||EPS - Basic
||Market Cap (m)
|blackpoolsteve: Agreed gfrae,share price decline over the last 5 years speaks volumes. I rest my case compared with SRE. Board are a disgrace|
|stemis: Just updating my records. Current NAV is 28.1p of which cash amounts to 6.6p. Share price now 12.9p so a 54% discount. The key thing of course is the valuation of the two remaining investments; Superstoy and Unistream, which have been heavily written down. In the current environment it's hard to value the two businesses but they are both profitable and seem well established.
The board have dispensed with the investment manager and have £2.5 million in the bank so should be able to eke out the time till conditions improve. Hopefully they are cutting costs back to a minimum. I can't see how it costs £91k to audit a company that doesn't do anything (or indeed spend £34k on marketing)!!
I'd be hopeful we'll eventually see at least net asset value here, so it's a hold. Having got about 70% of my original investment back on the tender it's not a big exposure anyway. Let's see what the interims show.|
|envirovision: So 40% taken at 27.5p and remaining 60% returns say 18p total (if all goes well)
This seems to imply the current share price is to high, should be trading more like 22.5p|
|inki: Simon Thompson's recc - main points......
That's because even after a series of asset write-downs on Aurora's remaining three investments, Aurora's net asset value per share was still 40.7p at the end of September 2013, albeit down from 55p in March 2013. To put the value on offer into some perspective, with the company's shares trading on a bid offer spread of 19.5p to 20.5p, then based on 74.7m shares in issue Aurora's market capitalisation is £15.3m, or half the last reported book value of £30.2m.
That is quite an extreme share price discount once you factor in a series of transactions that have taken place since September to bolster the cash pile. It's also worth flagging up that the company is cash rich and is not a forced seller of its assets, so can bide its time to attain the best prices from its asset disposal programme.
It seems to have been completely missed by investors that Aurora's board have stated in a release last month that they will be making an announcement on a further return of capital. It's only reasonable to assume that this will be carried out by the same tender offer process as last year with shares in the company being purchased most likely at the March 2014 year-end net asset value.|
|stemis: Thompson says "This means Aurora's cash could potentially swell further to £21.7m by this time next year, the equivalent of 29p per share....."
That's assuming the maximum earn out on OSG of £3.3m. The directors (quote annual statements) think its more likely to be £1.1m. Adjust for that and you get £19.5m which is 26p a share, a bit short of the 32.1p current share price.|
|stemis: Having thought about it over the weekend I've taken a position in Aurora.
According to the results presentation:-
they are in a sales process for Flexbank. It's valued at 14p per share and as 100% shareholder they are not reliant on other shareholders to complete the sale. It's valued at a slight discount to NAV s hopefully they can get NAV +.
Their investment in Flexbank + cash + cash in escrow waiting signing of accounts = 21.4p. News on the first and a 18p return of cash would send share price upwards to maybe 37p (up 15%). Could happen anytime.
They also hold DIY retailer Superstroy. Looks eminently saleable to another chain because of its position in Urals. Valuation is a reasonable 7.7 x ebitda. Timing is the key because they are a minority shareholder but this would yield another 14p which with another 5p from sale of OSG would cover balance of 37p with Unistream in for free.
Doesn't look much downside.|
|stemis: I calculate that the current share price is equivalent to 39p, adding back the impact of the capital return so its hard to say the price is weak. The market doesn't seem to believe the valuation of the assets, not helped presumably by the significant falls in 2012/13 and slightly mixed wrtie up on each of its investments. Other than the receipt of the £2.9 m in escrow waiting signing of the 2012/13 accounts of OSG its hard to see where the newsflow is going to come this year. Is there any reason to hold at the moment (other than the market suddenly waking up to what has been apparent for a long time)?|
|gingerplant: He's the main "value" tipster for the Investor's Chronicle who recently pointed out that Aurora's shares trade at less than half net asset value, and the board plan to demerge its major investment and list it separately on Aim in a few months' time.
