a payment to the rig owners which they will get back if they do use those 4 slots by a certain date? There could be future liabilities for BEH tied up with the 4 remaining slots for the Gorilla 111 rig that are not accounted for in the US$34m current liabilities up to the end of 30/6/12. I wonder what the current liabilities will be in the next set of results (to the 31/12/12)? Perhaps that's why the Trinidadian authorities changed BEH's oil revenue terms from WTI-17.5% to BRENT-9.5%? To give them a chance of making a profit and give them a chance of staying afloat. It can't be in the best interests of the Trinidad and Tobago Government for BEH to go bust!! Especially as I've an idea that the state owned Petrotrin are getting free carry on their 35% interest for all of the US$70m CAPEX (plus US$10-15m extra) being spent on the Trintes field plus the US$87m being spent on the Galeota exploration. |
Posted at 14/9/2012 12:02 by ultrapunch PJ 1 14 Sep'12 - 10:31 - 791 of 799 Are BEH in any position to dictate any Sale price? I think they are PJ 1. I was looking back at the Seymour Pierce broker note on BEH from February. They highlighted the price RRL paid for their onshore 2P in Trinidad back in 2011. Applying a discount to that figure because BEH's 2P is offshore they arrived at a valuation figure of circa US$8 per bbl for BEH's Trintes 2P. That's £5 per bbl. Multiply that by the current 2P of 19MMbbls for Trintes and you get £95m. That's equivalent to 44p per share. I think the Trintes field is worth a lot more than 44p to a potential bidder especially since that Trintes 2P is capable of significant increase with the 4 well development program ongoing (1 of those wells is already producing 536bopd). Add in 16p per share (£35m) for the Galeota prospects, which seems cheap since EG8 has already made a discovery and you end up at 60p per share. That ignores any potential value to the S.African interests. Will they receive a bid? I think so. Repsol, for starters, seem to be keen on the Trinidad region. I can see BEH being taken over for a lot more than 60p, if it receives a bid. I think Trintes is worth at least 60p on it's own to a bidder. The WTI crude price is staying high. The quantitative easing announced yesterday should help the USA economy recover which is obviously key in keeping WTI high. The only major negative I can see is though Petrotrin have agreed that BEH don't have to complete the 7 well Galeota program until March 2015 (2 wells already drilled and 1 to spud this year) as far as I can tell they have to complete the remaining 4 wells in 2013 as per their contract for the Gorilla 111 rig. Those 4 wells will cost US$50m which BEH don't have at the moment. We don't know what penalty clauses are contained in that contract. Hence BEH need to either negotiate an extension to the contract and then depend on revenues earned from the Trintes field to pay for the 4 wells OR they need to raise finance such as via a placing OR something like a farm in OR they can agree to be taken over if they receive a suitable bid. The BEH BoD is not over a barrel yet. The WTI price is high so they are earning a good price for their oil. So yes I think the BoD are in a good enough position to hold out (or dictate) a good takeover price, if they receive one. |
Posted at 09/9/2012 18:22 by ultrapunch stef77. Average Trintes production for 2011 was 1197bopd. 778bopd was the average Trintes production NET to BEH for 2011 (65% stake).BEH revenue for 2011 was US$22m. That means BEH received US$77.5 per bbl of oil on average during 2011. However cost of sales was US$24.8m giving a gross loss of US$2.8m. Because of relatively fixed costs like OPEX they really need to increase production to make any significant profit whatsoever during 2012. Admin Expenses were US$5.7m for 2011. Total loss for 2011 was US$14.3m. CAPEX for 2011 was US$41m. The 2 Galeota wells this year would have cost US$25m. Total CAPEX for Trintes was originally estimated at US$70m. The problem with the Alpha platform caused an extra US$10-15m being spent on another platform as mentioned by here and there earlier. Add US$15m to US$70m gives a total CAPEX for Trintes of US$85m. The US$41m spent on CAPEX during 2011 was probably all on Trintes since both Galeota wells were spud in 2012. That leaves another US$44m CAPEX to be spent on Trintes. CASH at 31/12/11 was US$59.4m. US$25m CAPEX spent on 2 Galeota wells this year leaves US$34.5m. How much of the remaining Trintes CAPEX outstanding of US$44m has been spent so far this year? So by my reckoning BEH has remaining cash of US$34.5m LESS CAPEX spent on Trintes so far this year. That's before any oil revenues are added and Admin Expenses etc are subtracted. Assuming most of OPEX is fixed I have only increased it to US$26m for 2012 for my following calculations. That means, by my calculation, BEH have to receive revenue of at least US$26m to make a gross profit on the income account for 2012. To make a positive contribution to cashflow I reckon they will need revenue of US$35m since admin expenses could be US$6m and other expenses could add another US$3m. If BEH average US$80 per bbl for their oil in 2012 that means their average production for 2012 needs to be at least 1233bopd. I wouldn't be surprised if they achieved an average in excess of 2000bopd in 2012. Say we stick with 2000bopd. At US$80 per bbl that gives gross revenue of US$58.5m. That should leave a gross profit of US$32.5m for 2012 (US$58.5m - US$26m) or a profit after subtracting admin expenses etc of US$23.5m. That would be before taxes. The remaining 5 Galeota wells need another US$62m. I estimated above that BEH had CASH of US$34.5m remaining after the CAPEX on the 2 Galeota wells this year. Add, say US$15.5m cashflow, after taxes, from the oil sales and that gives US$50m. However you have remaining CAPEX of US$44m outstanding for Trintes. We don't know how much of that will be spent this year. However in the longer term, by my reckoning, that only leaves US$6m after Trintes CAPEX to go towards the US$62m CAPEX remaining for the 5 Galeota wells. A shortfall of US$56m by my calculations. BEH will spud one Galeota well this year. They had 2 further slots for this year, but they seem confident that they can offload one onto a 3rd party. That leaves 4 remaining for 2013. We don't know the details of the contract BEH signed for the Gorilla 111 rig and the penalty clauses it contains, however if BEH can average at least 5000bopd during 2013 and the crude price remains high then BEH could make a pre-taxes profit of just over US$100m assuming it receives US$80 per bbl. Even after subtracting taxes that leaves more than enough money to pay for the remaining outstanding Galeota CAPEX and Trintes CAPEX. Happy days are here again!!!! |
Posted at 09/9/2012 13:07 by ultrapunch Interesting post stef77. However "here and there" makes a very valid point in his latest post. BEH estimated total CAPEX at US$70m + US$87m = US$157m in the admissions document, but as "here and there" posts you have to add another US$10-15m to that figure in upgrading the Charlie platform because as he mentioned in an earlier post the Alpha platform was a "rust bucket" that was not the extra cost necessary to bring it up to an acceptable standard.That extra cost plus the cashflow shortfall from the reduced production has undoubtably put funding pressure on BEH. They obviously couldn't make good that shortfall from a placing. Hence the company has been looking at other ways to make good that shortfall inxcluding putting the company up for sale. Petrotrin extending the Galeota licence obligations from 21/4/13 to March 2015 has saved the company from imminent danger of imploding and the company still reckons it can drill the remaining Galeota wells by the end of 2013 which is comforting. I only came across BEH around 5-6 weeks ago. I've never heard of them before. However despite a few worries yesterday when I hadn't realised Petrotrin had extended the licence obligations until March 2015 I like what I see and I think BEH is woefully undervalued at the current £40m Mkt Cap. I to like the way the BoD have reacted to the problems they are facing, steff77. The fact that 2 months on the company is still issuing form 8.5's indicates to me that a complete takeover is very much on the cards. Presumably due diligence on BEH is currently being done. PS. I'm learning all the time about BEH and appreciate "here and there's" posts highlighting the problems experienced with increasing the Trintes production rates since the IPO and the possible pitfalls of investing BEH. However I'm now more than ever convinced that I shall make a decent short term profit from BEH. Possibly due to W Hatcher keeping the share price depressed?! |
Posted at 04/9/2012 23:51 by ultrapunch triples and Orient. The Mkt Cap was circa £200m in July 2011 and around £180m just 6 months ago. However a lot of water has flowed under the BEH bridge since then and BEH has failed to live up to investors initial high expectations. A £100m Mkt Cap is not unreasonable, valuing the currently producing 2P reserves at US$8 per bbl in the ground with no value attached to BEH's exploration assets. That might be a bit steep, even for producing assets in Trinidad, bearing in mind AIM oilers in generally are currently very much out of favour with investors, but I live in hope!! I have a feeling that some kind of corporate action, to be announced in September, will change investors perception of BEH for the better. Fingers crossed.EDIT. On reflection it doesn't make sense for me to ignore the value of BEH's exploration assets. If you attach, say a £40m value to BEH's exploration assets in Trinidad and S. Africa then BEH's 2P producing assets are only being valued at US$5 per bbl in the ground, which is preposterously low for Trinidad!! Are BEH's exploration assets worth £40m? Well NEW is valued at £25m and exploration assets in Belize and Denmark are all it has. It only has around 20% of the Belize licence and similar in Denmark. At best the Belize licence only has a 20-25% CoS. Similar for Denmark. If we concentrate on Trinidad and Belize since S. Africa and Denmark are very early stage projects, BEH has a much higher percentage (65%) of it's Trinidad licence and a much higher CoS because of previous wells drilled on the licence by previous operators. Also Trinidad appears to be much more politically stable than Belize. On reflection if the current Mkt Cap of NEW values it's exploration prospects at £25m why shouldn't BEH's exploration prospects be valued at £40m? Triples, Orient and oilbuy, the more I think about it the more I believe that a £100m Mkt Cap undervalues BEH significantly. It might take some kind of corporate action in the short term to get to that £100m, but in the longer term value will definitely out. |
Posted at 04/9/2012 17:14 by ultrapunch Mojomonkey, Hatcher had circa 7m shares in early June according to the BEH web site, when it was last updated. That's in excess of 3%, so how can he have been selling before June of this year?? It's IMPOSSIBLE, my friend, because with more than 3% of the shares he would have had to inform the market, if he sold, via an RNS. Look back through all the BEH RNS's since BEH listed. You wont find any RNS's stating Hatcher had sold any shares!! Hence he has never sold any BEH shares before June of this year.Obviously now he has gone below 1%, in this special period, he wont have to issue any more RNS's. Hatcher has obviously been keeping the BEH share price artificial depressed during this period of impending corporate action, when you would have expected the share price to rise!! Once he has completely disposed of his circa 7m shares watch the BEH share price take off. Hatcher held on to all his shares since BEH listed until the announcements from BEH during the early summer. Does anybody know when and why he left BEH? Has he been selling because of disappointment with the recent performance of BEH or is it just sour grapes on his part at leaving BEH? |
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