He said the company's 92.8% owned subsidiary, OSG, which plans to list on Aim after Aurora has published its full-year results to end March is a flotation that will appeal to UK investors since OSG is a fast-growing and profitable records management provider with operations in Russia, Poland, Ukraine and Kazakhstan. OSG's core market is Russia, accounting for 70% of its income, where it is a market leader servicing the needs of international and regional blue-chip clients in the banking, telecoms, retail, insurance and service sectors. The bulk of the remaining revenues comes from Poland. The business involves the processing, scanning and safe storage of documents and data through online technology and a network of specialised service facilities.
OSG reported cash profits of £1.7m on revenues of £11m in the six months to end September. It's fast-growing as turnover rose by 19% in the half year, which translated to a £500,000 rise in cash profits given the operational gearing of the business - which show no sign of slowing.
With annualised profits around £3.4m and growing fast, a carrying value of £29.9m on the 92.8 per cent stake held by Aurora looks sensible. The Aim listing of OSG should also provide the company with some significant gains - since making its initial investment of £5.3m for a 37.1 per cent stake in 2006, Aurora has made further investments of £9.2m to take complete control of OSG as well as providing loan facilities of £3.4m.
The investment case becomes even more interesting when you consider that Aurora's £29.9m stake in OSG, worth 25p a share, accounted for 43% of the company'sNAV of £70m, or 62.3p a share, at the end of September. Factor in cash of £2.1m on the balance sheet and £700k of property assets up for sale, and the current share price is virtually covered entirely by property, cash and that stake in OSG.
That leaves holdings in three remaining investments in the price for free, including a 26% stake in Unistream Bank and a 24.3% stake in Superstoy, a leading DIY retailer in Russia. These are in Aurora's books at £13.6m and £14.3m, respectively, or £28m in total - but could be worth 24.8p a share.
There could even be a cash distribution from Aurora's wholly owned subsidiary Flexinvest Bank.
All in all - excellent value!|
|davebowler: Aurora Russia Limited (AURR / BUY / 30.125p) Year end trading update
n Aurora Russia has provided a trading update ahead of its year end results for the year ended 31 March 2012, which are expected to be released at the end of June
n The Board remains committed to a clear exit strategy for the Company's investments and whilst they note that the IPO market remains "lack lustre", the Company and Manager are currently in discussions with potential strategic and financial buyers for the assets. Advisers have been appointed as part of the process.
n With the support of the Board, the Manager continues to work on the Company's clear exit strategy for its investments. In keeping with the strategy of the Company and to reflect the timeline indicated regarding the disposal of the investments, the Manager agreed with the Board to an amendment to the management agreement regarding its notice period. The notice period has now been reduced from a rolling two year notice period to a rolling six month notice period with notice able to be given no earlier than 31 October 2013.
n The manager reports that Russian economic continue to perform well relative to the UK and other developed markets and that each of the companies investments continues to make good progress, with each of the investments demonstrating strong revenue growth.
n Given that the company is in realisation mode, we believe this represents a reasonably positive update. Whilst it is disappointing that exits via IPOs look less likely, discussions with potential strategic buyers are underway and advisers have been appointed. In our view this could also represent quicker route to realisations. The renegotiation of the management contract is another positive, which should have a beneficial impact on the costs associated with an eventual wind up.
n Realising disposals at NAV is the key challenge although with the shares now trading at a 57% discount to their 30 September 2011 NAV of 70.1p and underlying investments appearing to trade well, we believe there is still upside to the current share price. BUY.|
|darcon: This looks to me like a positive development and I agree with Envirovision and Loobrush. I am going to have a look at it in more detail and update the header with the latest info over the Xmas break.
Russian Central Bank governor now talking of 5% potential growth in the economy next year. Things are looking up and so will the AURR share price. Patience is required.
As for the issue of participating in the placing. I don't think retail investors should presently be too bothered about that. If they want they can increase their stakes prior to closing of the placing by 50% by buying at less than the 40 pence price. The 40pence placing price looks like a fair deal for the larger institutional investors. If any of them tried to increase their exposure to Russia as Standard Life did a few months ago by increasing its stake in AURR the share price would shoot up owing to the low liquidity.|
Aurora Russia share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange